That doesn't negate the "...they want the Russians to know they’re watching." point though.
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Russia invades Ukraine
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That doesn't negate the "...they want the Russians to know they’re watching." point though.
Indeed. NATO told Russia about it in advance of course. Quite publicly!
DustyBin
Established Member
That’s a good point. Where is this taking place though? The aircraft I saw were all very close to Kaliningrad and Ukraine; the usual places really but there were more of them than usual.
Cloud Strife
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Another day, and IMO, I think I understand what Russia is planning to do. They've mobilised potentially between 400-500,000 men, and there are more and more intercepted communications confirming that soldiers are being thrown onto the front lines with zero training or equipment beyond what they've brought themselves.
And so: I predict that they're simply going to throw men into the meat grinder in the hope of a miracle. Russia might well achieve some small successes with this approach (Bakhmut, for instance), but it's very clear that Ukraine has the weapons and the battlefield experience to simply tear apart these new forces. The end result is going to be the same, the Russians will face an appalling amount of losses, but the problematic part is that Russia will simply keep throwing fresh meat into the meat grinder. Over time, I'd expect the Ukrainians to get better and better at dealing with them to the point where they'll incur minimal losses while inflicting huge amounts of damage.
As for the Belarusian Army, most reasonable commentators on this issue suggest that not only has Lukashenko done nothing to prepare the Belarusian Army for an offensive strike, but that the loyalty of the Belarusian forces is questionable at best. There's also the issue that the good Belarusian equipment has already been used by Russia, so they have nothing left to be used that isn't needed for defence against NATO.
My only wonder is: just how much will the Russian leadership take? If Russia loses another 100,000 men - at which point do they say 'enough'?
That's nothing unusual. NATO forces are always doing things in/around the eastern borders, just as Russia/Belarus carry out part of the Zapad exercises near the Polish border.
And so: I predict that they're simply going to throw men into the meat grinder in the hope of a miracle. Russia might well achieve some small successes with this approach (Bakhmut, for instance), but it's very clear that Ukraine has the weapons and the battlefield experience to simply tear apart these new forces. The end result is going to be the same, the Russians will face an appalling amount of losses, but the problematic part is that Russia will simply keep throwing fresh meat into the meat grinder. Over time, I'd expect the Ukrainians to get better and better at dealing with them to the point where they'll incur minimal losses while inflicting huge amounts of damage.
As for the Belarusian Army, most reasonable commentators on this issue suggest that not only has Lukashenko done nothing to prepare the Belarusian Army for an offensive strike, but that the loyalty of the Belarusian forces is questionable at best. There's also the issue that the good Belarusian equipment has already been used by Russia, so they have nothing left to be used that isn't needed for defence against NATO.
My only wonder is: just how much will the Russian leadership take? If Russia loses another 100,000 men - at which point do they say 'enough'?
That's nothing unusual. NATO forces are always doing things in/around the eastern borders, just as Russia/Belarus carry out part of the Zapad exercises near the Polish border.
DustyBin
Established Member
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
100K men is 0.07% of Russia's population - small enough that they can probably keep the extent of casualties hidden from the Russian population without too much difficulty given their media restrictions. In a Western democracy, losing that % of your population to an unpopular foreign war would be totally unfeasible - any democratic Government would probably collapse long before that point, but of course Russia isn't a democracy. I would guess they could afford to lose a lot more than that if the limiting factor is, unrest in Russia from too many people getting killed.
Another limiting factor would be, how many men can they call up for military service before the Government becomes too unpopular to control its population. Clearly the number called up will be a lot bigger than the number of casualties, but I'm not sure how much bigger, or how to guess at what level of call-ups would cause too much unrest for Putin to cope with.
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Giugiaro
Member
Well, it depends. Are they going through plans in the Cyrillic alphabet, or the Roman alphabet?
If they ran through both already, there's always the Greek alphabet.
Given that they've "Seen themselves Greek" trying toconquer Ukraine defend the Russian minorities from the evil Nazi puppets, they might as well start to make their way to Omega!!! 
If they ran through both already, there's always the Greek alphabet.
Given that they've "Seen themselves Greek" trying to
It is, however, a larger percentage of working aged men. Plus, for every man who dies there will be two or three who will never work at full productivity again, and another who has left the country.
It's only a matter of time before the losses cripple the Russian economy, if they haven't already.
gingerheid
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It seems that Russia hopes it has more men than Ukraine has bullets 
... or alternatively, that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine. This is of course more realistic than hoping to win the lottery, as elements of both the further left and the far right do support Russia.
... or alternatively, that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine. This is of course more realistic than hoping to win the lottery, as elements of both the further left and the far right do support Russia.
Annetts key
Established Member
The limiting factor may be what actually happens on the battlefields. If the called up men realise that they face certain death trying to fight the Ukrainian forces, will they instead group together and rebel against the Russian army?
No sign whatsoever of the west loosing interest or reducing support for Ukraine. And with the mid term elections in the U.S.A., even if the Democrats loose overall control of Congress, plans are already in place for the lend lease support. And there is still time for further laws to be passed. So American help will keep on coming.
Putin’s gamble looks like it will fail. Already all of the attacks by Russia on the battlefields are being repulsed by Ukrainian forces. And often the counter attacks launched by Ukrainian forces after an attack by Russia are resulting in the Russians loosing more ground.
There is also the question of Russia continuing to loose heavy equipment. They are losing tanks, artillery, and other fighting vehicles far faster than they can obtain replacements, let alone build new units.
There is only so much equipment that can be found and sent to the front lines. Once it’s gone, just men with rifles is not going to help stop the Ukrainian army.
And Ukraine continues to send their mobilised men to Western countries for proper training. Well trained, well equipped troops will outfight and outlast significantly higher numbers of untrained, poorly equipped men.
And although Putin controls the media in Russia, the Russian state does not have full control of mobile telephones and what people say to one another. Look at the problems the mobilisation has caused so far. It can only get worse as more and more families discover the truth, that their men are either never coming home ever again, or they are seriously injured and may never fully recover. This will eventually have an effect.
It seems that Russia hopes it has more men than Ukraine has bullets
... or alternatively, that the west will get tired of supporting Ukraine. This is of course more realistic than hoping to win the lottery, as elements of both the further left and the far right do support Russia.
No sign whatsoever of the west loosing interest or reducing support for Ukraine. And with the mid term elections in the U.S.A., even if the Democrats loose overall control of Congress, plans are already in place for the lend lease support. And there is still time for further laws to be passed. So American help will keep on coming.
Putin’s gamble looks like it will fail. Already all of the attacks by Russia on the battlefields are being repulsed by Ukrainian forces. And often the counter attacks launched by Ukrainian forces after an attack by Russia are resulting in the Russians loosing more ground.
There is also the question of Russia continuing to loose heavy equipment. They are losing tanks, artillery, and other fighting vehicles far faster than they can obtain replacements, let alone build new units.
There is only so much equipment that can be found and sent to the front lines. Once it’s gone, just men with rifles is not going to help stop the Ukrainian army.
And Ukraine continues to send their mobilised men to Western countries for proper training. Well trained, well equipped troops will outfight and outlast significantly higher numbers of untrained, poorly equipped men.
And although Putin controls the media in Russia, the Russian state does not have full control of mobile telephones and what people say to one another. Look at the problems the mobilisation has caused so far. It can only get worse as more and more families discover the truth, that their men are either never coming home ever again, or they are seriously injured and may never fully recover. This will eventually have an effect.
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indeed, I've seen reports of Belarusian tanks heading towards Russia in large numbers. Now whether they were needed, or if it was a bargaining chip to keep Belarus out of the war, but still stay on Putins good side is unknown.
DustyBin
Established Member
"Good" is a relative term, but I believe they were T-72 variants which are better than the T-62s the Russians are resurrecting....
They're all held in high regard by NLAW users, Javelin wielders, scrap metal collectors and Ukrainian farmers however!
Cloud Strife
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Yes, exactly this. Untrained Russian troops with no equipment will be torn to pieces, and the people fighting in those units will run after the first shell lands.
About heavy equipment - Russia still has substantial reserves, and its possible that they'll use everything they have on the battlefield. It's a stupid and suicidal tactic, but Putin has no way out now: either he wins, or he goes.
On paper, certainly. But they also had 2,000,000 winter uniforms on the books!
Annetts key
Established Member
Whatever reserves Russia has, how many can actually be deployed (that is, actually are complete with no critical missing parts, actually work, and which still work when delivered to the battlefields), and how effective they are (which in part depends on the crew being properly trained), are all relevant questions.
The “fact” (if indeed it’s true) that Russia has been receiving tanks and other equipment being supplied by Belarus tells a story all on it’s own. Plus the number of T-62 tanks that Ukraine is capturing or destroying shows that these are being used on the front lines / battlefields and not only for use in occupied / rear areas.
Killingworth
Established Member
There is lot of wishful thinking on this topic.
We are caught up in a civil war in the former Soviet Union and at a globally more serious level than that when Yugoslavia broke up. Ordinary citizens who'd previously got along together are being killed with no peaceful end in sight, only devasted countrside to be restored and international economies rebuilt.
The Russian forces have been badly deployed but still hold the greater part of the territory they have claimed.
Russia has effectively held large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk plus the Crimean peninsular since 2014. They are determined to hold it.
Russia has demonstrated ability to take out Ukrainian energy infrastructure almost at will making it increasingly difficult for industrial and domestic users.
This conflict began because many inhabitants of Luhansk, Crimea and Donetsk were genuinely unhappy with their government in Kyiv. A significant number took up arms. It's not clear that a restoration of the pre 2014 borders would solve the underlying problems (Russia retained control of miltary areas in Crimea before 2014).
The longer this goes on the more other powers look to take advantage elsewhere as our attention and resources are diverted. Wars are a lot harder to stop than to start. They tend to escalate.
What's the answer? With so much devastation and so many having fled it's not realistic to expect all to want to return, whether to Ukraine or their former homes. Somewhere, sometime there has to be compromise. That will then bring decades of other issues. In the meantime more misery.
Putin is a snake and will bring in China if given a chance. And China will take Taiwan given half a chance, illogical though that seems to us. We live in very dangerous times when we desperately need strong and intelligent western leadership. Oh dear!
We are caught up in a civil war in the former Soviet Union and at a globally more serious level than that when Yugoslavia broke up. Ordinary citizens who'd previously got along together are being killed with no peaceful end in sight, only devasted countrside to be restored and international economies rebuilt.
The Russian forces have been badly deployed but still hold the greater part of the territory they have claimed.
Russia has effectively held large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk plus the Crimean peninsular since 2014. They are determined to hold it.
Russia has demonstrated ability to take out Ukrainian energy infrastructure almost at will making it increasingly difficult for industrial and domestic users.
This conflict began because many inhabitants of Luhansk, Crimea and Donetsk were genuinely unhappy with their government in Kyiv. A significant number took up arms. It's not clear that a restoration of the pre 2014 borders would solve the underlying problems (Russia retained control of miltary areas in Crimea before 2014).
The longer this goes on the more other powers look to take advantage elsewhere as our attention and resources are diverted. Wars are a lot harder to stop than to start. They tend to escalate.
What's the answer? With so much devastation and so many having fled it's not realistic to expect all to want to return, whether to Ukraine or their former homes. Somewhere, sometime there has to be compromise. That will then bring decades of other issues. In the meantime more misery.
Putin is a snake and will bring in China if given a chance. And China will take Taiwan given half a chance, illogical though that seems to us. We live in very dangerous times when we desperately need strong and intelligent western leadership. Oh dear!
I agree that Putin would love for China to get involved, but what is in it for China? Yes, they could take Taiwan and deal with the massive political fallout from that, or they could simply stay uninvolved in the Ukraine conflict, wait for Russia to descend into chaos after they lose and then potentially recover some or all of the 200,000 square miles of territory it lost to Russia in the 1850s.
Given the choice between a war with a near full-strength USA over Taiwan or a seriously-depleted Russia over a huge amount of potentially mineral-rich land I know which I would choose.
Annetts key
Established Member
I’ve not looked in detail at the military possibilities with regards to China trying to invade Taiwan. But have heard people who know more than me comment that China would currently have great difficulty in trying to Taiwan by force.
The Taiwanese have known about the threat for many, many years, so are presumably well prepared.
The sea that separates mainland China from Taiwan is over 79 miles wide.
An invasion by China would require hundreds of ships to transport the Chinese Army and all the equipment and supplies that they would need.
While at sea, these ships would be vulnerable to attack.
You don’t think the Taiwanese military are just going to watch do you?
Then the Chinese have to simultaneously gain bridgeheads on the island.
There are not many beaches suitable for amphibious landings and the Taiwanese will vigorously defend these as well as all the ports.
If the Chinese forces do manage to form bridgeheads, they then have to fight their way across the island. Which would be a difficult endeavour due to the geography and the sprawling urban areas.
It is however possible that China may try to take some of the smaller islands. But of course, any attack will alert both the government of Taiwan and the U.S.A. and other allies.
The Taiwanese have known about the threat for many, many years, so are presumably well prepared.
The sea that separates mainland China from Taiwan is over 79 miles wide.
An invasion by China would require hundreds of ships to transport the Chinese Army and all the equipment and supplies that they would need.
While at sea, these ships would be vulnerable to attack.
You don’t think the Taiwanese military are just going to watch do you?
Then the Chinese have to simultaneously gain bridgeheads on the island.
There are not many beaches suitable for amphibious landings and the Taiwanese will vigorously defend these as well as all the ports.
If the Chinese forces do manage to form bridgeheads, they then have to fight their way across the island. Which would be a difficult endeavour due to the geography and the sprawling urban areas.
It is however possible that China may try to take some of the smaller islands. But of course, any attack will alert both the government of Taiwan and the U.S.A. and other allies.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Plus China's armed forces are largely untested in combat, thats true for Taiwan too of course but matters less when you are the defender.
gingerheid
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If you accept the Russian view of history then yes, this is what happened. Unhappy farmers and miners took up their arms... tanks that they... uhm... bought at the local second hand tank dealers using their hard earned savings, and ... err... a few advanced anti Malaysian jet systems that just happened to be on eBay?
I would caution against accepting the Russian view of history, mainly because it's demonstrably false.
Exactly. It's like France invading SE England because some people were unhappy with Brexit!
Someone will be along soon to describe their proposal to modify 442's as a defence weapon.
To be honest, and having seen the price of wine in French Hypermarkets, I’d welcome that !
Annetts key
Established Member
So the question is, can I mount a 155mm artillery gun on one? And if so, could you please give the link for the eBay listings
You could, but it would probably be foul of the loading gauge.So the question is, can I mount a 155mm artillery gun on one? And if so, could you please give the link for the eBay listings
And no doubt set fire to the plastic.
Strathclyder
Established Member
Fixed that for you.
We might finally get some power stations built, also.