Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[BRX]

Do you know how the FT is viewed? The FT no longer deals in data.

Give us some data rather than anecdote to support your own position, then.

 

[snowball]

Aren't the works to dual the remainder of the A66 west of the A1 already approved and in progress though ?

The Planning Inspectorate sent its report to the Transport Secretary in August and he has till November to decide.

However he has the right to extend this period, which in respect of the A1 in Northumberland he has already done several times, apparently on the excuse of an interaction with the recommendations of the Union Connectivity Review, to which the government had not yet published its reply. Presumably he will stop doing so in view of yesterday's announcement.

 

[RichW1]

Give us some data rather than anecdote to support your own position, then.

Message me privately then, this is way off topic regards the line itself, but what I have stated [has] cost HS2.

 

[QueensCurve]

Electrify the North Wales Mainline - I’ll believe it when I see it, would be interesting to know when and what trains will use this. There must be a minuscule business case for this given the TfW 197s that have just arrived.

Assuming electrification extends to Crewe and Warrington (making an ass out of U and me), it would provide fully electrified routes to Euston and Manchester with Leeds perhaps to follow. Also Liverpool if the Halton Curve is wired (which should be simple and cheap).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Assuming electrification extends to Crewe and Warrington (making an ass out of U and me), it would provide fully electrified routes to Euston and Manchester with Leeds perhaps to follow. Also Liverpool if the Halton Curve is wired (which should be simple and cheap).

It certainly has big advantages. An improved service to England would also make Wales more dependent on England, which would be a good aim for the Conservative and Unionist Party, which is its full name.

Presumably TfW would continue to run DMUs on the Holyhead to Cardiff service anyway (though they could consider bi-modes).

 

[Oxfordblues]

My newspaper this morning (the "i") reports that HS2 "north of Birmingham" has been scrapped. (One columnist even claims that HS2 goes through the "Cotswolds"!) But surely London-Manchester trains will still run via HS2, Delta Junction, Handsacre, Colwich, Hixon and Stoke, saving at least 30 minutes on the current journey-time. I'll have to wait for the next "Modern Railways" to find out the truth.

 

[QueensCurve]

HS2 not going to Manchester is a joke. Outside the bubble, I can tell you the urban economics data isn’t even close. Manchesters urbanised landmass is larger than Birmingham’s, and the population is considerably larger by several hundred thousand people (ignoring imaginary lines such as administrative lines). Further, the GDP of the Manchester area is considerably larger and the status of the companies is that much greater and global in nature. You can also feel it Manchester vs Birmingham. I love the UK. I wish all places to succeed, but the decades old (correct at the time) belief that Birmingham is the Second City just is no longer true on any metric. It is third and neither is it a close run thing (for now). Manchester is also pulling away. Anyway, a topic for another thread. HS2 not going to Manchester and with no addressing of the Castlefield viaduct/corridor is verging in negligence. Manchester is right to be angry. London civil servants can’t even put Crewe on a map in the right place!!

They couldnt' even get Manchester in the right place. It seems to have moved to Preston.

Government pledges to extend Metrolink line to Manchester Airport... where it already exists - Manchester Evening News

 

[DynamicSpirit]

But surely London-Manchester trains will still run via HS2, Delta Junction, Handsacre, Colwich, Hixon and Stoke, saving at least 30 minutes on the current journey-time. I'll have to wait for the next "Modern Railways" to find out the truth.

Correct

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I’m surprised you haven’t blamed the WEF yet

Or George Soros! No doubt he "does his own research".

Anyway getting back on topic. I'm not clear on the Welsh implications. Would North Wales electrifcation be paid for directly by the UK Government and would the Welsh Government receive a Barnett consequential for Network North and the Euston savings given that they are very clearly not "England and Wales" schemes?

 

[DarloRich]

That is not what I said. Your assertion is false. You ignored everything else that is going on. The S&P 500 is over-bloated on the same ideological hobby horses if you look at the number of companies that don’t make a profit there. It is in excess of 25% now!! Funded by ESG billionaires and others for years, we now have a financial problem… ESG again. Ideology over financially competent people.

I couldn’t give a damn about anyone’s colour. I car about competence. ESG and Diversity policies are costing vast sums of money for no return and costing investment as this has a whole host of bureaucracy that needs to be paid for and complied with. It is perverse, a bit like your reply that made unwarranted accusations. The sort of response one finds in the FT, BBC et al today when someone dares challenge the said bureaucracy I might add. I have been inside it so at least I have some experience. I know what goes on, what it costs and it has now cost HS2. It costs pensions. It costs companies. It’s fine to insult me; water off a duck’s back, but it doesn’t change the reality on the ground.

You have stated a view, without any evidence, and been challenged. It is clear that you don't like that. don't agree that ESG or D&I are the reasons HS2 has failed. To suggest they are is a bit outlandish imo.

Once again, diversity and inclusion is NOT the reason that HS2 costs have gone beyond a level acceptable to the government. The costs of that ( and it does have a cost as does every action associated with a project) are infinitesimal compared with the costs of extra tunnelling to keep MP's for leafy southern areas on side, political incompetence and waffle, legal costs associated with, you know, nocking down homes and businesses, scope changes, costs of getting the legislation through parliament etc etc.

 

[YorkRailFan]

It’s also difficult to see where and how it would be built to be effective.

Based on traffic apparently, which is the whole reason for the tram line.

 

[RichW1]

You have stated a view, without any evidence, and been challenged. It is clear that you don't like that. don't agree that ESG or D&I are the reasons HS2 has failed. To suggest they are is a bit outlandish imo.

Once again, diversity and inclusion is NOT the reason that HS2 costs have gone beyond a level acceptable to the government. The costs of that ( and it does have a cost as does every action associated with a project) are infinitesimal compared with the costs of extra tunnelling to keep MP's for leafy southern areas on side, political incompetence and waffle, legal costs associated with, you know, nocking down homes and businesses, scope changes, costs of getting the legislation through parliament etc etc.

D&I and ESG are the consultancy costs and embedded bureaucracy that has killed HS2. One does not mind being challenged, one does mind being lied about with ‘gotcha’ type replies due to not reading what a person has written.

It has been reported on [many times] regards why other countries built high speed rail cheaper, guess what… it is because their bureaucracy does not have said ESG and D&I embedded costing £billions. I repeat ‘Environmental’ alone costs an eye-watering sum. This alone is enough to sink a project before the nonsense around it with route delay and dithering et al. So you may not agree, but that is what the research shows. France doesn’t engage in this. Japan doesn’t. They focus on the engineering and not the emotional activist politics. Your political position should be irrelevant. My background is banking, international investment and now property development. I use that experience when commenting.

All the best. I don’t hold grudges.

 

[DarloRich]

All the best. I don’t hold grudges.

that is great -neither do I. I DO however often disagree with people

 

[DC1989]

D&I and ESG are the consultancy costs and embedded bureaucracy that has killed HS2. One does not mind being challenged, one does mind being lied about with ‘gotcha’ type replies due to not reading what a person has written.

It has been reported on [many times] regards why other countries built high speed rail cheaper, guess what… it is because their bureaucracy does not have said ESG and D&I embedded costing £billions. I repeat ‘Environmental’ alone costs an eye-watering sum. This alone is enough to sink a project before the nonsense around it with route delay and dithering et al. So you may not agree, but that is what the research shows. France doesn’t engage in this. Japan doesn’t. They focus on the engineering and not the emotional activist politics. Your political position should be irrelevant. My background is banking, international investment and now property development. I use that experience when commenting.

All the best. I don’t hold grudges.

There is 100% an issue with the planning system and associated bureaucracy and costs. Just look at the Lower Thames Crossing for another example - >£250 million on the planning application alone (Which has been withdrawn) >800 million in total and it's nowhere near being built - and in all likelihood will be shelved. 30,000 pages of documentation for the planning application and it still wasn't enough

Of course many people recognise this but also want to be able to keep things the way they are so they can object to 30 year old unused petrol stations becoming flats that people can live in..

There was a woman in the news recently who was giddy at the fact she had personally prevented thousands of homes being built.

 

[BAFRA77]

Message me privately then, this is way off topic regards the line itself, but what I have stated [has] cost HS2.

@BRX - can you post those up once you have them please for the benefit of the rest of us.

 

[21C101]

D&I and ESG are the consultancy costs and embedded bureaucracy that has killed HS2. One does not mind being challenged, one does mind being lied about with ‘gotcha’ type replies due to not reading what a person has written.

It has been reported on [many times] regards why other countries built high speed rail cheaper, guess what… it is because their bureaucracy does not have said ESG and D&I embedded costing £billions. I repeat ‘Environmental’ alone costs an eye-watering sum. This alone is enough to sink a project before the nonsense around it with route delay and dithering et al. So you may not agree, but that is what the research shows. France doesn’t engage in this. Japan doesn’t. They focus on the engineering and not the emotional activist politics. Your political position should be irrelevant. My background is banking, international investment and now property development. I use that experience when commenting.

All the best. I don’t hold grudges.

I think you are wasting your time trying to explain that here.

15 years of near zero interest rates have allowed all sorts of malinvestment to take place without (yet) suffering the consequences and allowed all sorts of essentally bankrupt outfits to keep trading

Those days are over now and the tide is going out. Few realise the financial hurricane that is incoming (I suspect Sunak does and that is why HS2 phase 2 is being canned).

 

[DarloRich]

Those days are over now and the tide is going out. Few realise the financial hurricane that is incoming

i think those of us with a mortgage might know..................

( Cheers Trussy!)

 

[northwichcat]

A few things to clarify:

nothing additional to what is already committed. All HS2 trains were already proposed to be able to use the existing network.

If there's no additional infrastructure between the West Midlands and Manchester (whether it's HS2 or not) they'll be no capacity to deliver additional services. Every HS2 service to Manchester would come at the expense of a Pendolino one, or other existing services. A separate HS2 line was supposed to free up paths on the WCML for local services cut back as part of the enhanced Pendolino timetable, to be reinstated, as well as adding in additional services. We were expecting additional Macclesfield-Manchester locals, Northwich-Manchester locals and Crewe or Hazel Grove-Manchester locals. Where are the 3 paths going to come from if there's no additional infrastructure as part of HS2 trains arriving? The number of Manchester to London services on existing infrastructure was supposed to be reduced to just one an hour.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

If there's no additional infrastructure between the West Midlands and Manchester (whether it's HS2 or not) they'll be no capacity to deliver additional services. Every HS2 service to Manchester would come at the expense of a Pendolino one, or other existing services. A separate HS2 line was supposed to free up paths on the WCML for local services cut back as part of the enhanced Pendolino timetable, to be reinstated, as well as adding in additional services. We were expecting additional Macclesfield-Manchester locals, Northwich-Manchester locals and Crewe or Hazel Grove-Manchester locals. Where are the 3 paths going to come from if there's no additional infrastructure as part of HS2 trains arriving? The number of Manchester to London services on existing infrastructure was supposed to be reduced to just one an hour.

Simple answer - you aren’t getting them.

 

[BAFRA77]

Update from the Press Association Wires:

HS2 will not be extended to Euston unless enough private investment is secured, PA Media reports. PA says:

PA understands that Rishi Sunak’s commitment to extend the high-speed railway to the central London station is contingent on a substantial proportion of the cost being met by private funds.

If not enough money is found, HS2 will permanently stop at Old Oak Common in the capital’s western suburbs.

Extending HS2 to Euston involves digging a 4.5-mile tunnel from Old Oak Common and building a six-platform station next to the existing West Coast Main Line terminus.

At his speech to the Conservative party conference on Wednesday, the prime minister said: “We will complete the line from Birmingham to Euston.”

He added that the government’s new plan for the central London station will generate “£6.5 billion of savings”.

A No 10 source said the figure was a combination of replanning the project after considering “what is no longer required” and a developer contribution model such as the one used in Battersea, south-west London.

A Department for Transport (DfT) document stated that the development of Battersea Power Station and nearby Nine Elms “secured £9bn of private sector investment”.

DfT officials believe the capacity of Old Oak Common as a terminus station can be stretched to eight trains per hour, which is the same as planned for Euston after the scrapping of HS2 north of Birmingham.

But there are concerns at the comparative lack of options for onward journeys from Old Oak Common.

Government modelling shows two-thirds of people would prefer to travel to or from Euston.

HS2 work at Euston was paused in February because costs had ballooned to £4.8bn compared with an initial budget of £2.6bn.

The DfT said it will appoint a development company, separate from HS2 Ltd, to manage the delivery of the Euston project.

Euston was initially due to have 11 platforms for high-speed trains but will now have six.

Railway consultant William Barter, whose recent clients include the DfT, told PA the plan was “totally unambitious” as it “rules out options” for expanding the railway north of Birmingham in the future.

 

[Norm_D_Ploom]

HS2 not going to Manchester is a joke. Outside the bubble, I can tell you the urban economics data isn’t even close. Manchesters urbanised landmass is larger than Birmingham’s, and the population is considerably larger by several hundred thousand people (ignoring imaginary lines such as administrative lines). Further, the GDP of the Manchester area is considerably larger and the status of the companies is that much greater and global in nature. You can also feel it Manchester vs Birmingham. I love the UK. I wish all places to succeed, but the decades old (correct at the time) belief that Birmingham is the Second City just is no longer true on any metric. It is third and neither is it a close run thing (for now). Manchester is also pulling away. Anyway, a topic for another thread. HS2 not going to Manchester and with no addressing of the Castlefield viaduct/corridor is verging in negligence. Manchester is right to be angry. London civil servants can’t even put Crewe on a map in the right place!!

GM v WM, there is very little difference between the two and depending on which way you position your argument you can make a case for either.

Manchester as a city is significantly smaller than Leeds.

 

[BRX]

Message me privately then, this is way off topic regards the line itself, but what I have stated [has] cost HS2.

I think it's fairly obvious to everyone that you don't have any serious evidence to offer, whether it relates to the wider financial world or specifically to the cost of HS2.

 

[DC1989]

Fury as Government U-turns on 'fairytale' pledge to reopen Leamside Line after just 24 hours​

Didn't take long.......

 

[DarloRich]

According to Daniel Holland of BBC/Evening Chronicle the Leamside line has already been removed from the list of projects. That didn't last long.................

Fury as Government U-turns on 'fairytale' pledge to reopen Leamside Line after just 24 hours....

The Government has U-turned on its commitment to reopen the Leamside railway line, just 24 hours after making the massive announcement.

Government U-turns on pledge to reopen Leamside Line after just 24 hours

The restoration of the mothballed railway line was included in an initial list of projects in Rishi Sunak's Network North programme, but has already been removed

www.chroniclelive.co.uk

 

[andyjd70]

Update from the Press Association Wires:

Is it feasible for some trains to run from OOC to Paddington ? Given All Paddington ICs will be stopping at OOC.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If this is true then it should ALL be cancelled. It's worthless without Euston - an utter white elephant.

(Edit: speculative replies here please: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...crapped-what-should-happen-now.255534/page-19)

 

[BAFRA77]

Is it feasible for some trains to run from OOC to Paddington ? Given All Paddington ICs will be stopping at OOC.

Would it not be a question of platforming capacity though?

 

[75A]

an utter white elephant.

Been saying that from day one.

 

[PaulHarding150]

Presumably TfW would continue to run DMUs on the Holyhead to Cardiff service anyway (though they could consider bi-modes).

but TfW are in the process of accepting and introducing a fleet of 77 brand new 197s which are diesel only. I argued on here years ago that they should have future proofed them by ordering bi-modes but was shot down. But here we are.

Anyway back to the route, the announcement is being unpacked and unsurprisingly torn apart:

North Wales electric rail expected to cost more than £1bn​

The UK government has given "a cast-iron commitment" that the electrification of the north Wales main rail line will happen.

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies said the full business case is still to be done but the line will be built.

Welsh ministers dismissed the £1bn cost announced as a "back of a fag packet figure" and a transport expert has put the cost at about £1.5bn or more.

Mr Davies admitted the cost would "probably be a bit higher" than £1bn.

On Thursday, Rishi Sunak announced that £1bn would be provided to electrify the north Wales main line, following his decision to scrap the second leg of the HS2 high speed rail line

Welsh government Economy Minister Vaughan Gething said the £1bn costing was "back of a fag packet stuff".

Speaking on BBC Newsnight, he said no development work had been done into the project.

"If you don't have the development work done then you can't control the costs and they don't really know if a billion pounds will do it," he said.

Prof Stuart Cole, from the University of South Wales and a government adviser on transport, said the prime minister's £1bn figure "presumably includes signalling and straightening the truck".

"However, the figure he used was based on the study in 2015, and construction costs increased by about 7% per annum, so we're now really talking about £1.5bn or more," he said.

No timescale has been announced for the project.

North Wales electric rail expected to cost more than £1bn

Minister says the price will "probably be a bit higher", as expert puts figure at £1.5bn or more.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[class26]

If this is true then it should ALL be cancelled. It's worthless without Euston - an utter white elephant.

and waste the squillions already spent ?

Complete what is already underway and once open I suspect pressure will build for extensions ...............
In the meantime we need to have a very good look at why costs are so high, agree a plan then keep government (of ALL colours) out of it !