Are the class 88's the last locomotives we will see built?

[Photohunter71]

I was just wondering after reading various topics on rolling stock, are the class 88's the last locomotives we will see built? With some 66's hanging around doing nothing, the 70's not having had a great start when introduced, and the 68's being a reasonable success. We did discuss something similar on the subject of will there ever be another type 2/3 locomotive? The answer was in the majority "No there won't be". My curiosity was with the heavy haulers on rail, are we likely to see another diesel or electric heavy hauler introduced in the UK? I suspect not. What do you think?

 

[USRailFan]

Of course. Class 86s might last another 5-10 years, Class 90s another 20? Class 60s might have 10-12 more years, 20 or so for the Class 66s? All of these locos will need replacement eventually. Even the 68s in 35-40 years time.

 

[whhistle]

Or perhaps in less than those timings.
I suspect the emission penalities will only get worse, and thus newer trains would be required to operate services at a cost efficient manner.

 

[richieb1971]

Since the freight sector is privatized (for the most part) its up to the FOC to decide if they want to purchase a new type of locomotive. Personally I believe the emissions rulings are complete and utter tosh. The reason we have emissions rulings for cars is because there are BILLIONS of them in the world. If you make a class of locomotive with today's standards, even if it chucks out the same garbage a 56 does, or a 37, there are only going to be 50 of them, maybe 100! Its hardly going to change the world. Lets say tomorrow all cars are electric and the locomotives of the world are the only things chucking out emissions. The world will still be cleaner than it ever has been in the industrial age. Most people will go their whole lives without even seeing the locomotives.

Years ago Norton Motorcycles applied for a racing permit for a rotary engine motorcycle to race with. It chucked out lots of crap, but because only 2 or 3 were going to be racing the permit was allowed. The street capable version of the bike was modified however. Diesel trains should have emission controls within closed in stations like Birmingham New street. But when the train leaves for open ground it should be allowed to open up.

 

[Spartacus]

66s etc will eventually be replaced, I can't see powered freight wagons becoming a common thing. It might be that future locos are all hybrids or electrics though.

 

[mpthomson]

Since the freight sector is privatized (for the most part) its up to the FOC to decide if they want to purchase a new type of locomotive. Personally I believe the emissions rulings are complete and utter tosh. The reason we have emissions rulings for cars is because there are BILLIONS of them in the world. If you make a class of locomotive with today's standards, even if it chucks out the same garbage a 56 does, or a 37, there are only going to be 50 of them, maybe 100! Its hardly going to change the world. Lets say tomorrow all cars are electric and the locomotives of the world are the only things chucking out emissions. The world will still be cleaner than it ever has been in the industrial age. Most people will go their whole lives without even seeing the locomotives.

Years ago Norton Motorcycles applied for a racing permit for a rotary engine motorcycle to race with. It chucked out lots of crap, but because only 2 or 3 were going to be racing the permit was allowed. The street capable version of the bike was modified however. Diesel trains should have emission controls within closed in stations like Birmingham New street. But when the train leaves for open ground it should be allowed to open up.

That still requires emission compliant engines. If they needed to be emission compliant for short periods, like in some stations, why on earth wouldn't you operate them in that manner outside stations?

 

[Mordac]

That still requires emission compliant engines. If they needed to be emission compliant for short periods, like in some stations, why on earth wouldn't you operate them in that manner outside stations?

Because they need very little power while at the stations?

 

[mushroomchow]

Suggesting the end of locomotive building is a pretty daft suggestion, but there does seem an increasing move in the industry to retrofitting existing locomotives to extend their service life and in cases completely repurpose them - the 73s being the prime example, alongside the 56s and 57s. Hell, even multiple units are starting to be considered, if you consider the 230s and 769s.

I can see re-engining of existing units becoming the primary approach for as long as the bodyshells are robust enough to warrant it. The only real thing on the horizon I can see leading to mass withdrawals of existing classes of loco would be the move away from diesel to electric traction, but even then we'll have to see where battery technology is at in 2040 as I can't see every freight route being electrified.

We'll likely see TOCs assessing their options for new stock as the years pass and the standard of expertise amongst the "retrofitting" industry continues to improve - we've come a fair way in reliability and application since they re-engine the Hoovers all those years ago.

 

[The Lad]

Re-engined the Hoover's?

 

[randyrippley]

Re-engined the Hoover's?

He must be getting "air filter" and "engine" confused.

 

[snakeeyes]

Suggesting the end of locomotive building is a pretty daft suggestion, but there does seem an increasing move in the industry to retrofitting existing locomotives to extend their service life and in cases completely repurpose them - the 73s being the prime example, alongside the 56s and 57s. Hell, even multiple units are starting to be considered, if you consider the 230s and 769s.

I can see re-engining of existing units becoming the primary approach for as long as the bodyshells are robust enough to warrant it. The only real thing on the horizon I can see leading to mass withdrawals of existing classes of loco would be the move away from diesel to electric traction, but even then we'll have to see where battery technology is at in 2040 as I can't see every freight route being electrified.

We'll likely see TOCs assessing their options for new stock as the years pass and the standard of expertise amongst the "retrofitting" industry continues to improve - we've come a fair way in reliability and application since they re-engine the Hoovers all those years ago.

Didn't know that the Hoovers were re-engined?

 

[USRailFan]

According to Wikipedia there's a suggestion to re-engine a number of 56s

 

[Roast Veg]

There is, it is a product that UKRL at Leicester are offering constructed from the shells that they own there. The viability of such a purchase would hinge around how expensive new build locomotives become. There are plenty of manufacturers still building new locos that would be happy to design something to suit the UK loading gauge that aren't all about to disappear - unless North America gives up on its own loco haulage overnight!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

There is, it is a product that UKRL at Leicester are offering constructed from the shells that they own there. The viability of such a purchase would hinge around how expensive new build locomotives become. There are plenty of manufacturers still building new locos that would be happy to design something to suit the UK loading gauge that aren't all about to disappear - unless North America gives up on its own loco haulage overnight!

Would those be the former Healey Mills demics?

 

[TrainfanBen]

66s etc will eventually be replaced, I can't see powered freight wagons becoming a common thing. It might be that future locos are all hybrids or electrics though.

Like DMU's, it would be more efficient surely to have powered wagons? Could see longer/fewer trains and increase network capacity.

 

[lyndhurst25]

One thing I wonder is will we ever see any new shunters built? The newest 08s are over 55 years old now.

 

[fowler9]

Like DMU's, it would be more efficient surely to have powered wagons? Could see longer/fewer trains and increase network capacity.

At least in the near future how are you going to power wagons that drop stuff out of the bottom and have stuff dropped in them through the top? Most modern wagons involve one of not both of those two.

 

[43096]

Like DMU's, it would be more efficient surely to have powered wagons? Could see longer/fewer trains and increase network capacity.

Nope, not the case. Once you get to around five/six vehicles the cost of maintaining the engines and cooler groups on every vehicle makes use of a locomotive more economic. When you get to freight, where you are dealing with many more vehicles, the case for a locomotive is overwhelming. Fuelling that many vehicles also becomes a logistical nightmare.

That is before you get to things like:
- fitting engines into available space - it will reduce payload as vehicle weight increases for fuel, engine etc.
- putting engines under low floor wagons is problematic.
- safety. Anyone up for fitting diesel engines and fuel tanks under a petroleum tank (or 25)?
- still need a vehicle at the front with a driving cab.
- if it is electric traction you want, how do you fit a container flat with a pantograph?

 

[TrainfanBen]

At least in the near future how are you going to power wagons that drop stuff out of the bottom and have stuff dropped in them through the top? Most modern wagons involve one of not both of those two.

I was speaking generally rather than in reference to specific types, although FAA intermodals come to mind.

Nope, not the case. Once you get to around five/six vehicles the cost of maintaining the engines and cooler groups on every vehicle makes use of a locomotive more economic. When you get to freight, where you are dealing with many more vehicles, the case for a locomotive is overwhelming. Fuelling that many vehicles also becomes a logistical nightmare.

That is before you get to things like:
- fitting engines into available space - it will reduce payload as vehicle weight increases for fuel, engine etc.
- putting engines under low floor wagons is problematic.
- safety. Anyone up for fitting diesel engines and fuel tanks under a petroleum tanker.
- still need a vehicle at the front with a driving cab.
- if it is electric traction you want, how do you fit a container flat with a pantograph?

Good points.

 

[InOban]

I would have thought that the main driver towards either re-engining or new builds will be the greatly improved fuel economy of modern engines. In its lifetime an engine will cost vastly more in fuel than it cost to build. Wasn't it fuel economy which drove the re-engining of the HSTs?

 

[Billy A]

One thing I wonder is will we ever see any new shunters built? The newest 08s are over 55 years old now.

Well, Vossloh for one still make traditional low speed shunters for private buyers with their own sidings. Most of their production though is oriented more towards light freight locos that do a bit of shunting as a sideline.

 

[Harbornite]

"Are the class 88s the last locomotives we will see built"
Probably not, I'd be surprised if they were. However we probably won't see any all new designs in the UK for a good few years.

 

[GusB]

As long as there is a need to move lots of freight, I can't see that we'll ever see the end of locomotive haulage. I suspect the days where a loco has one single, large, power source are numbered, though. I'm not totally up-to-date with the latest trends, but isn't there a move toward having multiple smaller engines that can be switched in and out according to demand?

I read an interesting article on the Rail Engineer site the other day about hydrogen propulsion. Perhaps the technology isn't quite mature enough for locos, but maybe one day.

https://www.railengineer.uk/2018/01/05/hydrail-comes-of-age/

Looking to the future

Pollutants from rail diesel traction may soon become increasingly unacceptable. In California, a study has shown that the nitrous oxide emissions from diesel locomotives hauling freight trains from the ports of Los Angeles is equal to that from all Southern California’s industrial plants. In the USA and Europe, emissions standards for railway diesel traction are more relaxed than those for lorries and buses on the basis that railway emissions are low per tonne hauled. This may change with increasing concern about total emissions.

For example, Canada’s fleet of 3,000 locomotives consumes two billion tonnes of diesel to produce six million tonnes of CO2 and 100 thousand tonnes of pollutants that are hazardous to health. This is one of the reasons why Transport Canada has funded a study into the feasibility of using Hydrail vehicles for commuter trains in Ottawa and Toronto.

A hydrogen powered main line locomotive would require a fuel storage arrange similar to this Russian LNG powered gas turbine locomotive.

In Toronto, such trains are hauled by diesel locomotives of 3,000kW, which is far greater than the power of any hydrogen powered rail vehicles to date. Initial feasibility work shows that a hydrogen-powered locomotive with this output would have to be a two-unit locomotive with one unit containing only the hydrogen storage. Such a hydrogen locomotive would thus need the train to be extended by another coach length, or require a passenger coach to be removed from the train.

This indicates that the space required to store hydrogen is such that its use to fuel freight locomotives or high-speed trains may not be viable. For high-powered rail traction applications, electrification is likely to remain the only non-polluting, low-carbon option, dependant on how electricity is produced. For lower-powered applications, such as shunting locomotives and multiple units, it will be difficult to persuade legislators to continue to accept higher emissions from railway diesels when hydrogen offers a zero-emissions alternative.

 

[DarloRich]

I was just wondering after reading various topics on rolling stock, are the class 88's the last locomotives we will see built?

No

Suggesting the end of locomotive building is a pretty daft suggestion, but there does seem an increasing move in the industry to retrofitting existing locomotives to extend their service life and in cases completely repurpose them - the 73s being the prime example, alongside the 56s and 57s. Hell, even multiple units are starting to be considered, if you consider the 230s and 769s.

I can see re-engining of existing units becoming the primary approach for as long as the bodyshells are robust enough to warrant it. The only real thing on the horizon I can see leading to mass withdrawals of existing classes of loco would be the move away from diesel to electric traction, but even then we'll have to see where battery technology is at in 2040 as I can't see every freight route being electrified.

We'll likely see TOCs assessing their options for new stock as the years pass and the standard of expertise amongst the "retrofitting" industry continues to improve - we've come a fair way in reliability and application since they re-engine the Hoovers all those years ago.

Why do you think there might have been re engineering of some of the class 73's rather than a new build?

Like DMU's, it would be more efficient surely to have powered wagons? Could see longer/fewer trains and increase network capacity.

No - it will just increase costs by increasing the number of items to be maintained and increase your fuel costs.

One thing I wonder is will we ever see any new shunters built? The newest 08s are over 55 years old now.

They are - but they are also very robust and simple bits of kit.

 

[507021]

I personally doubt the Class 88s will be the last new locomotives on the United Kingdom railway network, especially I think there will always be a need for locomotives for some role or another. I think it's possible we'll see multiple units which are specifically designed to haul freight in the future, but I think there's a far greater chance of another two or three new locomotive classes (probably diesel or bi-mode) before then.

 

[broadgage]

For as long as we have railways, there will be a need for locomotives for hauling freight vehicles, for infrastructure works and for rescuing failed passenger trains.
I suspect however that this will be a declining market and that the days of large orders for 100% diesel locomotives may be over.

Future requirements for 100% diesel locomotives may be so small that rebuilding and re-powering existing locos might be more worthwhile than a new design for small numbers.
Future mainline freight locomotives may well be hybrid types so as to maximise use of electric traction, with a relatively small diesel engine for limited use in yards, depots, dockyards and other places where electrification is not sensible.

 

[Roast Veg]

Would those be the former Healey Mills demics?

I don't know for sure but it seems very likely.

 

[themiller]

Well, Vossloh for one still make traditional low speed shunters for private buyers with their own sidings. Most of their production though is oriented more towards light freight locos that do a bit of shunting as a sideline.

This might be a useful bit of kit for non-electrified sidings in an electrified area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SBB-CFF-FFS_Eem_923

 

[USRailFan]

I think it was Talbot in Germany that came up with a container-carrying DMU some years ago, IIRC some even found their way to the UK for track maintenance work. There's definately a niche market for that sort of stuff but traditional freight trains are going to be with us for a long time yet.

 

[USRailFan]

Then of course the Japanese have this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M250_series
Containers in 130 km/h on CAP gauge... Gives new meaning to "fast freight".

As I said tho - niche market.