Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[kristiang85]

It's been interesting to see the support/advocacy for lockdown one but the disdain/hatred for subsequent lockdowns. I think even anti-locktivists supported lockdown one - maybe that's the reason why they became who they are. I fall in that category.

I count myself in this too. To summarise my feelings: In April 2020, we had a virus we didn't know much about, it could potentially be a more efficient form of SARS (which was scary for those who got it), and we were faced with all these videos of people dying in the streets in China (which we now know were most likely fake). On the face of it, it was an unprecedented situation and given the rest of the West was locking down, it seemed sensible.

But since then we've understood the virus more, you don't drop dead in the street from it, we understand more how it spreads and how to treat it, and most importantly we have a vaccine. And through time it's clear that the collatoral effects of lockdown outweigh their benefits in fighting COVID 19. So I've not supported anything since last spring, as lockdowns should be a one-in-a-lifetime emergency meaure, extremely limited in time, and certainly not something the population should be conditioned to expect.

 

[philosopher]

It's been interesting to see the support/advocacy for lockdown one but the disdain/hatred for subsequent lockdowns. I think even anti-locktivists supported lockdown one - maybe that's the reason why they became who they are. I fall in that category.

Interestingly I know one person who has shifted from an anti lockdown position last spring to a pro lockdown position from the autumn onwards.

At the time I did support the first lockdown, however in hindsight I am not sure it was such a good idea. Perhaps they should have bought in more modest restrictions but done so earlier, like what Sweden did. Back in March, however I suspect Boris had little choice but to order a lockdown, give the fear most people had about Covid and the extent of the backlash against the original 'herd immunity' strategy.

 

[Bikeman78]

Another can of worms!

As I say when there's a change to conditions of travel there has to be a consultation period and the BTP aren't going to enforce.

The conditions of carriage don't appear to have changed since December 4th 2019.

I agree about the lack of enforcement. There hasn't been much throughout this. Most people have gone along with it but that will most likely change when they're not required anywhere else.

 

[henairs]

A lot of interesting comments on here which I enjoy reading. I've carried on using buses in our part of Somerset which is mostly rural and because of this have seldom seen overly busy services but are very grateful these services are running.
Regards trains I have only travelled on 3 occasions this year and although passengers about plenty of room to distance and enjoy ones journey.
I prefer buses overall as there is a better flow of air (with windows open) than modern trains which rely on air conditioning which can/may pass stale air around and denies passengers the choice of opening a window if desired.
We have Turbo's mostly on our local line to Weymouth (GWR) which are not very good regards ventilation
whilst the SWR turbo's on our other local line Exeter to Waterloo seem far superior regards this.
Which do other readers on here prefer, buses or trains regarding ventilation ?
Cheers,
Mike R

 

[notlob.divad]

Anyone who advocates for a two tier society needs to really take a good, long, hard look at themselves

Great Barrington Decleration anyone? Because that is exactly what was being proposed. Those members of society most vulnerable were to lock themselves away indefinitely. Meanwhile a higher tier of society was to return to living as if nothing was happening.

On this specific point, my wife walked away from being sent over the bonnet of a car because she was wearing a helmet. They’re valuable in all circumstances

That is lucky for her. At no point was I trying to say that helmets do not have value. My point was that there are sevetal scenarios where a mask against pollution would add more value than a helmet.
Maybe you do not have the level of segregated infrastructure where you live to envisage that situation.

 

[yorkie]

Great Barrington Decleration anyone? Because that is exactly what was being proposed. Those members of society most vulnerable were to lock themselves away indefinitely. Meanwhile a higher tier of society was to return to living as if nothing was happening.

That's a huge misrepresentation (but in like with what I expect of course!), and "indefinitely" would have ended once people were vaccinated.

 

[Richard Scott]

Great Barrington Decleration anyone? Because that is exactly what was being proposed. Those members of society most vulnerable were to lock themselves away indefinitely. Meanwhile a higher tier of society was to return to living as if nothing was happening.

So you're saying let's have everyone locked up as that's fairer? I'm not convinced that's what the deceleration was saying. Thought it was more about letting people get on with life if they wished to.

 

[david1212]

Grant Shapps was quoted on the TV news this morning saying that train companies will be free to make face coverings a condition of travel at “busy times”, whatever that’s meant to mean.

He needs a large shot of reality.
First how would “busy times” be definitively defined ?
Second how would it be enforced ?

Either they are mandatory full stop or voluntary with guidelines and recommendations. The former would stop a proportion of discretionary travellers ( and the railway farebox needs every last penny ). The latter ignores the differing views of those travelling and IMO would lead to issues not least on late evening trains when some will be far from sober.

Could there be masked coaches like quiet coaches ?

 

[island]

Could there be masked coaches like quiet coaches ?

This would be less objectionable than many of the other proposals I’m seeing.

 

[TPO]

Great Barrington Decleration anyone? Because that is exactly what was being proposed. Those members of society most vulnerable were to lock themselves away indefinitely. Meanwhile a higher tier of society was to return to living as if nothing was happening.


That is lucky for her. At no point was I trying to say that helmets do not have value. My point was that there are sevetal scenarios where a mask against pollution would add more value than a helmet.
Maybe you do not have the level of segregated infrastructure where you live to envisage that situation.

The thing about the vulnerable is a red herring, one I find increasingly annoying when the media trot it out.

Those who are still vulnerable to COVID will inevitably also be vulnerable to flu, measles, chickenpox, mumps, rhinoviruses, TB, other corona viruses and indeed all the other nasties (salmonella, tetanus, candida etc- just look at the things the firts AIDs patients died of) that circulate in the air/ground/gut/skin/general population and against which a non-compromised immune system will protect us.

I get it, being vulnerable like that is a bit s**t; but equally it's not reasonable to expect a vaccinated population to stay locked up and have an equally s**t time to protect a few people. Nor is eveyone wearing face coverings much point as they don't do a great lot either- they were primarily a placebo/psychological control as per the govt committee minutes when they were discussed (which is BTW why they are NOT, I repeat NOT classed as PPE; if they were PPE they'd have to protect properly and as per FFP3 masks the rules for Respiratory Protective Equipment would apply- face fit tested, must be clean shaven, correct donning, regular changes etc).

What is reasonable is for some reasonable adjustments to be made, e.g. employers to allow vulnerable people to work from home (as they are at risk of a whole range of nasties).

TPO

 

[bramling]

The thing about the vulnerable is a red herring, one I find increasingly annoying when the media trot it out.

Those who are still vulnerable to COVID will inevitably also be vulnerable to flu, measles, chickenpox, mumps, rhinoviruses, TB, other corona viruses and indeed all the other nasties (salmonella, tetanus, candida etc- just look at the things the firts AIDs patients died of) that circulate in the air/ground/gut/skin/general population and against which a non-compromised immune system will protect us.

I get it, being vulnerable like that is a bit s**t; but equally it's not reasonable to expect a vaccinated population to stay locked up and have an equally s**t time to protect a few people. Nor is eveyone wearing face coverings much point as they don't do a great lot either- they were primarily a placebo/psychological control as per the govt committee minutes when they were discussed (which is BTW why they are NOT, I repeat NOT classed as PPE; if they were PPE they'd have to protect properly and as per FFP3 masks the rules for Respiratory Protective Equipment would apply- face fit tested, must be clean shaven, correct donning, regular changes etc).

What is reasonable is for some reasonable adjustments to be made, e.g. employers to allow vulnerable people to work from home (as they are at risk of a whole range of nasties).

TPO

The other thing to add to this is that some of the people in the vulnerable category may well be at the point where they are sadly nearing the end of their life, perhaps with something like advanced cancer. It’s pretty nasty to expect such people to coop themselves up indefinitely, denying them the opportunity to enjoy what time they have left.

 

[Chris125]

Much as I think July 19th is the least worst option available, the Netherlands experience of a 'big bang' approach - especially for nightclubs when so few young people are fully vaccinated - is a tad unnerving.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906

BREAKING: Netherlands reports 10,345 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 803% from last week

That would be 40,000 here adjusted for population size.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/10/10345-netherlands-reports-new-coronavirus-cases-since-christmas

Public health agency RIVM reported the most new coronavirus infections in the Netherlands in a single day since last Christmas. Some 10,345 more people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which raised the seven day average by 41 percent to 4,504. These figures were reported by the RIVM at a time when the Covid-19 vaccination campaign has also shown signs of slowing down.

The coronavirus infections daily average was now 7.5 times higher than eleven days ago, when the figure hit a low point following the third wave of infections. That low mark was set on June 30, four days after the Cabinet released most coronavirus restrictions in the Netherlands, but then the months long trend of declining figures quickly reversed course.

 

[TPO]

The other thing to add to this is that some of the people in the vulnerable category may well be at the point where they are sadly nearing the end of their life, perhaps with something like advanced cancer. It’s pretty nasty to expect such people to coop themselves up indefinitely, denying them the opportunity to enjoy what time they have left.

And the point I am making is that if they don't coop themselves up, even if we didn't have COVID around they'd be equally likely to fall victim to something else.

The experience of the first AIDS patients is instructive- one of the things they typically suffered with was a SERIOUS outbreak of the yeast candida (thrush). A yeast they were already carrying on their skin, in their gut- as we all do. Streptococcus typically lives on the skin but can also cause deadly disease (scarlet fever in the old days).

If part or all of the immune system is compromised, there's a lot of "innocuous/harmless" microbes which are not innocuous or harmless.

TPO

 

[trebor79]

Much as I think July 19th is the least worst option available, the Netherlands experience of a 'big bang' approach - especially for nightclubs when so few young people are fully vaccinated - is a tad unnerving.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906

That would be 40,000 here adjusted for population size.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/10/10345-netherlands-reports-new-coronavirus-cases-since-christmas

We're already at that point. Plus higher previous attack rage so unlikely to see such an explosion of cases as Denmark. Plus, so few are ending up in hospital now.
It really is now or never. We have to do this, we have to get normal life back again.

 

[yorksrob]

Much as I think July 19th is the least worst option available, the Netherlands experience of a 'big bang' approach - especially for nightclubs when so few young people are fully vaccinated - is a tad unnerving.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906

That would be 40,000 here adjusted for population size.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/10/10345-netherlands-reports-new-coronavirus-cases-since-christmas

We have to remember as well though, that the youngsters will have already been mixing in pubs etc.

July 19th isn't going to be a "big bang" as such since so much has already reopened.

 

[317 forever]

Aside from LNER, are there any TOCs that don't allow or expect every seat to be taken? Recently I've been on full trains (75% or more of seats taken with people standing) on Merseyrail, TfW, Greater Anglia, Southern and TFL Rail.

On June 12th I rode TPE from Newcastle to Manchester Victoria. All the aisle seats were closed off, or rather, announced as booked from Newcastle to Liverpool Lime Street. Also, in May I rode Avanti, who likewise were only allowing window seats to be used.

 

[brad465]

Much as I think July 19th is the least worst option available, the Netherlands experience of a 'big bang' approach - especially for nightclubs when so few young people are fully vaccinated - is a tad unnerving.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906

That would be 40,000 here adjusted for population size.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/10/10345-netherlands-reports-new-coronavirus-cases-since-christmas

There is widespread acceptance that an exit wave is possible, which I imagine this is for the Netherlands. Spain has also been having one recently.



While most opinion polling on Covid stuff is iffy, one poll from Redfield & Wilton earlier today actually has (albeit only slightly), the largest share supporting the lifting of all Covid restrictions on the 19th July, at 41% for and 37% opposed:

I wouldn't be surprised if a larger share than that in reality think lifting on the 19th should happen, but it makes a change for a poll to have a larger share against restrictions when most of them seem to be widespread support for keeping/imposing them.

 

[big_rig]

Cases are going up in Europe because they have nearly all of theirs being the ‘delta’ variant now, instead of the plain old Kent variant. We are much ahead of Europe in this inevitable switch hence having higher numbers now. They also went up relative to us when they had the original one replaced in turn by the Kent one earlier this year. The posting of graphs showing case levels in the UK compared to Europe by smug zero coviders/political hacks will soon cease and the practice will be abandoned when ours level off and the EU averages are going up and up.

 

[NorthOxonian]

While most opinion polling on Covid stuff is iffy, one poll from Redfield & Wilton earlier today actually has (albeit only slightly), the largest share supporting the lifting of all Covid restrictions on the 19th July, at 41% for and 37% opposed.

I find the regional breakdown on that poll fascinating (but broadly matches up with my experience). London wants restrictions eased, whereas the Home Counties much less keen. The South West then also favours easing, as does the West Midlands, and Yorkshire. The East Midlands and North West are essentially evenly split (both opposing easing by tiny margins which won't be statistically significant). And on a personal level, it's certainly a poll which makes me proud to be from the North East, being by far the region most supportive of "Terminus Day" - but judging from the general atmosphere and conversations with other people up here, it chimes with experience.

Though I do whether Scotland and Wales were asked about the English reopenings or their own. Both had large majorities opposed to reopening, but I struggle to believe they think the devolved Parliaments are doing things too quickly.

 

[yorkie]

The thing about the vulnerable is a red herring, one I find increasingly annoying when the media trot it out.

Those who are still vulnerable to COVID will inevitably also be vulnerable to flu, measles, chickenpox, mumps, rhinoviruses, TB, other corona viruses and indeed all the other nasties (salmonella, tetanus, candida etc- just look at the things the firts AIDs patients died of) that circulate in the air/ground/gut/skin/general population and against which a non-compromised immune system will protect us...

I completely agree, but the doom-mongers try to claim this virus is completely different to all otrhers.

In reality, it's more about our immunity, than the virus itself.

You're quite right that if someone is unable to mount an immune response to viruses then they would have a lot more to worry about than just Sars-CoV-2.

Much as I think July 19th is the least worst option available, the Netherlands experience of a 'big bang' approach - especially for nightclubs when so few young people are fully vaccinated - is a tad unnerving....

That goes on about cases, but cases no longer really matters. Also their vaccination rate is lagging behind ours.

 

[bramling]

I find the regional breakdown on that poll fascinating (but broadly matches up with my experience). London wants restrictions eased, whereas the Home Counties much less keen. The South West then also favours easing, as does the West Midlands, and Yorkshire. The East Midlands and North West are essentially evenly split (both opposing easing by tiny margins which won't be statistically significant). And on a personal level, it's certainly a poll which makes me proud to be from the North East, being by far the region most supportive of "Terminus Day" - but judging from the general atmosphere and conversations with other people up here, it chimes with experience.

Though I do whether Scotland and Wales were asked about the English reopenings or their own. Both had large majorities opposed to reopening, but I struggle to believe they think the devolved Parliaments are doing things too quickly.

From my experiences in Tyne & Wear this week, not surprised the North East is anti - there's pretty much zero distancing here, and mask use is *very* hit & miss too. Certainly no dirty looks on the Metro for not wearing a mask.

The N-E has always had a reputation for doing things its own way, and this is no different!

We really need to stop this whole "appease the home counties" show, for that seems to be what this has become now. An accurate survey comparing support for restrictions compared with work from home would be interesting for sure.

 

[Domh245]

That goes on about cases, but cases no longer really matters. Also their vaccination rate is lagging behind ours.

Cases matter less, but still have some importance. It'll be interesting to see how cases and hospitalisations play out in the Netherlands over the next week though, their surge is (like ours) very much driven by younger people - if they fail to see any significant increases in hospital admissions despite the large case numbers it's further evidence in the "remove restrictions" camp

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Cases matter less, but still have some importance. It'll be interesting to see how cases and hospitalisations play out in the Netherlands over the next week though, their surge is (like ours) very much driven by younger people - if they fail to see any significant increases in hospital admissions despite the large case numbers it's further evidence in the "remove restrictions" camp

Netherlands have reimposed controls albeit on the margins but nevertheless reversed changes only made a few weeks earlier.

What shouldn't be underestimated currently is the amount of double vaccinated people that are still getting covid. So even though the effects are moderated, compared to being unvaccinated, it will see increasing numbers of people requiring to self isolate until 16th August but reckon that will be rolled back. This will begin to have an adverse effect across society be it lack of train crew, HGV driver or worse NHS staff and remember by the time they trip there worst case scenario and take action it will take weeks before any action has an impact.

So much as im not a mask fanatic wearing them at least moderates the spread of aerosols into an enclosed space if someone is asymptomatic. I get as the wearer they confer minimal protection unless they are PPF3 standard but slowing down transmission seems sensible course of action currently which has minimal impact on peoples ability to get on with normality. If things pan out better then by all means rescind the requirement.

 

[yorksrob]

Do we have any figures for the number of double vaccinated people not admitted to hospital but suffering a nasty bout of illness, and how this is distributed across age cohorts ?

I've not seen anything published and genuinely feel it would be useful to know. Would it affect my beliefs on releasing the lockdown on July 19th ? Probably not. I just feel we're at the stage where we have to get back to normal or we never will.

 

[brad465]

The Telegraph front page tomorrow is reporting on a claim by Javid that the Hospital waiting lists could top 13 million in months (nearly 20% of the population), which would more than double the current estimate of 5 million, which if true would be extremely alarming collateral damage. The text also says Boris Johnson is expected to confirm the July 19th easement, suggesting this announcement will happen, given the weekend before the June 21st postponement announcement was filled with reports stating the delay (therefore if Johnson announces a further delay on Monday he's completed an extremely screeching u-turn)

 

[londiscape]

Great Barrington Decleration anyone? Because that is exactly what was being proposed. Those members of society most vulnerable were to lock themselves away indefinitely. Meanwhile a higher tier of society was to return to living as if nothing was happening.

Yet another misrepresentation of the GBD - it was never about forcing anyone to lock themselves away, it was about redirecting health and financial resources to help those who were most vulnerable. If vulnerable people wanted to shield (that's the important word - wanted, not forced) the GBD advocated giving financial, health, social and any other aid to those people to help them to get through it as best as possible. While also stressing that the rest of us had a duty to keep the economy going so that public funds would remain available to continue said help.

The continuing MSM/social media libel against the GBD and its authors demeans us all - we would do better to listen to Profs. Gupta, Kuldorff and Bhattacharya instead of blindly believing the rubbish the likes of SAGE et al keep pumping out.

 

[yorksrob]

Have 20 percent of the population ever been on a hospital waiting list ?

 

[initiation]

a 'big bang' approach

I've seen comments like this and in the media that we shouldn't suddenly drop 'all' restrictions. We are not! This is step 4 in a very very long winded roadmap. It was now set out not far off half a year ago! At somepoint 'all' restrictions have to disappear unless you support them continuing indefinitely.

The Netherlands are experiencing exactly the same increase in positive tests as us because of the Delta variant. Hospitalisations and deaths are very low so it is largely irrelevant.

We should be celebrating that from next monday England will have potentially the freest society in Western Europe.

---

On masks - a small anecdote but i've seen on some social media accounts I follow that various ferry boat companies on the Isles of Scilly have already announced they will be keeping mandatory masks whatever is announced for the 19th. Lots of comments like it will help people feel safe etc... Utterly insane because nearly every boat is outdoor seating with a bracing sea breeze in your face! I was considering a holiday there in September but will cross that off the list now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Do we have any figures for the number of double vaccinated people not admitted to hospital but suffering a nasty bout of illness, and how this is distributed across age cohorts ?

I've not seen anything published and genuinely feel it would be useful to know. Would it affect my beliefs on releasing the lockdown on July 19th ? Probably not. I just feel we're at the stage where we have to get back to normal or we never will.

This from the Zoe App shows an uptrend in cases in partially vaccinated doesn't answer question on severity or hospitalisation rate between the two

 

[yorksrob]

This from the Zoe App shows an uptrend in cases in partially vaccinated doesn't answer question on severity or hospitalisation rate between the two

View attachment 99523

Indeed. I feel we need more information.