Anyone noticed anecdotally another uptick in passenger numbers

[Peter Sarf]

There has not been a journey of over 50 miles that I have taken in the last 12 to 18 months where there hasn't been some form of disruption and a good few under the 50 or 60 mile threshold as well, especially when said journey involves Thameslink in or out of North Kent or the Elizabeth line
Has somebody said above, it's a minor miracle that passenger numbers have climbed back largely to pre-pandemic levels, somehow doubt they will do a great deal of growing while the current order persists

I think one concern is that the big loss in numbers has been travel associated with season tickets so there is a nice wedge of income up front gone missing. It is more a rise in off peak travel compared to a loss of peak travel.

Going back in time to the invention of the cheap day return. It was always a device to fill underused off peak services. Perhaps we have at last achieved that - bye bye off peak returns (I hope not).

I am seeing a pressure for people to return to working from work.

I've been around London early this Sunday morning. No Marathon or similar. Grey, cold, wet and windy. Yet the trains are notably busy. District Line from Earls Court to Paddington, a less-frequented branch, was well-filled. Elizabeth arriving at Paddington at 0900 from Reading, not Heathrow, full and standing (including one with a real Penny Farthing bicycle!).

I did notice the trains well-filled but the buses empty.

My bold - I do hope it was a folding bike !.

Hopefully. Another part of the problem is the shorter trains just outside of the peaks, I'm finding it can be close to full and standing on the five car services.

A lot of my journey are off peak Monday-Friday.
East Croydon to Victoria 10:00-12:00 these are getting very crowded meaning platform dwell time at East Croydon gets extended. These seem to be mainly 8 car services where 12car would have been the norm before Covid. So would need these services to be 150% loaded to justify return to 12 coaches. Obviously some would be extended first leaving others to catch up later.
Back to East Croydon from London, usually 18:00 or later, I find both Thames link and Victoria routes are busy, possibly Thameslink worse.

Also yesterday (Saturday) East Croydon to Victoria at about 17:40 8car was standing passengers. I really struggled to get from the rear to the front. Got a seat at Clapham Junction.

 

[PGAT]

So would need these services to be 150% loaded to justify return to 12 coaches.

Not really true though, 150% would be the threshold where you just cannot support more passengers

 

[Bald Rick]

Elizabeth arriving at Paddington at 0900 from Reading, not Heathrow, full and standing (including one with a real Penny Farthing bicycle!).

Mr Rees-Mogg off to church, one presumes.

 

[Taunton]

I do hope it was a folding bike !.

Full size one. Would be interesting at the gateline. But there it was.

Mr Rees-Mogg off to church, one presumes.

In that case he's sprouted the most enormous full size beard since last on TV

 

[Snow1964]

Interesting written Government reply to adjusting the timetable as passenger numbers rise, make of it what you will

Lord Davies of Gower
Conservative
Life peer
Lords

Answered on​

29 April 2024
As the pandemic has changed travel habits, train operators are using this opportunity to reassess their services to provide rail timetables that respond to new passenger travel patterns, and carefully balance cost, capacity and performance.
Timetables should be demand-led and built with flexibility in mind, so if passenger numbers increase as we continue to recover from the pandemic, we can look to accommodate additional services. Where operators have modified their timetables, the changes are kept under review and, where appropriate, adjusted to reflect fluctuations in demand. Additional services will be included in the upcoming timetable change.

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-04-18/hl3933

 

[Taunton]

I think in the short term the timetable is broadly adequate, but the number of vehicles provided is something that can be more rapidly addressed. In particular this applies to situations where passengers who by this stage have actually been sold tickets are being left behind due to gross under capacity, while stock is left in sidings and depots.

The railway used to be much better at this. I recall on the Wirral electric lines in past times it was a local decision, almost by the hour and certainly on the day before, to judge whether weekend services should be 3-car or 6-car. If under-provided, there was a further plan on how to get the extras out. Nowadays such ability by staff on the ground seems swept away, someone at HQ budgeted their vehicle mileage, likely for the year, someone else has devised a minimal-staff maintenance plan to fit that, and it seems it must not be touched whatever arises on the day.

All through lockdown we had full length trains run as empty stock because they were "justified for essential workers", despite the fact that not only had the regular passengers deserted them, but so had the essential workers as well, who found that with much quieter roads the car was better. Finally coming to a reduced operation, just as the passengers progressively come back, it seems the organisation is typically years behind the demand.

 

[Snow1964]

DfT has updated their spreadsheet vs pre-covid

Most recent figures is 100% or 90% (excluding Elizabeth line) columns G and H

It is varying quite a bit, through the month, with recent high around 16th April was 103% and 93%, but percentages get dips during ASLEF disruption antics

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

Of course that 90% national average is probably masking some big variations with some operators probably 10-20% above and others 10-20% below. Locally on some lines could be higher.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

DfT has updated their spreadsheet vs pre-covid

Most recent figures is 100% or 90% (excluding Elizabeth line) columns G and H

It is varying quite a bit, through the month, with recent high around 16th April was 103% and 93%, but percentages get dips during ASLEF disruption antics

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

Of course that 90% national average is probably masking some big variations with some operators probably 10-20% above and others 10-20% below. Locally on some lines could be higher.

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

 

[Bletchleyite]

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

I think there is more to go once the disputes are resolved.

 

[Bald Rick]

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

Still loads of ‘room’ to grow, especially off peak.

 

[Mag_seven]

I passed through a major London terminal at 11.00 this morning and was amazed at how busy it was for a mid-week, mid-morning during school term. Lots of obviously leisure travellers with suitcases etc.

 

[railfan99]

I passed through a major London terminal at 11.00 this morning and was amazed at how busy it was for a mid-week, mid-morning during school term. Lots of obviously leisure travellers with suitcases etc.

Which terminal? Great to hear, despite it only being your spring, not 'super peak' summer.

 

[ChrisC]

I think there is more to go once the disputes are resolved.

There must be lots of people who are not currently making plans for future travel by rail whilst there is the possibility of strike action. I would usually have a number of trips away booked now for the coming months which would involve rail travel and even use of regional rovers. I currently have hotels booked for the end of June and end of July but in locations where I will be taking my car. I’d love to be able to confidently be able to book hotels for the second half of this year that would involve travelling by rail.

 

[yorksrob]

DfT has updated their spreadsheet vs pre-covid

Most recent figures is 100% or 90% (excluding Elizabeth line) columns G and H

It is varying quite a bit, through the month, with recent high around 16th April was 103% and 93%, but percentages get dips during ASLEF disruption antics

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

Of course that 90% national average is probably masking some big variations with some operators probably 10-20% above and others 10-20% below. Locally on some lines could be higher.

Of course, the excuses will flow like wine from the Government to justify the continued fleecing of passengers.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Of course, the excuses will flow like wine from the Government to justify the continued fleecing of passengers.

Trouble is the current government would prefer for the passengers to pay their way rather than the tax payer have to pay for the passengers. Lets face it a lot of money was spent getting us through Covid. I doubt if there is much borrowing power left to further subsidise things.

I have dreams but no plans of trips involving rail travel as it is too risky and expensive anyway. Hotels seem to be pricey as well.

 

[yorksrob]

Trouble is the current government would prefer for the passengers to pay their way rather than the tax payer have to pay for the passengers. Lets face it a lot of money was spent getting us through Covid. I doubt if there is much borrowing power left to further subsidise things.

I have dreams but no plans of trips involving rail travel as it is too risky and expensive anyway. Hotels seem to be pricey as well.

Yes, the Government was happy to run empty trains around the place but is less keen now that people want to use them.

 

[The exile]

There must be lots of people who are not currently making plans for future travel by rail whilst there is the possibility of strike action. I would usually have a number of trips away booked now for the coming months which would involve rail travel and even use of regional rovers. I currently have hotels booked for the end of June and end of July but in locations where I will be taking my car. I’d love to be able to confidently be able to book hotels for the second half of this year that would involve travelling by rail.

I may have said this on this thread before - if so apologies. Pre strikes I was purchasing a monthly ticket and therefore commuting by train most days in every month - accepting that there would be the odd day when I had to drive which I couldn’t calculate in at the time of purchase. Now I’m on weekly tickets, I will not purchase one (and therefore drive the whole week) if I know there’s going to be any day in that week when I either need to drive to work or won’t be going in at all - so my own regular rail use is down about 50%.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I may have said this on this thread before - if so apologies. Pre strikes I was purchasing a monthly ticket and therefore commuting by train most days in every month - accepting that there would be the odd day when I had to drive which I couldn’t calculate in at the time of purchase. Now I’m on weekly tickets, I will not purchase one (and therefore drive the whole week) if I know there’s going to be any day in that week when I either need to drive to work or won’t be going in at all - so my own regular rail use is down about 50%.

Part of this will be a habit that will take time to die out. BUT how much of a habit is it and how long will it take to die out I don't know. Probably too long.

A parallel (not directly connected to the railways and not Exacerbated by strikes) is that a group of us used to frequent a Wetherspoons once a week. There were some exceptions. Since Covid we might meet up once every four to six months. The habit has gone. This was similar to optional travel but there now seems to be a reticence amongst commuters to do what was once deemed essential travel.

Commuting figures will struggle because no one really wants to go through the time consuming expense that is the ordeal of being on a crowded train. The genie is out of the bottle since Covid - home working is possible. Home working is not ideal particularly from the employers point of view but most employees are unlikely to want to go back to that effort and ordeal of commuting again. So its as little working in the office as possible.

 

[Verulamius]

Just commuted into Canary Wharf from St Albans today. Using contactless it was off peak pricing as it was a Friday thanks to the Mayor of London.

Is there any evidence that this is resulting in an increase in peak hours travel?

 

[PGAT]

Might be too early to tell

 

[Peter Sarf]

Just commuted into Canary Wharf from St Albans today. Using contactless it was off peak pricing as it was a Friday thanks to the Mayor of London.

Is there any evidence that this is resulting in an increase in peak hours travel?

Does this risk reducing peak travel on Monday to Thursday, thus reducing peak fare income on those days ?.

 

[43066]

Commuting figures will struggle because no one really wants to go through the time consuming expense that is the ordeal of being on a crowded train. The genie is out of the bottle since Covid - home working is possible. Home working is not ideal particularly from the employers point of view but most employees are unlikely to want to go back to that effort and ordeal of commuting again. So its as little working in the office as possible.

Although, as discussed on the thread about Waterloo passenger numbers, commuting is growing rapidly again, as employers are increasingly expecting their staff back in the office. Ultimately it isn’t just down to the individual.

 

[Snow1964]

Commuting figures will struggle because no one really wants to go through the time consuming expense that is the ordeal of being on a crowded train. The genie is out of the bottle since Covid - home working is possible. Home working is not ideal particularly from the employers point of view but most employees are unlikely to want to go back to that effort and ordeal of commuting again. So its as little working in the office as possible.

From what I am hearing, many employers are getting tough, expecting 3 or 4 days per week minimum in the office. They pay the wages, they make the rules.

It is all to do with mentoring, training, professional development, sharing team ideas. Basically most employers have found productivity is drifting and succession has become a nightmare as those working mainly from home rarely pass on skills and knowledge.

One change (from what I hear) is that many huge companies have set up big regional offices (Birmingham, Leeds, Bristol, Manchester etc) and leaving Canary Wharf, returning London operations to City of London. Unfortunately for the railways haven't been able to move the spare commuter stock to growing areas as many provincial cities still rely on diesel power on many lines.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Although, as discussed on the thread about Waterloo passenger numbers, commuting is growing rapidly again, as employers are increasingly expecting their staff back in the office. Ultimately it isn’t just down to the individual.

I agree the pressure to return to the office will primarily come from the employer. A benefit is people get more social interaction - I would certainly notice that personally. Some people I know hated working from home either because of loneliness or predominantly a crowded house.

From what I am hearing, many employers are getting tough, expecting 3 or 4 days per week minimum in the office. They pay the wages, they make the rules.

It is all to do with mentoring, training, professional development, sharing team ideas. Basically most employers have found productivity is drifting and succession has become a nightmare as those working mainly from home rarely pass on skills and knowledge.

One change (from what I hear) is that many huge companies have set up big regional offices (Birmingham, Leeds, Bristol, Manchester etc) and leaving Canary Wharf, returning London operations to City of London. Unfortunately for the railways haven't been able to move the spare commuter stock to growing areas as many provincial cities still rely on diesel power on many lines.

Most common I am aware of is 60% office and 40% home. Now being defined more precisely as one employer was finding the rule had been interpreted as three very short days in the office and two long days at home. Bit naive of the employer to not be more specific and mention hours in the first place.

I agree there is a lot more than just simple productive work that goes on in the office and the lack of those activities will be coming home to roost sooner or later. The challenge will be not losing staff who have got accustomed to working next to their bed and dining table.

I know someone who since Covid has become a workaholic doing three days in the office and more or less four long days at home. Really having to get him to realise his situation. I was the type who could not work at home (discipline ?) although I often took problems home in my mind and had the answer the next day. But there are those who need to be able to go home leaving work behind.

One person I know has been told she can go to her normal Cardiff Office or visit London colleagues at the central London office. This was prompted by the knowledge she had relatives she could visit in London coupled with the fact the central London office is no longer full. Indeed an outer London office has closed which puzzled me as I think it was the roots of the company and also nicer for those who lived nearby (so fitting your point about more convenient offices - I suppose it could be dictated by which leases a company can get out of first).

 

[JonathanH]

From what I am hearing, many employers are getting tough, expecting 3 or 4 days per week minimum in the office. They pay the wages, they make the rules.

Definitely not happening in my workplace. Some companies will continue to differentiate themselves by not requiring staff to adhere to such presenteeism requirements. Ultimately it will be up to different companies to set their requirements with a balance of cost savings for office space, a grown up debate about productivity and colleagues delivering work in line with expectations.

The challenge will be not losing staff who have got accustomed to working next to their bed and dining table.

Yes. The potential for offshoring work is also in the back of the mind of employers. If a company starts to make global sourcing of work part of its plans, it then makes a mockery of making people come in an office if the team is based in more than one country.

 

[yorksrob]

Who knows what effect AI will have on employment and consequently commuting over the next few years. The industry should continue cultivating leisure travel IMO.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Definitely not happening in my workplace. Some companies will continue to differentiate themselves by not requiring staff to adhere to such presenteeism requirements. Ultimately it will be up to different companies to set their requirements with a balance of cost savings for office space, a grown up debate about productivity and colleagues delivering work in line with expectations.


Yes. The potential for offshoring work is also in the back of the mind of employers. If a company starts to make global sourcing of work part of its plans, it then makes a mockery of making people come in an office if the team is based in more than one country.

Offshoring is a big risk for employees when WFH all the time, what's the difference between a team call in the UK and someone sitting half way around the world.

More and more employers are insisting on office attendance at least twice a week, interestingly though if they go to 3 times a week then there is no savings on office space.

 

[43066]

Definitely not happening in my workplace. Some companies will continue to differentiate themselves by not requiring staff to adhere to such presenteeism requirements. Ultimately it will be up to different companies to set their requirements with a balance of cost savings for office space, a grown up debate about productivity and colleagues delivering work in line with expectations.

Whatever may be happening in your workplace (out of interest, which industry are you in?), the general trend amongst those working in white collar/professional type roles in the London area is an increasing expectation that people return to the office, and that’s being reflected in commuting figures. That’s certainly also the experience of people in my circle.

The signs are that the Covid prompted move to unlimited home working was an aberration, rather than the permanent change some people thought (and hoped) it was!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The signs are that the Covid prompted move to home working was an aberration, rather than the permanent change some people thought (ans hoped) it was!

Partly. The return is in almost no case to a full week in the office. In particular almost nobody goes in on a Friday in professional jobs - that was to an extent the case before COVID but is much more obviously so now. I've been in our office on a Friday and it's been just me!

Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (with its amusing acronym) is very much the norm for many now.

 

[Iskra]

Partly. The return is in almost no case to a full week in the office. In particular almost nobody goes in on a Friday in professional jobs - that was to an extent the case before COVID but is much more obviously so now. I've been in our office on a Friday and it's been just me!

Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (with its amusing acronym) is very much the norm for many now.

This correlates strongly with what I see.