Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[al78]

I think the issues with railway - especially the dreadful WCML ...

I have another family visit for a long weekend later this month and decided to book advance tickets for Horsham -> London Victoria and London Euston to Manchester Pic. It was only a little more expensive than the tank of fuel required to drive the return journey but from my recollection of doing that journey by train years ago, it was at least somewhat relaxing most of the time whereas I find driving Horsham to Salford is a slog even with completely free flowing traffic conditions I had on Christmas Eve and New Years Day. I live in hope that my rail journey won't turn into an even bigger slog, and I hope they don't now decide to strike on the days I am travelling.

traffic lights and junctions seems purposely poorly designed with badly timed lights ...

Ah, you've experienced the joy of driving through Horsham.

The town which seems shy to adopt filter lanes at junctions, so when you approach the green light which turns amber -> red when you are 50 meters from it, you have to wait for traffic on every other arm of the junction before the light goes green again, which results in a good minute on red and sub-10 seconds on green in the worst cases, coupled with junctions so close together that traffic backing up at one junction blocks traffic trying to get through the neighbouring junction (house building and local population increases contributing to this). The net result of this for me is if I want to drive to my allotment on the other side of town and back, I have to go through ten sets of traffic lights of which typically eight of them will be on red and at least half of those I will be waiting the full red phase. If I'm unlucky I will get the sole visible pedestrian in the area wanting to use one or more of the pelican crossings when I am 100 meters away which could add another two red lights to the journey.

 

[sheff1]

I’ve never known anybody want to open a window due to infection in Winter except during the height of the pandemic when the odd passenger had a rant on Twitter. Was awful on buses with that freezing cold blast but we understood back then it had to be done.

No, it didn't have to be done. If I had been allowed to drive I would probably have bought a car then.
With the ever worsening train situation over the last year I would definitely have been driving for most journeys by now if I was able to.

 

[The Ham]

I have another family visit for a long weekend later this month and decided to book advance tickets for Horsham -> London Victoria and London Euston to Manchester Pic. It was only a little more expensive than the tank of fuel required to drive the return journey but from my recollection of doing that journey by train years ago, it was at least somewhat relaxing most of the time whereas I find driving Horsham to Salford is a slog even with completely free flowing traffic conditions I had on Christmas Eve and New Years Day. I live in hope that my rail journey won't turn into an even bigger slog, and I hope they don't now decide to strike on the days I am travelling.


Ah, you've experienced the joy of driving through Horsham.

The town which seems shy to adopt filter lanes at junctions, so when you approach the green light which turns amber -> red when you are 50 meters from it, you have to wait for traffic on every other arm of the junction before the light goes green again, which results in a good minute on red and sub-10 seconds on green in the worst cases, coupled with junctions so close together that traffic backing up at one junction blocks traffic trying to get through the neighbouring junction (house building and local population increases contributing to this). The net result of this for me is if I want to drive to my allotment on the other side of town and back, I have to go through ten sets of traffic lights of which typically eight of them will be on red and at least half of those I will be waiting the full red phase. If I'm unlucky I will get the sole visible pedestrian in the area wanting to use one or more of the pelican crossings when I am 100 meters away which could add another two red lights to the journey.

Traffic light cycle times are typically 60 to 90 seconds. For 90 seconds; if there's 4 phases that's an average of 22.5 seconds. However within that 22.5 second you need to allow 5 seconds for intergreen, leaving an average green time of 17.5 seconds and 72.5 seconds of waiting.

Within an urban setting the lights should be linked so that once you pass through one green and keep to a given speed you should then pass through all the lights you then get to.

 

[mikeb42]

In collating 2022 records while clearing my desk over the festive lull, I noted roughly 70 London & 20 Birmingham trips, mostly starting from Bristol area.

Not so many years ago that'd have meant near enough 70+20 rail journeys - about 20,000 miles and £5-7k of revenue at today's prices.

Birmingham by rail was abandoned years ago. This flow is Cross Country or nothing and that means staggeringly expensive fares for relatively infrequent services on crowded, nasty trains. £64 return off-peak for an 85 mile journey? Get lost!

The Londons should be an obvious candidate for 100% rail. However, by the time the following had been eliminated across 2022:

i) Strike or other industrial action making it impossible or risking disruption and hassle
ii) Train cancellations, particularly due to staff shortages along with the usual litany of other excuses
iii) Good old fashioned delays messing the itinerary up
iv) Engineering work causing long-winded diversions on the return legs at night
v) Major disruption due to points failures, trespassers or wires down - the latter happening repeatedly recently
vi) Continual short forming. I now check RTT and JourneyCheck just prior to every journey (not 100% reliable I know, but it's what there is) and any sign of a 5 coach feeble excuse for half a train on either leg - forget it. No way are we paying what GWR are asking only to be presented with one of these aberrations.

This only left 37 of 70 Londons being done by train.

This sort of thing must be being repeated in different forms across the board. It's only because a last second decision can be made to drive to the station if all looks ok instead of straight onto the motorway that we're still trying to use the train where possible - largely out of a sense of obligation on environmental grounds. Driving + tube is no slower end-to-end, costs the same or less when all hidden costs are accounted for and is now much more reliable.

I don't envy anyone who has to actually rely on the railway these days rather than being able to treat it as a last minute discretionary purchase with a car as routine backup.

 

[The Ham]

In collating 2022 records while clearing my desk over the festive lull, I noted roughly 70 London & 20 Birmingham trips, mostly starting from Bristol area.

Not so many years ago that'd have meant near enough 70+20 rail journeys - about 20,000 miles and £5-7k of revenue at today's prices.

Birmingham by rail was abandoned years ago. This flow is Cross Country or nothing and that means staggeringly expensive fares for relatively infrequent services on crowded, nasty trains. £64 return off-peak for an 85 mile journey? Get lost!

The Londons should be an obvious candidate for 100% rail. However, by the time the following had been eliminated across 2022:

i) Strike or other industrial action making it impossible or risking disruption and hassle
ii) Train cancellations, particularly due to staff shortages along with the usual litany of other excuses
iii) Good old fashioned delays messing the itinerary up
iv) Engineering work causing long-winded diversions on the return legs at night
v) Major disruption due to points failures, trespassers or wires down - the latter happening repeatedly recently
vi) Continual short forming. I now check RTT and JourneyCheck just prior to every journey (not 100% reliable I know, but it's what there is) and any sign of a 5 coach feeble excuse for half a train on either leg - forget it. No way are we paying what GWR are asking only to be presented with one of these aberrations.

This only left 37 of 70 Londons being done by train.

This sort of thing must be being repeated in different forms across the board. It's only because a last second decision can be made to drive to the station if all looks ok instead of straight onto the motorway that we're still trying to use the train where possible - largely out of a sense of obligation on environmental grounds. Driving + tube is no slower end-to-end, costs the same or less when all hidden costs are accounted for and is now much more reliable.

I don't envy anyone who has to actually rely on the railway these days rather than being able to treat it as a last minute discretionary purchase with a car as routine backup.

And even though this is likely to have been repeated (a lot), rail passenger numbers are still growing.

If the government weren't so beset on reducing costs there's likely to be a lot more people using the railways and so likely reducing the amount of support provided to the railways (i.e. the very thing that they wish to happen).

 

[Edsmith]

Why do people keep saying this? Large, busy and expensive car parks at stations which are regularly well populated with cars proves otherwise.

If you buy a car, you're not required to only travel by car. You can still go by train, bus, fly, cycle, walk, whatever. Most cyclists are car owners as well. I'd venture that most people using trains have a car on the drive (or in the car park) too.

Those who don't have a car now and are seeking to buy one will drive somewhere like London or Manchester once, then they'll drive to the station instead.

People keep saying that because it's true and many of these car parks aren't as well used as they were in the past. I'd rather travel by train but they just can't be relied upon, car hire companies must be loving it.

 

[Snow1964]

Bus cancellations do vary depending on where you live and places like London don't have many if any bus cancellations.

London produces quarterly bus statistics, lastest overall shows 3.1% for non arrival of low frequency routes (below 5 per hour). Overall 97.7% ran (2.7% didn’t run)

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/2022-23-q1-network-performance-summary.pdf

 

[mike57]

There is no doubt the AutoTrader have an axe to grind on this, and like all journalism its coloured by the views of those writing and the people behind them paying their wages.

There probably is an increase in demand, but I doubt that much of it is due to the current rail problems. A lot of people held off from changing their vehicle during covid for multiple reasons, and so there is undoubtably a bit of a backlog.

This doesn't detract from the fact the situation with regard to the railways isn't serious, industrial unrest, failing TOCs, and a disinterested and weak government. I personally don't believe that line closures will happen, I think that is still politically unacceptable, but service cut backs and a cutting back (off?) of investment will happen.

You cannot rely on railways at the moment over a large part of the country, and people will make alternative arrangements, bus, car, fly, etc. and this will increase demand for cars but bearing in mind the proportion of rail journeys to other modes of transport this increase will be very small, and masked by other larger impacts from other events.

 

[Chucky]

The railways are only unreliable because of the strikes, the staff shortages and the cuts since the pandemic. All of these things are political choices made by our current government and their previous incarnations since Johnson and Shaps. Things will get better sooner or later when the wind changes.

I own a car but still choose to travel by rail where feasible. I live two miles from the station but choose to leave my car and walk rather than drive there. If I've got luggage I take a taxi to the station which is still cheaper than parking. In my experience trains are busier than ever - especially at weekends. I'd much rather be on a train than sitting in a traffic jam (you're not stuck in traffic, you are traffic!), paying a fortune to pollute the environment, and being at the mercy of wreckless drivers and other sundry maniacs on the roads.

There is a local journey I make fairly often that is too far to walk (unless I've got all day) and doesn't have a direct train service. There is a bus, but it's prohibitively expensive for such a short journey (the bus is good value for longer trips). For this journey I usually drive and for trips to places without public transport options. Otherwise for me it's always the train. The fact I own a car doesn't mean I'm beholden to it. I can't stand it really - it's just a black hole to throw money down but it is a convenience.

If more people are buying cars, as the report suggests, we will only see conditions on the roads worsen which will make the train more attractive. Once this unpleasant, selfish and destructive government is booted out (which they unceremoniously will be at some point in the next year or two) we will start to see improvements. The only certainty in life is change. I'm not saying that because I'm an ardent Labour fan, or that I have faith in Keir Starmer as the saviour of the railways, I'm saying it because this government is probably the worst for railways since the days of Beeching. Sadly I fear they will implement (or have a good go at implementing) further significant cuts before they go, namely the closure of all ticket offices, national DOO and dangerous maintenance regime cuts such as those that led to Hatfield and Potters Bar. We'll see. But what we can be certain of is that it won't all be doom and gloom forever. The trains will one day improve, but until they do, the roads will only get more congested and dangerous.

 

[XIX7007177]

The 12p fuel duty rise will get people off the roads.

 

[dk1]

The 12p fuel duty rise will get people off the roads.

I wonder if he will have the balls to do it in a couple of months?

 

[furnessvale]

At least with the train if it's not coming you usually know, where as with the bus it just doesn't turn up. Had that happen to me on more than one occasion.

Don't know if it is a national thing, but the buses in my area (High Peak) are all fitted with GPS which reports the bus position to bus tracker. In turn, you can interrogate this by computer or mobile phone to get a map showing where the bus is. Very handy this weather to sit in the pub watching a late bus getting closer rather than standing on the A6.

ps Although I am a retired rail worker with free travel, travelling by train for me is now a distress "purchase", so God only knows what people who actually have to part with money think!

 

[XIX7007177]

I wonder if he will have the balls to do it in a couple of months?

Probably, they seem to love raising tax and hitting the working class as much as possible.

Rising fuel costs increase inflation too.

 

[dk1]

Probably, they seem to love raising tax and hitting the working class as much as possible.

Rising fuel costs increase inflation too.

I suppose they’ve got nothing to lose now. Might as well continue with the self destruction.

 

[furnessvale]

Probably, they seem to love raising tax and hitting the working class as much as possible.

Rising fuel costs increase inflation too.

Interesting that you see increased road fuel taxation as an attack on the "working class".

It does put the position of rail passenger transport in the UK into perspective.

 

[Clip]

Every passenger voluntarily making this lifestyle change won't be coming back to the railways, possibly ever. What a disappointment.

This seems a bit of hyperbole - especially seeing as new car sales dropped last year

2022 sales figures: car market slumps to worst performance for three decades

Detailed analysis of the UK new-car market in 2022: what sold, what didn't and full breakdown by brand

www.carmagazine.co.uk

and used car sales from the figures i can find dropped by 12% in Q3 of last year.

Yes the railways are a bit poor at the moment but thats due to many factors.

As for bus apps, being on the fylde the BP transport app is great and ive recently found that the stagecoach app is equally as good for those journeys i cant take on BP.

 

[Taunton]

The past month has shown the most extraordinary combination of non-operation reasons that have impacted us directly, one after the other:

- Strike by union A
- Engineering works complete shutdown
- We don't work Boxing Day anyway
- Strike by union B

etc

Probably the worst, to the general traveller, was the scene when I went (driving) to pick someone up at London Stansted Airport on Boxing Day. Crowds arriving from Europe, where of course the rail service was in full operation, every single flight and retail operation there in full swing - but to find no trains into London. Queue of possibly 1,000 people for the coach. Apparently no effort had been made to even supply rail replacement coaches.

The "information" on what was running, or not, was just concealed behind lengthy 'all services may be subject to delay or cancellation' standard texts, which is no value to anybody. Apart from the wonderful new Elizabeth Line, which had no information shown about no trains to the GE line AT ALL. They just weren't there.

 

[Malaxa]

The 12p fuel duty rise will get people off the roads.

£2 a litre petrol didn't get people off the roads. They would rather starve than not be able to drive.

 

[dk1]

Apparently no effort had been made to even supply rail replacement coaches.

Rail Replacement is not offered on strike days.

£2 a litre petrol didn't get people off the roads. They would rather starve than not be able to drive.

I know many people who drove a lot less & used public transport a bit more. Even I who use my car as a last resort even tried to use it less than I do & that’s going some.

 

[Donny_m]

Friend of mine works for a company with 189,000 employees one of the UK’s biggest tech employers, and they put out a memo last year stating that employees aren’t to take the train unless it’s an emergency as it has become so unreliable it was costing them millions.

They have offered incentives to buy cars and will cover either driving lessons or Ubers for people who don’t drive. Apparently it one team manager doesn’t turn up because of the train it can impact the days productivity to 6 figures.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think what a lot of people are underestimating is the impact this kind of research will have on future government policy. If Joe Public indicates that it is starting to ditch public transport in favour of cars, then they will increasingly lean towards investing into the favoured modes. Electric cars will (in their eyes at least) "solve" the environmental issue of private versus public transport, and the emergence of self-driving cars will in theory at least reduce congestion. A bit of a perfect storm is therefore brewing, whereby a dispute with the government over pay and T&Cs drives passengers away, leading to shifting government policies, resulting in a push to reduce the cost of pay and T&Cs in public transport because funds are needed to improve road infrastructure.

And before anyone jumps down my throat, I don't agree with any such shift. But it could happen, in fact given the massive financial problems ongoing is rapidly becoming more likely. The railways in particular are being seen as more & more of a burden on public finances, and Ministers now & in the future are going to be facing tough decisions. But if the railways continue to be a growing problem, and the public continue to walk away from them, then they will risk more cuts. They won't disappear overnight, but there could be a lot of trimming in capacity in the future, and less capacity means less requirement for staffing. And I have seen such moves take place before in the public sector, from the inside. So it can happen.

 

[Donny_m]

Haven’t used the train now since 2019. It would be the last method I check behind a bus coach ride share scooter walk or a taxi. Despite being in a comfortable wage bracket I can’t justify the prices they want these days and the unreliability was the final nail in the coffin.

 

[yorksrob]

I am reminded a bit of the 1950's, when released from the pressures of war, passengers flocked to the railway, going on holiday and trips to the seaside.

I've seen it written that the crowded uncomfortable conditions - old trains without loos etc, helped to drive the car revolution in the 60's

Our current government seems to be trying to recreate these conditions without even an equivalent to the post war railway boom to drive the crowding.

 

[Bungle73]

Don't know if it is a national thing, but the buses in my area (High Peak) are all fitted with GPS which reports the bus position to bus tracker. In turn, you can interrogate this by computer or mobile phone to get a map showing where the bus is. Very handy this weather to sit in the pub watching a late bus getting closer rather than standing on the A6.

ps Although I am a retired rail worker with free travel, travelling by train for me is now a distress "purchase", so God only knows what people who actually have to part with money think!

Last time I tried the Arriva app (a few years ago) it was as much use as a chocolate teapot. I watched a bus drive by on the opposite side of the road that, according to the app, wasn't, there.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Friend of mine works for a company with 189,000 employees one of the UK’s biggest tech employers, and they put out a memo last year stating that employees aren’t to take the train unless it’s an emergency as it has become so unreliable it was costing them millions.

They have offered incentives to buy cars and will cover either driving lessons or Ubers for people who don’t drive. Apparently it one team manager doesn’t turn up because of the train it can impact the days productivity to 6 figures.

Interesting thought process.

Considering the relative safety of road Vs rail and the number of employees I would say that was a gamble considering the costs of serious RTCs on work time to a company. This is only temporary and thinks will come back.

 

[Mat17]

I'd suggest that more, who are already buying cars, are citing poor public transport as the reason - quite probably rarely using public transport.

For myself this wasn't the case. I stuck with public transport for 20 years. I could drive but I hated it. I wanted to support the buses.

However over the past twenty years the once good bus service of 4 buses per hour which took 40-45 minutes end to end has deteriorated into an hourly service (when it runs) which takes over an hour from end to end. The other bus services we had to other towns (which were tendered) have all been reduced from hourly, to exactly one bus there in the morning and one bus back in the evening.

The bus companies have left us high and dry, the nearest train station that I used was reached by using one of those withdrawn tendered services. So the knock on effect was that I also stopped using the train because the nearest station been four miles away is too far to walk to.

So finally in frustration, I've given up and bought a car. Once the car was bought and insured, it's proved cheaper to run and far more convenient.

I won't be using the buses again.

 

[Starmill]

Rail Replacement is not offered on strike days.

It depends. If the strike is third party they usually do offer as much rail replacement as they can. For example TfW have been running it all morning and evening between Radyr and Cardiff Central.

 

[Julia]

Counterpoint: new car sales at 30 year low https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64165689

 

[ChrisC]

L

The 12p fuel duty rise will get people off the roads.

Petrol now in many parts of the country has fallen back to just under £1.50 a litre. An increase of 12p will take it up to around £1.60 which is far less than it was 6 months ago.

 

[dk1]

It depends. If the strike is third party they usually do offer as much rail replacement as they can. For example TfW have been running it all morning and evening between Radyr and Cardiff Central.

That’s as rare as hens teeth in most of the UK. Nothing available on strike days anywhere here.