Stansted Airport Future and the Railways

[Class 170101]

Stansted is in trouble as an airport. Three reasons:

1) A lot of its traffic was to/from Eastern Europe, which was transient labour and settled immigrants returning to see family and friends (and vice versa). Obviously, that market is reducing post Brexit.

2) it was trying to make much of being ‘the only London airport with spare capacity’ (which rather ignored Luton and Southend), and trying to do deals with transatlantic and Middle East airlines at cut price rates. Post Covid that opportunity has gone.

3) Luton, specifically the £200m+ it has invested in the DART. Suddenly Luton will be half an hour from central London (St Pancras), well under an hour from most of zone 1, with little pfaff. This will change the equation for people with a choice between the two.

I’d be surprised if Stansted sees its 2019 passenger numbers again any time this decade.

With the propensity of Brits to travel I think the 28.1m 2019 passenger figures returning will depend upon post covid restrictions and whether or not governments of all countries and the airlines make travel as a similar an experience as pre-covid 2020.

Infrastructure will also play its part. Stansted and Luton both have capacity on their current runways unlike Heathrow and I can't see 3rd Runway being built anytime soon especially as there seems to be a reluctance to support / build Heathrow Western and Southern Access by the private sector and limited public finance and heavy public debts currently.

Now there's alternative services on the Cambridge to Stansted section I must say I agree there seems to be a good case for ditching XC on this section. This service does seem like a throwover from the time when this was the only service to Stansted from the north. Presumably there's space at Cambridge to accommodate the extra terminating services? Fitting in an extra tph to make Birmingham - Cambridge 2tph would seem to be starting to push things though.

I believe XC have been terminating at Cambridge for some of Covid 19 period.

XC have wanted to up the frequency by extending the Leicester terminator through to Cambridge for many years down but has always been refused pending the upgrade of Ely North Jcn. This can eventually operate along with the other service operating through to the airport as now & a win win for all.

Would extending the second train from Leicester to Peterborough be feasible?

Not as much room on Platforms 6 and 7 as you think.

Given the current timetable, curtailing the Birmingham-Stansted at Cambridge would save the grand total of 1 unit, with a 50+ minute turnaround time at Cambridge.

To extend the Birmingham-Leicester through to Cambridge requires 4 units, 3 if you're feeling brave and want to go for 20 minute turnarounds at Cambridge alongside the 8 minute turnaround at Birmingham for the current xx14 arrival from Leicester to form the xx22 departure to Anglia.

And good luck getting the extra paths through Ely North Jn, fitting around the existing freight paths, and the mitigating level crossings risks etc etc...

20 minutes at Cambridge isn't unreasonable I'd say but I must admit I can't believe that 8 minutes at New Street is ever acceptable. Pathing at Ely North is probably ok from Cambridge to Peterborough but the level crossings seems to be an issue that being said the 20:08/20:12 Norwich to Nottingham service was agreed.

Platform 5 and 6 are pretty lightly used. XC went in there when they temporarily stopped running to Stansted (save for a few early late marginal time services) during Covid.

In the world of de-carbonisation, sending a diesel service past its key traffic destination duplicating an electric service is questionable at best.

Perhaps but then the question has to be asked should 3 car 170s be upgraded to 4 car Class 755s or similar but in a way carbon emissions I don't think should see a service curtailed. Under that argument the service should stop at Ely and not serve Cambridge.

There certainly is a market for a 2tph Cambridge-Stansted service (which is what is really being served, but that is of course never as sexy as a long distance through train basically inherited from Regional Railways).

But having one of these originate from New Street and the other from Norwich just results in the service being uneven for Cambridge passengers. I'd argue that does not "work well".

(North of) Cambridge to Stansted is not the big flow relative to London.

 

[mrmartin]

I don't really agree that Stansted is in big trouble; I can't see Ryanair moving. I expect next summer (assuming no more major covid problems) to be extremely supply constrained (lots of airlines have cut back on fleets and won't be the capacity there was). The Eastern European thing is overplayed too (look at the most popular destinations in 2018 on Wikipedia - only Warsaw, Prague and Krakow on that list).

The real problem IMO is the cost of Stansted Express tickets. It's really expensive, to the point I almost always end up getting a cab there if I'm travelling with more than one person.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Not specifically Stansted, but I do think Glasgow Airport is in trouble, having suffered some big blows during the last few years:

1. Thomas Cook going bankrupt, which had quite a big base at Glasgow
2. Flybe going into demise, which again had a big base at Glasgow
3. Ryanair closing their base at Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh and cutting the majority of the destinations.
4. COVID
5. Virgin Atlantic pulling out of Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh.

I think a few airports will end up in a spot of bother over the next year or so, depending on how well passenger numbers go.

Stansted will be fine eventually. Southend is the one that’s in bother.

If passenger numbers to Stansted don’t recover, I can definitely see the Stansted Express remaining at 2tph.

 

[dk1]

If passenger numbers to Stansted don’t recover, I can definitely see the Stansted Express remaining at 2tph.

Back to how it was in the beginning albeit with more calling points. GA have no plans to increase frequency this side of May at the moment.

 

[Ianno87]

.

Perhaps but then the question has to be asked should 3 car 170s be upgraded to 4 car Class 755s or similar but in a way carbon emissions I don't think should see a service curtailed. Under that argument the service should stop at Ely and not serve Cambridge.

Except that Ely doesn't have the capacity to terminate the current XC service, and Cambridge is where the majority of passengers want to get to.

 

[chubs]

I dont think Stansted is in trouble at all. If anything the market that it serves will recover quicker than business and more premium travel. On a busy summer day (pre covid) it can be hell.

The XC service was always very busy with people travelling well beyond Ely from Stansted.

 

[Techniquest]

Except that Ely doesn't have the capacity to terminate the current XC service, and Cambridge is where the majority of passengers want to get to.

Indeed, cutting it back to Ely would be nonsensical.

Stansted Airport, it'll come back to full life in no time I suspect. I like the airport and am quite happy to use it, of course I'm waiting patiently for the world to return to a more normal state before I start flying again. Quite, my next trip is not scheduled to be until March 2022 when I shall hopefully do my postponed by 2 years trip to Iceland. Whether I fly out of Stansted, Luton or the mighty Heathrow remains to be seen.

I agree with another poster, the Stansted Express fare can be incredibly expensive so I normally go there on National Express from London.

 

[paul1609]

Not specifically Stansted, but I do think Glasgow Airport is in trouble, having suffered some big blows during the last few years:

1. Thomas Cook going bankrupt, which had quite a big base at Glasgow
2. Flybe going into demise, which again had a big base at Glasgow
3. Ryanair closing their base at Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh and cutting the majority of the destinations.
4. COVID
5. Virgin Atlantic pulling out of Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh.

I think a few airports will end up in a spot of bother over the next year or so, depending on how well passenger numbers go.

I flew Gatwick, Glasgow and on to Barra a couple of weeks ago. Glasgow had fewer departures than normal but seemed reasonably busy. On the way back I couldn't get a reasonably priced last minute flight to any of the London airports so did The overnight Megabus.

 

[dk1]

The STEX website says advance tickets start from £9.70 single. That strikes me as a bargain. I’ve looked at next month & it’s coming up as £11 so not too bad.

 

[Bald Rick]

With the propensity of Brits to travel I think the 28.1m 2019 passenger figures returning will depend upon post covid restrictions and whether or not governments of all countries and the airlines make travel as a similar an experience as pre-covid 2020.

When I said “Stansted is in trouble”, I didn’t mean that it would be under threat of closure.

What I did mean is that it will struggle to get back to preCovid levels, and the recovery trend will be worse than for other airports.

IIRC Stansted had a higher proportion of ‘inbound’ flows than Gatwick / Luton, ie the latter two are mostly Brits heading abroad (and returning) Stansted has more people from abroad flying in, before going back, often for work reasons. The propensity of Brits to fly away on holiday will of course be reliant on covid restrictions etc, but the propensity for foreign workers to fly here is subject ‘other factors’.

And don’t underestimate the impact the Luton DART will have. It knocks 15 minutes + (plus a load of hassle) off the central London to Luton terminal generalised journey time, and that will make it much more attractive for passengers at the margins, of which there are millions.

... until March 2022 when I shall hopefully do my postponed by 2 years trip to Iceland. Whether I fly out of Stansted, Luton or the mighty Heathrow remains to be seen.

You won’t be flying from Stansted if you choose to go on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday. (Unless your trip reports are expanding into the realms of Private Jets )

 

[alistairlees]

The STEX website says advance tickets start from £9.70 single. That strikes me as a bargain. I’ve looked at next month & it’s coming up as £11 so not too bad.

Although the fares don't appear to be in the fares database, so you can't get them anywhere else.

 

[route101]

The STEX website says advance tickets start from £9.70 single. That strikes me as a bargain. I’ve looked at next month & it’s coming up as £11 so not too bad.

You have to hope to your flight is on time for them advances from Stansted.

 

[cactustwirly]

When I said “Stansted is in trouble”, I didn’t mean that it would be under threat of closure.

What I did mean is that it will struggle to get back to preCovid levels, and the recovery trend will be worse than for other airports.

IIRC Stansted had a higher proportion of ‘inbound’ flows than Gatwick / Luton, ie the latter two are mostly Brits heading abroad (and returning) Stansted has more people from abroad flying in, before going back, often for work reasons. The propensity of Brits to fly away on holiday will of course be reliant on covid restrictions etc, but the propensity for foreign workers to fly here is subject ‘other factors’.

And don’t underestimate the impact the Luton DART will have. It knocks 15 minutes + (plus a load of hassle) off the central London to Luton terminal generalised journey time, and that will make it much more attractive for passengers at the margins, of which there are millions.



You won’t be flying from Stansted if you choose to go on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday. (Unless your trip reports are expanding into the realms of Private Jets )

Remember Stansted is the biggest base for the largest airline in Europe (Ryanair), and it serves the most destinations in Europe. So I think it's in a relatively strong position.

Luton is more focused to eastern Europe as the biggest airline there is Wizz, who serve mainly eastern Europe.

 

[snookertam]

Not specifically Stansted, but I do think Glasgow Airport is in trouble, having suffered some big blows during the last few years:

1. Thomas Cook going bankrupt, which had quite a big base at Glasgow
2. Flybe going into demise, which again had a big base at Glasgow
3. Ryanair closing their base at Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh and cutting the majority of the destinations.
4. COVID
5. Virgin Atlantic pulling out of Glasgow in favour of Edinburgh.

I think a few airports will end up in a spot of bother over the next year or so, depending on how well passenger numbers go.

Stansted will be fine eventually. Southend is the one that’s in bother.

If passenger numbers to Stansted don’t recover, I can definitely see the Stansted Express remaining at 2tph.

There has been a clear movement in favour of Edinburgh as a ‘national airport’ for Scotland with Glasgow becoming more regional. Glasgow had Emirates to Dubai pre-Covid twice a day but they also opened up a route to Edinburgh as well.

I can’t see Glasgow recovering beyond regional/islands, London and sunshine holiday flights. Edinburgh is increasingly the place to go for wider destinations in Europe and beyond.

Edinburgh Airport being to the west of the city, closer to the rest of the country’s population centres, and having a fixed transport link (for all its faults) makes a big difference. It’s also pitched itself very well to airlines. Glasgow over the years has relied on the Jet 2 fortnight in the Canaries market but that might not be enough.

The lack of direct rail link probably has an effect as well.

 

[paul1609]

You have to hope to your flight is on time for them advances from Stansted.

National Express allow +/- 3 hours on the A9 to Stratford.

 

[Techniquest]

The STEX website says advance tickets start from £9.70 single. That strikes me as a bargain. I’ve looked at next month & it’s coming up as £11 so not too bad.

Quite so, I found I could book £8 Advances happily from London to Bishops Stortford recently, so I suspect the £9.70 fare to Stansted Airport would have been available too. £11 Advances to the airport aren't bad, considering the distance, but as someone else said you are relying on on time flights etc for the way back. Which does make it awkward.

Bald Rick is right, that new link at Luton will be a game changer. I'll certainly be considering it, no question of it! As for flying to Iceland on certain days only, maybe I will be heading out on a private jet The trip report will reveal all

 

[Bald Rick]

Luton is more focused to eastern Europe as the biggest airline there is Wizz, who serve mainly eastern Europe.

Wizz is the biggest airline now, but until Covid it was easyJet (and they are coming back strongly).

 

[Glenn1969]

Wizz is the biggest airline now, but until Covid it was easyJet (and they are coming back strongly).

but we are nowhere near being through Covid. I am not expecting us to get through winter without having to reimpose restrictions of some kind

 

[Techniquest]

but we are nowhere near being through Covid. I am not expecting us to get through winter without having to reimpose restrictions of some kind

Same here. Once everyone's done their Christmas shopping (I'm lucky, I have very little of that to do) and feasted on their enormous meals, throwing most of it out, I'll be shocked if there's no restrictions on movements again.

Here's hoping though that common sense starts spreading through the world again and we get through winter without issue...

 

[Class 170101]

Except that Ely doesn't have the capacity to terminate the current XC service, and Cambridge is where the majority of passengers want to get to.

Oh agreed, but I was merely commenting if you went on the argument that diesels under the wires should not be allowed then the XC service can only run to Ely (and perhaps be diverted to Norwich). The traffic generator and destination is definitely Cambridge.

When I said “Stansted is in trouble”, I didn’t mean that it would be under threat of closure.

What I did mean is that it will struggle to get back to preCovid levels, and the recovery trend will be worse than for other airports.

I think it will go back fairly quickly. Heathrow won't expand without government support reference for the reasons I noted in my earlier post regarding railway spending and the green lobby are hardly likely to go quietly regarding extra runway construction. I'd agree with the poster above that Southend Airport is in more trouble but even there the runway is now poorly utilised so there is scope for expansion in use before Heathrow runway three is built.

but we are nowhere near being through Covid. I am not expecting us to get through winter without having to reimpose restrictions of some kind

I'm inclined to agree.

 

[dk1]

During 2018/19 it was often commented that the Stansted Express was one of the most successful parts of the GA network. The loadings on the then every 15 minute 8-car 379s where very healthy indeed. It was very noticeable at Liverpool Street. Hopefully we can get back to that over the next year or so & smash the 24.8 million reciord of passengers passing through the airport in a single year that had then recently been set.

 

[deltic]

Given Stansted received planning permission earlier this year to grow to 43m passengers a year and so far this year seems to be handling more passengers than Gatwick it seems to be doing very well for itself.

 

[pelli]

The STEX website says advance tickets start from £9.70 single. That strikes me as a bargain. I’ve looked at next month & it’s coming up as £11 so not too bad.

You have to hope to your flight is on time for them advances from Stansted.

The Stansted Airport "Advance Offers" are more like walk-up single/returns than usual Advance train tickets: "catch any train on your outbound travel date, and return any time within a month", although break of journey is not allowed, railcard discounts do not apply, and the tickets are "Non-exchangeable, non-refundable".

 

[Geogregor]

When I said “Stansted is in trouble”, I didn’t mean that it would be under threat of closure.

What I did mean is that it will struggle to get back to preCovid levels, and the recovery trend will be worse than for other airports.

IIRC Stansted had a higher proportion of ‘inbound’ flows than Gatwick / Luton, ie the latter two are mostly Brits heading abroad (and returning) Stansted has more people from abroad flying in, before going back, often for work reasons. The propensity of Brits to fly away on holiday will of course be reliant on covid restrictions etc, but the propensity for foreign workers to fly here is subject ‘other factors’.

And don’t underestimate the impact the Luton DART will have. It knocks 15 minutes + (plus a load of hassle) off the central London to Luton terminal generalised journey time, and that will make it much more attractive for passengers at the margins, of which there are millions.



You won’t be flying from Stansted if you choose to go on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday. (Unless your trip reports are expanding into the realms of Private Jets )

Stansted and Luton have very similar type of passengers. Mix of Brits going on cheap holidays as well as immigrants visiting families and friends.

We flew from Portugal two weeks ago and the airport was packed. Good half an hour waiting to through the immigration. And the Stansted Express was full, people were even standing in the vestibules.

Things might be a bit tight this winter but if we pass it without major border closures things should definitely pick up next year.

 

[TravelDream]

With the propensity of Brits to travel I think the 28.1m 2019 passenger figures returning will depend upon post covid restrictions and whether or not governments of all countries and the airlines make travel as a similar an experience as pre-covid 2020.

Stansted will undoubtedly break that figure again within the next three years in my opinion.
The Stansted Express was incredibly successful before Covid and will be again when things pick up again.

European traffic has really picked up a lot this summer. Less so to the UK due to restrictions, but flights on the continent have been busy. US passenger numbers are also comfortably at 3/4 of 2019's numbers. There is clearly demand to travel, and it is just restrictions holding things back. If 2022 brings lighter regulations like no testing/ quarantine for the vaccinated, numbers will boom here too.

I have to say, I don't agree with most of what Bald Rick said too (I'm talking a lot about 2019 of course).
Stansted is still the only major London airport with significant capacity for growth.
Luton's runway has capacity, but the terminal and apron don't. Gatwick, City and Heathrow are basically at capacity. Stansted and Luton also have a very similar mix of passengers. In fact, Luton is more reliant on Eastern Europe than Stansted since the demise of Monarch and rise of Wizz.

 

[Bald Rick]

During 2018/19 it was often commented that the Stansted Express was one of the most successful parts of the GA network.

Successful in that it was the most lucrative. Something like 10% of the revenue of the whole franchise, for 2-3% of the cost was something I heard said. Not sure how correct that is but it will be close.

 

[dk1]

Successful in that it was the most lucrative. Something like 10% of the revenue of the whole franchise, for 2-3% of the cost was something I heard said. Not sure how correct that is but it will be close.

No successful in the fastest growing part of the franchise when many of the other routes had stagnated a bit whilst regional routes where having a torrid time with reliability.

 

[Ianno87]

. Something like 10% of the revenue of the whole franchise, for 2-3% of the cost was something I heard said.

Effectively for most of the day (early morning to late evening) it was 8-car trains, loaded to a high load factor most of the day, with passengers largely not using season tickets or Railcard discounts. The yield per passenger must have been very high.

All covered by a mere 18 trainsets (9 x 8-car diagrams) - a fraction of the total GA fleet.

So I can believe what you say.

 

[Mikey C]

Stansted to me, of all the "London" airports seems one of the best located for road access, hence the number of coach services that serve it, especially as the rail options are far less comprehensive than say Gatwick

 

[Techniquest]

The Stansted Airport "Advance Offers" are more like walk-up single/returns than usual Advance train tickets: "catch any train on your outbound travel date, and return any time within a month", although break of journey is not allowed, railcard discounts do not apply, and the tickets are "Non-exchangeable, non-refundable".

I did not know about such an excellent offer, I really hope to remember it exists when I go to Stansted next. Of course, it's more likely I'll do Heathrow as I do like that airport. We'll see in January what happens!

As someone else said, if we get to a point where vaccinated people don't have to have a test before/during/after the trip, then there will be a flood of people going back to the airlines. I'll be one of them, indeed the same day that news is confirmed I'll be tapping my credit card numbers into an airline app/website and getting something going. I want to get back in the air, I'll happily wear a face covering and all that, but I can't be dealing with the tests. It's as simple as that, and I suspect much of the population will feel similar on testing