Correlation between Brexit Voting and Covid-19 Death Rates

[DerekC]

Here is an interesting summary of a research paper that I haven't managed to find the original of yet:

https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/news/headline_821384_en.html

NEW RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS A LINK BETWEEN BREXIT VOTING AND COVID-19 DEATH RATES​

A marked statistical link between the proportion of people who voted Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and lower COVID-19 death and infection rates in England, has been uncovered by new research from Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford and University of Glasgow Adam Smith Business School.

Data assessed by Professor Ludovic Phalippou (Oxford Saïd) and Dr Betty Wu (Glasgow Adam Smith Business School) shows that districts that voted most in favour of remaining in the European Union have:

• a death rate that is one third lower
• an infection rate that is one quarter lower
• and a vaccination rate that is higher, than districts with the least Remainers.

In the paper, ‘The Cost of Ignoring Experts? Brexit and COVID-19 Death Rates’, Professor Phalippou and Dr Wu study the extent to which the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths across 300 Local Authority Districts in England, is correlated to the 2016 Brexit vote.

Professor Phalippou commented: “There may be a cultural divide between groups of people who accept and those who reject, the advice of experts, be that on Brexit, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) such as wearing masks, or on vaccines. Our results suggest a need for designing incentive schemes that account for different cultures and belief systems. Science prowess - such as finding an effective vaccine – may not be sufficient to solve this crisis.”

Dr Betty Wu added: “Our research has shown how two major events, apparently unrelated and five years apart, have a very high degree of correlation. We considered a whole raft of variations, among them the proportion of retirees, population density and numbers of care homes, but none were nearly as significantly related to lower death rates as the fraction of Remainers. Similarly, lower vaccination rates and those voting for Brexit, was easily the most statistically significant explanatory variable.”

 

[yorkie]

I would guess that is because people who voted remain are more likely to be younger, more likely to be more affluent, more likely to be healthier, etc.

Professor Phalippou is wrong to bring masks into it this, unless they are talking about highly effective FFP3 masks (or similar).

 

[ExRes]

And we're supposed to take note of 'scientific' research after the last two years?

 

[Gloster]

There has also been a piece about people in districts that voted for Trump being more likely to die of Covid. In October it peaked with the rate for the ten percent that was the strongest pro-Trump being ten times the strongest pro-Biden districts.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I wonder if the vaccination rate would still be higher in Remain areas if you took Scotland out of the picture. Most Scottish districts were heavily Remain and all are more vaccinated than demographically similar areas in England.

After all, it doesn't exactly seem likely that vaccination rates correlate with Brexit vote. London has the lowest vaccination rates in the country, but voted strongly Remain; that contrasts with the heavily vaccinated North East and South West, both Leave voting regions (and the former most Leave of all).

 

[MikeWM]

I would guess that is because people who voted remain are more likely to be younger, more likely to be more affluent, more likely to be healthier, etc.

Indeed - this appears a rather pointless piece of research unless they've actually adjusted for factors such as demographics and levels of deprivation in each area they've examined.

(the same applies to the research mentioned above about Trump/Biden voters)

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Look at the maps showing which districts voted for "Brexit".
You would note that well off areas voted for the status quo, while areas which feel neglected voted for change.

That's the only real demographic, not age, race, gender, or anything else.
If you are well off why vote for a big change?
If you are suffering already, why not vote for change?

Ofcourse the areas in England most suffering are industrial areas with a lost industry, Grimsby fish, Stoke potteries, Sheffield steel, London docks, and so on. Rural areas without industry always have healthier air and less stress, and were more likely to vote for nothing to change than townsfolk.

 

[bspahh]

Here is an interesting summary of a research paper that I haven't managed to find the original of yet:

The original is here https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3955345 but its behind a paywall

And we're supposed to take note of 'scientific' research after the last two years?

A few years ago I saved this quote from a weary postdoc, on a discussion board for PhD students.

If you are only now, in your expensive education, learning that what is contained on the printed page (even the reputable textbook page) is not necessarily the perfect, everlasting, unblemished truth, welcome to reality. Consider it, in fact, a cheap, if very valuable lesson.

 

[Jonny]

Indeed - this appears a rather pointless piece of research unless they've actually adjusted for factors such as demographics and levels of deprivation in each area they've examined.

(the same applies to the research mentioned above about Trump/Biden voters)

That is as easy as "Ordinary Least Squares" (straightforward once you have an implementation, and many are available).

 

[quantinghome]

Look at the maps showing which districts voted for "Brexit".
You would note that well off areas voted for the status quo, while areas which feel neglected voted for change.

That's the only real demographic, not age, race, gender, or anything else.
If you are well off why vote for a big change?
If you are suffering already, why not vote for change?

Ofcourse the areas in England most suffering are industrial areas with a lost industry, Grimsby fish, Stoke potteries, Sheffield steel, London docks, and so on. Rural areas without industry always have healthier air and less stress, and were more likely to vote for nothing to change than townsfolk.

I don't think your analysis works. The maps show that cities and Scotland were majority remain. Many of these areas are economically deprived. Smaller towns and the shires were majority leave. Many of these areas are pretty well-heeled.

Certainly there were plenty of people in economically neglected areas who voted for Brexit to make a change, but many more voted Brexit in well-off areas.

 

[Ediswan]

The original is here https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3955345 but its behind a paywall

The paywall has bugs. I was able to download the paper by clicking on one of the links. Not read yet.

From the public summary, it is not clear whether they set out to study a Brexit:Covid correlation, or went on a statistical fishing expedition comparing multiple factors to Covid, then wrote the paper to suit the strongest correlation found. See Data Dredging: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging

 

[hst43102]

Although I agree that Brexit was a bad idea, I strongly dislike the notion that people "ignored the experts". It just screams attention-seeking from these researchers and reeks of classism.

 

[21C101]

It is a reminder of the best thing about Covid.

Without Covid we would have had continous shroud waving about Brexit rather than Covid/Masks etc for the last two years.