Without additional funding from government there is a real risk to the survival of Eurostar

[Ianno87]

The prices have gone up due to the pandemic. I don't know if it's a temporary measure but I sure as hell hope it is. It makes sense though attempting to dissuade passengers at the moment in the name of safety. I hope that when things "return to normal" that the prices will drop pretty quickly for Joe Public.

What does "due to the pandemic" mean? Covid, in of itself, doesn't directly cause a price rise.

I'm guessing that the few passengers they do have are, by definition, for essential purposes, and so are more of a captive market thus charging rock-bottom fares makes no commercial sense, especially with loss of (presumably) nearly all top-end Business Premier revenue. And the latter won't be returning in any great hurry, so "bottom tier" prices must rise to compensate, when leisure travel (eventually) gets going again.

 

[AverageTD]

What does "due to the pandemic" mean? Covid, in of itself, doesn't directly cause a price rise.

I'm guessing that the few passengers they do have are, by definition, for essential purposes, and so are more of a captive market thus charging rock-bottom fares makes no commercial sense, especially with loss of (presumably) nearly all top-end Business Premier revenue. And the latter won't be returning in any great hurry, so "bottom tier" prices must rise to compensate, when leisure travel (eventually) gets going again.

I should've clarified. I presume it's to dissuade non-essential travellers as you said but there hasn't been any official statement on prices afaik.

 

[Ianno87]

I should've clarified. I presume it's to dissuade non-essential travellers as you said but there hasn't been any official statement on prices afaik.

Well, the £29 fares were pretty much intended solely for the leisure market and discretionary travel.

 

[mike57]

If Eurostar were to fail where would that leave HS1 and the tunnel, obviously the shuttle trains would continue. And there is the French side to consider as well. Would a new operator be able to come to agreement with all the various parties.

As someone who has used Eurostar for travel to Europe it would be a loss, our nearest regional airport is Humberside, but thats a 90min drive and relativly flight few choices, Leeds Bradford is 2 hours, and so is Teeside. We have fairly good access to London Kings Cross and an easy change to Eurostar. Train is actully quicker door to door for a lot of French and Belgium destinations from our area. Also a lot more pleasent than flying, and no strict baggage limits. We have usually ended up paying around £60-70 each single, as the timing of the really cheap fares hasnt suited our travel plans.

I can understand how the government would resist bailouts, but would the French, English and Belgium governments run an East Coast style direct operation covering the major destinations (London, Lille, Brussles, Paris) until the Covid crisis is over?

 

[jfisher21]

I can't see there being no European rail service from London for long, even if Eurostar did go bust.

 

[riceuten]

Why ? I think it's entirely possible if travel restrictions persist for any length of time. Or placing people in quarantine on their return.

 

[StephenHunter]

I think vaccine passports are more likely than that, but will take a couple of months.

 

[riceuten]

We haven't even got to which vaccine the authorities will accept. I don't expect a resolution of this before the end of the year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We haven't even got to which vaccine the authorities will accept. I don't expect a resolution of this before the end of the year.

I retain my view that international travel will be difficult for 3 to 5 years from the start of the pandemic.

 

[alex397]

I retain my view that international travel will be difficult for 3 to 5 years from the start of the pandemic.

I hope you are wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case.

This may sound ridiculous, but travelling around Europe feels like my only true achievement in my life, so it has been a bit gutting how I haven't been able to continue this, and won't be for some time if at all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This may sound ridiculous, but travelling around Europe feels like my only true achievement in my life, so it has been a bit gutting how I haven't been able to continue this, and won't be for some time if at all.

I'm sure you've achieved more and you're just doing yourself down

I'm equally sure you'll be able to do it again. Just enjoy travelling around the UK for a couple of years while it all calms down, as it will - no pandemic in history has ever lasted more than a few years and we've got a weapon (vaccines) they didn't.

 

[peteb]

I think that whatever the present government's attitude to europe, both it and the EU will seek to secure the future of Eurostar, even if this results in some form of nationalisation. Reliance on air is not sustainable and at some point London will feel the loss of these rail passengers, at which point I think a UK intervention is inevitable.

 

[alex397]

I'm sure you've achieved more and you're just doing yourself down

I'm equally sure you'll be able to do it again. Just enjoy travelling around the UK for a couple of years while it all calms down, as it will - no pandemic in history has ever lasted more than a few years and we've got a weapon (vaccines) they didn't.

Yes you are probably right. Before the pandemic though, it was one of the few things I had to look forward to, and could distract myself with planning for it. Whether it will be as easy to travel abroad again (and as affordable) remains to be seen. I also have increasing financial issues and other personal problems which may prevent me from travelling.

National travel will I’m sure be relatively easy again in the not too distant future, and there are plenty of excellent places in the UK I’d like to visit that I’ve never been to before (cities, museums, railways). International travel is another level though, with the different languages and culture.

Im sure there are more important issues to think about, and I’m perhaps being too pessimistic, but my mental health is really suffering at the moment.

Going back on topic, I agree with peteB above. Something will be kept, and I’d be surprised if there was no passenger train through the Chunnel at all. No matter how embarrassing our government is, they surely can’t let this fail.

 

[Purple Orange]

If it goes under, which I hope it does not, I doubt we will ever have a scenario where there is a Channel Tunnel with no services to/from St. Pancras. There is demand, but for obvious reasons that demand is suppressed. I’m hoping to use eurostar this summer, but if I can’t plans will be put off until next year. I don’t think I am the only one thinking along those lines.

 

[Starmill]

I imagine that the real reason for the £58 return being removed is because tickets can now be amended without a fee. They used to charge a whopping £30 before. The new cheapest rate is £78 return. In practice this is only available for a limited number of trains. A leisure traveller booking now is overwhelmingly looking at £85 - £100 round trips as the cheap rate, more on expensive weekends. It should be pointed out that Eurostar have had their fingers burnt a bit on refunds and rebookings and are now only selling a very small number of daily services, right through to November and December of 2021. No doubt sensible, even at this vantage it's very unclear what kind of traffic there will be then.

 

[Ianno87]

I imagine that the real reason for the £58 return being removed is because tickets can now be amended without a fee. They used to charge a whopping £30 before. The new cheapest rate is £78 return. In practice this is only available for a limited number of trains. A leisure traveller booking now is overwhelmingly looking at £85 - £100 round trips as the cheap rate, more on expensive weekends. It should be pointed out that Eurostar have had their fingers burnt a bit on refunds and rebookings and are now only selling a very small number of daily services, right through to November and December of 2021. No doubt sensible, even at this vantage it's very unclear what kind of traffic there will be then.

They have been very generous with offering vouchers.

We had an August 2020 tripped planned, which we cancelled for vouchers. The re-booked for October, amended that fee-free to this month, but then cancelled again for vouchers.

Those were to expire end of June, but soon got extended to expire in December (book by, but can travel after this well into 2022).

In my view, they have been more than generous with this.

 

[Starmill]

They have been very generous with offering vouchers.

We had an August 2020 tripped planned, which we cancelled for vouchers. The re-booked for October, amended that fee-free to this month, but then cancelled again for vouchers.

Those were to expire end of June, but soon got extended to expire in December (book by, but can travel after this well into 2022).

In my view, they have been more than generous with this.

My trains have all been cancelled anyway, so I've rebooked into the future each time for every ticket. I don't have any complaints, but given almost all trains are cancelled, free rebooking is something they're obliged to offer. The £30 fee has been removed from an elective rebooking by way of a voucher , as you say.

 

[StephenHunter]

England will allow foreign holidays from 17 May at the earliest, subject to a review published 12 April.

 

[Larkhall]

Eurostar is still awaiting details from both the UK and French Governments regarding promised financial support, but told RAIL it remains encouraged by previous positive comments.

Bit of a non-update, but at least there are not outright refusals from both governments.

Eurostar awaits confirmation on financial support

Eurostar still waiting for details regarding promised financial support

www.railmagazine.com

 

[Watershed]

England will allow foreign holidays from 17 May at the earliest, subject to a review published 12 April.

As soon as the ban on leaving home without a reasonable excuse finishes, putatively on 29 March, travel of all description - whether foreign or domestic - will be legally permissible.

From that point onwards it will be a question of the requirements and impositions that apply on entry to your destination, and on return to the UK. Until those become less onerous, foreign travel will remain unattractive.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

The real reason prices have gone up is very simple: due to lockdown only essential travel is permitted. This means demand is fairly price inelastic as the demand decreases less in proportion to the price increase as the reasons for peoples travel mean the very option of not travelling or looking for a more competitive alternative are themselves less likey or possible. Essentially people who are travelling dont have the flexibility of when or how they travel anymore due to their motives for travel being more urgent.

Furthermore due to social distancing even with a reduced service running each train makes less money as they can only sell half the number of seats due to seperation requirements, so even with the trains they do run to make a nearer normal amount of revenue you'd have to raise faires by double the amout to meet pre pandemic revenue per train, not to mention costs of running the service have increased too due to extra cleaning requirements. So even the imcrease in prices that we have seen dont even begin to cover the loss in reality

 

[paul1609]

I retain my view that international travel will be difficult for 3 to 5 years from the start of the pandemic.

Ironically some of my contacts through railway preservation work in the aviation business, they are saying that the industry doesn't anticipate that the 2019 level of demand will return for 10 years now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ironically some of my contacts through railway preservation work in the aviation business, they are saying that the industry doesn't anticipate that the 2019 level of demand will return for 10 years now.

My hope would be that aviation demand will never return to 2019 levels - we really need to end our addiction to that environmentally unfriendly mode of transport. A 1990s level of demand would be more sustainable.

I more refer to how long it'll be before international travel isn't awkward, e.g. requiring masks, proving test results, quarantines changing on short notice and other associated faff.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Modern Railways (March) has an analysis of the Eurostar situation.
If Eurostar does fail commercially, the anticipation is that it will not be straightforward for another licensed operator to surface and restart services quickly.
A lot depends on the attitude of SNCF at the top level, having sunk a lot of cash into the current operation - Thalys is also badly affected.
It turns out most of the stock is already mortgaged in the current climate, much like easyJet's planes.
There are any number of parties with fingers in the pie (governments, banks, pension companies etc), and the UK (DfT/Treasury) is standing back from it all as they have "sold off" their commercial interests to others, unlike the FR and BE governments.

You only have to look at the airlines to see how prices are going.
Simon Calder was complaining last week that Gatwick-Geneva was going for over £1000 at the moment, instead of the usual £59 or so, often less.
All the commercial players are desperate to make up the billions they have lost in the last 12 months, and while competition will help, any expectation of bargain fares will soon evaporate as operators need to service their massive debts.
Summer holidays are already at a hefty premium from last year.
Air fares soar as UK airlines seek to staunch losses | The Independent

Over the weekend of 31 July and 1 August, the cheapest one-week holidays from Birmingham airport to Spain are priced at over £2,000 for a family of four (including two children under 12). A package to Benidorm or Alcudia, Mallorca, including flights, transfer and a self-catering apartments, costs £506 per person.

 

[BahrainLad]

Calder is talking nonsense as per usual. Assuming unlockdown goes well, airlines will rapidly add more flights into the schedule, particularly for European destination and particularly for peak season in 2022. They will desperately want to stimulate demand and you don't do that by ripping people off.

I have family in Portugal and flew down there late August last year during the brief period when the country was on the safe travel list, at very short notice the airlines stuffed in many new services, so that on certain days BA were operating up to 9 flights to Faro from Heathrow and City. That's before you add in EZ etc. In 18 years of flying to Faro the max BA has been 4 a day at the height of summer.

 

[StephenHunter]

The demand appears to be very much there.

 

[Chester1]

Added to that continuing the advice to work from home which looks like could continue indefinitely, while it does not on paper shut anything down, it does make many sectors of the economy unviable. Think of all those who clean offices, office receptionists and security guards, coffeeshops and takeaways serving office workers, shoe repair shops, etc. These sectors must provide a great many jobs. The longer the working from home advice continues, the more these parts of the economy will be in trouble.

I know there are those who say much greater working from home would have happened anyway, which may indeed have been the case, however it would have happened over a period of 10 to 20 years allowing those sectors to readjust.

There has been a surge in the number of new companies created. The economy will adapt to the post pandemic norm, the abruptness will cause harm to individuals affected but the end result will be very similar to a gradual process. Reducing manpower and building costs will make goods and services cheaper. The benefit of this will be felt in other parts of the economy. Airlines (and Eurostar) should focus more on the leisure market after the pandemic. There is chunk of people who will have more disposable income after the pandemic.

If it goes under, which I hope it does not, I doubt we will ever have a scenario where there is a Channel Tunnel with no services to/from St. Pancras. There is demand, but for obvious reasons that demand is suppressed. I’m hoping to use eurostar this summer, but if I can’t plans will be put off until next year. I don’t think I am the only one thinking along those lines.

Bit of a non-update, but at least there are not outright refusals from both governments.

Eurostar awaits confirmation on financial support

Eurostar still waiting for details regarding promised financial support

www.railmagazine.com

As I have said before Eurostar isn't desperate for money. Its playing politics. It has refused to offer any of its fleet as security for UK government loans (as airlines have done). The value of its fleet is much more than its current debts. Our government is waiting for that or money for shares to bail them out. Thats quite right, the taxpayer isn't a charity and there are multiple ways of securing its goal (maintaining an economically useful international rail service) without giving money away or offering unsecured loans. If Eurostar dug in, refused conditional help and went into administration the Government could buy the fleet from administrators and start a new company. There would likely be a temporary gap but that wouldn't be economically important.

My hope would be that aviation demand will never return to 2019 levels - we really need to end our addiction to that environmentally unfriendly mode of transport. A 1990s level of demand would be more sustainable.

I more refer to how long it'll be before international travel isn't awkward, e.g. requiring masks, proving test results, quarantines changing on short notice and other associated faff.

Never?! What about electric planes? Correct me if I am wrong but I think you are in your 30s or 40s, based on previous posts? We should both easily live to see all short haul flights go fully electric. At that point there is no ethical argument in favour of rail over flying for international travel or on limiting flying. I can see your point in the next 20-30 years but no sane government that wants to get re-elected will delibrately reduce international travel. There should be tax changes to nudge towards artificial kerosene and hybrid planes as a stop gap for a generation. I would support an Air France style ban on sale of point to point tickets for journeys within a reasonable distance. In the case of London-Paris/Brussels/Amsterdam either heavy price controls or a second rail operator would be necessary to avoid abuse of a monopoly position.

 

[Ianno87]

The demand appears to be very much there.

I wonder what value e* currently have in changeable bookings and vouchers, ready to travel as soon as things get easier.

 

[StephenHunter]

They extended the vouchers until the end of the year. I have one from the aborted trip to Munich I hope to redo in the autumn.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Never?! What about electric planes? Correct me if I am wrong but I think you are in your 30s or 40s, based on previous posts? We should both easily live to see all short haul flights go fully electric. At that point there is no ethical argument in favour of rail over flying for international travel or on limiting flying.

Fair point, provided all the electricity they are using is generated by non-fossil means. If "fuelling" electric planes meant firing a coal or gas fired power station up, then that's only slightly better than just burning the fossil fuel in the jet engines. Fundamentally air travel is very energy-hungry because not only do you need to shove the metal tube full of seats along, but you also need to hold it up, and it's quite heavy.

If it was all from nuclear, solar, wind etc then you'd be right.