When will restrictions finally end?

[Huntergreed]

It’s clear that, with this new strain, we are going to be living under even tougher restrictions for many months to come yet. With much uncertainty, it’s often difficult to see a way out from the never-ending, ever-changing rules and laws which restrict our freedoms so severely.

With over 500,000 now vaccinated (almost 1% of the population), we are slowly but surely on the path back to normality at this stage. As we vaccinate the elderly, more vulnerable groups, death rates will fall significantly and the risk of allowing the virus to spread will become much less serious (and the NHS will be at a much lower risk of being overwhelmed).

When do you envisage a return to some form of normality (not “new normal”, but old, regular, 2019 “normal”). If I was to estimate, I would say that by Easter (late March/early April), life will be significantly less restricted than it is now. Many of the vulnerable over 80’s will have had the vaccine, and some of the younger age groups will have started to receive it too, meaning a large proportion of the clinically vulnerable will be immune to the virus. I can’t see us returning fully to normal until at least summer, however I do see a lot more normality by Easter than I do now. When do you think it is likely we will return to normal?

 

[Cdd89]

I don’t view face masks as the most extreme measure but I do view them as the most symbolic measure. Based on Biden saying “100 days to mask” - and assuming he sticks to that, that implies 30 April for that restriction ending in the US, and other countries including the UK might follow their lead.

That said I expect some people will continue wearing masks, social distancing etc voluntarily for an indefinite and indeterminate length of time into the future. I don’t think the old normal is entirely coming back because that needs everyone to revert their mindset en masse as to the risks of catching illness.

 

[matt]

Assuming as per the popular rumour that the Oxford Vaccine is approved in the next few days and with that a ramp up of the vaccination rate then I am assuming some time in the spring we will be a lot closer to how we were before Covid.

 

[theironroad]

I don’t view face masks as the most extreme measure but I do view them as the most symbolic measure. Based on Biden saying “100 days to mask” - and assuming he sticks to that, that implies 30 April for that restriction ending in the US, and other countries including the UK might follow their lead.

That said I expect some people will continue wearing masks, social distancing etc voluntarily for an indefinite and indeterminate length of time into the future. I don’t think the old normal is entirely coming back because that needs everyone to revert their mindset en masse as to the risks of catching illness.

I don't remember the exact context Biden made that request in, but I think it was more based on symbolism than science. The first 100 days of any new us presidency is seen as a time to fulfill pledges of the campaign trail.

I think the 100 day request was an attempt by him to encourage more Americans to wear masks, but if rates haven't fallen by day 101 I'd fully expect him to say keep going and carrying on wearing them.

 

[Huntergreed]

if rates haven't fallen by day 101 I'd fully expect him to say keep going and carrying on wearing them.

Indeed, another example of 'it's not working, so we need more of it!'

 

[theironroad]

Indeed, another example of 'it's not working, so we need more of it!'

While the rates may not be falling , the masks may be preventing the rates rising too.

To answer the original question, I'm afraid to say normality by easter is a pipe dream.

Using the omni vaccine calculator I'm predicted the middle of the year and I'm not young and that's based on a vaccination rate that has so far been not been remotely achieved.

I'd agree that as the higher risk groups are vaccinated, pressure on the NHS should drop and we'll be entering summer by then which also should help.

Having all those massive nightingale hospitals built within weeks was a great achievement and could be taking a massive pressure off the NHS right now, unfortunately the technology to staff them all with robots isn't there yet and nobody seemed to have thought that the already thousands of vacancies in the NHS and an inability to staff regular and nightingale wards might be an issue, which it is.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I broadly agree with you. We'll get a better idea in the next month or two, because the big events in the summer will need to decide whether they will be held way in advance. I would expect many festivals like Glastonbury to be cancelled, for example, but smaller events towards the end of the summer may be worth keeping an eye on.

I do expect significantly eased restrictions by Easter, probably in line with current Tier 1, with some badly affected areas perhaps in Tier 2. There will sadly still be social distancing and masks, because SAGE and the media will shift the focus from preventing hospitalisations and deaths to preventing "long Covid", and so will still demand measures to reduce the spread. In practice I think these measures will be increasingly derided and ridiculed, but sadly there'll be legal weight behind them which will prevent us returning to a proper normal.

One area where I don't expect to see much change even in the medium term is international travel. I think this will remain difficult for some time to come, since while we might get our population vaccinated quickly, other countries are likely to be much slower. This could be good news for our national tourism and hospitality industries though, who will be glad of a busy season, especially if the vast majority of domestic restrictions are gone by the summer as I'd hope.

With masks specifically, I don't think they're likely to catch on here because there aren't that many people advocating for them passionately, and with a few exceptions you rarely see them outside. However, it will be very different in the US, where masks are really more of a political/symbolic thing now. I would expect in American cities, particularly ones which are more inclined towards the Democrats, masks are likely to be the norm long into the future, and possibly permanently.

 

[DB]

While the rates may not be falling , the masks may be preventing the rates rising too.

If that was the case, it would have shown as a change in the infection graph trajectory when they were mandated. I am not aware of any country where that has actually happened...

 

[Reliablebeam]

Casting an eye over the early editions of the 'right wing' press, there is some shenanigans and leaking/jockeying for position going on. My reading of this suggests there is an expectation on the part of many Tories of nuking a lot of the restrictions asap once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. This might be where things get interesting as @NorthOxonian points out, as SAGE and Whitty and co might be very noisy indeed, and we've seen the castors on the corona goalposts are very efficient indeed. In the meantime, we just need to worry about what Hancock and Whitty have up their sleeves - I get the distinct feeling schools and undergraduate teaching may be canned come jan/feb...

I've no doubt voluntary masking might remain common in 'trendy' areas of the country, although there are large numbers wearing them (often incorrectly) under sufferance.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Casting an eye over the early editions of the 'right wing' press, there is some shenanigans and leaking/jockeying for position going on. My reading of this suggests there is an expectation on the part of many Tories of nuking a lot of the restrictions asap once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. This might be where things get interesting as @NorthOxonian points out, as SAGE and Whitty and co might be very noisy indeed, and we've seen the castors on the corona goalposts are very efficient indeed. In the meantime, we just need to worry about what Hancock and Whitty have up their sleeves - I get the distinct feeling schools and undergraduate teaching may be canned come jan/feb...

I've no doubt voluntary masking might remain common in 'trendy' areas of the country, although there are large numbers wearing them (often incorrectly) under sufferance.

The other interesting group to watch will be Labour. They may accuse the Conservatives of favouring their supporters if restrictions are eased when the elderly are vaccinated, while young people are still at risk (even if that risk is much less likely to kill them).

It'll be interesting to see if you're right about masks. There does seem to be some correlation between voluntary mask wearing (at the moment that means outdoors but obviously this will change in the future) and "trendy" areas. But it isn't perfect - unless Durham has inexplicably become trendier than Bristol!

 

[yorkie]

While the rates may not be falling , the masks may be preventing the rates rising too.....

Clutching at straws there!

To answer the original question, I'm afraid to say normality by easter is a pipe dream.

We must have significant normality by Easter. Anything else is simply not acceptable, and not affordable (financially, economically and for our fundamental wellbeing)

I think you are out of touch if you think heavy restrictions are possible after Easter. The public won't tolerate this for that long and the costs will keep rising.

The other interesting group to watch will be Labour. They may accuse the Conservatives of favouring their supporters if restrictions are eased when the elderly are vaccinated, while young people are still at risk (even if that risk is much less likely to kill them)....

That would be political suicide; young people are much more at risk from factors relating to the measures taken to reduce the spread, than the virus itself.

I predict significant (but not total) normality from Easter onwards.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I do expect significantly eased restrictions by Easter, probably in line with current Tier 1, with some badly affected areas perhaps in Tier 2. There will sadly still be social distancing and masks, because SAGE and the media will shift the focus from preventing hospitalisations and deaths to preventing "long Covid", and so will still demand measures to reduce the spread. In practice I think these measures will be increasingly derided and ridiculed, but sadly there'll be legal weight behind them which will prevent us returning to a proper normal.

I agree that the goalposts will move but my hunch is rather than concentrating on "long Covid" the message will change from don't kill granny to don't kill little Johnny. I don't think there are any plans at this stage to vaccinate the under 18s and despite the fact there is close to a 0% chance of that group dying, not killing little kids is a very powerful message for those who want to use it.

 

[Scotrail12]

Perhaps controversial but I think that this new strain will be largely forgotten about in the next 4-6 weeks as the goalposts have changed often, just like how Long Covid was the big thing for a short time and then faded away from the spotlight. I 100% believe that it was used as a tactic to avoid a massive surge in cases post Christmas. Come late January, Christmas will be a distant memory so I don't think they'll focus on it any more. It's been around since September, if it was truly that bad - we'd have known about it way earlier than December 19th!

I see us having another 2-3 months (4 months tops) of some sort of restrictions but I think they'll be canned throughout the Spring and going into the Summer, they're barely being adhered to or enforced now so it would be a waste of everyone's time and in nobody's best interest to keep restrictions once vulnerable groups have been vaccinated.

Agree that some "trendy" areas and people may wear masks but I don't think they will be that popular going forward. Maybe a little bit more than before but not that much. I'll never touch one again myself once the mandate is dropped. I certainly hope people will see common sense and not wear them when they have a cold because we need things like colds to boost our immune systems, otherwise it has nothing to work with.

Who knows what Drakeford will be planning but I definitely think Boris & Sturgeon will drop restrictions at the earliest chance - common sense will hopefully prevail in the former as he'll have no reason to have further restrictions and the latter is facing an election in May.

 

[DB]

I agree that the goalposts will move but my hunch is rather than "long Covid" he message will change from don't kill granny to don't kill little Johnny. I don't think there are any plans at this stage to vaccinate the under 18s and despite the fact there is close to a 0% chance of that group dying, not killing little kids is a very powerful message for those who want to use it.

Not a very powerful message when there is virtually no chance of it actually happening though! Most kids don't even have any symptoms.

 

[yorkie]

I agree that the goalposts will move but my hunch is rather than concentrating on "long Covid" the message will change from don't kill granny to don't kill little Johnny. I don't think there are any plans at this stage to vaccinate the under 18s and despite the fact there is close to a 0% chance of that group dying, not killing little kids is a very powerful message for those who want to use it.

Better adopt that for 'flu; on average in England alone approx 12 children under 15 die annually due to 'flu - and that's with a vaccine!

 

[DB]

Better adopt that for 'flu; on average in England alone approx 12 children under 15 die annually due to 'flu - and that's with a vaccine!

Don't give them ideas!

 

[Bertie the bus]

Better adopt that for 'flu; on average in England alone approx 12 children under 15 die annually due to 'flu - and that's with a vaccine!

We vaccinate kids for flu. There are currently no plans to vaccinate them against Covid.

 

[DB]

We vaccinate kids for flu. There are currently no plans to vaccinate them against Covid.

For that age group, flu is actually much more of a risk than covid.

 

[yorkie]

We vaccinate kids for flu.

True, though hitherto only up to Year 6; this year we vaccinated up to Year 7, though it is unclear if this was a one-off or not.

But I did say ''and that's with a vaccine"

There are currently no plans to vaccinate them against Covid.

Those plans will be subject to review depending on various factors; it does raise all sorts of questions which are beyond the scope of this thread though.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Not a very powerful message when there is virtually no chance of it actually happening though! Most kids don't even have any symptoms.

You don't seem to have any understanding whatsoever of how normal people think. A couple of weeks ago The Times highlighted the death of a fit 17 year old who had no underlying health conditions. Why do you think they published details about that? Do you think everybody who read it will immediately look at the NHS stats and see that only 6 under 19s without underlying health conditions have died since March or do you think they will think - oh, that's terrible. His poor parents.

 

[DB]

You don't seem to have any understanding whatsoever of how normal people think. A couple of weeks ago The Times highlighted the death of a fit 17 year old who had no underlying health conditions. Why do you think they published details about that? Do you think everybody who read it will immediately look at the NHS stats and see that only 6 under 19s without underlying health conditions have died since March or do you think they will think - oh, that's terrible. His poor parents.

It is so rare that there is no chance of getting widespread support for restrictions because of it.

And with all these cases, it's no known underlying health condition - there will be one in a number of cases whuch hasn't been diagnosed.

 

[yorkie]

You don't seem to have any understanding whatsoever of how normal people think. A couple of weeks ago The Times highlighted the death of a fit 17 year old who had no underlying health conditions. Why do you think they published details about that? Do you think everybody who read it will immediately look at the NHS stats and see that only 6 under 19s without underlying health conditions have died since March or do you think they will think - oh, that's terrible. His poor parents.

It is so rare that there is no chance of getting widespread support for restrictions because of it.

And with all these cases, it's no known underlying health condition - there will be one in a number of cases whuch hasn't been diagnosed.

You are both right!

The illogical hysterical brigade will be calling for it; some people will be duped, but most people will, at least by that point, realise the true risks are low.

It's disgraceful the way the media hype Covid deaths while ignoring other deaths, especially suicides, which is a one of the main causes of death for young adult males in particular. I don't want to go off topic as we have a separate thread for that, but our poor evaluation of risk (as a species) does threaten to extend restrictions.

Despite all this, I'm sticking with my prediction, though the effects of any new strains do make it difficult to predict.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I sincerely hope masks will not be mandatory for much longer. It is horrible not seeing full faces, I absolutely hate them and I believe they have as much benefit as elephant repellent (the ‘we don’t get elephants around here’ response being ‘evidence’ of effectiveness).

I saw a young woman on a station platform recently, with her son, who looked about 6 or 7. He was wearing a visor AND a mask. Ridiculous I know, but what psychological damage is this kind of thing inflicting on young minds?

 

[The Prisoner]

I own and run a music festival which takes place in the north west of England. Our council has told us they expect events to be allowed to proceed from around April in *some* format.

Government is very keen for the 2021 festival season to go ahead as it creates billions for the economy and they won't be keen on bailing it out (not that they made even a remote effort to support the sector in 2020 - I could write a book about the "Culture Recovery Fund", which was as as much use as an inflatable dartboard). I was asked to provide evidence to a parliamentary committee on what could be done to bring the sector back for the summer and our biggest issue (if public health consents to there being a chance of going ahead) will be insurance - if covid is even remotely still a "thing" come summer 2021 no insurer will touch us with a barge pole. Add in the lack consumer confidence to buy tickets (so a commercial risk), and not being to police social distancing if it is still a thing (no matter how small any future measures are festivals thrive on human contact) and we are going to struggle potentially to put the show on for 2021.

Our festival takes the best part of a year to plan, and the reality is that if we aren't confident by March/April we may have to postpone to 2022. If things do look normal-ish by then hopefully we can crack on as everyone will be ready to party.

 

[bramling]

It’s clear that, with this new strain, we are going to be living under even tougher restrictions for many months to come yet. With much uncertainty, it’s often difficult to see a way out from the never-ending, ever-changing rules and laws which restrict our freedoms so severely.

With over 500,000 now vaccinated (almost 1% of the population), we are slowly but surely on the path back to normality at this stage. As we vaccinate the elderly, more vulnerable groups, death rates will fall significantly and the risk of allowing the virus to spread will become much less serious (and the NHS will be at a much lower risk of being overwhelmed).

When do you envisage a return to some form of normality (not “new normal”, but old, regular, 2019 “normal”). If I was to estimate, I would say that by Easter (late March/early April), life will be significantly less restricted than it is now. Many of the vulnerable over 80’s will have had the vaccine, and some of the younger age groups will have started to receive it too, meaning a large proportion of the clinically vulnerable will be immune to the virus. I can’t see us returning fully to normal until at least summer, however I do see a lot more normality by Easter than I do now. When do you think it is likely we will return to normal?

This has cropped up here in parts before, and there was a feeling expressed by many that March/April represents a tidemark for many. Many people have declared 2020 a “write-off”. The winter months of 2021 can easily be added to that, which isn’t a massive loss for many people. However going beyond that I think will prove untenable for restrictions on day-to-day activities, especially anything like stay at home or movement restrictions.

I still expect we’ll retain elements of social distancing beyond then, but at the very least I will expect to return to normal life. As for wretched masks, I wouldn’t be surprised if by then there’s been some study or other which says masks are actually making things worse, it certainly feels like that.

What I really want to see is a return to normal life. Not a frenzy where people are trying to make up for lost time, nor any silly Sunak schemes. Just a return to good old normal life.

 

[Freightmaster]

You don't seem to have any understanding whatsoever of how paranoid, hysterical Karens on social media normal people think.

Fixed that for you...






MARK

 

[duncanp]

Some newspapers are reporting this morning that the government has identified a group of between 12 - 15 million people who are most likely to require hospitalisation if they contract COVID-19. When this group of people have been vaccinated, or even when the vast majority of this group have been vaccinated, the NHS would then no longer be at risk of being overwhelmed if the virus spread through the general population. This can be the starting point for easing of restrictions.

There is a lot of speculation about when this point might be, but most estimates are sometime between mid February and mid March.

The government is also looking into the possibility of accelerating the vaccination program by giving a single dose to more people, rather than a double dose to fewer people. The theory is that having a slightly lower level of protection to a greater number of people is of greater overall benefit, and will means that restrictions can start to be eased sooner than later.

I don't think anyone is expecting all restrictions to be removed by Easter. But I would have thought that the hospitality sector would be be open by then, albeit with limits on numbers and track and trace etc. And fans will no doubt also be allowed back into sports stadiums, again maybe with some temporary restrictions on capacity.

 

[Bantamzen]

One area where I don't expect to see much change even in the medium term is international travel. I think this will remain difficult for some time to come, since while we might get our population vaccinated quickly, other countries are likely to be much slower. This could be good news for our national tourism and hospitality industries though, who will be glad of a busy season, especially if the vast majority of domestic restrictions are gone by the summer as I'd hope.

I'm not so sure international travel will take so much of a hit. A lot of countries rely heavily on tourism, especially from the UK & they will be keen to lure people back out. And whilst the UK industry might be hoping for more domestic trade, it's capacity & cost might not be able to compete with destinations further afield.

I own and run a music festival which takes place in the north west of England. Our council has told us they expect events to be allowed to proceed from around April in *some* format.

Government is very keen for the 2021 festival season to go ahead as it creates billions for the economy and they won't be keen on bailing it out (not that they made even a remote effort to support the sector in 2020 - I could write a book about the "Culture Recovery Fund", which was as as much use as an inflatable dartboard). I was asked to provide evidence to a parliamentary committee on what could be done to bring the sector back for the summer and our biggest issue (if public health consents to there being a chance of going ahead) will be insurance - if covid is even remotely still a "thing" come summer 2021 no insurer will touch us with a barge pole. Add in the lack consumer confidence to buy tickets (so a commercial risk), and not being to police social distancing if it is still a thing (no matter how small any future measures are festivals thrive on human contact) and we are going to struggle potentially to put the show on for 2021.

Our festival takes the best part of a year to plan, and the reality is that if we aren't confident by March/April we may have to postpone to 2022. If things do look normal-ish by then hopefully we can crack on as everyone will be ready to party.

I do hope you are right, but knowing as I do organisers of small & medium festivals there is a growing fear that restrictions on numbers at any future events might mean that making them difficult to keep cost effective.

Some newspapers are reporting this morning that the government has identified a group of between 12 - 15 million people who are most likely to require hospitalisation if they contract COVID-19. When this group of people have been vaccinated, or even when the vast majority of this group have been vaccinated, the NHS would then no longer be at risk of being overwhelmed if the virus spread through the general population. This can be the starting point for easing of restrictions.

There is a lot of speculation about when this point might be, but most estimates are sometime between mid February and mid March.

The government is also looking into the possibility of accelerating the vaccination program by giving a single dose to more people, rather than a double dose to fewer people. The theory is that having a slightly lower level of protection to a greater number of people is of greater overall benefit, and will means that restrictions can start to be eased sooner than later.

I don't think anyone is expecting all restrictions to be removed by Easter. But I would have thought that the hospitality sector would be be open by then, albeit with limits on numbers and track and trace etc. And fans will no doubt also be allowed back into sports stadiums, again maybe with some temporary restrictions on capacity.

This is what we need, the end game. If we really are settling on a strategy of vaccinations for the most vulnerable then perhaps there is actual daylight at the end of this long tunnel. I just hope that those still keen on restrictions don't try to derail this.

 

[brad465]

Clutching at straws there!


We must have significant normality by Easter. Anything else is simply not acceptable, and not affordable (financially, economically and for our fundamental wellbeing)

I think you are out of touch if you think heavy restrictions are possible after Easter. The public won't tolerate this for that long and the costs will keep rising.

That would be political suicide; young people are much more at risk from factors relating to the measures taken to reduce the spread, than the virus itself.

I predict significant (but not total) normality from Easter onwards.

I agree here, not just because of the political and economic consequences here, but I also think by the 16-23rd March 2021, a year on from when restrictions started being applied, at the very least the impression that we're in a better place than a year before needs to exist, so many restrictions will need to be gone, and in particular further relaxations need to be at least known about, even if they don't take effect for another 2 weeks (by Easter).

Another thing that might drive relaxation sooner rather than later is the behaviour of the CRG and other Tory backbenchers: they probably won't like the Brexit deal organised, but even if they did that's now out of the way and means Covid is the focus, where if there's no sign of ending this soon they'll either pressure Johnson into easing and/or depose him and ensure a replacement eases restrictions pronto. Furthermore I get the impression those running the response would also like this to be over and done with, simply because it's visibly draining them. We've seen Hancock do that Woody-style slump in the Commons, and Vallance and Whitty have also appeared somewhat drained in press briefings since late October; Hancock might have said he hopes normality will be back by 2022, but I don't see him being in post anywhere near the end of 2021, whether through getting the boot or resigning because he's had enough (he might not put it that way).

 

[Smidster]

I would tend to agree that Easter is a realistic target for easements (though expect January to be terrible)

With the vaccine it starts to become a numbers game and we can model it pretty well.

Assuming the Oxford version gets approval and we can push toward 2m per week in January then by the end of February you can be looking at around 15m which means most of the vulnerable will be protected.

Once that happens we should start to see it feed into healthcare data at which point you should be able to lift the harshest restrictions.

Some things will be in place a little longer (low cost interventions like masks in enclosed spaces / hygiene promotion) but we will be getting better