Passenger numbers heading into spring ‘24

43066 · 24 Feb 2024

Just an observation, really, that passenger numbers seem to have grown strongly since the turn of the year. I boarded a rush hour commuter train from my local station (Chislehurst) into London Bridge earlier this week, and it was full and standing, and indistinguishable from pre Covid.

The long distance operation at my TOC is routinely unpleasantly busy, back to sometimes leaving people behind at weekends, and I gather the local side is also heaving.

Keen to hear others’ experiences. Also, are there any official figures to back this impression up?

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SteveHFC · 24 Feb 2024

I've only been commuting into London (from Leagrave) since August, but there does seem to have been a increase in numbers travelling both ways during the week over the past 6 months.

dk1 · 24 Feb 2024

17:30 Liverpool Street-Norwich is a prime example. Staff have been asking for the Colchester call to be removed once more as crowding has become severe even on a Monday. Recently the catering trolley has been unable to pass through the train and that’s with the higher capacity 745 fleet now. I note from the June timetable change it still has its Colchester stop.

Also the following 17:50 departure is being moved to 18:00 so even more of a gap.

bramling · 24 Feb 2024

43066 said:
Just an observation, really, that passenger numbers seem to have grown strongly since the turn of the year. I boarded a rush hour commuter train from my local station (Chislehurst) into London Bridge earlier this week, and it was full and standing, and indistinguishable from pre Covid.

The long distance operation at my TOC is routinely unpleasantly busy, back to sometimes leaving people behind at weekends, and I rather the local side is also heaving.

Keen to hear others’ experiences. Also, are there any official figures to back this impression up?

I’ve certainly been getting this impression, and I’m also hearing friends moaning about being called back to the office more and more, so clearly the two things are going hand in hand

*However*, just going by the Northern Line, it is still comparatively quiet going in to London at 0800 in the morning. Here there’s a difference compared to the mainline as TFL are essentially running a full 2019-style service, so it’s evident that the trains aren’t filled to capacity in the way they once were. No doubt at least some of these people are travelling either earlier or later rather than not at all.

Fridays seem dead though. I must say I find it astounding how some people now seem to *expect* to work a 4-day week, with no increase in daily hours worked, and still be remunerated as if they were working 5 days.

stuu · 24 Feb 2024

bramling said:
Fridays seem dead though. I must say I find it astounding how some people now seem to *expect* to work a 4-day week, with no increase in daily hours worked, and still be remunerated as if they were working 5 days.

Are they? Aren't a lot of people just working from home on Fridays?

Adrian1980uk · 24 Feb 2024

dk1 said:
17:30 Liverpool Street-Norwich is a prime example. Staff have been asking for the Colchester call to be removed once more as crowding has become severe even on a Monday. Recently the catering trolley has been unable to pass through the train and that’s with the higher capacity 745 fleet now. I note from the June timetable change it still has its Colchester stop.

Also the following 17:50 departure is being moved to 18:00 so even more of a gap.

18:30 was full and standing Thursday so I assume 17:50 was too.
It's alright removing the Colchester call but those passengers will then just be moved to other trains Which I assume are also busy.

trainophile · 24 Feb 2024

Avanti have re-started the station announcements: “This train is expected to be very busy. Customers with flexible tickets may prefer to wait for another service for a more comfortable journey“.

Total waste of air, for one thing they almost always aren’t full, and for another I very much doubt anyone would even consider waiting unless they are physically unable to board. Also, as they make this announcement before nearly every train arriving at some stations, when do you get to board one?

deltic · 24 Feb 2024

Saturday and Sunday passenger numbers are well above pre-COVID levels although it is complicated by the impact of the Elizabeth Line. Weekdays, especially Monday and Friday are well down. However, many TOCs are running fewer trains than pre-COVID so crowding is not down to the same extent at weekdays and it appears it is considerably higher at weekends.

D1537 · 24 Feb 2024

stuu said:
Are they? Aren't a lot of people just working from home on Fridays?

Yes, they are, and people seem to forget that this has been a thing for a good while. Given, it's even more pronounced now, but even before Covid, my morning commute to work along a very busy part of the M6 was always 10 minutes faster on a Friday.

Horizon22 · 24 Feb 2024

A lot of London based-companies have been upping their expected days in the office (often to the consternation of their staff!). For example people working 2-3 days a week from the office are now expected in 4 days a week.

stuu said:
Are they? Aren't a lot of people just working from home on Fridays?

This has been going on for decades.

bramling said:
I’ve certainly been getting this impression, and I’m also hearing friends moaning about being called back to the office more and more, so clearly the two things are going hand in hand

*However*, just going by the Northern Line, it is still comparatively quiet going in to London at 0800 in the morning. Here there’s a difference compared to the mainline as TFL are essentially running a full 2019-style service, so it’s evident that the trains aren’t filled to capacity in the way they once were. No doubt at least some of these people are travelling either earlier or later rather than not at all.

Fridays seem dead though. I must say I find it astounding how some people now seem to *expect* to work a 4-day week, with no increase in daily hours worked, and still be remunerated as if they were working 5 days.

There's going to be a slight difference I think and exactly as it was during Covid; inner and outer London travel remained relatively resilient whilst Home Counties "white-collar jobs" commuting never really fully bounced back after restrictions were removed. With more being required to go in, commuter numbers from places that are anywhere from 30-75 minutes away from London terminals (like Guildford, Oxford, Chelmsford, Tunbridge Wells etc.) will likely see a noticable increase whilst travel on TfL will increase but less so.

There are some noticable exceptions - like the fringes of the Met and Central lines - so I'm sure commuters on the latter are not best pleased facing a more regular commute on a degraded Central line service at present.

dk1 · 24 Feb 2024

Adrian1980uk said:
18:30 was full and standing Thursday so I assume 17:50 was too.
It's alright removing the Colchester call but those passengers will then just be moved to other trains Which I assume are also busy.

Was superb in Anglia days. Norwich left at 17:30 first stop Manningtree with the 17:27 boat train which it overtook doing the honours at Colchester before running non-stop to HPQ. Best ever timetable then had following Norwich departures at 18:00, 18:27, 18:30, 18:42 & 19:00. Any late running caused chaos at Norwich station trying to get sets clear to Crown Point as the TPO occupied platform 3.

Class 170101 · 24 Feb 2024

18:27, 18:30 and 18:42 - three Norwich services in 15 minutes seems a bit overkill

dk1 · 24 Feb 2024

Class 170101 said:
18:27, 18:30 and 18:42 - three Norwich services in 15 minutes seems a bit overkill

Not really. You have to remember AR was in strong competition with GE. The 18:27 was Manningtree, Ipswich, Norwich. The 18:30 Colchester, Ipswich, Stowmarket, Diss. The 18:42 Chelmsford, Colchester, Manningtree, Ipswich. The latter gave AR a huge revenue share simply by stopping at Chelmsford in the peak.

The 18:42 was also operated by a 317 initially until AR gained more class 86s.

Class 170101 · 24 Feb 2024

Better spread of 17:30, 17:50, 18:10, 18:30 though I would say.

Can't see the 17:50 or 18:10 returning though. The fleet strategy says it all there, unless 720s start going to Stansted Airport in lieu of Class 745s or 720s themselves start going to Norwich.

TAS · 24 Feb 2024

Adrian1980uk said:
18:30 was full and standing Thursday so I assume 17:50 was too.
It's alright removing the Colchester call but those passengers will then just be moved to other trains Which I assume are also busy.

As someone who is often on one of those other trains, I can confirm that they are, and increasingly so!

dk1 · 24 Feb 2024

Class 170101 said:
Better spread of 17:30, 17:50, 18:10, 18:30 though I would say.

Can't see the 17:50 or 18:10 returning though. The fleet strategy says it all there, unless 720s start going to Stansted Airport in lieu of Class 745s or 720s themselves start going to Norwich.

Me too but looks like 17:30, 18:00, 18:30 is to become the norm

Economist · 24 Feb 2024

Regularly absolutely rammed in my part of the world, four and five car sets for long-distance intercity work doesn't fit the bill. I've noticed that the car parks are quieter on Mondays and Fridays but any peak or weekend service is usually full and standing and First Class is often declassified.

From a numbers perspective, it's almost as if the pandemic never happened.

Russel · 24 Feb 2024

Tried to get an XC from Tamworth to Birmingham this morning, a 3 car 170 pulled in and there was no physical room for anyone to board, platform staff told everyone to get on the approaching Crewe service and go via Lichfield so a 20 minute journey turned into a 1hr 30min journey.

Adrian1980uk · 25 Feb 2024

dk1 said:
Me too but looks like 17:30, 18:00, 18:30 is to become the norm

For me the 17:50 departure was annoying as in general after I leave the office invariably I'd get to Liverpool St dead on 17:50 so have to get the 18:30.

It'll be interesting in September/October if the 3 trains cope with the numbers of passengers, I suspect there is no opportunity to add an extra service in unless they 'steel' another 745 from Stansted.

bluenoxid · 25 Feb 2024

I would be interested to know how different routes are reacting dependent on the impact of strike action and engineering works on the service.

We have zero trains on strike days and I think we’re stable-ish with a small increase in numbers based on my limited experience.

Snow1964 · 25 Feb 2024

I work part time for company renting out office space, and they have had rush in last few months and now run out of space and have waiting list. So has definitely been a move back to offices.

The sites are less busy on Fridays, but I gather 4 (sometimes 5) days in office (varies by company) is now back as norm.

Our sites are generally driven to, as they are more rural, and nearest stations were all closed in 1960s (long before the old buildings were converted to offices) so might not accurately reflect strike affected rail commuting

Adrian1980uk · 25 Feb 2024

Snow1964 said:
I work part time for company renting out office space, and they have had rush in last few months and now run out of space and have waiting list. So has definitely been a move back to offices.

The sites are less busy on Fridays, but I gather 4 (sometimes 5) days in office (varies by company) is now back as norm.

Our sites are generally driven to, as they are more rural, and nearest stations were all closed in 1960s (long before the old buildings were converted to offices) so might not accurately reflect strike affected rail commuting

I think 3 to 4 days is becoming the norm, my company has changed the language slightly from 3 days to greater than 50% but saying the same thing.

I don't think it'll be long before TOCs start looking at ways to increase capacity again

Iskra · 25 Feb 2024

We are coming out of the traditionally quiet winter months when people are hard up, and it has also been pay day for a lot of people which brings an upsurge in economic activity. The weather is also less wet and windy recently and a bit lighter which may encourage more discretionary leisure travel. Various TOC’s have had promotions on too, which cover this period and we’ve just had half-term which means people travel around more, and pushes business travel into the period after the holidays.

In terms of commuter/business travel I’m now noticing that Monday is quietest. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursdays are busier and Fridays are variable with strong leisure travel and some variable business travel, which can combine to be very busy occasionally but doesn’t always.

The Ham · 25 Feb 2024

In terms of actual numbers it'll not be until 21st March before we get the September to December data, so I'd expect late June before we see the numbers for January to March.

JonathanH · 25 Feb 2024

Adrian1980uk said:
I don't think it'll be long before TOCs start looking at ways to increase capacity again

The elephant in the room is the spare capacity on Fridays, and to a lesser extent on Mondays, and the need to get the railway being used all week, not just on Tuesday to Thursday. There is also the issue of there being higher use on less lucrative short journeys than more lucrative longer journeys. Switching more long distance capacity to short distance journeys doesn't necessarily bring in the same levels of income.

al78 · 25 Feb 2024

I commute from Horsham to Farringdon on Tuesday and Thursday and depending on the time of travel it can be standing room only from Three Bridges to East Croydon or vice versa. Horsham seems to be one of the primary destinations in the evening, I'd estimate at least three quarters of the passengers get off there along with me, and often it is a case of form an orderly queue to get upstairs and off the platform.

Tester · 26 Feb 2024

yorksrob said:
The best way to get the railway used on Friday would be to accept that it is part of the weekend and make it off-peak.

Interestingly Sydney, Australia has done exactly this.

Friday is off peak all day, and the daily cap is the 50% weekend rate.

Snow1964 · 26 Feb 2024

There are regional differences, the most recent ORR regional data covers year to 31 March 2023, so is 11-23 months old data

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/3g5pcn30/regional-rail-usage-apr-2022-mar-2023.pdf

Even using the data from months ago :

North East was 94% of 3 years earlier (before pandemic)
South West 89%
London 85%
East Midlands 83%
Yorkshire & Humber 82%
Wales 79%
East England / Anglia 77%
South East 75%
North West 74%
Scotland 70%
West Midlands 69%

The reasons for it being so uneven is probably for a separate discussion, but what does show is generalisations applying to whole country might be misleading.

Peregrine 4903 · 26 Feb 2024

My experience of the WCML south has been that its been pretty static for the last 6 months. In fact I'd say October last year was the busiest month and since then numbers have dropped a little.

Bald Rick · 27 Feb 2024

Peregrine 4903 said:
My experience of the WCML south has been that its been pretty static for the last 6 months. In fact I'd say October last year was the busiest month and since then numbers have dropped a little.

Yep, that is the typical profile - busiest in October / November (not coincidentally when performance is worst), January is one of the quietest months. The ‘busyness’ people are feeling now is likely to be the usual post Feb half term pick up.

Certainly the current national numbers are several % below the busy period last autumn.

Passenger numbers heading into spring ‘24

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