Could Covid-19 affect the future rolling stock requirements for Southeastern?

[Robertj21a]

Moderator note: Split from Class 707s confirmed to be going to Southeastern

Southeastern metro have got massive current and future passenger growth projections, they need MORE trains not fewer.

Now to be revised post Coronavirus ?

 

[D365]

There aren't quite as many 707s [30] as 376s [36] but even post-virus recovery - whenever that is - won't see numbers back to what they were for years, less demand for longer trains can be met by overall diagram juggling acoss the whole SET fleet.

Even if demand is significantly lower (which is a very bold claim to make), there will still be the need to run long trains. Social distancing will still be in people’s minds for some time to come.

 

[D365]

Now to be revised post Coronavirus ?

How? What are you going to base these predictions off?

 

[ScotGG]

We have absolutely no idea what will happen in 2 years when the 707 trains are to move over.

If a vaccine is found and usable in the next 12 months then I'd expect usage to recover quickly.

How many times have short term issues been said to reduce demand? Fact is the population will keep rising in the mid term and car use and congestion unwelcome and discouraged in urban areas such as south east London.

South east London is also one of the poorer areas of London. Many travelling to work are less able to work remotely and at the coal face and people facing areas. Average income levels are lower.

 

[JackTheLad]

South east London is also one of the poorer areas of London. Many travelling to work are less able to work remotely and at the coal face and people facing areas. Average income levels are lower.

SE London is one of the poorer areas of London? I'm sorry where have you got that from? Orpington to CHX/CST line, all affluent areas. Bromley South via Herne Hill line, affluent areas. Sidcup, Bexleyheath, Hayes Lines mostly affluent areas. Yes of course there are people who have lower incomes I'm not saying that, but on my commute the majority of passengers are City or Canary Wharf professionals.

 

[cactustwirly]

SE London is one of the poorer areas of London? I'm sorry where have you got that from? Orpington to CHX/CST line, all affluent areas. Bromley South via Herne Hill line, affluent areas. Sidcup, Bexleyheath, Hayes Lines mostly affluent areas. Yes of course there are people who have lower incomes I'm not saying that, but on my commute the majority of passengers are City or Canary Wharf professionals.

But what about Lewisham, Catford, Charlton, Woolwich etc?

 

[JackTheLad]

But what about Lewisham, Catford, Charlton, Woolwich etc?

Places that now cost a fortune to live in due to massive investment in new housing for commuters. A one bedroom studio in Kidbrooke Village for example £447,000. The same at Woolwich Arsenal and Lewisham £387,000. Yes there are poorer areas like ALL London boroughs, but to say SE London is a poorer area of London on the whole is not the case at all. Lewisham, Catford, Charlton, Woolwich are becoming commuter havens and therefore driving the average wealth up

 

[Mikey C]

Places that now cost a fortune to live in due to massive investment in new housing for commuters. A one bedroom studio in Kidbrooke Village for example £447,000. The same at Woolwich Arsenal and Lewisham £387,000. Yes there are poorer areas like ALL London boroughs, but to say SE London is a poorer area of London on the whole is not the case at all. Lewisham, Catford, Charlton, Woolwich are becoming commuter havens and therefore driving the average wealth up

But massively poorer than the equivalents in say SW London

That property prices have shot up doesn't reflect the wealth of the locals, most of which either have to rent or have an appalling mortgage, leaving little spare money behind

 

[ScotGG]

SE London is one of the poorer areas of London? I'm sorry where have you got that from? Orpington to CHX/CST line, all affluent areas. Bromley South via Herne Hill line, affluent areas. Sidcup, Bexleyheath, Hayes Lines mostly affluent areas. Yes of course there are people who have lower incomes I'm not saying that, but on my commute the majority of passengers are City or Canary Wharf professionals.

Yes, according to the ONS SE London is generally lower income than much of London. Many of the most deprived wards and areas are east and south east London. East London however has pockets of vast wealth such as gentrified inner areas and Canary Wharf. In SE London Deptford, New Cross, Lewisham are nowhere near as high income. In terms of land and property prices Bexley is 31st out of 32. Lewisham not much higher along with Greenwich and Bromley tops the list yet only around 20th of 32. Its leafy suburbia sure in many parts of Bexley (though the north of borough isn't) and Bromley but that doesn't mean much in a London context.

I'm referring to averages. Even inner London Zone 1 has pockets of deprivation but generally south east London is not wealthy despite some pockets and changes. Ludicrous new build prices do not mean much if are let out as Mikey highlights. Also, they could be the first to fall in price in the current downturn. That was the case in 2007-9.

 

[david1212]

Long term even for those who can work at home now for many it is not the right solution. What I do think will happen is businesses reviewing the way they operate including spreading working hours, the premises they are operating from and the cost of these. Can they have instead several smaller places with overall a lower cost? If so the resultant reduction will not be the numbers commuting but the distance they commute. For the railway overall this would reduce the capacity required particularly at the current peak times.