Grand Union's proposed Stirling – Euston service now authorised by ORR

[A S Leib]

There is quite a big question as to how viable that operation would be without the Glasgow / Edinburgh stops if it happens.

From this thread

(Sorry if there's been a thread on this already – I couldn't find one when searching for it.)

What do you think the chances of Grand Union's proposed Stirling – Euston (four trains per day via Larbert, Greenfaulds, Whifflet, Motherwell, Lockerbie, Carlisle, Preston, Crewe, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes Central) services are?

It might get some traffic from the Scottish Central Belt as well as passengers from Stirling, Perth, Dundee and northern Scotland who'd prefer an easier change than Edinburgh or crossing Glasgow. I suspect that its main customer base would end up being those going from Nuneaton, Crewe and – especially, where LNR isn't an option – Preston and Carlisle to London, then north of Edinburgh – Preston, Crewe and connections from there.

I don't know if there's any other factors which led to Wrexham & Shropshire ending, but the fact that that called at Wolverhampton and Tame Bridge Parkway, which have better services to Birmingham than Larbert, Greenfaulds and Whifflet do to Glasgow / Edinburgh, doesn't make me massively optimistic about Grand Union. (Motherwell's only fifteen minutes from Glasgow but already has four trains per day to Crewe, eleven to Euston plus the Sleeper and five TPE services per day.)

 

[Failed Unit]

When you look at Grand Centrals Bradford - London service it seems to be doing OK (of course I don't actually know if it is making any money but assume it is)

However from the Central Belt point of view it could open up some interesting options. I am not sure if it will attract users from Falkirk, Linlithgow etc, but then people are happy to drive to the airport.

People prefer direct trains, but the stop at Crewe is useful for the East Midlands, Nuneaton for Birmingham and Milton Keynes has a large demand in its own right. I think they could fill the trains (make money is a different option) but I getting paths will be a challenge if they are going to complete with LNER on the Anglo Scottish Market.

 

[A S Leib]

People prefer direct trains, but the stop at Crewe is useful for the East Midlands

And possibly more attractive than XC's provision of one train per day to Cardiff.

Nuneaton for Birmingham and Milton Keynes has a large demand in its own right.

As well as services to Leicester and, soon (before any Grand Union services run?), Oxford.

I think they could fill the trains (make money is a different option) but I getting paths will be a challenge if they are going to complete with LNER on the Anglo Scottish Market.

Isn't the competition mostly Avanti and the M74 / M6 in this case?

 

[Failed Unit]

For the Central Belt I never considered Avanti heading to London (The crossing of Glasgow isn't the worse thing in the world to do but not a easy as Edinburgh Waverley / Haymarket) - The East Coast frequency was better and normally much cheaper. I wouldn't be conviced it will get people out the cars (however Lumo in one respect is encouraging driving - most people I know use Lumo drive to Stevenage where they would have previously used a local trian from thier local station to Kings Cross and doubled back rather than drove all the way. People are happy to drive from Harpenden / St Alban's - Stevenage to name a couple)

For the Southern end of the route, probably is taking on Avanti, I use to change at Haymarket. But Nuneaton and Milton Keynes as now useful new destinations.

Is Gartcosh for me would be an interesting stop as it is close to the M73 so could attract drivers. But certainly the stops close to Glasgow could be very well placed to take traffic from Avanti.

 

[Philip]

This is an opportunity to finally connect the Manchester Ox-Preston large stations with London; even if calling at Piccadilly 13/14 is unsuitable, it could stop at Oxford Road to serve Manchester. It doesn't need to run via Warrington as this stretch is already well served by Avanti.
North of Preston is also well served with fast trains to the south, so the time penalty of running via Manchester shouldn't be a big deal.

 

[The Puddock]

Is Gartcosh for me would be an interesting stop as it is close to the M73 so could attract drivers. But certainly the stops close to Glasgow could be very well placed to take traffic from Avanti.

Gartcosh only has 92 car park spaces. Greenfaulds has a much larger car park so may be a better option for a cross border service.

As for Grand Union, I'll believe it when I see the first service running.

 

[Failed Unit]

Gartcosh only has 92 car park spaces. Greenfaulds has a much larger car park so may be a better option for a cross border service.

As for Grand Union, I'll believe it when I see the first service running.

Also I forgot Gartcosh isn't on the route, as the curve to coatbridge takes it away from Gartcosh anyway. Never drive to Greenfaulds, is it difficult to get to from the M80? Doesn't look that bad from google maps.

 

[The Puddock]

Never drive to Greenfaulds, is it difficult to get to from the M80? Doesn't look that bad from google maps.

It's dead easy - takes about 3 minutes from junction 5.

 

[A S Leib]

however Lumo in one respect is encouraging driving - most people I know use Lumo drive to Stevenage where they would have previously used a local trian from thier local station to Kings Cross and doubled back rather than drove all the way. People are happy to drive from Harpenden / St Alban's - Stevenage to name a couple

Agreed – I've gone from Hemel to Stevenage by car then Lumo to Newcastle (or reverse) a few times (partly because getting to Hemel station for 04:03 is considerably less attractive than leaving an hour and a half later and not having a 50+ minute wait at King's Cross with almost nothing open).

 

[JonathanH]

This is an opportunity to finally connect the Manchester Ox-Preston large stations with London; even if calling at Piccadilly 13/14 is unsuitable, it could stop at Oxford Road to serve Manchester. It doesn't need to run via Warrington as this stretch is already well served by Avanti.

Is it?

It isn't their remit or plan. Oxford Road wouldn't be any more suitable than platforms 13/14 at Piccadilly.

North of Preston is also well served with fast trains to the south, so the time penalty of running via Manchester shouldn't be a big deal.

Grand Union want to make money and minimise costs. Going via Manchester, even if the only stop was at Bolton, adds time, and therefore runs the risk of not being able to complete as many journeys in the day as running direct.

 

[A S Leib]

This is an opportunity to finally connect the Manchester Ox-Preston large stations with London; even if calling at Piccadilly 13/14 is unsuitable, it could stop at Oxford Road to serve Manchester. It doesn't need to run via Warrington as this stretch is already well served by Avanti.
North of Preston is also well served with fast trains to the south, so the time penalty of running via Manchester shouldn't be a big deal.

But neither Bolton – London nor Stoke (if you ignore Crewe as it has via Warrington) – Scotland is enough demand to justify the unreliability issues, as has been discussed on another recent thread.

 

[Energy]

This is an opportunity to finally connect the Manchester Ox-Preston large stations with London; even if calling at Piccadilly 13/14 is unsuitable, it could stop at Oxford Road to serve Manchester. It doesn't need to run via Warrington as this stretch is already well served by Avanti.
North of Preston is also well served with fast trains to the south, so the time penalty of running via Manchester shouldn't be a big deal.

I doubt it would pass revenue abstraction, Manchester Oxford Road is already well-served to Scotland and I'm not convinced a service from it to London would be anywhere near as popular as Picadilly.

 

[The Planner]

This is an opportunity to finally connect the Manchester Ox-Preston large stations with London; even if calling at Piccadilly 13/14 is unsuitable, it could stop at Oxford Road to serve Manchester. It doesn't need to run via Warrington as this stretch is already well served by Avanti.
North of Preston is also well served with fast trains to the south, so the time penalty of running via Manchester shouldn't be a big deal.

It already has paths via the WCML, why would they want to go via Manchester? Its their business and their train set (depending on what it ends up as)

 

[Philip]

If Scotland to Oxford Road is abstractive from TPE, surely Preston to Euston via Warrington is abstractice too, from Avanti?

Again, there is already a good service between Preston-Wigan-Warrington-Crewe and Euston, but Chorley, Bolton & Salford Crescent have a poor long distance service offering (to Scotland as well as London, since TPE only stop half of their services at Bolton and none at the other two). This is the market Grand Union should be focusing on with the paths granted to them, not a route already served by Avanti.

 

[A S Leib]

Again, there is already a good service between Preston-Wigan-Warrington-Crewe and Euston, but Chorley, Bolton & Salford Crescent have a poor long distance service offering (to Scotland as well as London, since TPE only stop half of their services at Bolton and none at the other two

Salford Crescent is six minutes from Manchester Victoria and ten from Piccadilly. Finsbury Park's in a similar situation – apart from having twenty times the passenger numbers – and doesn't have any long-distance services, just suburban routes and sets of outer commuter routes bolted together.

 

[The Planner]

If Scotland to Oxford Road is abstractive from TPE, surely Preston to Euston via Warrington is abstractice too, from Avanti?

Again, there is already a good service between Preston-Wigan-Warrington-Crewe and Euston, but Chorley, Bolton & Salford Crescent have a poor long distance service offering (to Scotland as well as London, since TPE only stop half of their services at Bolton and none at the other two). This is the market Grand Union should be focusing on with the paths granted to them, not a route already served by Avanti.

That isnt how it works, Grand Union clearly see the market as WCML and have bid for paths as such. Its up to them as to what they want to do. Email them and ask why they havent gone through Manchester and see what they say.

 

[Zontar]

What traction is realistic and available for this?

 

[JonathanH]

What traction is realistic and available for this?

Voyagers, currently being used by Avanti. Discussed here https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/voyagers-for-stirling-euston.255027/#post-6422070

 

[Snow1964]

ORR has granted access

ORR has today (7 March) given the go-ahead for Grand Union Trains, an open access operator, to start a new train service between London and the city of Stirling, from June 2025. ORR’s decision will offer more choice to passengers, bring private sector investment to the railway and increase competition.

Grand Union Trains will introduce four new return services per day between London Euston and Stirling stations. These services will also call at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert. Larbert, Greenfaulds and Whifflet will receive their first direct services to London.

ORR found that the proposed services would increase choice for passengers, significantly increasing direct journey opportunities to and from London and central and southern Scotland, while making use of existing capacity on the network.

The new services will be the first run by an open access operator on the West Coast Mainline. Open access operators run services independently of government funding as they do not have a franchise agreement with government.

Following ORR’s decision to approve new Grand Union Trains services between Carmarthen in south Wales and London Paddington in 2022, ORR has now approved open access services on three of Britain’s major routes.

ORR: Open access services given green light between London and Stirling | Office of Rail and Road

The latest access decision by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) provides more services for rail passengers travelling between London and central Scotland.

www.orr.gov.uk

The decision letter has some interesting points, Avanti messed up its abstraction calc (got 0.14), but ORR got 0.38 (above 0.3 threshold) point 49. Also is reasoning behind diesel instead of electric being allowed is in point 55

https://www.orr.gov.uk/media/25236/download

 

[kacper]

The Office of Rail and Road have just posted on X/Twitter:

Today we've given the go-ahead for Grand Union Trains to start a new train service between London and the city of Stirling from June 2025.

Grand Union Trains will introduce four new return services per day between London Euston and Stirling.
These services will also call at Milton Keynes Central, Nuneaton, Crewe, Preston, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert.

https://x.com/railandroad/status/1765641856694575205?s=46

 

[AlterEgo]

Have they actually sourced stock for this yet?

 

[YorkRailFan]

I'm a bit cautious on this one, solely because there has been little to no news on Grand Union's proposed GWML service that's meant to start by year's end. They also seem to not have any stock for this, although I could be wrong. Until Grand Union's GWML service begins, I'm not entirely taking this one seriously.

 

[dk1]

Have they actually sourced stock for this yet?

Just says likely to be a 221 or 222.

 

[DanNCL]

Just says likely to be a 221 or 222.

Which is insanity considering it’s entirely under the wires.

 

[dk1]

Which is insanity considering it’s entirely under the wires.

I don’t think they are bothered about that. Better to get it started with whatever is available.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just says likely to be a 221 or 222.

Two good reasons for not touching it with a bargepole.

 

[A S Leib]

I wonder if there'd be any Grand Union-only fares for south Wales – northwest England / Scotland once that and the Carmarthen services are running, although I think changing at Crewe, Birmingham New Street or Manchester Piccadilly's an hour quicker than via London.

 

[DanNCL]

I don’t think they are bothered about that. Better to get it started with whatever is available.

From Grand Union that’s understandable but from the ORR when they like to bang on about green credentials it’s disappointing.

 

[dk1]

From Grand Union that’s understandable but from the ORR when they like to bang on about green credentials it’s disappointing.

Something to look at at a later date. Just good that it’s got off the ground for now.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Which is insanity considering it’s entirely under the wires.

The electric alternative would be some 110mph 350/2s or 379s.

I'm not sure you would acquire new trains with access rights approval for only 5 years (2025-30), although the decision letter came close to approving rights till 2034, which it says is the earliest likely date for HS2 services reaching the WCML

Ex-Avanti 221s would be able to use the EPS speeds on the northern half of the WCML, and should be available before any 222s from EMR.