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Brexit matters

nlogax

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While I’m not really a fan of Michael O’Leary I think (or at least hope) he’ll be proven right here.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business...igarettes-one-of-brexits-few-benefits-oleary/

[O’Leary] believes that in 10-15 years the UK will do a deal with the EU similar to those done by Norway or Switzerland.

“I think they will pay into a European budget. I think they will have no choice. The single market is too attractive to the UK to be excluded from,” Mr O’Leary said.

He said that everything that Brexiteers promised UK voters “the sunny uplands and ability to do trade deals everywhere were shown to be another tissue of lies”.

However, he said that Brexit should prompt the EU to improve the single market and make regulations more efficient.
 
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XAM2175

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Anyhow back to the original message; I'm now beginning to wonder if the EU will drop the immigration requirements for us UK's on the grounds that it would clog up their airports, Eurostar and Calais etc and they would be far better concentrating on immigration checks from the rest of the world ...
"Scrutiny of British arrivals" and "scrutiny of other (non-British) third-country arrivals" are not mutually exclusive.
 

Howardh

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"Scrutiny of British arrivals" and "scrutiny of other (non-British) third-country arrivals" are not mutually exclusive.
How can you scrutiny either when there's no border or officials? Ie Dublin (EU) > Belfast (UK) and Belfast > Liverpool?
 

SteveP29

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The point is that, if the scheme can be made to work (and I get that there are still practical difficulties about that and I guess questions about how expensive the scheme is), it would take away a lot of the incentive for people to get themselves smuggled from France into the UK, and will therefore go some way to solving the problem of boats crossing the Channel. In particular, if you are an economic migrant pretending to be an asylum seeker in order to get into the UK, then you are rapidly going to lose interest if you learn that, even if you are successful, your destination will be Rwanda! It's arguably a bit more complicated if you are a genuine asylum seeker, but it's possible that you'll more seriously consider doing the right thing and applying for asylum in the safe country you've already reached (France) rather than risking your life on a trip that would effectively be from France to Rwanda. If Rwanda sends other people here in return, that's fine because it doesn't change that you've removed much of the incentive for people to pay traffickers to put them in dangerous boats to cross the Channel.
There is no legal requirement anywhere that states you have to claim asylum in the first 'safe' country you enter.

Possibly more worrying is the comment that, ‘People are starting to drop the UK as a gateway to a European tour‘. Together with a recent item in the same paper that mentioned that Europeans are being put off from visiting due to the requirement to have a passport (as opposed to an ID Card), this is not a situation that a country that regards heritage and tourism as important wants to be in.
I guess we'll not now be requiring that third runway at Heathrow then?
 

AlterEgo

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I have had my documents checked on arrival at Liverpool. Just the once though.
I have also been met once at Belfast. I think there are some limited spot checks but it was the PSNI checking, not Border Force, and I think they were looking for someone specific as they were stopping only men.
 

najaB

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I have also been met once at Belfast. I think there are some limited spot checks but it was the PSNI checking, not Border Force, and I think they were looking for someone specific as they were stopping only men.
In my case it was everyone, and while I can't say with 100% confidence that it was Border Force, they weren't in police uniform. I also had my documents checked when travelling Fishguard to Rosslare.
 

Garmoran

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And of course there's the newly discovered scam where foreign companies are collecting the VAT on our orders (so customs doesn't need to do it) but never passing it on to HMRC. Great profit for the sellers and a major loss to us, the taxpayer.
I haven't come across this scam. So far it has worked in reverse for me: suppliers in EU countries have deducted the VAT from my orders and HMRC have ignored the goods

...we lived in an alternate universe where Corbyn had won in 2019 and brought about a second Bolshevik Revolution and bands of nouveau-Cheka were now roaming the streets purging counter revolutionaries (I think that's what the Daily Mail said would happen? :p) should we only be able to flee to Ireland, France and Belgium? They're all the closest safe countries.
For some of us Ireland, Norway, Faeroes and Iceland are closer. Not recommended by rubber boat, though
 
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zero

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In my case it was everyone, and while I can't say with 100% confidence that it was Border Force, they weren't in police uniform. I also had my documents checked when travelling Fishguard to Rosslare.

I was checked on a domestic ferry Scotland to NI by Police Scotland. Only non-white people were checked.
 

jon0844

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I haven't come across this scam. So far it has worked in reverse for me: suppliers in EU countries have deducted the VAT from my orders and HMRC have ignored the goods

How would you know? I've ordered various bits (phone cases etc) from AliExpress and they charge me the VAT.

How do I know they paid HMRC?
 

XAM2175

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How can you scrutiny either when there's no border or officials? Ie Dublin (EU) > Belfast (UK) and Belfast > Liverpool?
You weren't talking about the Ireland - UK border in the post that I quoted.

Or, at least, that's the impression that I got from the whole "Eurostar" and "Calais" and "Dover" bit.
 

Revilo

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While I’m not really a fan of Michael O’Leary I think (or at least hope) he’ll be proven right here.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business...igarettes-one-of-brexits-few-benefits-oleary/
What O’Leary forgets is that people’s attitudes change with age. The generation of people that voted for Brexit in 2016 were young in the 1970s when they and Britain voted to stay in the EC. They changed their minds about Europe when the reality failed to live up to the promise, and their priorities changed too. Just because young people tend to be more pro-EU now, doesn’t mean that they always will be.

Over time, being outside the EU (assuming it survives) will be status quo, in the same way as those countries that left other empires didn’t seek to rejoin them. At the moment, Brexit is the wipping boy for every conceivable problem, or at least made so by those still upset that they lost the referendum.
 

jon0844

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Assuming the EU survives?

Do you really believe there's any threat to the EU?
 

ainsworth74

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Do you really believe there's any threat to the EU?
Dunno what you mean, it's clearly going to collapse any day now. Any day now there will be loads of other countries which will trigger Article 50 themselves. Any day now. Any time now.
 

nlogax

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They changed their minds about Europe when the reality failed to live up to the promise, and their priorities changed too. Just because young people tend to be more pro-EU now, doesn’t mean that they always will be.
What O'Leary is expecting to happen is that the critical mass of people who harbour certain opinions about Britain and its place in Europe and the wider world will die off. Color me entirely unconvinced that the generations of remain voters are going to have the same change of heart you're expecting of them.
 

jon0844

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While it is claimed people become more right wing and insular as they get older, nobody is looking at our current situation and thinking 'hmm, yeah, it's going swimmingly'.

We've just demonstrated what happens if you leave a big club and expect to enjoy all the same privileges on your own.
 

E27007

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What O’Leary forgets is that people’s attitudes change with age. The generation of people that voted for Brexit in 2016 were young in the 1970s when they and Britain voted to stay in the EC. They changed their minds about Europe when the reality failed to live up to the promise, and their priorities changed too. Just because young people tend to be more pro-EU now, doesn’t mean that they always will be.

Over time, being outside the EU (assuming it survives) will be status quo, in the same way as those countries that left other empires didn’t seek to rejoin them. At the moment, Brexit is the wipping boy for every conceivable problem, or at least made so by those still upset that they lost the referendum.
If O'Leary and his prediction beear fruit, a UK-EU deal is proposed in 10 to 15 years time, what will be the position of the EU? How will the EU change over the next decade or two? Will freedom of movement be so important, will the EU Super-State have formed with greater overall power and control of member states? Will the EU Parliament become more or less accountable to the EU electorate?
 

edwin_m

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If O'Leary and his prediction beear fruit, a UK-EU deal is proposed in 10 to 15 years time, what will be the position of the EU? How will the EU change over the next decade or two? Will freedom of movement be so important, will the EU Super-State have formed with greater overall power and control of member states? Will the EU Parliament become more or less accountable to the EU electorate?
Having decided to leave, the UK has no influence over what it might look like by then. I actually hope there will be more of a "two-speed Europe" where those that want closer political union can get on with it, and the others can just participate in the economic aspects.
 

E27007

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Having decided to leave, the UK has no influence over what it might look like by then. I actually hope there will be more of a "two-speed Europe" where those that want closer political union can get on with it, and the others can just participate in the economic aspects.
The loss of the UK was described by as a failure of the Eu by no less than Guy Verhofstadt, agreed we are not able to influence the future shape of the Eu from outside, my question is about the Eu , having seen a key member depart, what long-term constitutional reforms will we see within the Eu as a consequence of our departure?
 
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Howardh

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If countries such as Spain, Greece and Portugal need our holidaymakers for the income we bring, and we stop going in such large numbers due to all the bureaucracy Brexit has brought, they might well put pressure on the EU to make it simpler for Brits to travel there.

Maybe a situation where tourists can stay for as long as they like, visa and waiver free, but anyone permanently residing or workers need a full on visa might be an eventually, and the UK recriprocate.

I can't see how that would nullify the result of the referendum, we weren't promised tougher travel but that's what we're getting.

Alternatively if nothing is done, the very people who voted Brexit will be put out enough to change their minds. So if you voted Brexit, it's in your interest to soften Brexit re trade, travel etc or lose it.
 

davetheguard

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Maybe a situation where tourists can stay for as long as they like, visa and waiver free,

We had that before Brexit. It was one of the many advantages of being in the EU.

But we voted collectively to leave the EU club, and some say we voted to end freedom of movement. That included ending OUR freedom of movement. People on the continent have lost freedom of movement to an island; we have lost freedom of movement to an entire continent.

We've nobody to blame but ourselves for the present mess, although we shouldn't forget all the poor advice from the right wing politicians who told all sort of porkies about the consequncies of that vote. "No downsides, only significant upsides etc, etc,"
 

najaB

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So if you voted Brexit, it's in your interest to soften Brexit re trade, travel etc or lose it.
Keep in mind that a not-insignificant number of those people who voted in favour of Brexit believed it when they were told "...only a madman would actually leave the Single Market."
 

adrock1976

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We had that before Brexit. It was one of the many advantages of being in the EU.

But we voted collectively to leave the EU club, and some say we voted to end freedom of movement. That included ending OUR freedom of movement. People on the continent have lost freedom of movement to an island; we have lost freedom of movement to an entire continent.

We've nobody to blame but ourselves for the present mess, although we shouldn't forget all the poor advice from the right wing politicians who told all sort of porkies about the consequncies of that vote. "No downsides, only significant upsides etc, etc,"

Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Gibraltar all voted to remain.

It could be said that they have been dragged out of the EU by a government that they did not vote for.
 

AlterEgo

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Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Gibraltar all voted to remain.

It could be said that they have been dragged out of the EU by a government that they did not vote for.
I’m sure if it was the other way around and Remain won, you’d think it was a bit silly to say “England and Wales are being kept in the EU against their will”.
 

ainsworth74

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I’m sure if it was the other way around and Remain won, you’d think it was a bit silly to say “England and Wales are being kept in the EU against their will”.
Quite. Lots of people voted remain. I'm one of them and I live in England. My vote was just as consequential as those in Scotland or Northern Ireland yet seems like some people would prefer to pretend that everyone in England was a nasty leave voter and everyone in Scotland, NI or Gibraltar were virtuous remain voters (ignoring all the people vote leave in those places at the same time!).
 

E27007

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Assuming the EU survives?

Do you really believe there's any threat to the EU?
There are threats, a number of member states with tension within the Eu, and not much sign of those tensions being quelled, member states Poland Hungary Holland, and the rise of the far-right in France, what if Germany becomes tired of funding the project?
 

jon0844

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The EU has never been perfect, but most of the adults in the room work through things. The issues in the east, which Putin is of course very much encouraging and arguably manipulating, is a problem for sure - but I think the EU, US, UN, NATO and even the UK know about that particular game.

Why would Germany get tired? Or France? Or Sweden? Or .. insert any of the other members.

The UK is like a jilted lover unable to accept that the EU has moved on and is doing just fine.
 

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