Look at it from the Government's perspective. The railway is soaking up an unsustainable (in its view) amount of state aid. One route to reducing this in real terms is to improve productivity. Essentially this can be achieved in four ways:
(1) More investment in technologies and infrastructure.
(2) Reducing costs by improving workforce flexibility i.e. changes to working conditions.
(3) Reducing costs in real terms either by below inflation pay awards or no pay awards at all.
(4) Cutbacks with associated redundancies.
The Government is pursuing, in the main, options 2 and 3.
Effectively the rail unions have chosen option 3, as they value the preservation of working conditions more highly than accepting pay awards with strings attached. However they are also nervous (no doubt with good reason) of going for prolonged strikes. Hence the odd 24 hour strike here and there that has little impact in the greater scheme of things. This course of action is highly unlikely to result in any improved offer from the Government, but the unions are in a bind - ceasing industrial action would make them look impotent, but they also don't have the stomach for a major escalation.
Hence the current impasse.
I doubt much, if anything, would change under a new government. The fundamental is the railway in its current form is widely viewed as costing too much and this has to be addressed.
Every time savings need to be made because of economical circumstances or whatever, front line staff seem to be targeted and the passenger experience gets worse.
Actually the biggest issues where reform could make savings in costs and increases in revenue would be:
- let experienced railway managers run the railway rather than ministers and civil servants who don't really understand the business
- structure of the industry, how much is it costing where different businesses interact where there is a contractual relationship that requires profit margins, solicitors etc? How much is the industry being ripped off by monopoly suppliers because only Network Rail approved suppliers can be used?
- excessive use of empty stock moves and staff taxis
- loss of revenue due to poor service, cancelled services, strike days etc with staff at low morale is more than it would have cost to give the staff a pay rise in line with inflation. They haven't had a pay rise in 4 years so in real terms a huge pay cut at a time when the cost of living has gone through the roof.
- has the service delivered in terms of timetables, ticketing, capacity etc adapted to changed demands post covid?
The government has been talking about reform for a few years now, we are supposed to have Great British Railways, new ticket structures and more by now, where are they?