Will people go back to normal after a vaccine?

[Jozhua]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

Many of us are desperately hoping new and effective coronavirus vaccines will soon transport us back to our pre-Covid lives. But many scientists are warning that their arrival probably won't mean throwing our face masks in the bin anytime soon.

This article is basically suggesting that until we effectively "eradicate" covid, we can't go back to normal.

The premise is a bit ridiculous really. It's all about risk management. Covid isn't the plague, it's a bad disease, yes, but it doesn't kill everyone it touches.

So say the death rate IS 1%. (Who suggests it is more like 0.5%) a 90% effective vaccine cuts the number of people contracting, (and therefore dying), by 90%. That brings the effective death toll to 0.1%, or more realistically 0.05%. That's literally the flu.

Plus, the issue with Covid was never the disease itself, but its ability to overwhelm healthcare. There are plenty of bad diseases we live with, it is part of the human condition. Covid was special essentially because it is so viralent and had a death rate high enough to cause a bit of a mess.

So once we have an effective enough mitigation strategy, aka vaccinating the vulnerable - then we really should begin to open up. Obviously we should continue vaccinating everyone who wants one, but realistically, we're never going to "end" covid.

It's all about risk mitigation - we can never avoid risk entirely, we simply reduce it to an acceptable level. There are plenty of risky things we do every day, and with a vaccine, even just for the vulnerable, these will be orders of magnitude higher than the risk covid poses.

Not re-opening once we have adequate mitigation strategies, primarily because the public are so terrified, could be the worst part of covid yet.

 

[LAX54]

It's going to be with us forever now, it is not going anywhere, just like influenza which can be fatal to thousands and thousands, you can have a jab every year for flu, the same will apply for C19, but I think after the first wave of jabs, the take up over the years will be a lot lower, the world is currently panic stricken, the jab should go a long way to ease that 'panic'

 

[Bantamzen]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

This article is basically suggesting that until we effectively "eradicate" covid, we can't go back to normal.

The premise is a bit ridiculous really. It's all about risk management. Covid isn't the plague, it's a bad disease, yes, but it doesn't kill everyone it touches.

So say the death rate IS 1%. (Who suggests it is more like 0.5%) a 90% effective vaccine cuts the number of people contracting, (and therefore dying), by 90%. That brings the effective death toll to 0.1%, or more realistically 0.05%. That's literally the flu.

Plus, the issue with Covid was never the disease itself, but its ability to overwhelm healthcare. There are plenty of bad diseases we live with, it is part of the human condition. Covid was special essentially because it is so viralent and had a death rate high enough to cause a bit of a mess.

So once we have an effective enough mitigation strategy, aka vaccinating the vulnerable - then we really should begin to open up. Obviously we should continue vaccinating everyone who wants one, but realistically, we're never going to "end" covid.

It's all about risk mitigation - we can never avoid risk entirely, we simply reduce it to an acceptable level. There are plenty of risky things we do every day, and with a vaccine, even just for the vulnerable, these will be orders of magnitude higher than the risk covid poses.

Not re-opening once we have adequate mitigation strategies, primarily because the public are so terrified, could be the worst part of covid yet.

Covid is special because of the way politicians have tried to make a name for themselves. Other than that, it is just another virus in a very long list of viruses and assorted other things that can potentially kill us.

 

[37424]

Well for me assuming I get the vaccine and thats going to depend on whether my conslutant thinks it OK for me to have it doesn't appear to be a live vaccine which I carn't have so I may be able to have it. Assuming I can have the vaccine at some point in the coming months, I still have no intention of using public transport for the forseeable future, or changing from online shopping back to in person shopping, I will still be practising my own social distancing, and hand washing where possible, and whether I venture back into cafe's/pubs/resturants is going to depend on infection rates.

For people less at risk well they will make their own judgments and expect a fair proportion will want to go back to normal.

 

[Chester1]

Boris promised normality by the end of Spring and its a promise that he might actually keep this time. By the end of May the 15 million or so people in the risk groups that 99% of the fatalities come from should be vaccinated (or had the opportunity to be). The government will be reluctant to let the virus rip but most controls should still be able to be removed then. I expect masks on public transport, quarantine from high risk countries and severe limits on large gatherings to be in place until early 2022. Some people have liked the isolation and won't want to return to normal but most people will.

 

[greyman42]

the world is currently panic stricken,

The majority of us are not panic stricken and are simply getting on with our lives where we are allowed to. The sooner the unnecessary restrictions are lifted the sooner we will get back to pre covid living and start enjoying life again.

 

[Carlisle]

I expect masks on public transport, quarantine from high risk countries and severe limits on large gatherings to be in place until early 2022.

Maybe your right about masks, but I think. most people don’t currently expect them to be legally required after around next April / May providing everything goes ok with the vaccines

 

[Class 33]

Boris promised normality by the end of Spring and its a promise that he might actually keep this time. By the end of May the 15 million or so people in the risk groups that 99% of the fatalities come from should be vaccinated (or had the opportunity to be). The government will be reluctant to let the virus rip but most controls should still be able to be removed then. I expect masks on public transport, quarantine from high risk countries and severe limits on large gatherings to be in place until early 2022. Some people have liked the isolation and won't want to return to normal but most people will.

I really hope you're wrong on your predictions.

I'm hoping to do some long distance(i.e. journey times of at least 4 hours or so) train and coach journeys next year. But if there is still the requirement to still wear these darn awful face masks, then I'll have to give those a miss. 4 hours or so wearing on a train/coach wearing an uncomfortable bit of cloth on my face, no way! Many people will feel the same too. It will put many people off from doing long distance train and coach journeys!

Also am hoping to do a couple of festivals next summer too, after this year's was a complete and utter write off. If the ban on mass gatherings continues until early 2022, then next year's festival season will be a complete and utter write off too! And if so, many of these festivals will not return. Which will be a disaster for the festivals/events industry. Whilst some festival organisers have already cancelled their festivals several months in advance, due to the uncertainty, many of them are still hopeful their festivals will be able to go ahead next year. Personally I feel those due to take place during the early to mid summer months being able to go ahead is still very uncertain at this stage - including the big one Glastonbury, those during the second half of summer have somewhat more chance of going ahead.

 

[Mojo]

Depends when people are actually willing to have a vaccine. In the past week I've not yet met or heard of one other person who would be willing to have it in the near future. I was in the hairdressers on Wednesday evening waiting for a chair to become free and both the customers in the shop and the two barbers were talking about how they won't be having them.

 

[yorksrob]

I will go back to normal generally - which for me doesn't tend to involve big crowds very much (except the football which is outdoors).. The only difference will be dependant on whether my elderly relatives can have it, which may affect how I interact with them.

 

[yorkie]

It's going to be with us forever now, it is not going anywhere, just like influenza which can be fatal to thousands and thousands, you can have a jab every year for flu, the same will apply for C19...

It's too early to tell. What you're saying is that it will become endemic. You could be right but it's too early to tell. But I don't think influenza is a valid comparison, due to the many different strains of 'flu that circulate, and the regular mutations to these strains.

Based on the fact that for most healthy people the body's primary defence against Sars-Cov-2 appears to be T-cells and people who have had previous Coronaviruses appear to have some level of immunity to it, and given that people who had the original SARS virus appear to still have that immunity, it looks promising that immunity to Sars-Cov-2 could be long lasting.

There are just too many variables to predict that right now, but once we get into the Spring we should see a huge reduction of cases, due in part to a build-up of immunity (both from many older people being vaccinated and younger people having had it) which should enable us to get back to normal, though I suspect vaccinations will continue to be done in order to allow us to continue to be back to normal next winter.

As for @37424's post, based on information divulged in previous posts they are not at all representative of the population; the vast majority of people do want to get back to normal and this evident by talking to people, and just going out and looking around you! The Government can't stop us being back to normal indefinitely; people are not going to tolerate that.

I really hope you're wrong on your predictions.

There is no chance those predictions will be accurate!

 

[Jonny]

Another issue is that when a vaccine or vaccines becomes available to a sufficient extent that everyone has had an opportunity to be vaccinated, continuing existing individual-level restrictions is going to be legally awkward as their continuation or renewal could reasonably be seen as punishment (individual or collective), and as the Government's choice of enabling act precludes mandatory vaccination:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/22/section/45E

45E Medical treatment

(1)Regulations under section 45B or 45C may not include provision requiring a person to undergo medical treatment.
(2)“ Medical treatment” includes vaccination and other prophylactic treatment.

It would certainly make for an interesting case.

 

[Jozhua]

Boris promised normality by the end of Spring and its a promise that he might actually keep this time. By the end of May the 15 million or so people in the risk groups that 99% of the fatalities come from should be vaccinated (or had the opportunity to be). The government will be reluctant to let the virus rip but most controls should still be able to be removed then. I expect masks on public transport, quarantine from high risk countries and severe limits on large gatherings to be in place until early 2022. Some people have liked the isolation and won't want to return to normal but most people will.

Yeah, some people have definitely liked the isolation! If you've seen the South Park Pandemic Special, Cartman very much takes to social distancing, with a 6-foot stick he brandishes to push other people out the way.

My one hope is Boris seems fairly eager to get out of this, and seeing that this lockdown was not quite as stark as the last one shows that public will is gradually fading as well. The continued worry is that people won't accept even one death per day as an acceptable risk, rather than being reassured that with sufficient medical mitigation in place, that the risk to the general populous will be low.

Depends when people are actually willing to have a vaccine. In the past week I've not yet met or heard of one other person who would be willing to have it in the near future. I was in the hairdressers on Wednesday evening waiting for a chair to become free and both the customers in the shop and the two barbers were talking about how they won't be having them.

You know, I'm pretty confident with the vaccine.

Most of them were already in a reasonably finished state back in April/May, some samples of the mRNA ones were done within a couple weeks of the genetic code being published. The rest of this time has been spent checking efficacy and safety. The regulators and companies have moved swiftly, mostly due to the record level of private and public sector investment and resources dedicated to the task. Every hoop has been jumped through though, and I'm confident that they have a good, safe offering.

I'd recommend looking into how the mRNA vaccines work for any who are concerned, it's essentially replicating how a virus uses your cells to produce copies of itself, except the RNA being injected is only enough to create the spike proteins, so once the RNA material in the vaccine has been used up, there will be nothing left in your body but the spike proteins, which your immune cells use to create antibodies with, before gobbling them up and digesting them.

 

[johntea]

As a glasses wearer, I will probably die from an accident due to not being able to see due to steamed up glasses after putting a mask on than from Covid anyway! (Even worse now with the winter weather)

Coincidentally I had an antibody test which returned a positive result several months ago, but I still have to follow the restrictions even though I feel I don't really gain anything from doing so any more - justified by 'it doesn't prove you can't catch it again' (but based on what I've been reading, probably more chance of winning the lottery several times over!) and 'it doesn't prove you can't spread it to others' (but apparently the vaccine is in the same boat!)

Normality will eventually resume of course, just the new normal has been fast forwarded several years (accelerated death of the high street, less reliance on sitting in an actual office location 5 days a week due to technology)

Personally I won't be rushing to be vaccinated, but there will be plenty of people that will be

 

[SS4]

Depends when people are actually willing to have a vaccine. In the past week I've not yet met or heard of one other person who would be willing to have it in the near future. I was in the hairdressers on Wednesday evening waiting for a chair to become free and both the customers in the shop and the two barbers were talking about how they won't be having them.

I think it's riding on this. Vaccinate enough people and you'll get herd immunity to protect those who can't or won't - I'd be curious to see what our ancestors would have thought if people willingly refused a vaccine for a disease.

What doesn't help is that the media have been following the government like a puppy behind its master and fawning over them as though they can do no wrong and a number of people simply don't buy it any more and distrust both government and media

 

[Bantamzen]

I really hope you're wrong on your predictions.

I'm hoping to do some long distance(i.e. journey times of at least 4 hours or so) train and coach journeys next year. But if there is still the requirement to still wear these darn awful face masks, then I'll have to give those a miss. 4 hours or so wearing on a train/coach wearing an uncomfortable bit of cloth on my face, no way! Many people will feel the same too. It will put many people off from doing long distance train and coach journeys!

Also am hoping to do a couple of festivals next summer too, after this year's was a complete and utter write off. If the ban on mass gatherings continues until early 2022, then next year's festival season will be a complete and utter write off too! And if so, many of these festivals will not return. Which will be a disaster for the festivals/events industry. Whilst some festival organisers have already cancelled their festivals several months in advance, due to the uncertainty, many of them are still hopeful their festivals will be able to go ahead next year. Personally I feel those due to take place during the early to mid summer months being able to go ahead is still very uncertain at this stage - including the big one Glastonbury, those during the second half of summer have somewhat more chance of going ahead.

If a ban on mass gatherings does roll on for at least another year, there is a solid chance that few festivals will survive. The entertainment industry can't operate on fresh air, a lot companies in this field have already gone under including one that a friend of mine ran, and another year of this will kill off an awful lot more. Frankly anything more than a couple of months worth of restrictions is going to have devastating effects if they haven't already.

 

[LowLevel]

Depends when people are actually willing to have a vaccine. In the past week I've not yet met or heard of one other person who would be willing to have it in the near future. I was in the hairdressers on Wednesday evening waiting for a chair to become free and both the customers in the shop and the two barbers were talking about how they won't be having them.

Really? My Facebook is full of people answering "yes" to that "would you have the vaccine?" question.

I have a few people who are vehemently against it but they're vastly outnumbered.

I'd have it tomorrow - my own quality of life has been impacted by NHS care being dedicated to COVID meaning an operation I should have had in March or April is on the "who knows when?" list.

I poison myself with alcohol, eat unhealthy food and so on so it seems a bit hypocritical to decline a vaccine based on the UK's current angry "no one likes an expert" disbelief that it can possibly be safe. I trust the people I know who work in that line implicitly.

Notwithstanding all the above, I'm quite happy in my own safety in any case, I'm just getting on with life while attempting to not knowingly break the law. I go to the pub etc when I can, so yes, I will be back to normal ASAP regardless.

 

[birchesgreen]

I was watching a news channel (not a British one, they're all rubbish) yesterday, they had a medical expert (some prof) on about the vaccines. He said that the main reason these vaccines were here so quickly was not because of missing out scientific steps but largely due to the usual bureaucracy and marketing being missed out.

 

[LAX54]

The majority of us are not panic stricken and are simply getting on with our lives where we are allowed to. The sooner the unnecessary restrictions are lifted the sooner we will get back to pre covid living and start enjoying life again.

Yes, I have to agree, the 'majority' are not panic stricken, but there are quite a number, and they do seem very 'loud' in the concerns ! it just seems whenever anyone is interviewed on Tv or Radio, they seem to be (mostly) the doom and gloom merchants !

 

[Mojo]

Really? My Facebook is full of people answering "yes" to that "would you have the vaccine?" question.

I have a few people who are vehemently against it but they're vastly outnumbered.

Nice to know there’s at least one though. Everyone I’ve heard or spoken to however has said they would want to wait a year or two. This isn’t in my social circle but just people I’ve been speaking to at work or overheard when out and about.

Many people are beginning to accept that the majority of the population is such extremely low risk (and/or think they’ve already had before April), and therefore say they would rather wait & see of any potential impacts in the population that does take this vaccine before having it themselves.

 

[LowLevel]

Nice to know there’s at least one though. Everyone I’ve heard or spoken to however has said they would want to wait a year or two. This isn’t in my social circle but just people I’ve been speaking to at work or overheard when out and about.

Many people are beginning to accept that the majority of the population is such extremely low risk (and/or think they’ve already had before April), and therefore say they would rather wait & see of any potential impacts in the population that does take this vaccine before having it themselves.

I suppose much depends on your demographic. A lot of the older people I know are fed up with watching their limited remaining time tick away under restrictions and would happily take a risk on a vaccine to get back to doing what they want to do in the knowledge something will more than likely kill them sooner rather later.

Personally I'm quite happy to trust to it and the majority of people I know have said the same.

People who are sceptical of the process for something they don't understand or have any involvement in are quite reasonable and it is important to consider the chance that they will be correct and something could go wrong.

People who believe in microchips and other such rubbish however are symptomatic of one of the problems of the modern age. Everyone knows the media has an agenda and politicians have an agenda. Propaganda has always been a thing. But make a relatable video and put it on YouTube telling people that and adding some lunatic theory, while reassuring them that you only have their best interest at heart and suddenly Dave the village idiot everyone laughed at in the pub while he talked rubbish is getting a voice on the Internet and the other loonies are listening.

The second anyone smugly starts talking about "MSM" and other such junk I switch off and move on.

 

[PTR 444]

Maybe your right about masks, but I think. most people don’t currently expect them to be legally required after around next April / May providing everything goes ok with the vaccines

The requirement to wear masks in public and rule of 6 should really be revoked by March at the latest. Any longer would just be even more insult to injury for struggling businesses and public transport, especially after furlough ends.

 

[DustyBin]

Nice to know there’s at least one though. Everyone I’ve heard or spoken to however has said they would want to wait a year or two. This isn’t in my social circle but just people I’ve been speaking to at work or overheard when out and about.

Many people are beginning to accept that the majority of the population is such extremely low risk (and/or think they’ve already had before April), and therefore say they would rather wait & see of any potential impacts in the population that does take this vaccine before having it themselves.

This is similar to the conversations I’ve had. I should point out that none of the people I’ve spoken to are particularly vulnerable (but include a couple of healthy over 70’s).

I get the impression that a lot of people are delighted we have a vaccine as it should be our way out of this mess, but aren’t keen on being vaccinated themselves. They hope everybody else gets it so they don’t need to. It’s a bit like people supporting restrictions as long as they aren’t personally affected, in a way. That said I can understand why they’re reluctant, unless you’re in a vulnerable group there’s little incentive to rush to the front of the queue.

 

[NorthOxonian]

The requirement to wear masks in public and rule of 6 should really be revoked by March at the latest. Any longer would just be even more insult to injury for struggling businesses and public transport, especially after furlough ends.

And I suspect Johnson has one eye on the May local elections. He won many council seats in 2017 which would not ordinarily go Conservative, for example the two seats in Prudhoe in Northumberland. Holding these in normal times would be difficult but if he becomes more unpopular that would be impossible - and if Boris loses several hundred seats it's difficult to see him remaining as party leader.

Being able to claim victory and demonstrate that we're back to normal would be a massive vote winner. If we still have strong restrictions, then Farage's outfit will pick up votes - maybe not enough to win many seats, but enough to swing many marginal wards to Labour. Political concerns will mean he will push for many restrictions to be gone by May, and probably a bit earlier (since more people than usual will vote earlier using postal votes).

 

[bramling]

As a glasses wearer, I will probably die from an accident due to not being able to see due to steamed up glasses after putting a mask on than from Covid anyway! (Even worse now with the winter weather)

Coincidentally I had an antibody test which returned a positive result several months ago, but I still have to follow the restrictions even though I feel I don't really gain anything from doing so any more - justified by 'it doesn't prove you can't catch it again' (but based on what I've been reading, probably more chance of winning the lottery several times over!) and 'it doesn't prove you can't spread it to others' (but apparently the vaccine is in the same boat!)

Normality will eventually resume of course, just the new normal has been fast forwarded several years (accelerated death of the high street, less reliance on sitting in an actual office location 5 days a week due to technology)

Personally I won't be rushing to be vaccinated, but there will be plenty of people that will be

I’m not so sure about the last bit. Speaking to people at work, I struggle to find many who want to take it. Most people seem to fall into two groups - some who don’t really feel they need it and are simply lukewarm on vaccines, and others who aren’t in principle opposed to the idea but feel it’s all been put together that little bit quickly for their liking so want to give it time to see how it pans out.

Some people may have elements of both too, and I’d probably put myself in that box. If I was in my 80s then the scales would probably tip the other way.

There’s also people who have simply lost all confidence in the way this has been handled, by both the government and the scientists, so are now doing their own thing, and aren’t going to welcome Boris sticking some random substance into them.

Will this all prove a problem? Presumably not if most of the vulnerable people take it and it’s effective in mitigating the harmful symptoms.

And I suspect Johnson has one eye on the May local elections. He won many council seats in 2017 which would not ordinarily go Conservative, for example the two seats in Prudhoe in Northumberland. Holding these in normal times would be difficult but if he becomes more unpopular that would be impossible - and if Boris loses several hundred seats it's difficult to see him remaining as party leader.

Being able to claim victory and demonstrate that we're back to normal would be a massive vote winner. If we still have strong restrictions, then Farage's outfit will pick up votes - maybe not enough to win many seats, but enough to swing many marginal wards to Labour. Political concerns will mean he will push for many restrictions to be gone by May, and probably a bit earlier (since more people than usual will vote earlier using postal votes).

As things stand at the moment I’d be voting Farage. Not that I think that’s in any way a solution, but it seems the only way of registering a vote without voting for the others. At this point in time I feel unable to vote for any of the three established parties.

 

[yorksrob]

I think I can unequivocably say that I will take it when available.

It's an extra line of defence in case my elderly relatives are in the 5% for whom it wouldn't be effective. Also, I think it's worth having a stab at herd immunity.

I've not really asked many other people about it, but I've not noticed anyone saying anything to suggest that they wouldn't.

 

[greyman42]

I get the impression that a lot of people are delighted we have a vaccine as it should be our way out of this mess, but aren’t keen on being vaccinated themselves. They hope everybody else gets it so they don’t need to. It’s a bit like people supporting restrictions as long as they aren’t personally affected, in a way. That said I can understand why they’re reluctant, unless you’re in a vulnerable group there’s little incentive to rush to the front of the queue.

I don't think rushing to the front of the queue is an option whether people want it or not.

 

[DustyBin]

I don't think rushing to the front of the queue is an option whether people want it or not.

No that’s quite correct, not for a few months anyway.

 

[Class 33]

If a ban on mass gatherings does roll on for at least another year, there is a solid chance that few festivals will survive. The entertainment industry can't operate on fresh air, a lot companies in this field have already gone under including one that a friend of mine ran, and another year of this will kill off an awful lot more. Frankly anything more than a couple of months worth of restrictions is going to have devastating effects if they haven't already.

I certainly don't think a ban on mass gatherings will drag on for at least another year. Though whilst Johnson and some others are saying life should be back to normal by the spring/Easter(though one or two of them have actually said mid summer), whilst I think that may be the case, I think it's possible that bans on mass gatherings(i.e. proper mass gatherings of hundreds or thousands of people) may continue untill about mid summer/early July. In which case, that will mean a fair number of next year's festivals won't be able to go ahead. Additionally, festival organisers will ideally need at least 3 months notice really in advance of their intended festivals, whether social distancing is definitely being scrapped and the bans on mass gatherings scrapped and hence whether their festivals can definitely go ahead or not. Some of the festivals in early May for example, if the government still hasn't given the all clear by about early February and it's still looking uncertain by then, then the organisers will probably decide to cancel. And as you say, if some of these festivals have to cancel again for the second year in a row then they may well not return again unfortunately.

But as I posted in the other threat, according to Oliver Dowden the events industry should be back to complete normality by Easter. So if that happens, along with the government giving adequate advance notice of all these restrictions being lifted, then next year's festivals will all go ahead as hoped for. We shall see....

 

[Spartacus]

I'm happy to get the jab. Personally I think one way or another we'll be back to more or less normal by Easter, with possibly some restrictions when going into hospitals, GP's surgeries, possibly care homes, and some countries requiring vaccination for travel, as some do for certain virus' now.

Vaccine roll-out should be at a good level by March, particularly with different vaccines being rolled out, especially the Oxford/AstraZeneca one which seems the best current option for easy, world-wide use, you can transport it anywhere in a car powered cool box if necessary, I suspect the others which require special care may become reserved for giving to those admitted to hospitals who are already at risk.

Even if there are hiccups, if widespread restrictions continue after a year the political pressure to lift them for all but the most vulnerable will be overwhelming. I've always thought all the vaccination needs to do is bring Covid19 down to the level of 'flu, and all the vaccinations touted seem like they'll do that, or more. I'm totally with Jozhua.

I won't be happy if it drags on into April, I don't want to miss celebrating my 40th! After this year the vaccine hangover will be nothing compared to the one I intend to get!