They are existing journeys - with a change of train of course but they will give an indication of the potential of an improved service.
Indeed. Hull Trains is a good case - even more spectacular (under BR originally) is the Copy Pit route between Yorkshire and Lancashire, from one seasonal train to an hourly service in a few years.
They are only allowed a licence to operate if they can convince ORR that they’ll significantly increase the overall rail market. After that’s agreed they also have to show how they will not be primarily abstractive with respect to existing operators. Both requirements have to be met, but AIUI the increase to the overall market is mandatory..
So, using your figures (whatever the source may be) and then dividing them by the days the railway operated per year gives around 66 people travelling from Grimsby/Cleethorpes to London per day at the moment. Hardly a huge market for any commercial operator to risk anything on.
Hull has approximately 3 times the population of Grimsby. Both places have some additional population in the surrounding areas.
The data is Lennon ticket data. It'll be an underestimate, as it won't include split ticketing occurring at Doncaster. Still it's not going to be huge numbers of people. It certainly could be a viable proposition though if only for a couple of services in each direction per day.
Yes, far too simplistic I’m afraid. The Hull metro area ( including Beverley and the west Hull villages) is significantly bigger and includes a university which generates inbound traffic. The stops at Brough/Howden/Selby generate as much traffic combined as Hull itself, with Brough having the most first class demand due to the wealth in the area - is there an equivalent on the Grimsby route? The biggest asset are the Doncaster/Retford/Grantham stops where HT has really grown the market and tapped into connecting traffic for bigger places like Sheffield and Nottingham. Again, what equivalent would there be for Grimsby?
Trains aren’t plans - they don’t pick up a full load of people in place A to take them all to Place B. They pick people up and drop people off on the way, so that destination population maths is essentially q
The population of North Lincolnshire is 330k. The population of Hull 2011 travel to work area including up to Driffield,Market Weighton, Hornsea, Goole and Howden is 520k. Add Bridlington and Selby and the surronding areas and you're up to around 600k.
This is the main issue which is why extending Lincoln services makes more sense
Most people I know in the area drive to Peterborough as it is felt going via Grantham is well out of the way. A direct service could well attract more. Recently a group of councilors from Sleaford (I know as my neighbour was one of them) ALL drove to Grantham for the London train as they didn`t want to change trains. Looking at present figures is misleading as I feel there is a hidden market
I don't think looking at existing figures is neccesarily misleading. Its likely that they're still relatively proportionate. Growing up in Grimsby, I know that a lot of people drove to Newark to catch London trains.
