Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[35B]

so which view would you like them to say then? Other than “my mate said”? It’s pretty damning that the media can make up crowd numbers without research but because a fellow poster had a friend go to one, but let’s not believe them?

I rather trust friends over media anyday, this has all became some sort of reality show the media is playing out - think of this as Big Brother on a wider scale, yes probably hard to believe but it’s becoming reality.

Isn’t it strange let’s go by one example people mentioned BGT had gone Black Mirror on us (I’ve never watched either shows but yet what was fantasy in one is well came true).

There was also an Anime called The Big O, which I have on DVD but there has been a few times in that programme that make you question things, there was one line I remember and it was close to the bone - we are all actors and the world is a stage - you may read that line and laugh or say it’s just a TV show, indeed it can be stated as pure fiction but yet reading between the lines I differ.

What was fiction is becoming more reality and in time minds are waking up, I have and I’ll say it again this is the great awakening right in front of us (I am no longer afraid but I believe in karma is coming for those in power and that downfall will come with a bang)

I'm not saying what he should have said, but that what his mate said may not be a reliable estimate - for the reasons given. Those times I've been in very large crowds, I wouldn't have a clue about numbers - and anyone in them saying anything more than "there were lots there" without a reasonable external count source is either a fool or a liar.

As for comparing to the controlled reality of tv programmes, I simply disagree. I agree with Shakespeare that we are all actors and the world is a stage (yes, it goes back way before anime was dreamed of), but that doesn't mean the world is a controlled reality, or that a "great awakening" is coming. The world is way more complicated than that, and myths of that sort blind reality.

 

[kez19]

I'm not saying what he should have said, but that what his mate said may not be a reliable estimate - for the reasons given. Those times I've been in very large crowds, I wouldn't have a clue about numbers - and anyone in them saying anything more than "there were lots there" without a reasonable external count source is either a fool or a liar.

As for comparing to the controlled reality of tv programmes, I simply disagree. I agree with Shakespeare that we are all actors and the world is a stage (yes, it goes back way before anime was dreamed of), but that doesn't mean the world is a controlled reality, or that a "great awakening" is coming. The world is way more complicated than that, and myths of that sort blind reality.

but that is what you said, so if his friend is more reliable than the media but yes sure let’s dismiss his evidence, so again let’s question someone who is more reliable than the media (who we are meant to trust?), I go with friend still, media are just part of it or what’s that phrase shills to it

do you not think that some tv programmes hold some sort of truth? Seems to me people have a go at The Simpsons, yet there was somethings on that have became reality ie Skype/WhatsApp the Apple Watch etc.

I disagree in terms of the reality and awakening, for me awakening is that something in you has triggered and makes you realise that things aren’t right or what they seem and for me that’s what’s triggered for me.

On terms of reality, well isn’t it strange that since media here in particular have none of these reality shows to run with what else can they do? Oh that’s it, use the news to scare the wits out of people with propaganda (funny how the governments are paying the broadcasters for their messaging, must be once funding is pulled they’ll go down with it), as I said before and will say again rather than listen read what we are told by our so called leaders scientists and media, look at your own self and look at things differently, you will realise it’s not all as it seems

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder if this thread has been a heaven-sent gift for those who propagate conspiracy theories?

 

[quantinghome]

I wonder if this thread has been a heaven-sent gift for those who propagate conspiracy theories?

That's what they want you to think...

 

[317 forever]

Try being a barista who is worried about paying rent and bills! If people stopped going to these cafes and coffee shops then those staff would be unemployed have you thought about that?

This may turn out to be a red herring. People forced back into the office against their will would probably avoid coffee shops as much as possible anyway, just making their own at work and taking their own lunch in with them if there is no canteen there.

 

[Bantamzen]

I wonder if this thread has been a heaven-sent gift for those who propagate conspiracy theories?

That's what they want you to think...

Ok I'll bite. Who are "they" and what conspiracies do "they" want to propagate?

 

[35B]

but that is what you said, so if his friend is more reliable than the media but yes sure let’s dismiss his evidence, so again let’s question someone who is more reliable than the media (who we are meant to trust?), I go with friend still, media are just part of it or what’s that phrase shills to it

do you not think that some tv programmes hold some sort of truth? Seems to me people have a go at The Simpsons, yet there was somethings on that have became reality ie Skype/WhatsApp the Apple Watch etc.

I disagree in terms of the reality and awakening, for me awakening is that something in you has triggered and makes you realise that things aren’t right or what they seem and for me that’s what’s triggered for me.

On terms of reality, well isn’t it strange that since media here in particular have none of these reality shows to run with what else can they do? Oh that’s it, use the news to scare the wits out of people with propaganda (funny how the governments are paying the broadcasters for their messaging, must be once funding is pulled they’ll go down with it), as I said before and will say again rather than listen read what we are told by our so called leaders scientists and media, look at your own self and look at things differently, you will realise it’s not all as it seems

No reality shows? I must imagine the Gardeners' World, Sewing Bee, and other programmes that get watched in this household.

TV can have predictive power - but you could as easily use Star Trek for folding communicators/mobile phones. That's about the power of imagination, not some kind of power of the media to control.

And if you are serious about awakening etc., then the first thing to do is to accept the ability of ideas to challenge what you want to believe. Which is why I give the example of trusting a friend to say how many people are on a march is deficient. For example, when the Countryside March took place, the back of the march had barely started when the front reached it's destination. If you know London, you'll know just how big a space that involves.

Ok I'll bite. Who are "they" and what conspiracies do "they" want to propagate?

I wish I knew, but there are some posts that make me wonder who the conspiracists want to believe "they" are.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Ok I'll bite. Who are "they" and what conspiracies do "they" want to propagate?

Read through the thread and find some likely candidates.

 

[Purple Orange]

Excess deaths aren't typically measured over 16 months so it's frustrating to see the ONS do such a thing. It'd be interesting to see the excess death figures for 2021, given the low number of all-cause deaths over the past few months.

Actually it is relevant to do so. Excess deaths analysis needs to relate to the period that the pandemic has taken place in order to see the impact that the pandemic has had during the time it has been with us. If it was just 6 months, there would be little point in measuring over 12 months.

If after the pandemic is long gone, and we look at 2020 in isolation and then 2021 in isolation, we would be including 3 months of data in 2020 that has no relevance because the pandemic had not started yet. Likewise, if from tomorrow we had zero deaths relating to covid forevermore, adding in the 2nd half of 2021 would be diluting the impact the pandemic has had on us.

If it all ended tomorrow, we would say that in England & Wales 100,000 excess deaths took place. Of the total of 765,000 deaths, 140,000 related to Covid, therefore during that period 3 in 4 people who died with Covid had died earlier than they otherwise would have, had Covid not been a factor.

 

[kez19]

No reality shows? I must imagine the Gardeners' World, Sewing Bee, and other programmes that get watched in this household.

TV can have predictive power - but you could as easily use Star Trek for folding communicators/mobile phones. That's about the power of imagination, not some kind of power of the media to control.

And if you are serious about awakening etc., then the first thing to do is to accept the ability of ideas to challenge what you want to believe. Which is why I give the example of trusting a friend to say how many people are on a march is deficient. For example, when the Countryside March took place, the back of the march had barely started when the front reached it's destination. If you know London, you'll know just how big a space that involves.


I wish I knew, but there are some posts that make me wonder who the conspiracists want to believe "they" are.

But yet tv shows are shown by whom exactly? Media? BBC ITV Sky etc

I’ve never been to London furthest I been to is York but I can tell a difference in the crowds that marched to what we get told but still.

As for awakening, it’s something I have learnt myself without intervention but let people be

Read through the thread and find some likely candidates.

Is this aimed at me? As for a fact I don’t follow any, but I have an open mind to everything that’s going on but I’m not surprised that even if there is some theories becoming true but yet I don’t see anyone going back to apologise it’s more swept under.

Why should I trust a politician?
Why should I trust media?
Why should I trust scientists ala Sage/indieSage and the alike?
Is any of them accountable? If not then why not?



provide me with these answers then I’ll jump but for now I dont

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Whilst I appreciate this thread has tended to concentrate on England, have Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland issued any future changes to their existing decrees?

 

[kez19]

Whilst I appreciate this thread has tended to concentrate on England, have Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland issued any future changes to their existing decrees?

no Sturgeon is basically following Boris same date July 19

 

[MikeWM]

Just got an email from the Seattle Mariners baseball team - in Washington state, one of the states that has been slowest to open up and strictest about restrictions all along, and indeed the last of the USA-based major league baseball teams to return to full capacity stadiums.

From July 2nd - 100% capacity in the stadium (~48,000), no proof of vaccination or negative test required, masks not required for vaccinated ('recommended' for those who are not, but clearly that's not going to be enforced in any way).

So that's all 29 USA-based baseball teams, from a wide variety of states that have had a wide variety of restrictions - from none at all through to siginificantly worse than us - all now with 100% capacity stadiums. (Only the one Canada-based team is still having issues, because they're not allowed to play at home at all yet).

Why are we lagging behind so badly, given we're well ahead on vaccinations (probably further at this point than any state in the USA is likely to manage at all)?

 

[NorthKent1989]

Yes I am sure. I agree that it was a large crowd, but if I were in a large crowd, I wouldn't presume to assess the size of the crowd - and whether it was 1,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000.

As for polls, I'm sure some are designed to produce results. But I observed the reactions to the pollsters errors in both the 2015 election and the Brexit referendum, and their sensitivity to where their models have weaknesses. One of those weaknesses has to do with how they adjust for the representativeness of the samples, and on Brexit they called a close vote wrong but within the margin of error on their numbers. Election polls - here and in the US - are difficult because of the way the country is divided up into constituencies.

They aren't perfect, but if you're going to substitute your view for what they say, you need to come up with something better than "my mate said".

I mean…. Several friends were literally at the protest Filming it live sharing it on social media, so I’m bound to trust them more than the media who laughably lied about the amount of people there, so I’m afraid in this case “my mate said” is true whether it fits into your view or not you can’t pick and choose what’s true and what isn’t

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Just got an email from the Seattle Mariners baseball team - in Washington state, one of the states that has been slowest to open up and strictest about restrictions all along, and indeed the last of the USA-based major league baseball teams to return to full capacity stadiums.

From July 2nd - 100% capacity in the stadium (~48,000), no proof of vaccination or negative test required, masks not required for vaccinated ('recommended' for those who are not, but clearly that's not going to be enforced in any way).

So that's all 29 USA-based baseball teams, from a wide variety of states that have had a wide variety of restrictions - from none at all through to siginificantly worse than us - all now with 100% capacity stadiums. (Only the one Canada-based team is still having issues, because they're not allowed to play at home at all yet).

Why are we lagging behind so badly, given we're well ahead on vaccinations (probably further at this point than any state in the USA is likely to manage at all)?

Talking of the USA, can someone confirm when The Orange One ran the show, did he really make a suggestion that a disinfectant could be taken by some method to kill the Covid-19 virus....or was this a scurrilious rumour put around by the USA media?

 

[jumble]

With what you said in mind, although I do live just exterior to the borders of what I term "the TfGM empire", I telephoned a senior manager at the TfGM main office in Greater Manchester whom I have known for many years and asked him has the TfGM policy changed with regards to the wearing of masks on buses and trams, the taping off of seats by bus operators to reduce capacity, the reduction of available seats at bus stations and TfGM announcements about such matters. He said that no change had been made and TfGM appear to look to the July 19 date as the date when considerations of change could be made. He made mention of the fact that Stagecoach Manchester have large sized posters in the lower saloon of the double-deck buses exhorting people to wear masks that over both nose and mouth and ending with the comment that spot checks are currently carried out, with the possibility of a £200 fine for non-compliance.

TfGM are very much Labour Party affiliated and the current mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, is similarly Labour Party affiliated with some looking to him as a future leader of that political party.

My suspicion is the only people who are likely to receive £200 fine are those who tell the spot checker to get lost rather than claiming they are exempt and then being quiet

TFL have sent me an email today that says
Between 4 July 2020 and 7 June 2021:
• 193,766 people were stopped by TfL enforcement officers, to put masks on before boarding
• 12,479 people were prevented from boarding and 2,843 were ejected from the service

ie one had a 6.4 % chance of being told one cannot board and a 1.5 % chance of being Sent packing
Interesting they make no mention of how many fines have been issued

 

[NorthKent1989]

I'm not saying what he should have said, but that what his mate said may not be a reliable estimate - for the reasons given. Those times I've been in very large crowds, I wouldn't have a clue about numbers - and anyone in them saying anything more than "there were lots there" without a reasonable external count source is either a fool or a liar.

As for comparing to the controlled reality of tv programmes, I simply disagree. I agree with Shakespeare that we are all actors and the world is a stage (yes, it goes back way before anime was dreamed of), but that doesn't mean the world is a controlled reality, or that a "great awakening" is coming. The world is way more complicated than that, and myths of that sort blind reality.

When the full length of a busy West End street is rammed pack full of protesters on both sides of the road from Hyde Park through Oxford Street down to Tottenham Court Road and Westminster, I think it’s safe to say the the numbers are near , if not a million protesters

 

[317 forever]

I see headlines in Scotland. They are talking about restrictions until September. So I guess if Boris isn’t still misleading us. We have a lot to be happy about.

At least by September, all or nearly all 1st and 2nd jabs will have been administered. September could therefore be safer than July to fully unlock.

As the new case figures have exceeded ELEVEN thousand today, I think the July unlock is looking doubtful now.

Covid-19 in the UK: How many coronavirus cases are there in my area? - BBC News

Cases now on the rise again​

After a substantial decline since the start of the year, the average number of daily confirmed cases is now rising.
A further 11,007 confirmed cases in the UK were announced by the government on Thursday.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Why should I trust a politician?
Why should I trust media?
Why should I trust scientists ala Sage/indieSage and the alike?
Is any of them accountable? If not then why not?

Exactly this, I’ve completely lost faith in the politicians and the media, the goal posts keep shifting around, in America there has at least been opposition from the Republicans as they opened up their states early, now Democrat states have opened up, sadly with the lack of opposition from Labour who are even worse than The Tories in terms of restrictions, it feels that we live in a one party state at this point.

 

[317 forever]

49 were Tory backbenchers (mostly the usual suspects), and they were joined by five DUP MPs and six Labour rebels.

Thank you for posting this. The numbers are a coincidence, but I imagined it was 49 Tories plus the 11 LibDem MPs.

Should the DUP MPs really have been voting on English Covid restricitions?

 

[35B]

I mean…. Several friends were literally at the protest Filming it live sharing it on social media, so I’m bound to trust them more than the media who laughably lied about the amount of people there, so I’m afraid in this case “my mate said” is true whether it fits into your view or not you can’t pick and choose what’s true and what isn’t

And "one million"? Where's the credibility for that - remembering that I've already acknowledged that they legitimately claimed a large crowd?

Thank you for posting this. The numbers are a coincidence, but I imagined it was 49 Tories plus the 11 LibDem MPs.

Should the DUP MPs really have been voting on English Covid restricitions?

English Votes for English Laws was suspended a year ago - and may well be scrapped.

But yet tv shows are shown by whom exactly? Media? BBC ITV Sky etc

I’ve never been to London furthest I been to is York but I can tell a difference in the crowds that marched to what we get told but still.

As for awakening, it’s something I have learnt myself without intervention but let people be



Is this aimed at me? As for a fact I don’t follow any, but I have an open mind to everything that’s going on but I’m not surprised that even if there is some theories becoming true but yet I don’t see anyone going back to apologise it’s more swept under.

Why should I trust a politician?
Why should I trust media?
Why should I trust scientists ala Sage/indieSage and the alike?
Is any of them accountable? If not then why not?



provide me with these answers then I’ll jump but for now I dont

So how have you tried to hold them accountable? And those whom you trust - how do you hold them accountable?

 

[317 forever]

​

​

​

Well this had better turn out to be the case, Rees-Mogg. All restrictions GONE. And this "terminus day" had better be ON TIME on 19th July and not DELAYED!

Well this is a rail forum. And as we all know from experience, trains are often not on time but delayed.

 

[adc82140]

At least by September, all or nearly all 1st and 2nd jabs will have been administered. September could therefore be safer than July to fully unlock.

As the new case figures have exceeded ELEVEN thousand today, I think the July unlock is looking doubtful now.

Covid-19 in the UK: How many coronavirus cases are there in my area? - BBC News

What makes you say that? The NHS can cope as the vaccines are reducing hospital admissions to manageable levels (that coming from the head of NHS England, who I'm sure knows his stuff). The number of infections has not influenced government thinking for some months. The 4 week delay is to get more vaccines in arms. A broad church of scientists agrees that unlocking in July is the sweet spot, as there will be an exit wave, and it'd be madness to have this in the autumn when the NHS has other pressures to worry about.

Also, there were eleven thousand "reported" infections today. The figure by sample date (the more accurate one) is a couple of thousand less

 

[Darandio]

At least by September, all or nearly all 1st and 2nd jabs will have been administered. September could therefore be safer than July to fully unlock.

As the new case figures have exceeded ELEVEN thousand today, I think the July unlock is looking doubtful now.

Covid-19 in the UK: How many coronavirus cases are there in my area? - BBC News

What about hospitalisations and deaths? You know, the stuff that matters.

The whole point now was not to base decisions on cases, it's meaningless.

 

[317 forever]

What makes you say that? The NHS can cope as the vaccines are reducing hospital admissions to manageable levels (that coming from the head of NHS England, who I'm sure knows his stuff). The number of infections has not influenced government thinking for some months. The 4 week delay is to get more vaccines in arms. A broad church of scientists agrees that unlocking in July is the sweet spot, as there will be an exit wave, and it'd be madness to have this in the autumn when the NHS has other pressures to worry about.

Also, there were eleven thousand "reported" infections today. The figure by sample date (the more accurate one) is a couple of thousand less

Even taking 2000 off gives us 9000, well above the figures below 3000 from a few weeks ago.

Sure, hospitals can cope better due to the vaccine progress so far. This makes keeping the current freedoms a reasonable bet rather than increasing freedoms. I do understand people who wish for all freedoms to return in July though.

 

[philosopher]

When the full length of a busy West End street is rammed pack full of protesters on both sides of the road from Hyde Park through Oxford Street down to Tottenham Court Road and Westminster, I think it’s safe to say the the numbers are near , if not a million protesters

Wikipedia mentions the protests on the 29th May in London had hundreds of thousands so that does back up what you say. Of course Wikipedia may not be reliable. From the media however you would either not known they existed or would have thought they were just a small bunch of conspiracy theorists.

COVID-19 protests in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

May 2021​

Thousands of protestors gathered in Central London on 29 May to protest against the COVID-19 vaccination rollout and public health restrictions including lockdowns and vaccine passports.[50][51] Numerous demonstrations took place across the day in the city and were largely peaceful, including a march of hundreds of thousands of people which started at Parliament Square and reached as far west as Acton.[52][53] A smaller group entered Westfield Shopping Centre in Shepherd's Bush in the early evening, clashing with police and forcing the centre to close early.[54][55]

Whatever your view of the measures, a protest of hundreds of thousands is pretty significant and so should be pretty news worthy. Assuming there were that many protestors, the fact such a protest was hardly reported does seem somewhat questionable.

 

[quantinghome]

Ok I'll bite. Who are "they" and what conspiracies do "they" want to propagate?

It was a joke.

 

[Domh245]

Excess deaths aren't typically measured over 16 months so it's frustrating to see the ONS do such a thing. It'd be interesting to see the excess death figures for 2021, given the low number of all-cause deaths over the past few months.

@Purple Orange has explained the bit about why comparison since 'start of pandemic' is the relevant metric to use, but for 2021 Calendar year the excess death figure is currently 24,191 (England & Wales) but falling since March (and likely to continue falling due to harvesting effects). These graphs help contextualise the numbers a little

 

[Busaholic]

There have been marches in various cities, it’s more than “just a few people” the has been growing backlash against lockdown that the media isn’t truly reporting on, the likes of Andrew Lloyd Weber saying he’ll open up his performances and doesn’t care if he’ll be arrested hasn’t exactly received much backlash either, in fact he’s gotten support, the reason why most are mistaken in thinking there’s no backlash is because the BBC report that only 300 people were at the anti lockdown march when that number was actually well over a million

You sound like Donald Trump on the matter of the anti-lockdown march; can you point to a video giving an impression of the number of marchers or perhaps some public transport data? Cf Washington DC local authority on the matter of how many were present at the booby's inauguration.

 

[NorthOxonian]

At least by September, all or nearly all 1st and 2nd jabs will have been administered. September could therefore be safer than July to fully unlock.

As the new case figures have exceeded ELEVEN thousand today, I think the July unlock is looking doubtful now.

Covid-19 in the UK: How many coronavirus cases are there in my area? - BBC News

Just looking at raw numbers like that is pretty misleading when there's exponential growth (or anything like it). The trend in cases is actually going in the right direction - with the estimated growth rate today slightly slower than it was yesterday. If said trend continues, we will very likely hit the peak of cases within a fortnight, and so the figures would actually be falling by the 19th (even hospitalisations, despite the lag there).

As to your claim that, do you really think they would unlock in September? Or do you not think the calls demanding for restrictions over winter (because the NHS is always busy then) would be irresistible? I wanted us to open up next Monday not because it was the safest thing to do, and not even because it made most sense based on the way the virus behaves - but purely because every delay increases the risk this just continues on and on for many months to come.