SWR mainline stock replacement

[pompeyfan]

As the title goes, what and when will replace SWR mainline rolling stock? In any future franchise will the desiros go at the same time as the 30 year old 158/159s? Will the 442s and diesels be replaced with bi-modes? Meaning there’s a larger pool of go anywhere units? Will they have walk through availability (End gangways) between units?

 

[Energy]

Will they have walk through availability (End gangways) between units?

Probably

In any future franchise will the desiros go at the same time as the 30 year old 158/159s

The desiros are young and reliable, they aren't close to retirement.

Will the 442s and diesels be replaced with bi-modes? Meaning there’s a larger pool of go anywhere units?

Both are coming to retirement, a fleet of 23m 5 car bimode units would make sense to replace both.

 

[JonathanH]

As the title goes, what and when will replace SWR mainline rolling stock? In any future franchise will the desiros go at the same time as the 30 year old 158/159s? Will the 442s and diesels be replaced with bi-modes? Meaning there’s a larger pool of go anywhere units? Will they have walk through availability (End gangways) between units?

Desiro replacement is too far away to be on anyone's radar at the moment. The obvious replacement for the 442s has always been the 350/2 fleet refitted as appropriate.

 

[JonathanH]

Both are coming to retirement, a fleet of 23m 5 car bimode units would make sense to replace both.

Maybe but I think you would buy a fleet of straight electrics and bi-modes of the same family. The Portsmouth line does not need to be worked by bi-modes.

It shouldn't be taken for granted that the power supply into Waterloo can support electric traction replacing 159s without being enhanced, desirable as it may be to run bi-modes.

 

[pompeyfan]

Desiro replacement is too far away to be on anyone's radar at the moment. The obvious replacement for the 442s has always been the 350/2 fleet refitted as appropriate.

Completely agree that 350/2s would have made better sense providing they were in a 2+2 configuration with at least 4 tables per carriage, if not more.

Maybe but I think you would buy a fleet of straight electrics and bi-modes of the same family. The Portsmouth line does not need to be worked by bi-modes.

It shouldn't be taken for granted that the power supply into Waterloo can support electric traction replacing 159s without being enhanced, desirable as it may be to run bi-modes.

That is a very valid point actually that I had forgotten, I’d assume that’s a big project, seeing as they’re only just making excess capacity from the introduction of Desiro stock.

people say the desiros aren’t at retirement age, but that’s exactly what’s happening to the 350/2s. They currently have no home.

 

[Domh245]

people say the desiros aren’t at retirement age, but that’s exactly what’s happening to the 350/2s. They currently have no home.

There's a difference between being retired because of high lease costs (and the other factors behind their being replaced with 730s*), and being retired because they've reached the end of their useful life! The SWR desiros are unlikely to be withdrawn in the way that the 350/2s have - there's just too many of them for Angel to not be competitive with them price wise!


*Different ROSCO, enabling a small amount of fleet growth that would have been impractical if just ordering a couple of new trains,

 

[Energy]

There's a difference between being retired because of high lease costs (and the other factors behind their being replaced with 730s*), and being retired because they've reached the end of their useful life! The SWR desiros are unlikely to be withdrawn in the way that the 350/2s have - there's just too many of them for Angel to not be competitive with them price wise!


*Different ROSCO, enabling a small amount of fleet growth that would have been impractical if just ordering a couple of new trains,

To elaborate on the * in the quote above, Siemens no longer make the Desiro UK which the 185s, 350s, 444s, 450s are based of so WMT couldn't just order a few more 350s otherwise they probably would have and negotiated a lower price with Porterbrook, they kept the 172s which are also Porterbrook and ordered at the same time. So WMT would have to get a different train anyway as they couldn't get more desiros there wasn't much point in trying to negotiate a lower price for 350s with Porterbrook so they let them, and the 323s and 170s all owned by Porterbrook go for new cheaper rolling stock which they would have a larger fleet of rather than a couple more small microfleets.

 

[swt_passenger]

I’ve never thought it possible that replacement of the 158/9 (reasonably to be expected in the next franchise) would trigger an early replacement of 444/450, a fleet that’s about 6 or 7 times the size in terms of vehicle numbers, and has an expected remaining life of approx 20 years.

Those two matters must surely be considered completely unrelated.

However if the same question was rephrased as only about 442s, then yes.

 

[Bigfoot]

I see your point and I did think about that. It comes back to money in some respects. Replacing the 455/456s with 5/10 coach emus made sense but they probably couldn't then justify new emus from Portsmouth fasts so 442s were the obvious solution - retractioned to give extended service.

Exactly this.

Add in on top the 450/444 fleet is approaching 20 years old, coupled with the length of the rest of this franchise plus any direct award (if they exist ), the diesel fleet will also be at deaths door.

Then take the time to manufacture, deliver and bring into service a new fleet of trains there will be a large order placed at the start of the next "franchise" whoever wins as all long distance stock will be life expired on a modern railway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Add in on top the 450/444 fleet is approaching 20 years old, coupled with the length of the rest of this franchise plus any direct award (if they exist ), the diesel fleet will also be at deaths door.

20 years is mid-life for an EMU, no need to be looking at Desiro replacement yet.

I would agree over the ex-BR DMUs, though.

 

[Energy]

I’ve never thought it possible that replacement of the 158/9 (reasonably to be expected in the next franchise) would trigger an early replacement of 444/450, a fleet that’s about 6 or 7 times the size in terms of vehicle numbers, and has an expected remaining life of approx 20 years.

Those two matters must surely be considered completely unrelated.

However if the same question was rephrased as only about 442s, then yes.

They are also quite different fleets, especially the 450s compared to 158/9s, as one is a large fleet of EMUs which have lots of life left and are still suitable of work while the other is an older smaller fleet of DMUs which are coming up to retirement anyway and use some electrified track. Meanwhile the 442s shouldn't have been brought back into service IMO.

 

[Energy]

20 years is mid-life for an EMU, no need to be looking at Desiro replacement yet.

I would agree over the ex-BR DMUs, though.

I expect the Desiros to last longer than other EMUs, they are very well built and very reliable, look at some of BRs EMUs on the overhand... (to be fair things have come on since they were built)

 

[Bigfoot]

20 years is mid-life for an EMU, no need to be looking at Desiro replacement yet.

I would agree over the ex-BR DMUs, though.

Try re-reading the post. I never at any point said to replace at 20 years. Of course 20 years is a silly age to replace.

But 30 plus, which is how old they will be when they are replaced (mid next franchise or whatever they are then). One type of long distant fleet will be more useful.

Also I never said scrap. I said replaced. There is a huge difference.

 

[hexagon789]

As the title goes, what and when will replace SWR mainline rolling stock? In any future franchise will the desiros go at the same time as the 30 year old 158/159s? Will the 442s and diesels be replaced with bi-modes? Meaning there’s a larger pool of go anywhere units? Will they have walk through availability (End gangways) between units?

I would say either cascaded 350s or new-build Desiros replacing the 442s and bi-modes would seem likely to replace the 158/159 fleet. Does Siemens offer a bi-mode design?

 

[Energy]

I would say either cascaded 350s or new-build Desiros replacing the 442s and bi-modes would seem likely to replace the 158/159 fleet. Does Siemens offer a bi-mode design?

They did a diesel desiro (185s) and submitted a bid (although with Bombardier) for the Intercity Express Program so probably.

 

[hexagon789]

They did a diesel desiro (185s) and submitted a bid (although with Bombardier) for the Intercity Express Program so probably.

Something like a 185 with third-rail capability and less powerful diesel engines? Or perhaps just two engines.

 

[pompeyfan]

They did a diesel desiro (185s) and submitted a bid (although with Bombardier) for the Intercity Express Program so probably.

throw enough money at anyone to make it worthwhile and they’ll probably do it.

 

[Energy]

Try re-reading the post. I never at any point said to replace at 20 years. Of course 20 years is a silly age to replace.

But 30 plus, which is how old they will be when they are replaced (mid next franchise or whatever they are then). One type of long distant fleet will be more useful.

Also I never said scrap. I said replaced. There is a huge difference.

Next franchise? They still have 1 or 2 current length franchises ahead before they will be at scrapping age!

And what is the point in replacing them without scrapping them? They don't seem to have a particularly expensive lease and where else would they be used which wouldn't get new stock? Pre WMT I would have considered moving the metro style 450s across to what is now LNWR to boost capacity and let them be replaced by the new metro stock on order but now WMT is getting aventras I'm not sure where else.

 

[Domh245]

Also I never said scrap. I said replaced. There is a huge difference.

There isn't a practical difference though. There aren't going to be many places that'll want over 100 30 year old 3rd rail suburban EMUs or the 444s.

 

[cjmillsnun]

There isn't a practical difference though. There aren't going to be many places that'll want over 100 30 year old 3rd rail suburban EMUs or the 444s.

Agreed. Unless we see a lot more electrification and angel see the value in converting to dual voltage then the 450s and 444s will live out their days where they are I’d hope they’d manage 35-40 years before replacement.

 

[The Ham]

There isn't a practical difference though. There aren't going to be many places that'll want over 100 30 year old 3rd rail suburban EMUs or the 444s.

Given that the 450's are able to be converted to use OHLE then it's entirely possible for Northern to use them as a replacement for their current EMU's.

(Runs and hides after suggesting that cast offs from the South should be used in the North!)

More seriously though they could be useful for routes which have a mix of 3rd rail/OHLE.

The 444's could be useful for the likes of XC on their Southampton to Manchester services with some extra wires. Likewise, GWR could find the 450's useful for Reading/Gatwick services with some wires.

 

[Energy]

Agreed. Unless we see a lot more electrification and angel see the value in converting to dual voltage then the 450s and 444s will live out their days where they are I’d hope they’d manage 35-40 years before replacement.

Why wouldn't they? The desiro units are reliable and well suited to their routes.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Why wouldn't they? The desiro units are reliable and well suited to their routes.

Others want to write them off midway through the next franchise.

 

[Energy]

Others want to write them off midway through the next franchise.

Well they probably aren't the people who actually bid for franchises!

 

[samuelmorris]

Others want to write them off midway through the next franchise.

Maddening, they could easily last until 2050. If they were replaced, it'd likely be by Aventras with ironing board seats...

At this stage, with the time and money invested I'm not really sure if I even agree with those calling for the 442 project to be done away with. I suppose it really depends if it's ever going to be achievable for them to operate somewhat reliably.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Maddening, they could easily last until 2050. If they were replaced, it'd likely be by Aventras with ironing board seats...

At this stage, with the time and money invested I'm not really sure if I even agree with those calling for the 442 project to be done away with. I suppose it really depends if it's ever going to be achievable for them to operate somewhat reliably.

We will only know when they re-enter service after the traction conversion.

 

[The Ham]

Agreed. Unless we see a lot more electrification and angel see the value in converting to dual voltage then the 450s and 444s will live out their days where they are I’d hope they’d manage 35-40 years before replacement.

There's an argument that in 5-10 years time SWR could ditch the 442's, 444's and 158/159's to then create a new bimodal train for all their long distance services. With then the 450's replaced 10-15 years after that.

One other thing to consider is that with Crossrail 2 allowing more services to run out of Waterloo to places beyond Woking then there's likely to require extra units. If that's the case then the replacement of the 444's (rather than keeping them as a micro fleet for 10-15 years) could make sense.

Such a "replacement" could mean more 444's being used instead of 450's on some of the middle distance services which would be able to use either unit type.

 

[Domh245]

Siemens currently offer the Desiro Verve as a battery hybrid unit, but there is no off the shelf diesel bi-mode offering. Like Pompeyfan says though, offer them enough money...

 

[cjmillsnun]

There's an argument that in 5-10 years time SWR could ditch the 442's, 444's and 158/159's to then create a new bimodal train for all their long distance services. With then the 450's replaced 10-15 years after that.

One other thing to consider is that with Crossrail 2 allowing more services to run out of Waterloo to places beyond Woking then there's likely to require extra units. If that's the case then the replacement of the 444's (rather than keeping them as a micro fleet for 10-15 years) could make sense.

Such a "replacement" could mean more 444's being used instead of 450's on some of the middle distance services which would be able to use either unit type.

444s are hardly a microfleet when with the 450s. There is a huge amount of commonality.

I can see doing away with the 442s but perhaps an add on order of Aventras would be sensible or if some 350s become available a conversion to 450s would be the way to go.

As for Crossrail 2. We haven’t even got Crossrail operational yet and aren’t likely to anytime soon. I suspect crossrail 2 be put on ice for at least 10 years. TfL is flat broke.

As for bimodes. Yes for the WoEML but no for SWML and the direct. Carrying around an unnecessary diesel engine is bad economics as it uses more power and adds more mass to each train.

 

[Energy]

or if some 350s become available a conversion to 450s would be the way to go.

350/2s!

TfL is flat broke.

Yep, they have already had to leaseback the 345s to fund NTfL.