The planning headway between Exeter Central and St Davids is 3 minutes. However, the platform reoccupation at Exeter Central is 4 minutes, and the minimum dwell time there is 1.5 minutes. If successive trains use the Up Waterloo (rather than one using the Up and the next the Down, or vice versa), the second train cannot depart St Davids until 2 minutes after the first train has departed Central. The sectional running time from St Davids to Central is 2.5 minutes for most traction types.
When combined, these factors limit the practical headway to 5.5 minutes in the Down direction and 6 minutes in the Up direction. That would suggest a maximum of 10tph - but that still ignores platforming at St Davids. Given that most services from Central either terminate or reverse at St Davids, and only 2 platforms can be accessed at St Davids from the Central direction, the realistic capacity of the Central-St Davids line is likely to be closer to 5tph each way, as originally suggested. You could only run 10tph if all trains continued beyond St Davids, e.g. to/from Tiverton or Barnstaple, or went into the sidings after a short dwell.