Conscription.

DC1989 · 2 Feb 2024

Russia is now a spending a third of GDP on their military. Most NATO members can barely crack 2%

We could keep sticking our fingers in our ears and pretending everything is hunky dory, as we did in 2014 or we can start preparing for what we hope will never come. If the Finns and Swedes are worried, and they are a pragmatic bunch not prone to hysteria, I think that speaks volumes.

China is almost certain to invade Taiwan in the next few years. That could go 3 ways, they make a preemptive attack on US Naval assets in the region and then invade (Which would certainly bring the US into the War but gives them a better chance of successful invasion) or they could invade without attacking the US first, which may mean the US stays out but if they do get involved then China's chance of a successful invasion reduces. Thirdly China could blockade Taiwan but most military folk think this is unlikely.

What keeps American military chiefs up at night is having to fight a war on multiple fronts. They want to put all of their effort into the pacific theatre, that means Europe has to deal with Russia by itself and that the middle east allies deal with Iran

The military need to do better at recruitment though outsourcing it to Capita has to be one of the bizarre decisions ever made

Could conscription happen? Things can change very quickly when there's a massive black swan event (See Covid and lockdowns). Though at the moment you can be signed off work for having anxiety so how the government can force people to join the armed forces but can't even make them get a job remains to be seen.

RailUK Forums

AlistairCowell · 2 Feb 2024

I’m worried about World War 3 happening in the future, or any form of war in the UK, but news outlets does make people scared.

If the war does happen (which I hope it doesn’t happen in my lifetime), we’d all be in it together and things would not go down well. Living with wartime would be difficult.

There is no benefits in a war, and we would face power cuts, no communication (including internet), food and water shortages, medical supplies would run out, and lives would certainly be lost.

Nuclear war would have been a last thing, and surely Putin cannot end the world because something’s wrong with him. He should really know (like the rest of us) is that should there be a nuclear war, nobody wins.

spyinthesky · 2 Feb 2024

DC1989 said:
Could conscription happen? Things can change very quickly when there's a massive black swan event (See Covid and lockdowns). Though at the moment you can be signed off work for having anxiety so how the government can force people to join the armed forces but can't even make them get a job remains to be seen.

If it would come down to it, the most that could be used would be voluntary.
We have always had medical requirements in the modern era and as you say most that would not be volunteers would find it easy to fail entry requirements. Conscription will never happen.

DC1989 said:
What keeps American military chiefs up at night is having to fight a war on multiple fronts. They want to put all of their effort into the pacific theatre, that means Europe has to deal with Russia by itself and that the middle east allies deal with Iran

The same applies to Russia along with their own internal problems on top.
Russia has always preferred shock tactics but without the nuclear option. The historical problem they have like many is the logistical support to which they struggle with Ukraine alone.
If they would open any other front, the Ukrainian situation would worsen for them.
I wouldn’t read too much into Russian spending neither. Believe me that a high percentage of their defence resources are poorly maintained and of lower quality.

najaB · 2 Feb 2024

DC1989 said:
Russia is now a spending a third of GDP on their military. Most NATO members can barely crack 2%

Thing with percentages is that they can distort perceptions. Russia spends 33% of GDP on defence - so that's $500B, give or take. If EU nations spend 2% of GDP on defence, that's $300B. So not nearly as big a gap as the percentages make it appear to be.

Not to mention that, while Western defence procurement is famously wasteful, it has nothing on the absolute corruption that is rife in Russia.

Should we ignore them completely, no. Of course not. But by the same token there's no need for panic.

DC1989 · 2 Feb 2024

najaB said:
Thing with percentages is that they can distort perceptions. Russia spends 33% of GDP on defence - so that's $500B, give or take. If EU nations spend 2% of GDP on defence, that's $300B. So not nearly as big a gap as the percentages make it appear to be.

Not to mention that, while Western defence procurement is famously wasteful, it has nothing on the absolute corruption that is rife in Russia.

Should we ignore them completely, no. Of course not. But by the same token there's no need for panic.

Very true, good point. And I do agree. But I feel Western Europe does need to 'wake up'.

If you want peace prepare for war etc

najaB · 2 Feb 2024

DC1989 said:
If you want peace prepare for war etc

Alternatively: Peace doesn't defend itself.

Lost property · 2 Feb 2024

DC1989 said:
The military need to do better at recruitment though outsourcing it to Capita has to be one of the bizarre decisions ever made

Could conscription happen? Things can change very quickly when there's a massive black swan event (See Covid and lockdowns). Though at the moment you can be signed off work for having anxiety so how the government can force people to join the armed forces but can't even make them get a job remains to be seen.

Anything involving Capita is a bad decision.

However, you may wish to read the thread about anxiety / depression before being so condemnatory . Both conditions tend to be linked and are very debilitating I can assure you. The callousness of this Gov't in attempting to force people to work,when suffering from such, exemplifies their indifference to the electorate.

Recruiting for conscription will be nigh on impossible. Unlike previously, when the only sources were the radio / cinema and MSM, there are now multiple social media outlets where the conditions associated with war...carnage...will be broadcast almost to the minute. That, and it would be political suicide for any party who tried to introduce it. The best option would be some form of the old Civil Defence organisation.

" If you want peace prepare for war etc"

Remarkably similar to the infamous sign that greeted you at the gates of an RAF Station in Germany

Mogster · 2 Feb 2024

Motivation and morale in the WW2 Western allied armies is quite an interesting topic. How do you motivate citizen armies when they aren’t being asked to defend of liberate their homeland?

After WW1 it was quite obvious that the population of Western European countries and the US wouldn’t accept a return to the wholesale slaughter of WW1. No one was forced to fight at gunpoint in the UK and Commonwealth army or US. If I remember correctly no one was executed for cowardice in WW2 by the UK forces and very few by the US. People suited to combat roles were selected for those duties, those clearly not suited or who would struggle to cope long term were found other occupations, Spike Milligan is and example of the latter category. Keeping people with no aptitude at the front line was simply bad for morale. It’s interesting how many well known entertainment characters of the post war years started their careers during army service with ENSA. People like Kenneth Williams and Frankie Howerd who would appear totally unsuited to frontline service, and the army obviously agreed, were found an important role in army wartime morale boosting entertainment.

I’d imagine a similar selection process would happen if modern conscription occurred. Many do appear to have found their WW1 and WW2 frontline service a fulfilling experience.

Iskra · 3 Feb 2024

Mogster said:
Motivation and morale in the WW2 Western allied armies is quite an interesting topic. How do you motivate citizen armies when they aren’t being asked to defend of liberate their homeland?

After WW1 it was quite obvious that the population of Western European countries and the US wouldn’t accept a return to the wholesale slaughter of WW1. No one was forced to fight at gunpoint in the UK and Commonwealth army or US. If I remember correctly no one was executed for cowardice in WW2 by the UK forces and very few by the US. People suited to combat roles were selected for those duties, those clearly not suited or who would struggle to cope long term were found other occupations, Spike Milligan is and example of the latter category. Keeping people with no aptitude at the front line was simply bad for morale. It’s interesting how many well known entertainment characters of the post war years started their careers during army service with ENSA. People like Kenneth Williams and Frankie Howerd who would appear totally unsuited to frontline service, and the army obviously agreed, were found an important role in army wartime morale boosting entertainment.

I’d imagine a similar selection process would happen if modern conscription occurred. Many do appear to have found their WW1 and WW2 frontline service a fulfilling experience.

The Italian campaign did degenerate to that level, with similar casualty levels. It did of course produce a sizeable mutiny too, although the sentences weren’t too harsh for most from memory.

Just as challenging were casualty levels in the Bomber forces, where morale was a real problem during the more difficult years for those forces.

Enthusiast · 3 Feb 2024

The opening post (with which I agree in principle, if not in some of the detail) makes the question of conscription largely redundant:

azOOOOOma said:
Personally I can’t see my generation or (especially) Gen Z . My generation are largely inept. Gen Z seem to think it cool and proper to despise the country so I can’t see them being any use neither.

If conscription was introduced in the UK, especially in order to fight a war, the authorities would be spending more time and money chasing refusniks that they would running the war. There is no way that young people in this country would simply turn up at Catterick to have their hair cut and be kitted out with uniforms smelling of mothballs. They would, in extremely large numbers, simply ignore the call to arms. This would be for various reasons, but basically they all boil down to the fact that most of them simply don't fancy the idea.

It's a complete non-starter and if the government ever decides to embark on a war requiring more people than would willingly volunteer, they will need a robust Plan B. Conscription into "National Service" ended in 1960. It was said then that the country was a very different place to 1945. Well it's a considerably different place now.

Gloster · 3 Feb 2024

Enthusiast said:
The opening post (with which I agree in principle, if not in some of the detail) makes the question of conscription largely redundant:

If conscription was introduced in the UK, especially in order to fight a war, the authorities would be spending more time and money chasing refusniks that they would running the war. There is no way that young people in this country would simply turn up at Catterick to have their hair cut and be kitted out with uniforms smelling of mothballs. They would, in extremely large numbers, simply ignore the call to arms. This would be for various reasons, but basically they all boil down to the fact that most of them simply don't fancy the idea.

It's a complete non-starter and if the government ever decides to embark on a war requiring more people than would willingly volunteer, they will need a robust Plan B. Conscription into "National Service" ended in 1960. It was said then that the country was a very different place to 1945. Well it's a considerably different place now.

Strangely, I find my self at least partly in agreement with Enthusiast. Not only would many not be willing to be conscripted, which would leave the government with the dilemma as to whether they devote a lot of ressources to finding the absentees or, if they don’t really bother, see a lot of those who did turn up going AWOL as it doesn’t seem to have any consequences. Nor are the forces going to be particularly keen on having to train and maintain the discipline of an unwilling bunch of stroppy youngsters. The conscripts of the 1940s and 1950s (mostly) accepted that they had to go through it and kept their heads down: it was a more deferential era and they had lived through a ‘necessary’ or ‘just’ war. There must also be a concern about those who would turn up voluntarily: would they consist of rabid nutters who just want to get hold of a gun and shoot somebody, preferably a foreigner, or would they just be looking for a new variety of criminality?

With the nature of modern war we no longer need a massive infantry army which, in effect, primarily only existed to put the ‘boots on ground’ in invaded or occupied countries. Such a force would not be deployed as it almost certainly would get wiped out pretty quickly: military operations are going to be long-distance and high-tec. We already have enough soldiers to meet any ‘boots on ground’ fighting and there are properly trained to cope with as many of the possible hazards as it is possible to plan for. A small number of specialists may need to be added, but with the way that current governments act they would probably be supplied by Crapita on expensive contracts. (“Russia? Oh, we thought you said Rusper. Yes, sorry about Gatwick Airport, but Crawley’s no loss.”)

najaB · 3 Feb 2024

Enthusiast said:
It was said then that the country was a very different place to 1945. Well it's a considerably different place now.

If things got to the point that the authorities needed conscripts, then it stands to reason that the country would be very different too - probably large parts of it would be rubble.

Gloster said:
We already have enough soldiers to meet any ‘boots on ground’ fighting...

Ten years ago, maybe, but the British Army is no longer large enough to be an effective fighting force anywhere outside our borders (or maybe France).

birchesgreen · 3 Feb 2024

najaB said:
If things got to the point that the authorities needed conscripts, then it stands to reason that the country would be very different too - probably large parts of it would be rubble.

Probably a bit late by then anyway.

azOOOOOma · 3 Feb 2024

Enthusiast said:
The opening post (with which I agree in principle, if not in some of the detail) makes the question of conscription largely redundant:

If conscription was introduced in the UK, especially in order to fight a war, the authorities would be spending more time and money chasing refusniks that they would running the war. There is no way that young people in this country would simply turn up at Catterick to have their hair cut and be kitted out with uniforms smelling of mothballs. They would, in extremely large numbers, simply ignore the call to arms. This would be for various reasons, but basically they all boil down to the fact that most of them simply don't fancy the idea.

It's a complete non-starter and if the government ever decides to embark on a war requiring more people than would willingly volunteer, they will need a robust Plan B. Conscription into "National Service" ended in 1960. It was said then that the country was a very different place to 1945. Well it's a considerably different place now.

I must admit I’m feeling a bit more sanguine when it comes to my chances of being called up. I’d certainly be one of those refuseniks and I’d have to be dragged kicking and screaming. Particularly if it means being flown to some third world dump where we’d just be replacing one bad bar steward with a much worse one, then completely destabilising the places as recent history has shown.

If it were a domestic protection thing and protecting the country, our borders and our shores than maybe I’d be less resistant. But still vehemently against it.

Mogster · 3 Feb 2024

Iskra said:
The Italian campaign did degenerate to that level, with similar casualty levels. It did of course produce a sizeable mutiny too, although the sentences weren’t too harsh for most from memory.

Just as challenging were casualty levels in the Bomber forces, where morale was a real problem during the more difficult years for those forces.

Yes. The Italian campaign seems to have been horrific. Some of the commonwealth units involved had inexperienced and poor commanders that made things worse. Attention was shifting to France by early 1944.

There was an attempted mutiny on board the MV Brisbane Star during the Operation Pedestal Malta Convoy. The ship was damaged by a torpedo and had fallen behind the others and was left alone. Some of the Merchant Navy crew stormed the bridge demanding the ship be scuttled and they head to Vichy N Africa in the lifeboats. The incident was short lived but reported to the Admiralty when the ship arrived at Malta. On arriving in the UK the crew were detained on-board and told to sign the official secrets act, the ship was searched by MI5 for written materials pertaining to the mutiny. A junior officer who attempted to smuggle his diary off ship ended up with 10 years In prison I seem to remember.

yorkie · 3 Feb 2024

azOOOOOma said:
I must admit I’m feeling a bit more sanguine when it comes to my chances of being called up. I’d certainly be one of those refuseniks and I’d have to be dragged kicking and screaming. Particularly if it means being flown to some third world dump where we’d just be replacing one bad bar steward with a much worse one, then completely destabilising the places as recent history has shown.

If it were a domestic protection thing and protecting the country, our borders and our shores than maybe I’d be less resistant. But still vehemently against it.

I'm sorry to hear this is causing you worry.

Unfortunately I can see that me telling you not to worry hasn't helped; that's understandable, and I don't really know what else to say, because it's already been said.

Sometimes our perceptions of reality can be shaped by what we read in the media; as mentioned in another thread where people think that crime is going up constantly (and have thought that for many decades). The reality and our perception of reality may not always be the same thing.

azOOOOOma · 3 Feb 2024

I, definitely better than I was. People like yourself, others on here and a few ex-military pilots I flew with when I was cabin crew, plus my family have calmed me down a bit, for which I’m very thankful.

I’m definitely a bit of a catastrophiser!

Laura x

Iskra · 3 Feb 2024

I don’t believe anybody, including the military, wants conscription. But, if we ignore that briefly- who’s paying for it? The cost and economic disruption would be enormous. Like most things, when someone works out the price, it will get binned off unless the UK is genuinely under an existential threat, which it is not and is unlikely to ever be via conventional forces.
We have a very good anti-tank ditch after all.

In terms of worrying, I’d avoid TV news and print media- it is based on negativity and hysteria, it’s not healthy. If you must stay informed, use the website versions where you control what you engage with and have time to think critically about it and check other sources if needed.

azOOOOOma · 3 Feb 2024

Who will pay will be white working class males. They’ll be most likely to be killed or maimed and given the least support. Just like Covid it’s the working classes who’ll also suffer the long term economic hardship too…

Mogster · 3 Feb 2024

azOOOOOma said:
Who will pay will be white working class males. They’ll be most likely to be killed or maimed and given the least support. Just like Covid it’s the working classes who’ll also suffer the long term economic hardship too…

If you had a reserved occupation you wouldn’t be called up, so engineers, doctors, farmers, bakers, railwaymen etc had the option to stay at home.

What you were left with in the WW2 conscript army, after the people that volunteered who tended to opt for the navy or RAF, was an eclectic mix of non reserved occupations so you have teachers, entertainers, academics, bankers, artists, gardeners, accountants, writers, pro sports people etc. Some of these seem important enough to be reserved but it was thought that the country could rely on the older generation, teachers and bankers for instance.

Eyersey468 · 3 Feb 2024

azOOOOOma said:
I, definitely better than I was. People like yourself, others on here and a few ex-military pilots I flew with when I was cabin crew, plus my family have calmed me down a bit, for which I’m very thankful.

I’m definitely a bit of a catastrophiser!

Laura x

I'm glad to hear you are better than you were. Conscription would be an absolute last resort, the press are very good at exaggeration and twisting peoples words to cause panic and worry.

Starmill · 3 Feb 2024

I think the reason why these things are more difficult to let go of is because although the point raised is not worth worrying about, there is a grain of truth in the principle behind it. The risks of aggression, especially against NATO, from Russia / Belarus is something which is a very well-founded concern. It's absolutely right to want confidence of the UK's stance in the event of that escalation. That doesn't mean conscription, but it's unlikely to mean anything good either.

Gloster · 3 Feb 2024

Mogster said:
If you had a reserved occupation you wouldn’t be called up, so engineers, doctors, farmers, bakers, railwaymen etc had the option to stay at home.

What you were left with in the WW2 conscript army, after the people that volunteered who tended to opt for the navy or RAF, was an eclectic mix of non reserved occupations so you have teachers, entertainers, academics, bankers, artists, gardeners, accountants, writers, pro sports people etc. Some of these seem important enough to be reserved but it was thought that the country could rely on the older generation, teachers and bankers for instance.

Plenty of people who were in reserved occupations wangled their way out as they felt that they ought to or that joining the services was more exciting than doing whatever they were doing. There were all sorts of jobs that were needed to keep the system working, so even people like taxmen and council clerks could be exempt. However, if somebody else, such as someone coming back from retirement or been discharged by the forces was available, you could be released; this was sometimes abused by employers to get rid of people who they didn’t want, rather than those who would make the best soldiers. Lots of people wanted to be in the RAF as flying still seemed to be exciting, so there was never really a shortage of airmen and they could (to a certain extent) pick and chose. The Navy also had plenty of volunteers, but if you wanted to get out of civvy life into it you had to volunteer for the Marines or the Fleet Air Arm. The Army was building up to the largest it had been except in 1918, so it just took everybody offered.

The reserved occupation was a realisation that the if you were a skilled draughtsman, trained lathe operator or experienced laboratory assistant you were much more use continuing in your civilian job to supply the weapons that were needed. They didn’t want to make the error of the First War and have to take a few years rebuilding the skills lost to the forces. I believe that there were around 80,000 names on the list of those in reserved occupations on 1939.

If things do blow up I think it will be the other way round: a short list of technical skills that they require and the possible use of some form of conscription to, if necessary, force those with them to use them as directed if there aren’t enough volunteers. As there will probably be a rush of volunteers that will be far in excess of the modest numbers needed for general duties, they will be able to pick and chose enough stupid boys to act as a sort of glorified Home Guard to release professionals. But I doubt it would come to that.

Iskra · 4 Feb 2024

azOOOOOma said:
Who will pay will be white working class males. They’ll be most likely to be killed or maimed and given the least support. Just like Covid it’s the working classes who’ll also suffer the long term economic hardship too…

Junior officers (which in both World Wars were probably not generally working class, although possibly they were more so towards the end of the Second World War), had the highest casualty rates of any rank.

Many working-class occupations such as coal miners, railwaymen and steelworkers were exempt from conscription.

If there was a major conflict; pools of volunteers have always been exhausted before conscription has been resorted to, so again I wouldn’t worry about it.

MP33 · 4 Feb 2024

My Father worked in light engineering, a reserved occupation. He told me that if you volunteered and gave false details, you might last a few days and then be sent home.

I have heard that former members of the International Brigade in the Spanish civil war, when volunteering in 1939 where immediately rejected.

DustyBin · 4 Feb 2024

Starmill said:
I think the reason why these things are more difficult to let go of is because although the point raised is not worth worrying about, there is a grain of truth in the principle behind it. The risks of aggression, especially against NATO, from Russia / Belarus is something which is a very well-founded concern. It's absolutely right to want confidence of the UK's stance in the event of that escalation. That doesn't mean conscription, but it's unlikely to mean anything good either.

I agree.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a degree of “nudging” going on here to be honest. We need to increase our defence budget, and the money needs to come from somewhere; as it stands, raising it via taxation or diverting it from elsewhere is probably deemed unpalatable, politically. If people start to believe the alternative involves being sent to the frontline, I suspect opinions will quickly change…

MP33 · 4 Feb 2024

Something that used to start circulating at times of conflict, Falklands, Bosnia, The Gulf Wars. Was a prank document you would send to someone which was joke call up papers. Anyone taking time to read it could see if was a joke when it advised bringing brown trousers with you.

azOOOOOma · 4 Feb 2024

I genuinely didn’t know that. Every day is a school day I guess! I was just looking to Russia and noted that it’s white working class males from regional Russia - not the educated, city dwellers of Moscow or St Petersburg. I assumed the same would apply should we end up with conscription.

Laura x

DustyBin · 4 Feb 2024

azOOOOOma said:
I genuinely didn’t know that. Every day is a school day I guess! I was just looking to Russia and noted that it’s white working class males from regional Russia - not the educated, city dwellers of Moscow or St Petersburg. I assumed the same would apply should we end up with conscription.

Laura x

It’s a rather different situation. Putin needs to maintain a sense of normality in Moscow and St Petersburg, so conscripting the locals wouldn’t be a good idea. Additionally, with corruption being so rife anyone with the means can simply bribe the relevant officials.

gg1 · 4 Feb 2024

Mogster said:
What you were left with in the WW2 conscript army, after the people that volunteered who tended to opt for the navy or RAF, was an eclectic mix of non reserved occupations so you have teachers, entertainers, academics, bankers, artists, gardeners, accountants, writers, pro sports people etc. Some of these seem important enough to be reserved but it was thought that the country could rely on the older generation, teachers and bankers for instance.

Most reserved occupations in WW2 also had an age requirement, as outlined in this document , Schedule of Reserved Occupations, January 1939.

Taking some of the example listed, Teacher was a reserved occupation at age 25, Accountant at age 30 and Gardener at 25, below these ages a person in these professions would be conscripted. Scanning through the lengthy list of occupation, I'd guess there are at least 4 times as many which would be reserved occupations for a 30 year old than would be the case for an 18 year old.

Mogster said:
If you had a reserved occupation you wouldn’t be called up, so engineers, doctors, farmers, bakers, railwaymen etc had the option to stay at home.

They didn't have the option to stay at home, they were compelled to. If someone who happened to be in a reserved occupation attempted to join up they would be rejected, as happened to my grandfather.

Conscription.

Member

RailUK Forums

Member

Member

Veteran Member

Member

Veteran Member

Member

Member

Established Member

Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Member

Member

Forum Staff

Member

Established Member

Member

Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Member

Established Member

Member

Member

Established Member

Established Member