When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Gloster]

Much though I disliked what she did to the country, there's no way she would have attempted to hang on so desperately, she'd have had a bit more pride. Denis would probably have had a quiet word, as opposite a spouse as you could think of from Carrie.

It was said that she was intending to fight on after the first ballot, in which she had only just failed to achieve a sufficient majority over Heseltine to win outright. However, Denis persuaded her that it was time to bow out with some remaining dignity. (I am using ‘dignity’ when referring to Thatcher. Grief!)

Has Ben Wallace had the luck or judgement to avoid going on TV to defend the indefensible?

 

[GusB]

Much though I disliked what she did to the country, there's no way she would have attempted to hang on so desperately, she'd have had a bit more pride. Denis would probably have had a quiet word, as opposite a spouse as you could think of from Carrie.

Quite. She knew when the game was up and showed some dignity when it was time for her to go.

 

[birchesgreen]

Carrie? Hasn't she left Johnson and shacked up with Zac Goldsmith? Or going to? Who knows anymore, the whole Westminster thing now has more overblown melodrama than Eastenders.

 

[edwin_m]

The 2010-15 coalition period was reasonable in my view. Liberals were able to temper Tories aspirations but stupid Liberal voters didn't like what they had implemented and instigated they chaos we now find ourselves in. Coalitions by their nature require compromises and the Liberals should have realised that more than anyone else.

The LibDems did indeed stop some of the more extreme Tory ideas in that period and indeed Cameron was may well have assumed he would still need them in a coalition after 2015 so he could use them as an excuse to scrap the promise of a Brexit referendum. However they played their hand badly - they should have looked a lot less smug about being in government, and very publicly pushed back when something was proposed that wasn't in the agreement and wasn't in line with their principles. As it was they came across as enabling all the Tory ideas their voters didn't like, even though that wasn't always the case.

 

[nw1]

If I was a Tory MP wanting to get rid of Boris Johnson, I'd be very tempted to wait 3 more weeks before putting my letter in: That's when the two upcoming byelections take place. Both are probably lost causes for the Tories, and it's much more likely that Boris would be defeated in a leadership vote soon after that date.

Wakefield yes, but Tiverton? And I say this, obviously, as someone who does not support the Tories.

 

[jfollows]

Laughable and ludicrous comments by one of the many dim Cabinet members this morning (Dominic Raab, that is) to the extent that because Boris only "unintentionally" and "inadvertently" broke the law, then that's OK basically. So I have the obvious thought of using that in my defence next time I'm caught speeding. What a stupid thing to say!

 

[najaB]

Laughable and ludicrous comments by one of the many dim Cabinet members this morning (Dominic Raab, that is) to the extent that because Boris only "unintentionally" and "inadvertently" broke the law, then that's OK basically. So I have the obvious thought of using that in my defence next time I'm caught speeding.

Especially if you only speed in a very limited and specific way!

 

[jfollows]

And Raab clearly misses the point that the problem with the 'ministerial code' is that Boris lied to everyone about what he'd done, by the time he was asked about it he knew that his behaviour had been dodgy but he insisted that he'd done nothing wrong. As many of us have said already, if he'd owned up to it from the start then it would all be over by now, but he can't do that.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Wakefield yes, but Tiverton? And I say this, obviously, as someone who does not support the Tories.

Yep, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm fairly sure Tiverton is lost. And I'm someone who *does* support the Tories

My reasoning is that in North Shropshire, the Tory vote fell from 63% in 2019 to 32% at the by-election. In Tiverton and Honiton the Tories got 60% in 2019. Even if they do a bit better than in North Shropshire, I can't see them getting more than 40% of the vote in this by-election. And with Labour voters voting tactically for the LibDems, I also can't see Labour+minor candidates getting more than 20% between them. That leaves at least 40% vote share for the LibDems.

If I'm wrong and the Tories do hold the seat, then you can requote this post back in 3 weeks and laugh at me

 

[bspahh]

Yep, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm fairly sure Tiverton is lost. And I'm someone who *does* support the Tories

My reasoning is that in North Shropshire, the Tory vote fell from 63% in 2019 to 32% at the by-election. In Tiverton and Honiton the Tories got 60% in 2019. Even if they do a bit better than in North Shropshire, I can't see them getting more than 40% of the vote in this by-election. And with Labour voters voting tactically for the LibDems, I also can't see Labour+minor candidates getting more than 20% between them. That leaves at least 40% vote share for the LibDems.

If I'm wrong and the Tories do hold the seat, then you can requote this post back in 3 weeks and laugh at me

At the moment if you bet £1 for the the Lib Dems to win the Tiverton and Honiton bye election you would win £1.41 and get your £1 back. If you bet for the conservatives to win, you would get £2.85

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/tiverton-and-honiton-by-election

For Wakefield, a £1 bet for Labour to win will earn you 10p plus your stake back, or £11 if you back the conservatives and they win.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/wakefield-by-election

The odds are now shorter for Johnson to quit this year (13/10) than in 2024 or later (6/4).

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/boris-johnson-exit-date

 

[Typhoon]

Yep, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm fairly sure Tiverton is lost. And I'm someone who *does* support the Tories

My reasoning is that in North Shropshire, the Tory vote fell from 63% in 2019 to 32% at the by-election. In Tiverton and Honiton the Tories got 60% in 2019. Even if they do a bit better than in North Shropshire, I can't see them getting more than 40% of the vote in this by-election. And with Labour voters voting tactically for the LibDems, I also can't see Labour+minor candidates getting more than 20% between them. That leaves at least 40% vote share for the LibDems.

If I'm wrong and the Tories do hold the seat, then you can requote this post back in 3 weeks and laugh at me

One difference is that the Conservatives have learnt a lesson. Their candidate is local - former headteacher and businesswoman. Voters may well know her. North Shropshire - candidate had absolutely no link (or seemingly empathy) with the area,

 

[Acfb]

Yep, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm fairly sure Tiverton is lost. And I'm someone who *does* support the Tories

My reasoning is that in North Shropshire, the Tory vote fell from 63% in 2019 to 32% at the by-election. In Tiverton and Honiton the Tories got 60% in 2019. Even if they do a bit better than in North Shropshire, I can't see them getting more than 40% of the vote in this by-election. And with Labour voters voting tactically for the LibDems, I also can't see Labour+minor candidates getting more than 20% between them. That leaves at least 40% vote share for the LibDems.

If I'm wrong and the Tories do hold the seat, then you can requote this post back in 3 weeks and laugh at me

Should be an LD win. I don't think they'll win it by 16% like with N Shropshire but should win it by at least 2000 IMO, they will have no problems getting in lots activists from next door Somerset.

Like North Shropshire it probably doesn't mean much in the longer term as they will certainly lose it back to the Tories at the GE but it will be good for the LD narrative in the SW and boost their chances of winning back multiple seats in Somerset.

I think the result will be roughly:

LD 48%
Con 40%
Lab 6%
Others 6%

 

[brad465]

If I was a Tory MP wanting to get rid of Boris Johnson, I'd be very tempted to wait 3 more weeks before putting my letter in: That's when the two upcoming byelections take place. Both are probably lost causes for the Tories, and it's much more likely that Boris would be defeated in a leadership vote soon after that date.

Wakefield yes, but Tiverton? And I say this, obviously, as someone who does not support the Tories.

Also, if Johnson faces a challenge soon and wins it, but then later this year the Privileges Committee investigating his misleading of Parliament recommends a suspension long enough for a recall petition, we could be in quite the constitutional crisis if Johnson doesn't resign. Parliament would have to approve the suspension (see Paterson debacle for what happens if they don't), and Johnson would likely be recalled as he's in a marginal constituency, meaning we'd have a PM who cannot attend Parliament and cannot be forced out without a desperate change in party leadership rules.

 

[Mag_seven]

I appreciate that sometimes its difficult not to cross reference issues with other parties but can we try and keep the discussion in this thread to Boris Johnson and the Tories.

I've moved some posts that were discussing the Liberal Democrats to the existing thread about that party:

Where did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats ?

As today brings about Elections for various offices in the whole of Great Britain, this once great Party stands on the edge of extinction and becoming if it is not already an irrelevance. Behind The Greens in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales and just about everyone in England it must be a major...

www.railforums.co.uk

thanks

 

[Busaholic]

Yep, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm fairly sure Tiverton is lost. And I'm someone who *does* support the Tories



If I'm wrong and the Tories do hold the seat, then you can requote this post back in 3 weeks and laugh at me

I agree on your first sentence. Look at the Somerset local election results a month ago - this seat is right on the Somerset border, and Neil Parish lived and farmed in that county. He will have had a large personal vote too either despite or because of his 'Remainer' position, rare for Tories in the S.W. Among the Tory MPs calling on Johnson to quit is Anne-Marie Morris, only restored to the Conservative whip in January, who sits for Newton Abbot, not too far away. She's obviously fearful of losing her seat too come the next election.

 

[Statto]

It may take 54 letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a vote of no confidence (VONC), what it needs is 180 or more Tory MPs to vote against Bozo, for him to lose the vote, but what could happen, is he wins the VONC, the Tories are split, like they were under the Major Government, for anyone who remembers that Government.

 

[Typhoon]

I agree on your first sentence. Look at the Somerset local election results a month ago - this seat is right on the Somerset border, and Neil Parish lived and farmed in that county. He will have had a large personal vote too either despite or because of his 'Remainer' position, rare for Tories in the S.W. Among the Tory MPs calling on Johnson to quit is Anne-Marie Morris, only restored to the Conservative whip in January, who sits for Newton Abbot, not too far away. She's obviously fearful of losing her seat too come the next election.

Just for clarity, Anne-Marie Morris had the whip removed in January following her support for a Labour motion to cut VAT on domestic fuel. It has only recently been restored (maybe not the smartest of moves).

Newton Abbot MP Anne Marie Morris is also among the letter writers, having confirmed that she has had the Tory whip restored after it was removed in January for her decision to support an opposition move to cut VAT on energy bills.

To give her her due, she has not been afraid to speak out or rebel so at least part of her reasoning may be because she feels that Johnson is not up to the job and isn't afraid to say so. She did not benefit from the surge in support for the Conservatives in 2019 so probably feels she owes him nothing.

Source: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/list-tory...k7NfFDJ-6_cH4DHzSiSCLR-SqlyFvcPNNFlCrXSqcM6X5

 

[The Ham]

It may take 54 letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a vote of no confidence (VONC), what it needs is 180 or more Tory MPs to vote against Bozo, for him to lose the vote, but what could happen, is he wins the VONC, the Tories are split, like they were under the Major Government, for anyone who remembers that Government.

He then can't have a vote of no confidence for another 12 months.

However I suspect that if he does win there'll be a lot of Tory MP's worried about their prospects at the next election.

As such a win is likely to split the Tory vote, now whilst Boris losing could result in some not voting for their MP out of loyalty to Boris probably not that many. Now whilst such a vote is secret there will be quite a few who will not vote Tory as they feel let down by the goings on in government (whilst some won't care there's still upset that it's "seen" that a work leaving do is more important than allowing funerals). Likewise there's going to be some who, if it's known that their MP voted against Boris will want to punish them (the thinking being there's an 80 seat majority so it doesn't matter if we get rid of a few of our own for their actions, or just give them a scare by reducing their majority in a safe seat so they remain loyal in the future).

Whilst throwing cash at people to fix the cost increases in energy, if there had been the same spending over the last decade to give the poorest better insulated houses, rules banning the renting of homes with lower EPC ratings than D (or higher tax bills for those who did) and those in social housing being provided with solar (as well continued grants for those buying solar) then the impact would be far lower (as not only less energy would have been used, but with more solar available the amount of gas in the grid would have been lower limiting the impact on electricity bills from rising gas prices, if there was enough of an uptake the money paid to Russia would have been lower potentially reducing the risk of war).

Now whilst this money is going to help (but it's still quite a way short if your bill are above average, which is often those on pre pay meters) this year, what happens next year if bills are still high?

Also, whilst the price cap can go down this only happens twice a year. As such energy companies don't have to pass their savings on (so the reversing the impact of those companies going bust as the process rose) until the cap changes, don't expect the standard prices to fall as quick as the wholesale prices. Therefore, with the price cap still rising in October, it's likely to be some while before energy prices get lower.

Which leads to the quotation, what happens next year if bills are still high?

 

[Typhoon]

Also, whilst the price cap can go down this only happens twice a year. As such energy companies don't have to pass their savings on (so the reversing the impact of those companies going bust as the process rose) until the cap changes, don't expect the standard prices to fall as quick as the wholesale prices. Therefore, with the price cap still rising in October, it's likely to be some while before energy prices get lower.

Which leads to the quotation, what happens next year if bills are still high?

The energy price cap, which governs what most pay for their energy, is set to change every three months from October under plans announced by Ofgem today. The regulator also revealed it will make the 'market stabilisation charge' harsher. This is a charge levied on firms acquiring new customers with cheaper fixed deals, which will likely make it harder for suppliers to undercut the price cap.

The plan to increase how often the price cap is reviewed means it will now additionally change every January and July, not just in April and October. According to the regulator, this means the price cap can reflect the "most up-to-date and accurate energy prices". Ofgem says it will help provide stability in the market and reduce supplier failures, with more than 20 failures last winter pushing up costs across the energy market.

This will be fine if prices are set to peak - but if not, then it will increase hardship (although the changes should make the transition smoother).

Source: https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/n...gs Price cap,17 February 2023 3 more rows

 

[The Ham]

Not a news story that Boris will want to read in a newspaper which is traditionally one that is supportive of the Tories:

Boris Johnson should resign before he is forced out, say grassroots Conservatives

Prime Minister told he risks driving away swing voters and has not been ‘wholly honest’ about partygate

www.telegraph.co.uk

Boris Johnson should resign before he is forced out by his own MPs, the head of the Grassroots Conservatives activist group has said amid signs of concern among leading local Tories.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Ed Costello said Mr Johnson had not been “wholly honest” about lockdown-breaking parties at Downing Street and risked driving away swing voters at the next election.
Other senior local party figures in seats represented by Cabinet ministers also voiced discomfort about Mr Johnson’s predicament to The Telegraph.
Frustration among grassroots Tories comes in a week when Conservative MPs have been back in their constituencies during recess, with scores weighing up what to do about the Prime Minister’s political future.
To date, 30 have publicly urged him to quit, and there is speculation that a confidence vote could take place as soon as next week if the threshold of 54 letters to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, is reached.
Grassroots Conservatives was launched during David Cameron’s premiership to pressure the party into upholding “small-c” Conservative values of “stable family, sound economy and strong defence”.
Mr Costello told The Telegraph: “I’ve come to the conclusion that he probably should resign, and if he had any sense he would resign before he was pushed.
“He needs to go before the next election, because some of what he has done will put off voters. He just hasn’t been wholly honest about what went on, and it would have been better if he ’fessed up and it would all have been over.”

It carries on to quote a few more people in similar, with some in a similar vein and others supportive (about 3:2 in total, which in itself shows that it's a divisive subject but it's not something that even those in the Tory Party are moving on from).

Edit:
There's also a poll and at the time of this post the results were:
59% quit now
27% apologise and move on
14% hands over before the next election
20,913 votes

Which also isn't a good poll, now whilst open to anyone it's only been up for less than 12 hours (the article is date stamped as 7pm on 2nd June) so probably hasn't been widely shared on social medias to try and fix them outcome negatively for Boris.

 

[Gloster]

Various outlets are reporting that there was booing when Johnson arrived at the Jubilee service. When you consider the likely attitudes of those who stand around watching attendees arrive (tourists excluded), this should give the Conservative Party food for thought.

 

[jon0844]

So a Mail on Sunday journalist reckons that those who booed Boris were just climate change idiots, but then concluded that nobody booed Kier Starmer, which in some way means he was being blanked.

That must be worse than being booed apparently.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

So a Mail on Sunday journalist reckons that those who booed Boris were just climate change idiots, but then concluded that nobody booed Kier Starmer, which in some way means he was being blanked.

Where were those "idiots" from who ran in front of the mounted horses yesterday? I think that they fared better than the suffragette Emily Davidson who ran in front of the horse in the Epsom Derby on 4th June 1913 and died as a result of her actions.

 

[jon0844]

I have no idea what happened to them after they got dragged away, but I doubt it was only climate protestors booing Boris. Still, it suits a narrative for some.

 

[birchesgreen]

Oh was it a real protest? I thought it was part of the parade, representing the British tradition in peaceful protest.

 

[Typhoon]

Where were those "idiots" from who ran in front of the mounted horses yesterday? I think that they fared better than the suffragette Emily Davidson who ran in front of the horse in the Epsom Derby on 4th June 1913 and died as a result of her actions.

Surely that depends on what she set out to achieve. It is difficult sometimes to understand why people do things but I have known of her, and her cause, since secondary school, a very traditional grammar school. I can quote some other suffragettes (mainly those named 'Pankhurst') but no suffragists. She was a militant, even by suffragette standards and had tried to commit suicide in prison by throwing herself off of a balcony so she may well have achieved what she set out to. She paid a heavy price but, in retrospect, if it was possible to ask her, she may consider it worthwhile. What is absolutely certain is that the idiots of whom you write will be forgotten next week - as will the climate activists. The only one I can ever remember is Swampy. I was totally unaware that the protest had happened.

 

[jon0844]

I saw two people sit down and get moved on. Hardly a big protest.

 

[Gloster]

It is difficult to tell how many protesters were involved. Looking at videos I would have guessed five to seven, possibly at two different points on The Mall. Newspapers are vague, but seem to be in the two or four to eight range. The organisation behind it said that they were trying to get twenty-five on to the parade route. Note: despite the way some of the newspapers reported it, this was their stated aim in advance, not the number that they claimed did cause the disruption.

 

[Typhoon]

It could be the 'Imperial Units' distraction is about to antagonise some of their staunchest supporters:

The government has launched a review of how traders can use the UK's traditional weighing system for goods.

British shops had to use metric measurements under EU rules, with the option to show imperial equivalents - pounds and ounces - alongside.

But critics say the review is nostalgic and could burden businesses.

Asda chairman and Tory peer Lord Rose said promoting the use of imperial measurements post-Brexit would only please a "small minority who hark for the past".

"It's complete and utter nonsense and it will add cost to those people who have to put it into place," Lord Rose told Times Radio.

He added: "We have got serious problems in the world and we're now saying let's go backwards. Does anybody in this country below the age of about 40 know how many ounces there are in a pound?"

It would be ironic if some of the biggest opposition to the review comes from the Lords (many of whom will know how many ounces in a pound).

source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61683111

 

[jon0844]

I hope all those demanding imperial measurements now boycott all the shops that refuse to waste money on this nonsense.