Where did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats ?

[nw1]

By the way, their leader - Ed Davey. Think over-worked civil servant from Caterham and you are not far wrong (I note Caterham has LibDem councillors). Is this an opportunity to ask why Sam Gymah didn't contest east Surrey for the LibDems?

Given the unfortunate tendency for incumbent ex-Tories to lose in 2019 no matter where they stood (Grieve-Gauke-Soubry-Wollaston-Sandbach), I suspect he (Sam Gyimah) would still have not held the seat. But it was unfortunate that he chose three-way marginal Kensington: maybe if he had stood in Winchester for instance (LD from 1997-2010) he would have had a chance of winning that and getting rid of the (IMO) rather patronising and duplicitous incumbent.

well thats false as they have 2 MPs in Surrey right now, and thats a fall.

Richmond Park
Kingston & Surbiton

Depends on your definition of Surrey I guess, these were historically Surrey but now Greater London. If one is to include these two, one should also include Twickenham presumably.

Back in 2010 they additionally had :

Carshalton & Wallington
Sutton & Cheam.

The former is also Greater London while the latter is still Surrey I think. (The 2019 result for the former is really odd - very strange to see a London seat swing towards the Tories, particularly one which presumably - with a Lib Dem background - is socially liberal).

Did they also take Epsom at one point, maybe 1997 or 2001? They did take Guildford for one term (2001) and incredibly also got close to taking Surrey South West (basically Farnham and Haslemere) in the same sort of era.

It's really sad the way Surrey voted in 2019. It wasn't just the 'red wall' which caused the result, it was affluent remain seats in the southeast deciding they didn't really want to remain so much after all and were paranoid about Corbyn - even though a Lab/Lib coalition would I suspect have been very moderate.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

well thats false as they have 2 MPs in Surrey right now, and thats a fall.

Richmond Park
Kingston & Surbiton

Back in 2010 they additionally had :

Carshalton & Wallington
Sutton & Cheam.

some have been lib dem for years, others come and go, Wimbledon is very marginal.

A lot of woollies, among the bankers in this area.

I'm pretty sure those are all in London, not Surrey! (Maybe a long time ago when the boundaries were different, perhaps they would've been in Surrey?)

(The 2019 result for the former is really odd - very strange to see a London seat swing towards the Tories, particularly one which presumably - with a Lib Dem background - is socially liberal).

I'm not certain but I think Carshalton and Wallington is probably one of those seats that is in outer London, but not demographically very typical of London. It's in Sutton, one of the few London boroughs that voted Leave in the Brexit referendum. I may be wrong but I'd hazard a guess that the LibDems originally took the seat by primarily by having a strong local party rather than because of any particular social/demographic factors in their favour.

 

[nw1]

I'm pretty sure those are all in London, not Surrey! (Maybe a long time ago when the boundaries were different, perhaps they would've been in Surrey?)



I'm not certain but I think Carshalton and Wallington is probably one of those seats that is in outer London, but not demographically very typical of London. It's in Sutton, one of the few London boroughs that voted Leave in the Brexit referendum. I may be wrong but I'd hazard a guess that the LibDems originally took the seat by primarily by having a strong local party rather than because of any particular social/demographic factors in their favour.

Interesting. I will admit to knowing little about Sutton, having never visited it, but I perceived it to be maybe fairly typical of SW London.

 

[Typhoon]

well thats false as they have 2 MPs in Surrey right now, and thats a fall.

Richmond Park
Kingston & Surbiton

Back in 2010 they additionally had :

Carshalton & Wallington
Sutton & Cheam.

some have been lib dem for years, others come and go, Wimbledon is very marginal.

Richmond Park - London Borough of Richmond (as well as parts of Royal Borough of Kingston-upon-Thames)
Kingston & Surbiton - Royal Borough of Kingston-upon-Thames (Ed Davey's seat).
Carshalton & Wallington - London Borough of Sutton
Sutton & Cheam - London Borough of Sutton
Wimbledon - London Borough of Merton

Depends on your definition of Surrey I guess, these were historically Surrey but now Greater London. If one is to include these two, one should also include Twickenham presumably.

Quite right. I used the area covered by Surrey County Council. The trouble with taking a historic approach is it depends on how far you go back. In researching my family tree, I have found documents that describe Camberwell as being in Surrey!

The 2019 result for the former is really odd - very strange to see a London seat swing towards the Tories, particularly one which presumably - with a Lib Dem background - is socially liberal.

I could understand it if the MP was useless, but Tom Brake always struck me as being reasonably competent, and had been there some years.

Given the unfortunate tendency for incumbent ex-Tories to lose in 2019 no matter where they stood (Grieve-Gauke-Soubry-Wollaston-Sandbach), I suspect he (Sam Gyimah) would still have not held the seat. But it was unfortunate that he chose three-way marginal Kensington:.

Gyimah deserves parliamentary oblivion for that. The previous Lib-Dem had polled just over 4,000 so was never going to win, it was a chance to keep Grenfell on the front pages if it did not return to the Conservatives and not having Kensington in the blue corner meant that parties could always say that no-one was unbeatable, just look at Kensington (ignoring the make up of the constituency). Now they have an MP who voted (Sept 2020) against an amendment to the Fire Safety Bill having pledged to implement them 'with a sense of urgency' (it is my understanding that they have still to be fully implemented).

On Monday evening, the government rejected a Labour amendment to the Fire Safety Bill which would have ensured that recommendations from the first phase of the Grenfell Inquiry were put in place.
The party's amendment required flat owners or building managers in England and Wales to:

• Share information with their local fire service about the design of external walls and the materials used
• Carry out regular inspections of lifts and individual flat entrance doors
• Share evacuation and fire safety instructions with residents of the building

The government wanted to consult on these. I reckon it would have been diplomatic of her to find a reason to stay away. Voting against looks bad. Mind you, she was an investment banker.

maybe if he had stood in Winchester for instance (LD from 1997-2010) he would have had a chance of winning that and getting rid of the (IMO) rather patronising and duplicitous incumbent.

Not Mr Brine - who seems to have a number of jobs: including advisor to a pharmaceutical company and a healthcare recruitment firm. Doubtless he's been a busy man!

Quote from: Grenfell recommendations will be implemented, says Robert Jenrick - BBC News

 

[Gloster]

Did they also take Epsom at one point, maybe 1997 or 2001? They did take Guildford for one term (2001) and incredibly also got close to taking Surrey South West (basically Farnham and Haslemere) in the same sort of era.

Epsom & Ewell has been solid Conservative since it was created in
1974: never less than 10,000 majority (and the MP is Chris ‘I know about shipping’ Grayling). South West Surrey has also been Conservative throughout, but sometimes with a fairly small majority. My parents used to live in the constituency and said that Virginia Bottomley was not a popular MP: a majority of only 861 in 2001.

 

[TravelDream]

Non-aligned People vote based on their emotion, which is guided by their perception at the time (ie personal economics, feeling towards the current party, country, media etc).

There are a lot of factors which make up the way someone votes and all of them you list are involved.
There are others though too.
Our FPTP system discourages many people from voting for who they want to. Anyone who lives in a marginal seat will have recieved 'it's a two hour race' and 'only X can beat Y' type leaflets and they can be very effective.

 

[Sm5]

Richmond Park - London Borough of Richmond (as well as parts of Royal Borough of Kingston-upon-Thames)
Kingston & Surbiton - Royal Borough of Kingston-upon-Thames (Ed Davey's seat).
Carshalton & Wallington - London Borough of Sutton
Sutton & Cheam - London Borough of Sutton
Wimbledon - London Borough of Merton

Quite right. I used the area covered by Surrey County Council. The trouble with taking a historic approach is it depends on how far you go back. In researching my family tree, I have found documents that describe Camberwell as being in Surrey!

I could understand it if the MP was useless, but Tom Brake always struck me as being reasonably competent, and had been there some years.

I’m only going back 10 years, I cant be bothered going back further.
4 MPs living in Surrey since 2010 is more than enough to prove the assertion of 1 Lib Dem MP in 47 years in Surrey is false.

Tom Brake was around sometime, but I’m not sure he did anything for the locals, not anything to shout about in Parliament. Had it not been for good old Nigel buying a few votes with a phony party he’d still be in, same as Sutton.

Just not sure Lib Dems are going to win these back as the new guys are trying quite hard, and are making an impact.

Depends on your definition of Surrey I guess, these were historically Surrey but now Greater London. If one is to include these two, one should also include Twickenham presumably.

The former is also Greater London while the latter is still Surrey I think. (The 2019 result for the former is really odd - very strange to see a London seat swing towards the Tories, particularly one which presumably - with a Lib Dem background - is socially liberal).

how else do you define Surrey…?

According to the postoffice, your postcode is Surrey ?
Kingston is HQ Surrey County Council..

Surrey County Council - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Gloster]

It is peculiar, but Council HQ stayed in Kingston after the town itself became part of Greater London in 1965. If you are going to include the parts of Greater London that were part of Surrey pre-1965 you need to be clear. With parliamentary constituencies, most have been mucked about with since 1965.

Postcodes are not tied to counties. I lived in Surrey and had a KT postcode, but I lived in Somerset with a BA (Bath) postcode and Cornwall with a PL (Plymouth) one. Now I am on the Isle of Wight and have a PO (Portsmouth) one, although some would claim that the island is part of Hampshire.

 

[Sm5]

It is peculiar, but Council HQ stayed in Kingston after the town itself became part of Greater London in 1965. If you are going to include the parts of Greater London that were part of Surrey pre-1965 you need to be clear. With parliamentary constituencies, most have been mucked about with since 1965.

Postcodes are not tied to counties. I lived in Surrey and had a KT postcode, but I lived in Somerset with a BA (Bath) postcode and Cornwall with a PL (Plymouth) one. Now I am on the Isle of Wight and have a PO (Portsmouth) one, although some would claim that the island is part of Hampshire.

Ah so it is dodgy politics.

Moving borders to keep ones advantage.

 

[Typhoon]

It is peculiar, but Council HQ stayed in Kingston after the town itself became part of Greater London in 1965. If you are going to include the parts of Greater London that were part of Surrey pre-1965 you need to be clear. With parliamentary constituencies, most have been mucked about with since 1965.

Postcodes are not tied to counties. I lived in Surrey and had a KT postcode, but I lived in Somerset with a BA (Bath) postcode and Cornwall with a PL (Plymouth) one. Now I am on the Isle of Wight and have a PO (Portsmouth) one, although some would claim that the island is part of Hampshire.

Yes, absolutely. Sussex, for instance, is all over the place - parts have a PO postcode (Chichester, Bognor Regis), RH [Redhill - in Surrey] (Crawley, Haywards Heath), GU [Guildford] (Midhurst, Petworth), BN [Brighton] (Eastbourne, Worthing), TN [Tunbridge Wells] (Hastings, Uckfield).

Ah so it is dodgy politics.

Moving borders to keep ones advantage.

I think it was down to either Royal Mail sorting offices or 'large town/ city', not dodgy politics I'm afraid. I suspect some codes for towns and cities were chosen because the letters stood out and to avoid confusion, so FY is Fylde, not BL for Blackpool because that could be confused with BL which is Bolton.
To my knowledge there have been minimal if any changes to postcode areas.

(I am aware that Sussex is split between East and West with Brighton and Hove on the middle).

 

[XAM2175]

I think it was down to either Royal Mail sorting offices or 'large town/ city', not dodgy politics I'm afraid.

Correct. Postcodes are designed entirely for RM's convenience and have no automatic link to any local government boundaries.

 

[Typhoon]

maybe if he had stood in Winchester for instance (LD from 1997-2010) he would have had a chance of winning that and getting rid of the (IMO) rather patronising and duplicitous incumbent.

Assuming it is Brine, he is not coming out of the current situation well:

Steve Brine, who gets three extra salaries on top of his MP’s pay, receives £20,000 for up to eight hours work a month for Sigma Pharmaceuticals. In this capacity he joined a webinar hosted by former vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi.

The firm has won contracts worth a total of £140,000 to supply Covid tests and other items to pharmacies. He also receives £38,400 annually for one day’s work a month for each of two further firms which are also in healthcare.

They are Remedium, which has been paid £1.4million since 2016 to recruit NHS personnel, and Microlink PC, which supplies the NHS with technology to help the disabled.

I hope there are video clips and/ or transcripts of the webinar!

There have been polls about whether MPs should have second jobs; to me it is the nature of the second job that is important - how much time will it take up, and how much overlap will there be with their work as an MP. In Brine's case, the answer to the latter (in light of the hilighted section) considerable. I have no problem with those who returned to the NHS during the pandemic, I'm not overworried about an MP being a football referee but lobbyist or consultant clearly idicate that there might be a conflict of interest. Brine, to me, oversteps the mark.

Regarding the election in 2019, Brine got in by less than a thousand votes, so a bigger push or a bigger name might have seen the LibDems past the post in pole position. Having said that the candidate did seem to press all the right buttons on paper, it is certainly the type of constituency worth putting more effort in. Having said that the last MP did not leave with his reputation untarnished, these things seem to remain in voter's memory.

Sadly for them this appears to be the only winnable seat in Hampshire; Eastleigh, LibDem until 2015 and formerly Chis Huhne's seat, now has a Conservative majority of over 15,000. That won't be overturned any time soon.

Sorry, missed the quote ref: Jonathan Djanogly MP 'paid nearly £1,000 an hour by firm' (msn.com)

 

[nw1]

Assuming it is Brine, he is not coming out of the current situation well:

I have to admit I missed that one.

What I didn't like about Brine is the way that he appeared to make a big thing of supporting Remain supporters in Winchester immediately after the referendum result - and was one of the 21 who resigned the Tory whip - before promptly agreeing to stand as a Johnson MP in 2019 and voting through Johnson's deal. Suggests a career politician to me, rather than someone with principles such as Grieve, Gauke, Soubry, Stewart, Sandbach etc. If Gyimah (an ex-Tory) had beaten Brine in Winchester, that would have been a pleasing result.

I also remember hearing him on the radio one day in August 2019 and finding him, personally, very slimy and patronising, particularly regarding Jeremy Corbyn. Now I am not a Corbyn 'fanboy' myself especially, but he's by no means the worst name in British politics, and I found his (Brine's) whole tone on that radio programme extremely patronising towards the whole concept of Jeremy Corbyn being a possible leader.

Sadly for them this appears to be the only winnable seat in Hampshire; Eastleigh, LibDem until 2015 and formerly Chis Huhne's seat, now has a Conservative majority of over 15,000. That won't be overturned any time soon.

And the thing is, it can't just be Huhne as the Lib Dems did win the subsequent byelection in 2013. If Huhne alone was enough to turn people off the Lib Dems, they would presumably have lost that one.

Sad. Does seem to indicate a marked rightwards shift in certain types of seats recently, similar to the case of the southwest mentioned above. Perhaps when people realise the Cult of Brexit will not solve all their problems, things will shift back again.

 

[Typhoon]

And the thing is, it can't just be Huhne as the Lib Dems did win the subsequent byelection in 2013. If Huhne alone was enough to turn people off the Lib Dems, they would presumably have lost that one.

Sad. Does seem to indicate a marked rightwards shift in certain types of seats recently, similar to the case of the southwest mentioned above. Perhaps when people realise the Cult of Brexit will not solve all their problems, things will shift back again.

The by-election was deceptive. LibDem 13,342, Conservative 10,559 but UKIP 11,571 (massive increase from under 2,000). The UKIP candidate was Diane James, in the days before she became little more than a joke.

(I suspect you missed the Brine story because it was rather buried by the report than Djanogly has a second job where he is paid almost £1,000 an hour; nice work if you can get it!)

 

[telstarbox]

Ah so it is dodgy politics.

Moving borders to keep ones advantage.

The border changed in 1965 so that's going back a bit! This is Greater London now: https://mapit.mysociety.org/area/2247.html

 

[Busaholic]

Correct. Postcodes are designed entirely for RM's convenience and have no automatic link to any local government boundaries.

As evidenced by most of East Cornwall falling under a Plymouth (Devon) postcode!

 

[Sm5]

It's really sad the way Surrey voted in 2019. It wasn't just the 'red wall' which caused the result, it was affluent remain seats in the southeast deciding they didn't really want to remain so much after all and were paranoid about Corbyn - even though a Lab/Lib coalition would I suspect have been very moderate.

if you look at the votes, they didnt move at all.
There was 600 votes between Tory and Libs in Carshalton and Wallington.

However the Brexit party bought 1000 votes.
There was 6 candidates there.

Now next door in Sutton and Cheam, a Tory safe seat, just 4 usual parties stood candidates and nothing changed.

 

[AlterEgo]

Correct. Postcodes are designed entirely for RM's convenience and have no automatic link to any local government boundaries.

Indeed, Bedford is in Bedfordshire yet has MK (in Bucks) postcodes!

 

[Busaholic]

if you look at the votes, they didnt move at all.
There was 600 votes between Tory and Libs in Carshalton and Wallington.

However the Brexit party bought 1000 votes.
There was 6 candidates there.

Now next door in Sutton and Cheam, a Tory safe seat, just 4 usual parties stood candidates and nothing changed.

Sutton and Cheam was a Liberal seat for a few years, won by Graham Tope in a by-election. There used to be a very amusing video clip showing him being showered in champagne, at which he was absolutely furious as his suit had to go back to Moss Bros. He evidently wasn't confident about the result.

 

[nw1]

Sutton and Cheam was a Liberal seat for a few years, won by Graham Tope in a by-election. There used to be a very amusing video clip showing him being showered in champagne, at which he was absolutely furious as his suit had to go back to Moss Bros. He evidently wasn't confident about the result.

It was Lib Dem during the Blair years as well so probably more of a bell-wether type seat than safe anything.

But then it also had Lady Olga Maitland, who if I remember right was pretty right-wing. Can find some evidence to back this up.

According to Wikipedia she authored a publication called "Political Indoctrination in our Schools" and is quoted as saying this in Parliament (Hansard) on the gay age of consent debate in the nineties: "He may not be doing well at school and could be strongly pressured by the militant gay lobby. Therefore, he should be protected".

Hmmmm...... no wonder she was kicked out in 1997. Sad that the seat has swung rightwards again in recent years, mirroring the general rightward shift of the UK since 2010.

 

[Busaholic]

It was Lib Dem during the Blair years as well so probably more of a bell-wether type seat than safe anything.

But then it also had Lady Olga Maitland, who if I remember right was pretty right-wing. Can find some evidence to back this up.

According to Wikipedia she authored a publication called "Political Indoctrination in our Schools" and is quoted as saying this in Parliament (Hansard) on the gay age of consent debate in the nineties: "He may not be doing well at school and could be strongly pressured by the militant gay lobby. Therefore, he should be protected".

Hmmmm...... no wonder she was kicked out in 1997. Sad that the seat has swung rightwards again in recent years, mirroring the general rightward shift of the UK since 2010.

Olga Maitland and Teresa Gorman - two right wing women Tory MPs not shy of publicity, but both suddenly went very quiet for no apparent reason. Gorman's been dead a few years, and it's been so long since I heard of Maitland I assumed she'd died too, but apparently not.

 

[Sm5]

Olga Maitland and Teresa Gorman - two right wing women Tory MPs not shy of publicity, but both suddenly went very quiet for no apparent reason. Gorman's been dead a few years, and it's been so long since I heard of Maitland I assumed she'd died too, but apparently not.

I think Gorman has a valid excuse for being quiet.

 

[Gloster]

My vague recollection is that Lady Olga Maitland was trying to position herself as the new Thatcher. (That sends a shudder down my spine.)

 

[Busaholic]

I think Gorman has a valid excuse for being quiet.

Quite - but she quit as a politician years before that, though I've an idea she might have been unwell for some time before she died. Olga Maitland, though, more of an enigma. Quite often, when someone very vocal previously goes quiet suddenly you later learn of something unpleasant medically, either physical or mental, not that I'm implying anything in her case.

 

[Gloster]

Quite - but she quit as a politician years before that, though I've an idea she might have been unwell for some time before she died. Olga Maitland, though, more of an enigma. Quite often, when someone very vocal previously goes quiet suddenly you later learn of something unpleasant medically, either physical or mental, not that I'm implying anything in her case.

She seems to still be fairly active in various capacities. Perhaps being twice rejected by the good people of Sutton and Cheam (in 1997 and 2001) dampened her political ardour.

 

[johnnychips]

Quite - but she quit as a politician years before that, though I've an idea she might have been unwell for some time before she died. Olga Maitland, though, more of an enigma. Quite often, when someone very vocal previously goes quiet suddenly you later learn of something unpleasant medically, either physical or mental, not that I'm implying anything in her case.

Although we rightly criticise the media a lot, when anybody who was in the limelight gets a degenerative disease like Alzheimer’s they tend to ignore it until the obituaries. I do believe Harold Wilson and Mrs Thatcher were unfortunate to suffer in this way, and the media kindly did not report it.

 

[Sm5]

Thatcher. (That sends a shudder down my spine.)

On the way into London Bridge, on the right hand side approaches, is probably the best uniquely British grafiti quote Ive seen in some time…

“the witch is dead but the spell remains”.

 

[Busaholic]

Although we rightly criticise the media a lot, when anybody who was in the limelight gets a degenerative disease like Alzheimer’s they tend to ignore it until the obituaries. I do believe Harold Wilson and Mrs Thatcher were unfortunate to suffer in this way, and the media kindly did not report it.

It was a bit different with Wilson because of his resigning not too long into his second term as PM citing mental and physical exhaustion, thus probably pre-empting a lot of conjecture on the subject. By the time of Thatcher's departure at the behest of her Cabinet, Alzheimer's was much more spoken about and I do remember political diaries in newspapers hinting at something wrong not too long after she'd gone from office. I must admit to feeling, perhaps for the first time, a smidgen of sympathy for her then.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

On the way into London Bridge, on the right hand side approaches, is probably the best uniquely British grafiti quote Ive seen in some time…

“the witch is dead but the spell remains”.

Mrs. Thatcher did much that I don't agree with, but she was actually a human being, with a family who loved her. Frankly, it must take an awfully inability to see other human beings as people and to respect their different beliefs, in order to regard such an offensive, dehumanising, statement, as in any way a best grafiti quote.

 

[Sm5]

Mrs. Thatcher did much that I don't agree with, but she was actually a human being, with a family who loved her. Frankly, it must take an awfully inability to see other human beings as people and to respect their different beliefs, in order to regard such an offensive, dehumanising, statement, as in any way a best grafiti quote.

She was a devisive person. I’m sure her family grieved as does anyones family.
But lets not forget she made many many families grieve, and suffer hardship.

Police make arrests at Thatcher death street parties in Bristol and Brixton

Officers injured during public disorder as hundreds turn out across cities in Britain to celebrate former prime minister's death

www.theguardian.com

and not just in her own country, she supported dictators who murdered people in others..

Thatcher sent Pinochet finest scotch during former dictator's UK house arrest

Detail revealed in latest volume of Thatcher biography adds color to close relationship between UK PM and dictator who oversaw deaths of thousands

www.theguardian.com

lets not pretend she was a saint, she had a dignified family funeral, thats everyones right, and a governmental level one which was her right, but a large proportion of the public have no love for her, and thats their right. Of course its your right to disagree.

The Londonist rated it at Number 4 of Londons most prominent grafiti messages in the last 50 years. Even if you disagree, clicking the link will still give you a picture of grafiti with a Deltic at full throttle at number 5.

10 London Graffiti Slogans From The Last 50 Years

No Banksy here.

londonist.com