telstarbox
Established Member
Who will be the leader and will they go more to the centre or stay on the populist / near Reform angle?
Not a bad shout come to think of it.------- i'm still thinking it'll be between Mordaunt --
I agree that's how it's likely to go. There will be many arguments among the various factions about why their loss has been so great and what should have been done to avoid it. A leader will be chosen from among the remaining MPs. Whom they choose will depend on who is available and the views of the majority of Conservative MPs in the new Parliament; if most of them are right-wingers they are likely to choose one of those. How things subsequently develop will depend partly on how well the new government performs and what sort of majority it has. Conservatives might be facing a prolonged period in opposition during which they may re-define themselves in some way. External events will inevitably have an impact: if Russia invades other countries, or other members of the EU decide to exit, such events will help shape what the UK must do and the policies that UK political parties adopt.I think the question is impossible to answer right now because it will all depend on how badly the Tories do at the next election. Plus, if they do as badly as some polls are predicting, a number of their MPs who might have become their next leader will have become ineligible by losing their seats, so a lot could depend on which ones are actually still MPs. The only thing I'd be confident in predicting is that there is going to be a lot of soul-searching, arguing, division, and basically tearing themselves to bits amongst the Tories for the next couple of years.
This must hinge on whether Sunak retains his seat; if he doesn't, then a leader must be chosen from one of the remaining rump of Tories. If he does, would he show his gratitude to the people of Richmond, Yorkshire, by quitting immediately? That should be a rhetorical question, but I wouldn't put it past him doing the dirty on them. Much talk in political circles the last few months both of Johnson attempting a comeback and Farage being allowed back into the party, with what in mind you might ask. Neither would wish for a backbench life.
This might be interesting for people trying to work out who may end up as Tory leader after the election and Sunak's likely exit to California - a list of all MPs ordered by the size of their majority.
I'd be amazed if Sunak actually lost his seat but how long he hangs around afterwards is another question. Can't see Farage even wanting back in, his current position talking his own brand of nonsense on tv and getting paid for it is a much easier screw. A Johnson comeback is perfectly possible if only to avoid having a real loony as leader.This must hinge on whether Sunak retains his seat; if he doesn't, then a leader must be chosen from one of the remaining rump of Tories. If he does, would he show his gratitude to the people of Richmond, Yorkshire, by quitting immediately? That should be a rhetorical question, but I wouldn't put it past him doing the dirty on them. Much talk in political circles the last few months both of Johnson attempting a comeback and Farage being allowed back into the party, with what in mind you might ask. Neither would wish for a backbench life.
For the purposes of this thread I think we take it as read that they lose badly. Sunak will be out as leader whether he keeps his seat or not, and will have little relevance to what some next.We'll see a repeat of the early 2000s, after long enough the Conservative HQ will have thrown out the far-right figures and will return to more centralist conservatism.
The party will struggle as long as they keep on trying to appeal to the far right, Reform has got that small market while extreme views and unpopular figures like Suella Braverman alienate the rest of the country.
I'd be pleasantly surprised too, but I remember a poll last year of, I think, over 10,000 people when Labour were 21 0r 22% ahead that showed he'd lose it under those circumstances. If Reform stood and got even three or four thousand, he could well lose.I'd be amazed if Sunak actually lost his seat but how long he hangs around afterwards is another question. Can't see Farage even wanting back in, his current position talking his own brand of nonsense on tv and getting paid for it is a much easier screw. A Johnson comeback is perfectly possible if only to avoid having a real loony as leader.
I'm afraid that, for once, I'm not following you. What's Johnson got to do with the 1997 result, when John Major was the leader of the Tories and retained his seat? It was three leaders later under Michael Howard that the buffoon Johnson was given his first chance to make a ministerial cock-up, which he duly did of course.For the purposes of this thread I think we take it as read that they lose badly. Sunak will be out as leader whether he keeps his seat or not, and will have little relevance to what some next.
After the 1997 defeat there were a fair few more moderate Tory MPs remaining, but most of those remaining were thrown out by Johnson. So the party is even more likely to conclude it wasn't right wing enough and move further in that direction, and to take longer to head back to the centre if it ever does.
I'd say this is unlikely for at least 10 years. If we have electoral reform by then, it's likely there would be a centre-right party and a further right party, and the two might govern in coalition or the centre-right might form a coalition with a party of the centre or even centre-left. Which, if any, inherits the Conservative name is an open question.
My thought was that in 1997 the party had a much broader range of viewpoints including significant numbers of centre-right, but still swerved to the right after their defeat until it returned somewhat to the centre under Cameron. This year, I think it will do the same, but with far fewer moderate voices amongst their MPs (for reasons including their sacking by Johnson) it will go further that way and for longer.I'm afraid that, for once, I'm not following you. What's Johnson got to do with the 1997 result, when John Major was the leader of the Tories and retained his seat? It was three leaders later under Michael Howard that the buffoon Johnson was given his first chance to make a ministerial cock-up, which he duly did of course.
My thought was that in 1997 the party had a much broader range of viewpoints including significant numbers of centre-right, but still swerved to the right after their defeat until it returned somewhat to the centre under Cameron. This year, I think it will do the same, but with far fewer moderate voices amongst their MPs (for reasons including their sacking by Johnson) it will go further that way and for longer.
As said above I agree that it will come down to a choice between Morduant and The Wolf(TM), and I suspect that the latter be more popular with those of lesser control of their eye movements, and so will win the leadership, thus consigning the Conservatives to losing the next election too.
60506 or 87027 though?As said above I agree that it will come down to a choice between Morduant and The Wolf(TM), and I suspect that the latter be more popular with those of lesser control of their eye movements, and so will win the leadership, thus consigning the Conservatives to losing the next election too.
A curious constituency by the looks of it - Labour even won it for a time in 1997, for one term, unlike say Canterbury which was solid Tory throughout the Blair years.Rebecca Harris won Castle Point (south Essex) with 76% of the vote, highest for any Tory. One noteworthy point about this constituency is that it has one of the lowest levels of university graduates.
Mordaunt is by no means sure of winning her seat
This might be interesting for people trying to work out who may end up as Tory leader after the election and Sunak's likely exit to California - a list of all MPs ordered by the size of their majority.
the previous Tory MP Bob Spink
I think it depends who stands. Absent any shenanigans like those that gave us Sunak (i.e. nobody else standing, Mordaunt withdrew before it got to a ballot), the MPs will supply two candidates to the membership. I fully expect them to then pick the rightmost of the two.Penny Mordaunt and they will move to the centre. The vote on the right will be split for a long time.
Comfortably the least pleasant MP I ever had the ‘pleasure’ of meeting.
There are a lot of chickens being counted whilst still at the egg stage here. I hope you aren't tempting fate! It might just be Rishi Triumphant with a paper-thin majority. Has anyone mentioned Mr Farage yet?
Penny Mordaunt is at best on the centrist end of the right wing of the party. Compared to the party of even 10 years ago she's a fully-signed-up right-wing nutcase.Penny Mordaunt and they will move to the centre. The vote on the right will be split for a long time.