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Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

DarloRich

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A lot of younger people side with Palestinians plight over Israeli action but aren't Hamas supporters yet they being labelled ant sematic because they are negative around Israel.
they aren't though are they? They are being labelled anti sematic for expressing potentially anti sematic statements. I maintain many on the left do not think that Jews can be victims. They see them as controlling the world. Oh, hang on.................

From the river to the s........ oh hang on x 2

This isn't right and treads all over the free speech that Starmer ascribes to and it isn't healthy
As we should all know: free speech has consequence.

nor necessary as he has expunged the Corbyn fraternity very effectively.
Not effectively enough. Yet.
 
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ainsworth74

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No prospective Labour voter is presumably going to buy the Mail anyway.

Sure, but the Mail and the right wing press do drive a lot of our political conversation. Their headlines and articles get covered by the likes of the BBC and Sky News on their nightly "Tomorrow's front pages" discussion shows. They get tweeted and retweeted by all sorts of people. And so on and so on. Whilst the influence of the media can be overstated it would be unwise to suggest that it will have no impact because a "prospective Labour voter won't by them".

Back to today's Mail if you go a bit further you come across the opening to today's Stephen Glover column:

Coloumn.jpg

The term 'Fifth Column' originated in the Spanish Civil War (1936 - 1939). It refers to a clandestine group of people who attempt to undermine a nation's solidarity from within, on behalf of another nation or enemy.

During the Cold War there was a small Fifth Column, concentrated in MI6 and the Foreign Office, and represented in the wider reaches of the trade union movement. Their first loyalty was to the Soviet Union instead of their own country.

Is there now a Fifth Coloumn wihtin the Labour Party, whose primary allegiance is neither to Labour nor Britain - a collection of people united by hatred of Isreal and a strong, though largely covert, support for a 'Free Palestine'?

If the existence of such a faction were established, that would be a bad news for Sir Keir Starmer. It would suggest that Labour is not an exclusively national party and that the sympathies of some of its MPs and supporters - a minority, to be sure, but an influential one - lie beyond our shores.

Have we got there yet? Not quite. But there's no doubt about the severity of the crisis facing Sir Keir. He told us that the anti-Semitism which disfigured the Labour Party during the Corbyn era had been excised. It's now clear that the operation was cosmetic.

[...]

That last paragraph in particularly is instructive I think. It seems clear that the Mail and similar are going to do everything that they can to paint a "same old Corbynite Labour" type narrative (see also the attacks along the lines of "Starmer served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and campaigned for him in 2019") which is, obviously, rubbish as the Corbynite wing of the party is furious with Starmer's response to the present Israel - Hamas war. But for those that are less politically switched on? That don't pay as much attention? Will they know that that's the case? Or will they see a general trend of stories saying that Labour is enamoured in yet another antisemitism scandal and draw their own conclusions?

Arguably Beergate was a creation of the Daily Mail's relentless campaign of front pages to suggest that something criminal had happened. Compare and contrast with its relentless campaign of frontpages that Partygate, meanwhile, was a nothing burger.

With that in mind it's hardly surprising that Starmer and Labour are doing everything in their power to deflect any accusation of antisemitism.
 

nw1

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Sure, but the Mail and the right wing press do drive a lot of our political conversation. Their headlines and articles get covered by the likes of the BBC and Sky News on their nightly "Tomorrow's front pages" discussion shows. They get tweeted and retweeted by all sorts of people. And so on and so on. Whilst the influence of the media can be overstated it would be unwise to suggest that it will have no impact because a "prospective Labour voter won't by them".

Back to today's Mail if you go a bit further you come across the opening to today's Stephen Glover column:

View attachment 152369



That last paragraph in particularly is instructive I think. It seems clear that the Mail and similar are going to do everything that they can to paint a "same old Corbynite Labour" type narrative (see also the attacks along the lines of "Starmer served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and campaigned for him in 2019") which is, obviously, rubbish as the Corbynite wing of the party is furious with Starmer's response to the present Israel - Hamas war. But for those that are less politically switched on? That don't pay as much attention? Will they know that that's the case? Or will they see a general trend of stories saying that Labour is enamoured in yet another antisemitism scandal and draw their own conclusions?

Arguably Beergate was a creation of the Daily Mail's relentless campaign of front pages to suggest that something criminal had happened. Compare and contrast with its relentless campaign of frontpages that Partygate, meanwhile, was a nothing burger.

With that in mind it's hardly surprising that Starmer and Labour are doing everything in their power to deflect any accusation of antisemitism.

Is it me or is there some implicit sympathy towards the Nationalist side in the Spanish Civil War in that column, and an implicit belief that one should always support one's nation state, even if that nation state is doing wrong? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but to me it's coming across that way.

"Fifth columnist" to me sounds like an abusive term used against people who do not display undying loyalty to their nation, but I suppose it's what you expect from the Daily Mail.
 
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najaB

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they aren't though are they? They are being labelled anti sematic for expressing potentially anti sematic statements.
Surely you can see the problem there? Labelling someone as X because their statements are potentially X.

Using that logic it is impossible to be critical of the Israeli government without being antisemitic.
 

Norm_D_Ploom

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Is it me or is there some implicit sympathy towards the Nationalist side in the Spanish Civil War in that column, and an implicit belief that one should always support one's nation state, even if that nation state is doing wrong? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but to me it's coming across that way.

"Fifth columnist" to me sounds like an abusive term used against people who do not display undying loyalty to their nation, but I suppose it's what you expect from the Daily Mail.
The 5th column were so named by a nationalist general as the one that would play the biggest part in gaining victory in Madrid.

Of course Franco never took Madrid, although whether he actually wanted to is another issue.
 

Yew

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this doesn't seem correct. Starmer has had to take a hard line on this because he should and because clown Corbyn wouldn't.
Wasn't there evidence that the right-wing of the party actively frustrated efforts to deal with Anti-Semitisim whilst Corbyn was in charge, as the Leader had no direct power to sanction members?
 

D6130

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What are the (loyal) Labour canvassers doing in Rochdale? Handing out leaflets for the Liberal candidate?
Quite by chance, I ended up talking with independent candidate Mike Howarth in a pub in Rochdale last Saturday....and he seemed quite confident that he would take quite a lot of disillusioned labour votes in the by-election, as he is Rochdale born and bred and a well-respected local self-made businessman. We shall see!
 

brad465

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Well the recent bad news dogging Labour hasn't stopped them winning the Kingswood by-election. The Wellingborough result hasn't been declared yet, but sources are confident of a Labour win here too at time of writing:


Kingswood results in full​

Here is the breakdown of the Kingswood by-election in full:
  • Labour: 11,176
  • Conservatives: 8,675
  • Reform UK: 2,578
  • Green Party: 1,450
  • Liberal Democrats: 861
  • UKIP: 129
 

STINT47

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Now confirmed that Labour have won Wellingborough. The general election really is looking good for Labour unless they spectacularly mess it up.
 

The Ham

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Well the recent bad news dogging Labour hasn't stopped them winning the Kingswood by-election. The Wellingborough result hasn't been declared yet, but sources are confident of a Labour win here too at time of writing:


Labour 11,176
Combined number for Tory/Reform 11,253

Although if Reform wasn't there how many would have switched to UKIP is unknown.

None the less Labour must be liking the fact that it's no longer the centre and left parties which have a split in people voting for them...

Sure, but the Mail and the right wing press do drive a lot of our political conversation. Their headlines and articles get covered by the likes of the BBC and Sky News on their nightly "Tomorrow's front pages" discussion shows. They get tweeted and retweeted by all sorts of people. And so on and so on. Whilst the influence of the media can be overstated it would be unwise to suggest that it will have no impact because a "prospective Labour voter won't by them".

Back to today's Mail if you go a bit further you come across the opening to today's Stephen Glover column:

View attachment 152369



That last paragraph in particularly is instructive I think. It seems clear that the Mail and similar are going to do everything that they can to paint a "same old Corbynite Labour" type narrative (see also the attacks along the lines of "Starmer served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and campaigned for him in 2019") which is, obviously, rubbish as the Corbynite wing of the party is furious with Starmer's response to the present Israel - Hamas war. But for those that are less politically switched on? That don't pay as much attention? Will they know that that's the case? Or will they see a general trend of stories saying that Labour is enamoured in yet another antisemitism scandal and draw their own conclusions?

Arguably Beergate was a creation of the Daily Mail's relentless campaign of front pages to suggest that something criminal had happened. Compare and contrast with its relentless campaign of frontpages that Partygate, meanwhile, was a nothing burger.

With that in mind it's hardly surprising that Starmer and Labour are doing everything in their power to deflect any accusation of antisemitism.

Of course it's entirely possible that other parties have links to other potentially hostile forces - for example there's quite a few questions over Russian involvement with the Tory party.

As with all things the issues with Israel/Palestine are complex. For example it's entirely reasonable that Israel responded to the attack on them, however it's also reasonable for people to question if they have been heavy handed in that response.

There will certainly be some, who are anti-Semitic who will say that the response has been heavy handed, although that certainly isn't the case for everyone who say it. The difficulty is trying to work out what their overall views are from just what they say about the current situation.

Whilst it doesn't have the same historical sensitivities, some are too strong in their support for Israel even though the international court has required them to ensure that they are not carrying out genocide against Palestine.

Some of that support will start from a reasonable assumption - that because of the persecution of the Jews in Europe during the second world war (and whilst Germany went far far further than anywhere else there was quite a lot of ill feeling towards them across Europe at the time) that they should be able to have their own state (even if there's an argument that by doing so it resolves the issue by not having to deal with the underlying issue in that by moving Jews away from those who dislike them those who dislike them don't actually have to change what they think).

Likewise, it's not unreasonable for people to be concerned that the attack by Hamas was aided by other parties (for example it's massively helped the Russians, in that there's less support within the US for Ukraine whilst the spotlight is elsewhere - whether there was direct aid from Russia it's been said that was unlikely, but add the links from both to Iran and it's not impossible that there could be some linked help, even if that was as simple as Russian money buying Iranian weapons which gives Iran more money to fund the likes of Hamas - of course it's easy to end up down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories if you go looking) and so wish to bring down the Axis of Evil (which was a phase used after 911, and whilst not directly used there's the potential for it to be implied).

Therefore, it's reasonable to understand why America is a natural ally with Israel, in that the US was attacked by an Islamic group (as well as losing a lot of "brave Americans" in Afghanistan) and Hamas are also Islamic (given that many won't go beyond the basics in their day to day thinking, for example not knowing that there's quite a few Christians on both sides of the divide, it can have an impact on the national response even if those at the top have a broader understanding).
 
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AM9

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Surely you can see the problem there? Labelling someone as X because their statements are potentially X.

Using that logic it is impossible to be critical of the Israeli government without being antisemitic.
Shades of 'Minority Report' pre-crime there. o_O
 

Acfb

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The swing from Conservative to Labour in Wellingborough is 2nd largest ever in terms of Con to Lab swing (28.5%), it didn't quite beat the 29.1% swing in Dudley West in 1994.

I thought the swing in Kingswood was pretty underwhelming for Labour though and it suggests Jacob Rees Mogg is pretty likely to hold his seat in the general election.
 

DynamicSpirit

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The swing from Conservative to Labour in Wellingborough is 2nd largest ever in terms of Con to Lab swing (28.5%), it didn't quite beat the 29.1% swing in Dudley West in 1994.

I thought the swing in Kingswood was pretty underwhelming for Labour though and it suggests Jacob Rees Mogg is pretty likely to hold his seat in the general election.

My first thought when I saw the smaller Kingswood swing was to wonder if Labour's bad headlines over the Rochdale candidate have had some impact. Wellingborough was a bigger swing but that could've been influenced by anger over all the Peter Bone stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other reason why Kingswood would have produced a smaller swing than most other recent by-elections. Are there any big local issues? Has Labour done anything unpopular in the area?

In Wellingborough, the drop in the Tory vote was extraordinary: They went from 32 277 votes in 2019 to just 7 408 yesterday - less than a quarter as many votes, although turnout will have played a part in that.
 

jfollows

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My first thought when I saw the smaller Kingswood swing was to wonder if Labour's bad headlines over the Rochdale candidate have had some impact. Wellingborough was a bigger swing but that could've been influenced by anger over all the Peter Bone stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other reason why Kingswood would have produced a smaller swing than most other recent by-elections. Are there any big local issues? Has Labour done anything unpopular in the area?
Most of the recent byelections have been provoked by the sitting Conservative MP "misbehaving" and then - in many cases - refusing to resign and having to be forced out of office. Kingswood was the exception in which the sitting MP left on a "point of principle" and did so relatively quietly and without fuss. I think it's more about what the Conservatives did which was unpopular in the area rather than what Labour did.
 

najaB

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Most of the recent byelections have been provoked by the sitting Conservative MP "misbehaving" and then - in many cases - refusing to resign and having to be forced out of office. Kingswood was the exception in which the sitting MP left on a "point of principle" and did so relatively quietly and without fuss. I think it's more about what the Conservatives did which was unpopular in the area rather than what Labour did.
I don't disagree. But the question that's currently unanswered is if voters were dissatisfied with those particular Conservative candidates or with the Conservative government in general.
 

ainsworth74

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My first thought when I saw the smaller Kingswood swing was to wonder if Labour's bad headlines over the Rochdale candidate have had some impact.
Yes that could certainly be the case. The other suggestion I've seen is that it's punishment for ditching the £28bn pledge from Green leaning voters. Apparently there's been quite a lot of people moving from Bristol (quite a good place for the Greens generally) who would obviously be quite disappointed in that U-Turn and therefore have voted (or stayed home) accordingly.
 

jfollows

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Yes that could certainly be the case. The other suggestion I've seen is that it's punishment for ditching the £28bn pledge from Green leaning voters. Apparently there's been quite a lot of people moving from Bristol (quite a good place for the Greens generally) who would obviously be quite disappointed in that U-Turn and therefore have voted (or stayed home) accordingly.
That resonates, I have to agree. I've previously said that I'm no longer voting for Labour in the next election in Tatton, but I'm voting against the Conservatives, which may still mean I'm going to tick the Labour box. But I want Labour to stand for something different than the rotten incumbents, and the message to me from this reversed pledge is "more of the same". Northern Powerhouse Rail again.
 
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geoffk

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No comments yet about the Lib Dems' poor performance. They often do well in by-elections. Is this because of their leader's lack of appeal or are the two seats not really Lib Dem territory? I grew up in Bristol so am familiar with Kingswood but don't have any local knowledge of Wellingborough. Some tactical voting will have gone on so Lib Dem voters presumably switched to Labour or Green.
 
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Reform did relatively well in kingswood considering UKIP didnt stand last time. They arent in winning terrority but they are in the position to split the right wing vote and twist the knife in the tories further
 

gg1

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No comments yet about the Lib Dems' poor performance. They often do well in by-elections. Is this because of their leader's lack of appeal or are the two seats not really Lib Dem territory? I grew up in Bristol so am familiar with Kingswood but don't have any local knowledge of Wellingborough. Some tactical voting will have gone on so Lib Dem voters presumably switched to Labour or Green.
Predominantly tactical voting.

If you look at the results of the 10 Tory by-election losses this parliament, 9 of them saw the anti-Tory vote coalesce behind one of Labour or the Lib Dems with the other party seeing a decrease in their share of the vote. Mid-Bedfordshire was the only one where both Labour and the Lib Dems increased their share of the vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)
 

Kite159

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Now confirmed that Labour have won Wellingborough. The general election really is looking good for Labour unless they spectacularly mess it up.
And of course results in a bi-election are meaningless when turnout is low.

But when the option is a vote between eating poo or drinking vomit, a low turnout is to be expected.
 

nw1

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"Let's hold another referendum" was one of them.

Not entirely invalid, after all 2016 is now history, just like 1975 was history in 2016. But I won't go down that rabbit hole...

My understanding of the Lib Dems is that they are more socially liberal, but slightly more economically conservative, than Labour.

My first thought when I saw the smaller Kingswood swing was to wonder if Labour's bad headlines over the Rochdale candidate have had some impact. Wellingborough was a bigger swing but that could've been influenced by anger over all the Peter Bone stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other reason why Kingswood would have produced a smaller swing than most other recent by-elections. Are there any big local issues? Has Labour done anything unpopular in the area?

In Wellingborough, the drop in the Tory vote was extraordinary: They went from 32 277 votes in 2019 to just 7 408 yesterday - less than a quarter as many votes, although turnout will have played a part in that.

Could also be that Skidmore was relatively well regarded locally, hence less anger towards the Tories in that constituency than average. Given he resigned on a point of principle, I think there's a good chance that was the case.
 

Acfb

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And of course results in a bi-election are meaningless when turnout is low.

But when the option is a vote between eating poo or drinking vomit, a low turnout is to be expected.

I think the Tories will win back some by elections in the general election: definitely Mid Bedfordshire as the Labour winner is fighting Hitchin instead, possibly Tamworth and maybe Chesham and Amersham and N Shropshire from the Lib Dems.

Their result in Wellingborough was so crushingly bad for the Tories though that I now think Labour is probably virtually certain to hold that in the general election even if the polls narrow substantially and they regain some votes from Reform.
 

Gloster

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I have more than a suspicion that once the election is called there will be discussions between the Conservatives and Reform, which will result in Reform withdrawing its candidates in those seats that the Conservatives fear losing because of the presence of a Reform candidate. In exchange Reform will get concessions that they can use at the following general election, which might be sooner than expected if they save enough Conservative seats: it is probably not worth demanding things after this general election. Alternatively, they might just grift.
 

Thirteen

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The Lib Dems normally do well in the well heeled seats which is why I can see them take traditional Tory seats like Esher in the next election Wimbledon is 50/50 since it hasn't solely been a Tory seat.
 

edwin_m

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Most of the recent byelections have been provoked by the sitting Conservative MP "misbehaving" and then - in many cases - refusing to resign and having to be forced out of office. Kingswood was the exception in which the sitting MP left on a "point of principle" and did so relatively quietly and without fuss. I think it's more about what the Conservatives did which was unpopular in the area rather than what Labour did.
In Wellingborough, not only was the MP misbehaving but the candidate to be his successor was his girlfriend, and I'd guess many voters would see that as a slap in the face. Possibly for this reason, or maybe just because they knew they would lose and need to keep the funds for the big one in a few months, the central party organisation seems to have given up on campaigning there. So the swing was probably at the upper limit of what might be seen elsewhere.
Predominantly tactical voting.

If you look at the results of the 10 Tory by-election losses this parliament, 9 of them saw the anti-Tory vote coalesce behind one of Labour or the Lib Dems with the other party seeing a decrease in their share of the vote. Mid-Bedfordshire was the only one where both Labour and the Lib Dems increased their share of the vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)
In mid-Bedfordshire there was initially some doubt about whether the LibDems would be the best option for anti-Tory tactical votes, similar to earlier by-elections where they were third but had a a better chance of picking up disillusioned Tory voters than Labour did. It seems that later in the campaign it became clearer that Labour would be the main challenger, and this may have influenced the tactical voting choice in somewhere like Wellingborough where the demographic looks a bit similar.
 

gg1

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In mid-Bedfordshire there was initially some doubt about whether the LibDems would be the best option for anti-Tory tactical votes, similar to earlier by-elections where they were third but had a a better chance of picking up disillusioned Tory voters than Labour did. It seems that later in the campaign it became clearer that Labour would be the main challenger, and this may have influenced the tactical voting choice in somewhere like Wellingborough where the demographic looks a bit similar.
Now you mention it I do remember those discussions around mid-Beds, including on this forum.
 

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