East-West Rail (EWR): will it happen and how should it be done?

[al green]

I'd be relatively surprised if it took a lot of journeys that would otherwise cross London (e.g. GWML to WCML) because the interchange points won't have much in the way of long distance service, e.g. MKC only has three of the 9tph fast on the WCML and Oxford requires an extra change, and because there is already a direct Birmingham and Manchester to Oxford service on XC. I suspect most journeys on it will be direct.

I expect that extra change at Oxford won't be required because EWR will go on to Didcot, replacing the OXf-DID shuttle. That also eases platform capacity issues at Oxford. Post HS2 more fast trains on WCML will call at MKC.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I expect that extra change at Oxford won't be required because EWR will go on to Didcot, replacing the OXf-DID shuttle. That also eases platform capacity issues at Oxford. Post HS2 more fast trains on WCML will call at MKC.

Precisely one more in my understanding. Most of the "Avanti" service on the WCML post HS2 is proposed to be what stops there now, plus one more Birmingham.

 

[Nicholas43]

I expect that extra change at Oxford won't be required because EWR will go on to Didcot, replacing the OXf-DID shuttle. That also eases platform capacity issues at Oxford. Post HS2 more fast trains on WCML will call at MKC.

From Dec 2023 there will only be 1 shuttle per hour Didcot - Oxford (with some continuing to Banbury). This is partly because Kennington Junction struggles to find paths for all the current services.
And why do people buy into the absurd branding "East West Rail"? All they are doing is putting the tracks back on the long-existing railway from Bletchley to Gavray Junction, and smoking pipe dreams about a new line from Cambridge to Bedford via Melton Constable (or some such), to open in 2050, maybe.

 

[Elecman]

1. Hasn't the Borders line actually largely met it's long-term projections, it just got to the 5-year mark a bit early.
2. How has the Borders line created journeys where you can avoid London?

The potential for EWR to intercept cross-London traffic is fairly minimal, it will be edge cases only of people determined to avoid London or who enjoy spending more time than necessary on the trains. What EWR will do is create an important commuter corridor linking Oxford, MK and Cambridge (and Bedford, to a lesser extent) to a wider area rather than being concentrated on the London radial infrastructure. This will hopefully allow more development to take place between those towns at places like Bicester, Winsford, Stewartby, St Neots, Cambourne etc that will provide some measure of relief to the UK's shattered housing market as well as possibly build a limited amount of economic counterweight to London and so temper the economic domination of the capital.

You mean. Winslow I assume not Winsford ?

 

[zwk500]

You mean. Winslow I assume not Winsford ?

Yes, apologies the interposing of those two is a long running annoyance to myself.

 

[cle]

I expect that extra change at Oxford won't be required because EWR will go on to Didcot, replacing the OXf-DID shuttle. That also eases platform capacity issues at Oxford. Post HS2 more fast trains on WCML will call at MKC.

When Didcot-Oxford gets wired (and I think it has to be a 'when') - I'm sure these shuttles will take on/merge with the new semi-fast Padd-Didcots. The stopping patterns on those is far swifter than the Reading-Oxford local stations ever got, so I'd expect they would be popular - and might not be worth jumping from a good seat and a show/burst of work at Reading.

 

[swt_passenger]

I’m unsure what this thread is about? So was it originally about whether or not the section east of Bedford Would ever happen? I think it’s pretty well understood that Bicester to Bletchley will happen?

 

[SynthD]

I’m unsure what this thread is about? So was it originally about whether or not the section east of Bedford Would ever happen? I think it’s pretty well understood that Bicester to Bletchley will happen?

People leap on the words of the current government (who are manoeuvring to buy as many pensioner votes as possible) like they will permanently affect long term projects with bipartisan support.

 

[cle]

A different question might be, given recent developments:

could a HS2 which is limited to 3tph Curzon St and a few WCML paths per hour now have capacity for a EWR interchange (and big F-O new town / Ebbsfleet type situation / railhead)

 

[Nottingham59]

A different question might be, given recent developments:

could a HS2 which is limited to 3tph Curzon St and a few WCML paths per hour now have capacity for a EWR interchange (and big F-O new town / Ebbsfleet type situation / railhead)

That would make EWR much more useful to many more people.

Your suggestion overlaps with what I think HS2 should have done: Specify a 4-track railway between Ruislip and Wendover.

At the southern end, one pair use the New North Mainline to a surface terminus at Old Oak Common. The other pair in tunnel direct to Euston.

At the north end, two tracks form HS2 to Manchester. The 'slow' lines go through Aylesbury and then join EWR in both directions.

The prospect of express trains direct to Euston from Aylesbury, Wendover, Bicester, Winslow would have countered many of the objections from the good citizens of Buckinghamshire. And the cost would have been tiny. The contract C1 to build this 22km section was awarded to ALIGN JV for £950M. Four tracks would have been perhaps half as much again - £500M more. Adding an East and a West chord at Calvert, and an East-North chord in Bicester would have cost another £500M. So £1bn to quad the Chiltern Mainline south of Bicester, and also 8-track the WCML south of Bletchley.

Align JV to Build C1 Section of HS2 in UK

High Speed Two Ltd., the company responsible for developing high-speed rail between London and the North of England, issued NTP to the Align joint venture.

tunnelingonline.com

 

[SynthD]

8 tracking the WCML south of Bletchley is such an incomplete task, it can’t be called a sensible goal. The chords would be slow, Bicester to Leamington would instantly be congested.

The prospect of express trains from Euston to medium towns wouldn’t have countered much.

 

[JonathanH]

The cancellation of HS2 is being seen as an opportunity to get Bedford to Cambridge reconsidered.
https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/calls-bedford-cambridge-part-east-27855151

Calls for the Bedford to Cambridge part of East West Rail to be cancelled after HS2 leg scrapped

A charity has criticised East West Rail's 'huge environmental and carbon cost'

The decision to cut the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 has fuelled opposition to East West Rail (EWR), which plans to link Oxford and Cambridge. A countryside charity has questioned the need for the Bedford to Cambridge section of EWR.

A spokesperson for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough branch of the Countryside Charity, also known as CPRE, said: “The now-cancelled HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester was designed to operate between two large cities, to improve connections between London and the Northwest and to contribute to the levelling up of the north of England.

“This cannot be said of the Bedford to Cambridge section of East West Rail, which is forecast to deliver only two thousand commuters a day into Cambridge. This comes at a huge environmental and carbon cost.

“Compared with the new Elizabeth Line which carries half a million commuters per day, the economic benefit to Bedford and Cambridge of East West Rail is negligible. The East West Rail money would be better spent on more cost-beneficial transport projects and other much-needed public investments, just like the plans for the liberated HS2 funds.”

The spokesperson also criticised ‘a capital cost of £8 billion’ for the project but EWR questioned this figure, explaining that the estimated cost of the Project is £4.46 billion to £5.34 billion.

While Bedford to Cambridge will see a brand new railway built under EWR, the Oxford to Bicester line will be upgraded, a section of railway between Bicester and Bletchley will be brought back into use, and the Bletchley to Bedford line will be refurbished.

The East West Rail company was created in 2018 and original plans were developed by the Department for Transport, Network Rail and the East West Rail Alliance. Its route plan was updated this year, and can be found here.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak scrapped the Midlands to Manchester section of HS2 on Wednesday (October 4), at his party conference speech in Manchester.

 

[Amos]

Reported earlier on the BBC that the national audit office are now looking into EWR

East West Rail: NAO investigation into planned rail line

The new link could unlock £103billion of growth but critics say the business plan does not add up.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government's spending watchdog has opened an investigation into the planned £5bn rail link between Oxford and Cambridge.

East West Rail (EWR) would link the two university cities via a new section of track between Bedford and Cambridge.

 

[JonathanH]

What is the objective here? To prove that spending £5bn on this railway is inappropriate?

Does EWR still have general government support? I seem to remember that Grant Shapps suggested the Cambridge bit should be cancelled towards the end of his term as Secretary of State for Transport.

 

[Weekender]

This was inevitable after the cancellation of HS2. Even this government wouldn’t be stupid/arrogant enough to continue with East/West Rail after crapping on passengers in the north.
I confidently predict this won’t go any further than Milton Keynes.

 

[swt_passenger]

This was inevitable after the cancellation of HS2. Even this government wouldn’t be stupid/arrogant enough to continue with East/West Rail after crapping on passengers in the north.
I confidently predict this won’t go any further than Milton Keynes.

I predict it will also reach Bedford, but only because the line already exists.

 

[zwk500]

What is the objective here? To prove that spending £5bn on this railway is inappropriate?

Presumably, to determine if the current cost estimates are in any way accurate.

Does EWR still have general government support?

A genuine question as to whether it ever did, but certainly at this point, who knows what the government position is?

 

[Amos]

Personally I feel that as the line is already half built it needs to go all the way to Cambridge.It will be the world’s most expensive white elephant if it terminates at Bletchley or Bedford.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally I feel that as the line is already half built it needs to go all the way to Cambridge.It will be the world’s most expensive white elephant if it terminates at Bletchley or Bedford.

If it terminated at Bletchley it would be. As long as it runs to MKC it isn't - there is an established travel demand between Oxford and MK in the X5 bus, which has suppressed demand because it's now a rather grim city bus, and potential for more due to housing in Bletchley being fairly affordable compared to Oxford, as well as commuting the other way.

People have this image of mortarboarded professors eating cucumber sandwiches around a table while discussing their research, but really it's a lot more about Milton Keynes than those rose tinted old images might suggest.

 

[Dr Day]

What is the objective here? To prove that spending £5bn on this railway is inappropriate?

My reading is that it is an 'independent' audit of the business case - particularly the strategic and economic dimensions ie Have the DfT 'over-egged' or double-counted the forecast economic benefits including the linkages between building new stations, allowing lots of new housing around them and joining them up with a railway line with the expected frequency of service? Maybe they will question whether the people living in the new housing will actually want to be travelling to the places served by the train service, or to other places they will have to drive to? Maybe they will question why the housing can't be higher density, more affordable and closer to the jobs to avoid the need to commute in the first place? Maybe they will question whether a high quality, high frequency bus with bus priority in congested areas could deliver better connectivity for lower costs?

Either way, can't see the outcome having an immediate direct bearing on this project, although there may be 'lessons learnt' for other schemes around the process of scrutinising business cases by DfT officials.

 

[MikeWM]

They've produced quite a fascinating map here in the last few days:

https://eastwestrail.co.uk/news/latest-stories/ewr-improves-uk-connectivity

Here's part of it


(image : map of the proposed east end of east-west rail, with some rather dubious geography)

Apparently they're going to build a new line direct from Cambridge to Norwich that avoids Ely, which is nice of them. And somehow divert the WAML so that it avoids the new Cambridge South.

I'm not *entirely* convinced these people know what they're doing :-/

 

[The Planner]

They've produced quite a fascinating map here in the last few days:

https://eastwestrail.co.uk/news/latest-stories/ewr-improves-uk-connectivity

Here's part of it

View attachment 145429
(image : map of the proposed east end of east-west rail, with some rather dubious geography)

Apparently they're going to build a new line direct from Cambridge to Norwich that avoids Ely, which is nice of them. And somehow divert the WAML so that it avoids the new Cambridge South.

I'm not *entirely* convinced these people know what they're doing :-/

Its a schematic, nothing more. It isnt meant to be detailed to show what its trying to achieve.

 

[Arkeeos]

Under the current government it will never happen, I can guarantee that.

 

[JKF]

At what point will Sunak pull the plug on the eastern section? Will he have time before they are removed from office?

 

[fishwomp]

At what point will Sunak pull the plug on the eastern section? Will he have time before they are removed from office?

And the Bletchley-Bedford section - also has not had physical work start yet. It too must be at risk - the works proposed at Bedford are massive for adding 4 movements an hour at most.

if canned by Tories, after an inevitable redesign and pause, Labour can pickup the shovels whenever they like..

 

[daodao]

And the Bletchley-Bedford section - also has not had physical work start yet. It too must be at risk - the works proposed at Bedford are massive for adding 4 movements an hour at most.

If the segment east of Bedford is cancelled, the existing line from the west into Bedford Midland would be adequate for 1 tph stopping service from Bedford to Bletchley and 1 tph fast service from Bedford to Oxford. The latter service could be extended to Didcot [in lieu of the existing GWR shuttle] to improve connectivity to places further west served by the GW main line.

 

[dk1]

They've produced quite a fascinating map here in the last few days:

https://eastwestrail.co.uk/news/latest-stories/ewr-improves-uk-connectivity

Here's part of it

View attachment 145429
(image : map of the proposed east end of east-west rail, with some rather dubious geography)

Apparently they're going to build a new line direct from Cambridge to Norwich that avoids Ely, which is nice of them. And somehow divert the WAML so that it avoids the new Cambridge South.

I'm not *entirely* convinced these people know what they're doing :-/

Oh my days. That map is absolutely cringing it’s so inaccurate.

I’m in full support of EWR and the massive success that is Cambridge and it’s economy these days has to be the ultimate goal for the project.

 

[Magdalia]

Under the current government it will never happen, I can guarantee that.

That's correct, purely as a matter of process. There is another round of consultation in 2024 before EWR can move to the Development Consent stage.

At what point will Sunak pull the plug on the eastern section? Will he have time before they are removed from office?

This government does recognise the importance of economic growth in and around Cambridge. Only a few weeks ago Michael Gove made a widely reported speech about this see here:

Cambridge house building to be 'supercharged' - Gove

The city could see huge housing and business growth by 2040 with a new delivery group set up.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government says its housing plans include "supercharging Europe's science capital" – meaning Cambridge could see huge new development by 2040. It was recently reported that the housing secretary was drawing up proposals for the city and surrounding area that include 250,000 new homes.

Peter Freeman, who was a key player in the Kings Cross regeneration, is currently leading a "Cambridge 2040 Delivery Group", see here:

A Cambridge 2040 Delivery Group was being set up to lead the development of the city, backed by £5m and led by the chairman of Homes England, Peter Freeman.
Mr Freeman would work on the "detailed vision for Cambridge's future" including what it meant for housing, businesses - including in the technology and life sciences sectors - transport, healthy living and green spaces.
The delivery group would develop a master plan, "enforce high-quality design standards", buy land, approve planning and work with developers, Mr Gove said.

Note that transport is included in the remit. This government's attitude to East West Rail is likely to be set by what Freeman says when he reports.

 

[The Planner]

And the Bletchley-Bedford section - also has not had physical work start yet. It too must be at risk - the works proposed at Bedford are massive for adding 4 movements an hour at most.

if canned by Tories, after an inevitable redesign and pause, Labour can pickup the shovels whenever they like..

Bedford is on the basis of it going east. You wouldn't do that if its only terminating there. Some fairly advanced plans to put bridges over two of the level crossings between Bletchley and Bedford.

 

[paul1609]

1. Hasn't the Borders line actually largely met it's long-term projections, it just got to the 5-year mark a bit early.
2. How has the Borders line created journeys where you can avoid London?

The potential for EWR to intercept cross-London traffic is fairly minimal, it will be edge cases only of people determined to avoid London or who enjoy spending more time than necessary on the trains. What EWR will do is create an important commuter corridor linking Oxford, MK and Cambridge (and Bedford, to a lesser extent) to a wider area rather than being concentrated on the London radial infrastructure. This will hopefully allow more development to take place between those towns at places like Bicester, Winsford, Stewartby, St Neots, Cambourne etc that will provide some measure of relief to the UK's shattered housing market as well as possibly build a limited amount of economic counterweight to London and so temper the economic domination of the capital.

I think it will be interesting to see how this manifests itself. South of London these radial routes already exist in the Medway Valley/Redhill Tonbridge/ North Downs and further out the Marshlink/ coastway lines but have seen their services repeatedly slashed and broken up on the alter of operating convince and a long standing offer of tatty life expired stock. This is despite paralleling the absolutely chocked 4 lane M25 motorway and the totally inadequate A27.