Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[Meerkat]

Why is a multi-day discount needed at all? Weekly capping would provide a limit on expenditure with everything else PAYG.

That is no different - you would still have a weekly the same price as a three day ticket.
Or are you questioning the whole principle of season tickets?

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is no different - you would still have a weekly the same price as a three day ticket.
Or are you questioning the whole principle of season tickets?

I believe so. I'd be interested to know what the effect of PAYG with capping has been on the number of Travelcard seasons sold, for instance.

 

[The Ham]

There's still a massive financial difference between a £30k new car (however you pay for it) and a £10k or cheaper older car

I have an 18 year old Ford Focus which I use for certain leisure journeys, doing 2000 to 3000 miles a year as for some trips, public transport really doesn't work well, and that's for someone living in London which has far better public transport than the rest of the country. The family car is still massively convenient even if you don't use it that often, especially if you have children, elderly parents, need to take stuff to the tip, want to go to the countryside, self catering holidays etc

Indeed, a £30,000 car is likely to cost something like £5,000 a year, whilst a £10,000 one would be cheaper, but still a fair amount of money.

Let's assume that you but a car for £10,000 and then sell it for £2,000 8 years later that's a cost of £1,000 per year in just purchase costs. Now compare that to a season ticket that's likely to be about (given that you're doing an average of 12 miles a day if the car is for work purposes) £1,000 a year then you've got all your other car ownership costs you still have to pay.

Let's assume that's £1,000 (fuel costs, insurance, MOT, maintenance, VED, etc.), that money could be used for other travel options over the year. For instance hiring a car at £35/day that's 28 days of car hire that you could still have access to a car, therefore with fuel it'll be a few days less than this. At 20 days use then that's an average of 150 miles a day to hit 3,000 miles a year. For sorter trips (say 7 miles) a taxi would cost a similar amount.

However, £1,000 for all your other car costs isn't a lot, not when your likely to be spending £250 on fuel (if not more), tyres need replacing (even 2 full sets over 8 years at £200 each set is another £50 a year), VED, servicing, MOT & maintenance cost, insurance and maybe breakdown cover.

Even little things, like infrequent parking costs, can soon add up. For instance parking charges of £4 a month is the best part of £50 a year.

There's also the fact that, whilst in lockdown cars are still costing most of their costs but being used hardly at all, unlike public transport where you only pay for what you use.

Now yes, is unlikely that knowing the true cost of your car is unlikely to result in people not having any car in their household, it is very likely to reduce the number of 2+ car households.

Especially where that's in conjunction with both halves of a couple working from home 2 days a week and then only needing to use public transport 1 day a week on average and some occasional other times when one is needed in the office on a working from home day.

Even a 10% fall in households with 2 or more cars would result in a ~2% drop in car ownership. Which may not sound a lot, but given that there's 32 million cars, that's 600,000 fewer cars on the roads.

 

[jon0844]

The industry has talked about flexible season tickets for some time, and some of the new franchises are bound to introduce it, but it would be certainly good for the RDG to speed up the introduction of such a thing to allow for more people to carry on working from home once or twice a week in the future.

Putting carnet tickets onto a smartcard and requiring validation before use would seem like a pretty good start. This means it doesn't matter if a smartcard is shared, and the TOC gets the money up front. The user has some protection if the smartcard is lost too. The railway has protection in that an unvalidated smartcard on any given day would lead to a penalty and/or prosecution.

That would likely suit a lot of people who may find their job becomes a lot more flexible in the future.

 

[HH]

The industry has talked about flexible season tickets for some time, and some of the new franchises are bound to introduce it, but it would be certainly good for the RDG to speed up the introduction of such a thing to allow for more people to carry on working from home once or twice a week in the future.

Putting carnet tickets onto a smartcard and requiring validation before use would seem like a pretty good start. This means it doesn't matter if a smartcard is shared, and the TOC gets the money up front. The user has some protection if the smartcard is lost too. The railway has protection in that an unvalidated smartcard on any given day would lead to a penalty and/or prosecution.

That would likely suit a lot of people who may find their job becomes a lot more flexible in the future.

It won't be RDG, it will be Williams/DfT; it can be done as part of the EMA. Otherwise it will again be consigned to the "too difficult" pile.

 

[Mikey C]

I believe so. I'd be interested to know what the effect of PAYG with capping has been on the number of Travelcard seasons sold, for instance.

It's definitely reduced the attractiveness, along with other quirks such as the extortionate Z1 prices encouraging people to get a season ticket covering to Z2 then changing to a bus, which I see many people doing at St John's Wood station for example

An annual 1-3 travelcard costs £1696, if I was able to walk or take a bus from the edge of zone 2 I could reduce it to £1080

Of course none of this benefits people outside the TfL area who don't have the option of capping

 

[reddragon]

If I drive into my local town, in my car, the fuel cost is £2 return, so why would I pay £6 for the train?
If I drive into my local town, in my car it takes around 40 minutes each way, so why would I go by train that takes 10 minutes?
If I drive into my local town, in my car, parking costs £14 for the day, so why would I take the train?
If I drive into my local town, in my car, the total cost is £5 return, plus £14 parking and it costs me 1 hour extra time, so why would I pay £6 for the train?

You are not comparing apples with apples.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I drive into my local town, the service is door to door and departs and arrives whenever I want it to, so why would I go by train?

This is the "killer app" of the car.

 

[reddragon]

If I drive into my local town, the service is door to door and departs and arrives whenever I want it to, so why would I go by train?

This is the "killer app" of the car.

You are on the wrong forum clearly, there must be one for cars?

The railways are always of a benefit to some, whereas the car is beneficial to others.

The "killer app" of the train to my son is that, its reliable, quicker, cheaper, he can use his phone on the journey rather than wasting it driving a car. He just says "why would I want to drive when I could be online doing stuff?"

The killer app for me on some journeys is that when the company is paying, I can chill, relax, go online & do work rather than when I get home. I could list many other reasons.

 

[Mikey C]

If I drive to Tesco's, it takes 10 minutes, costs minimal petrol (comparable or less to the bus fare in London) and there are no parking costs

More importantly I can fill the boot with shopping, far more than I could do if on the bus or if I was walking

Indeed the ability to carry "stuff" is a major reason why people like to have a car in addition to using public transport, home delivery is an answer but not a complete one

 

[Meerkat]

Indeed the ability to carry "stuff" is a major reason why people like to have a car in addition to using public transport,

Especially with British weather. You can chuck a load of spare clothes in the car to cover weather variability (plus food and drink). Go by train and you have to lug all that about or take your chances (and probably have to walk much further too!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

You are on the wrong forum clearly, there must be one for cars?

Understanding and accepting your adversary is essential in competing with them effectively.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed the ability to carry "stuff" is a major reason why people like to have a car in addition to using public transport, home delivery is an answer but not a complete one

You've also got "bus/walk to the supermarket, taxi back". But to me the spread of good quality small local shops is also significant as it shifts the model from "buy loads once a month and fill the freezer" to "buy little and often" (the likes of Tesco Express, Sainsbury's Local, Co-op etc replacing often poorly stocked and expensive independents, though if you like independents there's a few buying co-operatives that look a lot more like chains these days, e.g. Spar, Nisa and Budgens).

 

[reddragon]

If I drive to Tesco's, it takes 10 minutes, costs minimal petrol (comparable or less to the bus fare in London) and there are no parking costs

More importantly I can fill the boot with shopping, far more than I could do if on the bus or if I was walking

Indeed the ability to carry "stuff" is a major reason why people like to have a car in addition to using public transport, home delivery is an answer but not a complete one

Considering of course that you can afford either a house with off-road parking or the parking permit somewhere near where you live!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Considering of course that you can afford either a house with off-road parking or the parking permit somewhere near where you live!

In no case is a parking permit an even vaguely substantial sum of money compared with the full cost of owning and running a car. I get that it might upset people having to pay it, but it is noise-level. Cars are expensive to run, even bangers.

 

[reddragon]

In no case is a parking permit an even vaguely substantial sum of money compared with the full cost of owning and running a car. I get that it might upset people having to pay it, but it is noise-level. Cars are expensive to run, even bangers.

Try insuring a teenager!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Latest data on passenger usage of national rail used in daily govt briefings has it down at 1% of normal so its extraordinary the level of the service that is still being run if correct. However, whilst im not travelling myself, i suspect the data is flawed as i believes it uses gateline counts AIUI from others working is they are being left open to keep staff away from passengers.

 

[The Ham]

If I drive to Tesco's, it takes 10 minutes, costs minimal petrol (comparable or less to the bus fare in London) and there are no parking costs

More importantly I can fill the boot with shopping, far more than I could do if on the bus or if I was walking

Indeed the ability to carry "stuff" is a major reason why people like to have a car in addition to using public transport, home delivery is an answer but not a complete one

I have two questions, why is home delivery not a complete answer?

Do you know the full extent of owning your car, including maintenance (not just servicing), insurance, parking charges, purchase costs, breakdown cover, and so on? As that would give you the true cost per mile of your car, I suspect that for most people that it's actually much higher than they think.

The cost per mile is likely to increase quite a bit for those who work from home more. As whilst the overall cost will fall it's not going to fall as much as the number of miles which are undertaken.

As an example if someone does 8,000 miles a year costs then 45p/mile and 80% of their miles are for to/from work (25 mile round trip) and that falls to 5,440 miles if they work from home 2 days a week. Even with non fuel costs (previously 35p/mile) falling overall by 10% (and I would suggest that few non fuel costs are directly related to distance traveled, least of all not VED, breakdown cover and parking charges; with the exception of work based ones) the cost per mile goes up to around the 55p mark.

In the recent example of why would you pay the £6 return for the train Vs the £2 in fuel costs, well £2 is likely to be a 20 mile round trip. If the per mile cost of your car is 30p/mile or more then the train is cheaper.

If course that does lead to the question of do you need to go into town anyway?

Given lockdown, many people have looked at what they do and changed their habits, of you live without a car you just don't make so many trips. As an example, you have a cheque to pay in then use your local Post Office which can pay in cheques to quite a few current accounts.

Yes you may need to plan ahead a bit more, but by going to town once a month rather than most weeks, even if it takes an hour extra to do so when you do go in, then this actually result in the individual having more time.

 

[Killingworth]

Latest data on passenger usage of national rail used in daily govt briefings has it down at 1% of normal so its extraordinary the level of the service that is still being run if correct. However, whilst im not travelling myself, i suspect the data is flawed as i believes it uses gateline counts AIUI from others working is they are being left open to keep staff away from passengers.

Clearly some lines will be busier than others, and so will some stations and at different times of the day.

Obviously none of us are able to do a comprehensive head count, but my understanding is that Northern guards may be doing as much as they can as they watch those boarding and leaving. It is suggested that their estimate of 5% may be on the high side, and bearing in mind they're running less than half the normal service on many lines that figure of 1% sounds quite credible to me. However I think numbers are growing.

I saw 4 passengers on a Northern Piccadilly - Sheffield train last night, of whom 2 got off at Dore and drove off in two of the three cars parked there. That was in a car park that takes 129 and usually has an overflow of more than 100 onto surrounding roads. One got off the following TPE but it was too dark to see through trees how many were left aboard.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

From looking at the trains coming past my garden, I would say the typical loading is below 1% at the moment compared to what I normally see.

 

[_toommm_]

I'm typically finding one per carriage on Transpennine, as opposed to the one hundred you'd find per packed Class 185 carriage. On the 802s and MK5a coaches, even less. The most I've got up to is 5 per carriage on a 185.

 

[Meerkat]

Given lockdown, many people have looked at what they do and changed their habits, of you live without a car you just don't make so many trips. As an example, you have a cheque to pay in then use your local Post Office which can pay in cheques to quite a few current accounts.

Yes you may need to plan ahead a bit more

You summed my viewpoint up right there, about the planning.
I don’t want a life restricted by timetables and hoping for a cab to turn up.
i barely use my car at the moment, but even if someone offer to pay me to give it up for a couple of months I wouldn’t. As long as I can afford a car I will have one. And I mean afford in absolute terms.

 

[Jamesrob637]

You summed my viewpoint up right there, about the planning.
I don’t want a life restricted by timetables and hoping for a cab to turn up.
i barely use my car at the moment, but even if someone offer to pay me to give it up for a couple of months I wouldn’t. As long as I can afford a car I will have one. And I mean afford in absolute terms.

Same but I have a 11-12 year old car which isn't on any sort of finance so it only costs me the basics. Plus I run it 20 miles per week as an extension of the supermarket run.

 

[Roast Veg]

Lots of furloughs in LU this week. There is a rumor amongst London Underground staff that if they didn't, their £1.5bn cash reserves would be depleted by about Thursday...

 

[The Ham]

Same but I have a 11-12 year old car which isn't on any sort of finance so it only costs me the basics. Plus I run it 20 miles per week as an extension of the supermarket run.

Whilst it currently cost you the basics, what happens in (say) 5 years time when it needs replacing? It also cost you something in the past, which would have had to have been accounted for at some point. It also has a value now, so that if you sold out you would get a lump sum for it.

For instance of you brought a car 5 years ago for £10,000 and part exchanged your previous car and then paid £200/month for 3 years then whist you've paid off your loan and the car is fully yours. However that doesn't tell you how much that car costs you per mile until you then sell it.

Also I would question how much those basics cost you on a per mile basis, given that you feel you need to do an extra 20 mile run each week. If you are doing 3,000 miles then if we assume £140 VED, £300 insurance and £160 MOT & servicing then without purchase costs or any other extra costs (such as parking, tyres, fines, insurance excess, larger fixes for things that go wrong, breakdown cover and the like - now not everyone will have those costs every year/if at all) then it's about 30p/ mile including fuel. However it could rapidly increase.

With the oil and gas industry being hit hard by the currant virus (read needing to cut staff, shut down oil weeks, not explore for more oil) then although fuel costs are low now, at things start to return to normal (fuel usage going up) then it's likely that fuel costs will stay to rise quickly. As although oil wells could be reopened, it's in the interest of those countries with large oil reserves for the cost of oil to go up a lot so that they can rebalance their finances. Also new oil wells are going to be slow in coming, especially if the exploration for them hasn't happened.

The other thing to bear in mind is the impact on the aviation industry. In that part of the cost of crude oil is paid by the production and use of aviation fuel. If they cut their use dramatically then a greater percentage of the cost of the crude oil will have to be met by the remaining uses. Unless your car can use aviation fuel instead of diesel then this is likely to impact you.

That's likely to focus mind, especially if petrol costs £1.50/litre or more.

 

[SoccerHQ]

Walked past Sutton Coldfield station the other day. Heard a train bound for Lichfield City coming in so was curious to see number of passengers at least on the train after Sutton.

It was 6 carriage make up. Counted 6 (although not in each carriage) plus a driver and guard of course. Couldn't see how many got off as was on the Brum bound platform.

This was at 5.20pm on a weekday.

 

[MDB1images]

Walked past Sutton Coldfield station the other day. Heard a train bound for Lichfield City coming in so was curious to see number of passengers at least on the train after Sutton.

It was 6 carriage make up. Counted 6 (although not in each carriage) plus a driver and guard of course. Couldn't see how many got off as was on the Brum bound platform.

This was at 5.20pm on a weekday.

5 or 6 is about the norm for all the services I've seen in the last few weeks at work.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Whilst it currently cost you the basics, what happens in (say) 5 years time when it needs replacing? It also cost you something in the past, which would have had to have been accounted for at some point. It also has a value now, so that if you sold out you would get a lump sum for it.

For instance of you brought a car 5 years ago for £10,000 and part exchanged your previous car and then paid £200/month for 3 years then whist you've paid off your loan and the car is fully yours. However that doesn't tell you how much that car costs you per mile until you then sell it.

Also I would question how much those basics cost you on a per mile basis, given that you feel you need to do an extra 20 mile run each week. If you are doing 3,000 miles then if we assume £140 VED, £300 insurance and £160 MOT & servicing then without purchase costs or any other extra costs (such as parking, tyres, fines, insurance excess, larger fixes for things that go wrong, breakdown cover and the like - now not everyone will have those costs every year/if at all) then it's about 30p/ mile including fuel. However it could rapidly increase.

With the oil and gas industry being hit hard by the currant virus (read needing to cut staff, shut down oil weeks, not explore for more oil) then although fuel costs are low now, at things start to return to normal (fuel usage going up) then it's likely that fuel costs will stay to rise quickly. As although oil wells could be reopened, it's in the interest of those countries with large oil reserves for the cost of oil to go up a lot so that they can rebalance their finances. Also new oil wells are going to be slow in coming, especially if the exploration for them hasn't happened.

The other thing to bear in mind is the impact on the aviation industry. In that part of the cost of crude oil is paid by the production and use of aviation fuel. If they cut their use dramatically then a greater percentage of the cost of the crude oil will have to be met by the remaining uses. Unless your car can use aviation fuel instead of diesel then this is likely to impact you.

That's likely to focus mind, especially if petrol costs £1.50/litre or more.

I can't imagine my car using kerosene. As for the VED/insurance/MOT figures, you're pretty spot on!

 

[bramling]

In no case is a parking permit an even vaguely substantial sum of money compared with the full cost of owning and running a car. I get that it might upset people having to pay it, but it is noise-level. Cars are expensive to run, even bangers.

Slight correction, cars are expensive to run if properly maintained. Some people don't bother with that aspect of things, just doing the bare minimum to get through an MOT. No doubt some don't even bother with that.

 

[westv]

Slight correction, cars are expensive to run if properly maintained. Some people don't bother with that aspect of things, just doing the bare minimum to get through an MOT. No doubt some don't even bother with that.

Doesn't that depend on the age of the car? A lot of modern cars just need an annual service.