Brexit matters

DynamicSpirit · 22 Apr 2024

Snow1964 said:
We have 18-25 year olds, that are having mental health issues due to Brexit (and loss of education due to COVID).

I can understand someone having had mental health issues due to Covid - because that seriously prevented people from leading normal lives or normal socialising/contact with family. But mental health issues due to Brexit? Seriously????

I recall being a teenager and a strong Labour supporter when Mrs. Thatcher won successive elections (that I was too young to vote in). Of course I was very sad but I got on with my life, recognising that disappointment and not always getting what you want is a normal part of life. Should I at the time have instead claimed mental health issues because I didn't like the election results?

RailUK Forums

Snow1964 · 22 Apr 2024

DynamicSpirit said:
I can understand someone having had mental health issues due to Covid - because that seriously prevented people from leading normal lives or normal socialising/contact with family. But mental health issues due to Brexit? Seriously????

I recall being a teenager and a strong Labour supporter when Mrs. Thatcher won successive elections (that I was too young to vote in). Of course I was very sad but I got on with my life, recognising that disappointment and not always getting what you want is a normal part of life. Should I at the time have instead claimed mental health issues because I didn't like the election results?

But you didn't have your future opportunities taken away, and weren't in a period where renting accommodation to work away from home, might be majority of your income instead of nearer quarter to third of income.

If you don't understand how lots of 18-25 year olds have mental issues because of downsides of Brexit, and where economy is now, then you are part of the older denial group.

DynamicSpirit · 22 Apr 2024

Snow1964 said:
We have killed off the cheap rental market by our silly sell off property housing policies, and recent attacks on all landlords discouraging renting out rooms or properties (rather that tackling the few bad landlords who rent seriously sub-standard properties and don't care about tenants).

I actually agree with you to some extent about the things UK Governments have done that have made affordable rooms to rent all but impossible to find in parts of the country, but you seem to have missed that EU membership causing mass immigration was also a huge factor in destroying the supply of cheap rooms to rent.

Snow1964 said:
But you didn't have your future opportunities taken away,

What future opportunities? No-one is, on account of Brexit, getting forcibly denied the chance to train for whatever career they want, applying for and if they are good enough getting employment in that career. Or if they prefer and are dedicated enough, setting up a business to do whatever they want to do. I'm guessing the 'opportunity' you are referring to is the ability to go roaming almost any country in Europe for longer than 90 days at a time without having to *gasp* apply for a visa first. And yes, that's probably disappointing if that's something you wanted to do, but it's no different from how it's always been for most other developed countries. There has never, for example, been FoM to the USA. If I really want to go live there, should I claim mental health issues because I have to apply for a visa first and find a way to meet the visa requirements?

Like I said, not always getting what you want is a normal part of life. There's a difference between something that actually prevents you from even having a normal life (such as Covid lockdowns) and something that simply means you can't get a particular thing that you wanted. It's totally understandable for people to be disappointed when that latter thing happens, but anyone having mental health problems because of that probably needs to reassess their attitude to life.

najaB · 22 Apr 2024

DynamicSpirit said:
I actually agree with you to some extent about the things UK Governments have done that have made affordable rooms to rent all but impossible to find in parts of the country, but you seem to have missed that EU membership causing mass immigration was also a huge factor in destroying the supply of cheap rooms to rent.

Going to call you on this one. Government policy and greedy landlords/developers played a much bigger role than EU membership. In a functional market, supply increases to match demand which keeps prices broadly the same. The reason that house pricing rose wasn't the increase in demand, it was artificial limits placed on supply by our dysfunctional planning system which has been co-opted to ensure that property investors get the maximum return on their investment.

class ep-09 · 22 Apr 2024

E27007 said:
"Under the envisaged agreement, both EU and UK citizens aged between 18 to 30 years would be able to stay for up to 4 years in the destination country, the European Commission said in a detailed statement"

In practical terms restoring the same FoM which swamped the UK with migration after the ascession of the Eastern Europe member states

In return UK “swamped” EU with its sick and ill retirees.

edwin_m · 22 Apr 2024

najaB said:
Going to call you on this one. Government policy and greedy landlords/developers played a much bigger role than EU membership. In a functional market, supply increases to match demand which keeps prices broadly the same. The reason that house pricing rose wasn't the increase in demand, it was artificial limits placed on supply by our dysfunctional planning system which has been co-opted to ensure that property investors get the maximum return on their investment.

Not forgetting that total immigration has increased since Brexit.

The market also works for immigration as a whole. If there are jobs available that pay enough then people will be prepared to immigrate to fill them. But less obviously if wages are low then only immigrants willing to accept a lower standard of living will want to apply. Get rid of that factor by imposing a reasonable miminum wage and the "took our jobs/houses" argument largely disappears, because immigrants will only arrive if there are plenty of jobs to go round.

Enthusiast · 22 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
In return UK “swamped” EU with its sick and ill retirees.

Thus adding another reason why FoM is not, perhaps, such a good idea.

AM9 · 22 Apr 2024

Enthusiast said:
Thus adding another reason why FoM is not, perhaps, such a good idea.

Why is it not good for the UK to allow senior citizens the right to retire (and die) in locations like the sunny costas where the climate is better for their health. It costed the UK no more in pensions yet their demands on the NHS were virtually zero.

class ep-09 · 22 Apr 2024

AM9 said:
Why is it not good for the UK to allow senior citizens the right to retire (and die) in locations like the sunny costas where the climate is better for their health. It costed the UK no more in pensions yet their demands on the NHS were virtually zero.

Because brexiters are opposing FoM … (some of them ).

Funnily , majority of seniors voted for not being able to go to sunny places to retire …

Of course they claim , they knew what they were voting for and I am sure they are happy with their choices.

Enthusiast said:
Thus adding another reason why FoM is not, perhaps, such a good idea.

FoM did not end at all .
it ended for minority of EU citizens wanting to move , work etc in the UK .
In return FoM ended for 100% of British citizens .

UK is first country on Earth deciding to apply economical sanctions agains itself .

No matter how much one dresses it ,and there is plenty advocates of pseudo reasons, why it was “good” idea on this forum - s…t that is brexit remains s…t .

Enthusiast · 22 Apr 2024

AM9 said:
Why is it not good for the UK to allow senior citizens the right to retire (and die) in locations like the sunny costas where the climate is better for their health. It costed the UK no more in pensions yet their demands on the NHS were virtually zero.

It's a very good idea for the UK to kindly allow people whom are no longer wanted and who may cost the Exchequer a bit of money, to head off to die somewhere else. But it's not such a good idea for the recipient nations who have had no benefit from any taxes those people may have paid but who will probably require disproportionately large resources to keep them going in their dotage.

Similarly there were probably quite a number of people - not necessarily pensioners - from other EU countries who settled in the UK under FoM who similarly required disproportionately high resources from the UK's tax pot.

class ep-09 said:
Of course they claim , they knew what they were voting for and I am sure they are happy with their choices.

The likelihood is that the vast majority of them probably did know and probably are happy. Relatively few people retire abroad. However, if they expected FoM to be maintained after Brexit they were foolish.

renegademaster · 22 Apr 2024

E27007 said:
So what is the motive behind the "largesse" of the EU is seeking FoM for the 18 to 30 age group, do they see the UK as a solution to the high rates of structural unemployment of young people in several member states, Portugal Spain Italy etc?

Youth Unemployment % the EU

The conspiracy theorist within me thought that EU leaked the headlines to try and start fighting between Pragmatist Statmer types and avid rejoiners to either try and push Labour towards a more pro EU stance or get the Lib Dems more votes. Or more likely it could just be a good faith attempt at trying to ease us back in

class ep-09 said:
UK is first country on Earth deciding to apply economical sanctions agains itself

UK is hardly the only country to make it immigration or trade policy stricter. Brexit isn't even the first time we left a large free movement block (winding down of privileges for commonwealth citizens in the 60s)

Enthusiast said:
It's a very good idea for the UK to kindly allow people whom are no longer wanted and who may cost the Exchequer a bit of money, to head off to die somewhere

I thought we paid off their health expenses through the EHIC(in exchange for them doing the same back)? And still are eligible for state healthcare at the same terms of locals while in Europe IIRC

DynamicSpirit · 22 Apr 2024

najaB said:
Going to call you on this one. Government policy and greedy landlords/developers played a much bigger role than EU membership. In a functional market, supply increases to match demand which keeps prices broadly the same. The reason that house pricing rose wasn't the increase in demand, it was artificial limits placed on supply by our dysfunctional planning system which has been co-opted to ensure that property investors get the maximum return on their investment.

I'm not sure in what way you think you're calling me out. I've never denied that our dysfunctional planning system is a big factor in the housing shortage. EU immigration under FoM is another big factor. The housing shortage is not something that has only one single cause. But it's not realistic to keep denying the role that population increase has in increasing demand for housing.

Prices match supply and demand. The reason house prices rose was because supply was limited AND demand suddenly and unexpectedly rose. It's not a case of, only one or the other.

AM9 · 22 Apr 2024

Enthusiast said:
It's a very good idea for the UK to kindly allow people whom are no longer wanted and who may cost the Exchequer a bit of money, to head off to die somewhere else. But it's not such a good idea for the recipient nations who have had no benefit from any taxes those people may have paid but who will probably require disproportionately large resources to keep them going in their dotage.

Similarly there were probably quite a number of people - not necessarily pensioners - from other EU countries who settled in the UK under FoM who similarly required disproportionately high resources from the UK's tax pot

Whether we think it is a good idea or not for the recipient countries of our emigres is irrelevant, - the EU on the behalf of member states made it the law in the interests of all member countries.
I think that you will find that there were more UK citizens settling in the rest of the EU that the total of emigre arriving here, - even including those who settled into permanentry employment here. I don't have evidence to that effect but would welcome somebody who does to inform this conversation.

E27007 · 22 Apr 2024

edwin_m said:
Not forgetting that total immigration has increased since Brexit.

The market also works for immigration as a whole. If there are jobs available that pay enough then people will be prepared to immigrate to fill them. But less obviously if wages are low then only immigrants willing to accept a lower standard of living will want to apply. Get rid of that factor by imposing a reasonable miminum wage and the "took our jobs/houses" argument largely disappears, because immigrants will only arrive if there are plenty of jobs to go round.

As explained to me by a Polish worker, the man could earn more money per week by working in the UK than doing the same job for a month in Poland, if the Polish brickie or electrician sends 25% of the earnings back to Poland, then his family will live a life of affluent luxury, that was his motive for coming to the UK.

najaB · 22 Apr 2024

DynamicSpirit said:
I'm not sure in what way you think you're calling me out. I've never denied that our dysfunctional planning system is a big factor in the housing shortage. EU immigration under FoM is another big factor. The housing shortage is not something that has only one single cause. But it's not realistic to keep denying the role that population increase has in increasing demand for housing.

Again, nobody is denying that immigration increased demand - that goes without saying. But supply isn't even sufficient to meet domestic demand through native population growth and demographic changes, immigration only made a bad situation slightly worse.

class ep-09 · 22 Apr 2024

E27007 said:
As explained to me by a Polish worker, the man could earn more money per week by working in the UK than doing the same job for a month in Poland, if the Polish brickie or electrician sends 25% of the earnings back to Poland, then his family will live a life of affluent luxury, that was his motive for coming to the UK.

Probably in years 2004-2010 , but not now. Since brexit vote, £ is worth much less in the EU , and what is worth does not allow for living in a affluent luxury ( it never had ).

Snow1964 · 22 Apr 2024

E27007 said:
As explained to me by a Polish worker, the man could earn more money per week by working in the UK than doing the same job for a month in Poland, if the Polish brickie or electrician sends 25% of the earnings back to Poland, then his family will live a life of affluent luxury, that was his motive for coming to the UK.

This is table of minimum wages in Europe per month
Poland is €978 (about £844)
UK rate is hourly £11.44 which is about €1850 per month

How do minimum wages compare across Europe in 2024?

The EU's new directive aims to set an international level such as 60% of the gross median wage for the minimum wage. It also call for regular revisions to ensure pay levels remain up to date.

www.euronews.com

edwin_m · 22 Apr 2024

E27007 said:
As explained to me by a Polish worker, the man could earn more money per week by working in the UK than doing the same job for a month in Poland, if the Polish brickie or electrician sends 25% of the earnings back to Poland, then his family will live a life of affluent luxury, that was his motive for coming to the UK.

But he wouldn't come to the UK unless there were plenty of jobs available, which there wouldn't be if there were enough UK workers willing and able to do them. The only other motivation is being willing to do the same job for less money, but better policies by the Westminster government on pay regulation and the minimum wage largely address that issue.

E27007 · 22 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
Probably in years 2004-2010 , but not now. Since brexit vote, £ is worth much less in the EU , and what is worth does not allow for living in a affluent luxury ( it never had ).

Agreed, the situation has changed since 2005/10 due to exchnage rate and considerable growth in Poland.
Bulgaria has the situation which applied to Poland, 1 day of work in UK equates to a week or more of work in Bulgaria, it is said that the living standards of someone living in the UK who is long-term unemployed and benefit-dependent are higher than someone in Bulgaria in full employment

Enthusiast · 22 Apr 2024

AM9 said:
I think that you will find that there were more UK citizens settling in the rest of the EU that the total of emigre arriving here, - even including those who settled into permanentry employment here. I don't have evidence to that effect but would welcome somebody who does to inform this conversation.

I think not.

In 2019 around 1.3m people born in the UK were said to live in EU countries:

How many British citizens live in the EU? - UK in a changing Europe

In 2019, according to UN data, 1.3 million people born in the UK lived in EU countries. Read this fact to find out more.

ukandeu.ac.uk

"In 2019, according to UN data, 1.3 million people born in the UK lived in EU countries. Spain hosted the largest group, at 302,000, followed by Ireland, with 293,000. France was third with 177,000, Germany was fourth with 99,000 and Italy was fifth with 66,000."

Are there really 6m EU citizens living in the UK? | National Statistical

blog.ons.gov.uk

"Our latest data, using information from the Annual Population Survey (APS), shows that in mid-2020 there were around 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK, a lot smaller than the 6 million applications for the EU Settlement Scheme. Of course, many who have applied for pre-settled status will have yet to determine where they are going to live in the long term. Also, the scheme has been open for more than 2 years now, and we don’t know how many people who have previously applied for the EUSS no longer live here because they have returned home due to the pandemic or other reasons."

I dare say the numbers have changed since those articles were compiled and I doubt they are entirely accurate anyway. The UK authorities do not seem to have much in the way of an accurate idea of how many people actually live here or where they come from and I suspect EU countries are in much the same boat. However, I imagine the ratio (of about 3:1) is probably reasonably close, allowing for similar "guestimates" on both sides.

najaB · 22 Apr 2024

Enthusiast said:
I dare say the numbers have changed since those articles were compiled and I doubt they are entirely accurate anyway. The UK authorities do not seem to have much in the way of an accurate idea of how many people actually live here or where they come from and I suspect EU countries are in much the same boat. However, I imagine the ratio (of about 3:1) is probably reasonably close, allowing for similar "guestimates" on both sides.

One thing to keep in mind though is that they may be counting dual-citizens and children of immigrants differently.

class ep-09 · 24 Apr 2024

Enthusiast said:
I think not.

In 2019 around 1.3m people born in the UK were said to live in EU countries:

How many British citizens live in the EU? - UK in a changing Europe

In 2019, according to UN data, 1.3 million people born in the UK lived in EU countries. Read this fact to find out more.

ukandeu.ac.uk

"In 2019, according to UN data, 1.3 million people born in the UK lived in EU countries. Spain hosted the largest group, at 302,000, followed by Ireland, with 293,000. France was third with 177,000, Germany was fourth with 99,000 and Italy was fifth with 66,000."

Are there really 6m EU citizens living in the UK? | National Statistical

blog.ons.gov.uk

"Our latest data, using information from the Annual Population Survey (APS), shows that in mid-2020 there were around 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK, a lot smaller than the 6 million applications for the EU Settlement Scheme. Of course, many who have applied for pre-settled status will have yet to determine where they are going to live in the long term. Also, the scheme has been open for more than 2 years now, and we don’t know how many people who have previously applied for the EUSS no longer live here because they have returned home due to the pandemic or other reasons."

I dare say the numbers have changed since those articles were compiled and I doubt they are entirely accurate anyway. The UK authorities do not seem to have much in the way of an accurate idea of how many people actually live here or where they come from and I suspect EU countries are in much the same boat. However, I imagine the ratio (of about 3:1) is probably reasonably close, allowing for similar "guestimates" on both sides.

Comparing numbers of UK citizens living in EU (1.3mil out of 67mil ) and EU citizens (3mil out of 400mil ) living in the UK , it looks that higher percentage of UK citizens prefers to live in the EU than percentage of EU citizens living in the UK.

JamesT · 24 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
Comparing numbers of UK citizens living in EU (1.3mil out of 67mil ) and EU citizens (3mil out of 400mil ) living in the UK , it looks that higher percentage of UK citizens prefers to live in the EU than percentage of EU citizens living in the UK.

That's picking 1 of the 200-odd countries in the world an EU citizen could live in, versus 27 for the UK one. I don't think it's a particularly meaningful metric.

Enthusiast · 24 Apr 2024

JamesT said:
That's picking 1 of the 200-odd countries in the world an EU citizen could live in, versus 27 for the UK one. I don't think it's a particularly meaningful metric.

Indeed not. In any case that was not the claim, which only spoke of absolute numbers.

LNW-GW Joint · 24 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
FoM did not end at all .
it ended for minority of EU citizens wanting to move , work etc in the UK .
In return FoM ended for 100% of British citizens .

UK is first country on Earth deciding to apply economical sanctions agains itself .
No matter how much one dresses it ,and there is plenty advocates of pseudo reasons, why it was “good” idea on this forum - s…t that is brexit remains s…t .

It's telling that the changes (still evolving) deriving from the Withdrawl/Brexit treaties are now routinely referred to as "Brexit freedoms".
eg the extra time you spend in passport queues, the higher prices and extra obstacles to EU trade, and the extra sanitary checks at ports etc are all "Brexit freedoms".
The import checks are supposed to be "protecting the UK from disease and lower animal welfare standards".
These checks were not required up to 2020 so why are they needed now? - because we insisted on WTO rules for trade with the EU.
Tens of thousands of civil servants are needed to staff these new controls, at a time when the government is desperate to reduce the size of the civil service.

The instant rejection of the proposed youth travel scheme is because of the pathological Tory dislike of the ECJ (which we helped set up and run).
The Tories won't contemplate being a "rule-taker" policed by the ECJ, however beneficial the scheme.
Hopefully Kier Starmer will find a more constructive way to build back a better relationship with the EU - but it won't be easy to persuade the Faragiste faction and the Brexit press.
The Express is still busily inventing anti-EU stories and praises every tiny supposed benefit of the Brexit deal.
It is not just satisfied with being outside the EU, it is still anticipating the demise of the EU and its policies (free movement, the euro, ECJ, the Commission etc).

class ep-09 · 24 Apr 2024

JamesT said:
That's picking 1 of the 200-odd countries in the world an EU citizen could live in, versus 27 for the UK one. I don't think it's a particularly meaningful metric.

It is not picking .
The whole brexit issue , as told many times by some on this forum , was about
“ unlimited “ immigration from the EU as a whole , hence comparing numbers of UK immigrants living in the EU to number of EU immigrants living in the UK is a valid one .
The conclusion is : the percentage of UK citizens, who live in the EU is much higher than percentage of EU citizens living in the UK .
Like it or not .

Enthusiast · 24 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
The conclusion is : the percentage of UK citizens, who live in the EU is much higher than percentage of EU citizens living in the UK .

So what? That wasn't what was claimed. This was the claim:

I think that you will find that there were more UK citizens settling in the rest of the EU that the total of emigre arriving here,...

It mentioned nothing about percentages. My conclusion is that the UK has had to accommodate about three times as many EU citizens as the EU has UK citizens, in about one twentieth of the area.

If you want to introduce another argument, you might try examining the percentage of UK citizens living in each individual EU nation (because after all, the EU is not a single nation state -yet) with the percentage of citizens from that country living in he UK. Examples:

Portugal - 268,000 Portuguese live in UK (2.5%); 46,000 Brits live in Portugal (0.07%)
Lithuania - 153,000 Lithuanians live in the UK (5.6%)' 4,500 Brits live in Lithuania (0.01%)

And that's about as useful as your overall percentage.

DynamicSpirit · 24 Apr 2024

class ep-09 said:
It is not picking .
The whole brexit issue , as told many times by some on this forum , was about
“ unlimited “ immigration from the EU as a whole , hence comparing numbers of UK immigrants living in the EU to number of EU immigrants living in the UK is a valid one .

Exactly. You compare the numbers of immigrants. By your own figures, 3M to 1.3M. That difference caused a rapid and unexpected population increase in the UK which put huge pressure on much of our infrastructure: Housing, transport, community facilities, etc. That is the issue! Nothing to do with what % of the EU population that might represent.

najaB · 25 Apr 2024

DynamicSpirit said:
Exactly. You compare the numbers of immigrants. By your own figures, 3M to 1.3M. That difference caused a rapid and unexpected population increase in the UK which put huge pressure on much of our infrastructure

And, as pointed out numerous times before, those immigrants made a bad situation worse. We already didn't have enough houses, schools, hospitals, etc. for the natural population increase and demographic changes. They weren't solely responsible for the pressure of which you speak.

DynamicSpirit · 25 Apr 2024

najaB said:
And, as pointed out numerous times before, those immigrants made a bad situation worse. We already didn't have enough houses, schools, hospitals, etc. for the natural population increase and demographic changes. They weren't solely responsible for the pressure of which you speak.

Does having an already bad situation mean that it's acceptable to make it even worse?

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