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Farage as PM? Could a Trump-style takeover happen in UK?

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DerekC

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There was a thought provoking article by Alan Rusbridger in the Independent last week. It's behind a paywall so I can't link it but the important bit is below. And the answer seems to be a resounding "YES". Thoughts invited.

A British Trump tribute act could snatch power in the UK – and wreak similar chaos .....​

How hard would it be?

Coups generally start with capturing the media. Quite a large chunk of ours wouldn’t need much capturing: they’re practically there already. The BBC wouldn’t be a hard nut to crack. Sack the chair (there’s precedent) and get them to sack the director general (ditto). Abolish the licence fee and say the organisation must in future stand on its own two feet. It’d soon fall into line.

You’d need your own version of Fox News: welcome GB News! Do we still need Ofcom to regulate fairness and impartiality? Thought not.

But don’t stop there. Ask every regulator to resign and replace them with loyalists. This would require dealing with the Commissioner for Public Appointments. Happily this office, set up by the Nolan Committee to straighten out public life in 1995, has never been on a statutory footing. So abolishing it would be the work of a moment – done by an order in council.

An order in council, if you haven’t been paying attention, is a form of legislation supposedly made by the monarch on the advice of the privy council. They are similar to the Henry VIII clauses, which allow ministers to change primary legislation without the bother of parliamentary scrutiny.

You mocked as you saw Donald Trump sign all those executive orders without bothering Congress? Same idea. God bless Henry VIII.

Assuming there’s a comfortable majority in the Commons, and that MPs would be as loyal/intimidated as Maga representatives seem to be, there would be little problem with parliament nodding anything through. And anyway, there is a modern trend to pass so-called skeleton bills, which merely set out broad principles of a new policy without providing detailed specifics. Those are fleshed out by Henry VIII’s clauses.

In 1929, Lord Hewart, the lord chief justice, published a book called The New Despotism, which he defined as "to subordinate parliament, to evade the Courts, and to render the will, or the caprice, of the Executive unfettered and supreme”. And here we are, nearly 100 years later.

The House of Lords as a restraint? Again, perhaps you haven’t been paying attention. Time to scrap the feeble House of Lords appointments system. Permanent secretaries? Did you not notice how easily Truss sacked the redoubtable Tom Scholar (payoff £335k); or how the Home Office top bod Sir Philip Rutnam walked out after suffering a “vicious and orchestrated campaign” against him once Priti Patel showed up (payoff £340k)?

But we have apolitical judges, don’t we? They would surely be our last bastion. Well, yes and no. Perhaps you’ve noticed the campaign to undermine the Supreme Court? Or the nagging obsession among figures on the right with scrapping the Human Rights Act, curbing judicial review, and quitting the European Convention on Human Rights?

Right-wing academics writing for right-wing think tanks have begun to roll the pitch to legislate to increase ministerial involvement in judicial appointments. Richard Ekins, an Oxford professor who heads Policy Exchange’s “Judicial Power Project”, wants ministers to be able to reject candidates “where there are doubts about their suitability”. Just imagine where that leads!

But surely we have a system involving the Judicial Appointments Commission, created in 2006, which just appoints judges on merit – and that’s better than the American system under which a president can effectively pack the Supreme Court with people who see the world the same way he does? Well, what makes you think our UK Trump tribute act wouldn’t propose legislation to scrap our system and replace it with a more malleable one?

Perhaps a new broom would restore the power to create judges to the lord chancellor? And then you remember that our recent lord chancellors included Truss and Chris Grayling.

One constitutional expert I consulted admitted all this could happen, while reflecting that, in the past, “embarrassment was an important factor”. But that’s when the Good Chaps theory reigned. Does Nigel Farage strike you as easily embarrassed?
 
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Ghostbus

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If it happens it will be for the same reason it occurred in the USA. A horrendously poor mainstream political centre left party conducting absolutely terrible campaigns.

There are signs moderates are already turning to Reform. Not racists or lunatics, but people who are sick of mainstream politics failing them no matter who they pick, red, blue, yellow or green.

We are seven months into this Labour government and they still can't prevent rail strikes. And a lot of their policies seem to be extremely similar to the Tories - wreck the climate for growth, stigmatise people on benefits, stick to fiscal rules, tax the not exactly wealthy and businesses, be strong on crime and the causes of crime (to no effect whatsoever). Stuff that not only doesn’t really woo anyone away from Reform, it drives left wing voters away from Labour.

Combine that with the startling realisation that young people, after what they've had to endure with a botched Brexit, Covid, inflation and war in Europe, and the scary world their screens are feeding them, aren't actually turning out to be nice progressive voters in their teens and 20s who value representative democracy but are actually yearning for a strongman leader, and yes, there's an actual route to power for Farage opening up.

The deal maker in a splintered general election vote where no one party has anything near to a majority. And from there, the ability to say that the only way they truly get things done, is with a majority.

Labour in response are now trying to present themselves as the disruptors, the party of bold action, not Farage. They might be right. But not in the way they think. They might be about to disrupt UK politics for a generation. And will of course then blame the Tories. Which is both on point, and yet entirely misses the point.
 

RailWonderer

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I think the UK needs a more authoritarian stronghand approach, liberal multiculteralism has failed and unlike the older population I don't carry this post WWII idea that liberalism is the only way forward and the right way.

A one party system like Singapore would be brilliant for the UK, and being able to be tough on crime, aggressive on growth, manufacturing and heavy industry and deregulating will bring the stimulus and confidence in Britain we need. Woke ideology that stems from thinkers like Foucault has spurred on division and hatred and everyone being easily offended which needs to be eliminated in all institutions, the BBC, Ofcom and all aspects of society. As a side note, having more toll roads to raise more road revenue like in Europe would help and shift burdens from govt spending, and more gated commmunities will be needed to prevent Balkans organised crime casing, invading and gassing homes and robbing vehicles at unprecedented rates. Building new prisons and offshore detention centres will serve as a deterrant. Deterrance and zero tolerance is the only way forward.

The civil service neds to be purged to do this and I invite the processes outlined by the OP's linked article.
There was a thought provoking article by Alan Rusbridger in the Independent last week. It's behind a paywall so I can't link it but the important bit is below. And the answer seems to be a resounding "YES". Thoughts invited.
 

RailWonderer

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Dictatorship then.
We'll never be like the true dictatorships but a more stronghanded approach would be great to see, because my entire life I've seen politics fail. Politicians pander to parliament, the civil service, arms of government and their own cabinets.
What are you including in this?
The idea that people can identify with whatever they want to be and there are no genders, no man and no woman, transgenderism being taught in school, trans in sports, trans in womens loos, same sex adoption depriving a child a right to mother and father. Forced diverity targets but this is less related but broadly culture related.
 

AlterEgo

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The idea that people can identify with whatever they want to be and there are no genders, no man and no woman, transgenderism being taught in school, trans in sports, trans in womens loos, same sex adoption depriving a child a right to mother and father.
And you think this is leading to a less happy, less productive, less confident society?
 

Cowley

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Dictatorship then.


What are you including in this?

Indeed. It’s all fine as long as it’s “My Guy” in charge and don’t worry about the huge section of the country that would be appalled by a regime like that.

There does seem to be quite a lot of Authoritarian Curious people around these days, but I’m certainly NOT one of them!
 

RailWonderer

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And you think this is leading to a less happy, less productive, less confident society?
No, it doesn't have a bearing on productivity, which is at the crux of our growth issue, but it forms a part of an entire change of thought that needs to take place. There is no clear answer for productivity but it will take institutional change that no establishment candidate can deliver because it will require deregulation, removing sick benefits without evidence of sickness and how it prevents different kinds of work, and encouraging people back to work who haven't worked, Germanic style apprenticeships, part time work for retired people, those are just a few things.
 
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brad465

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Depends to what extent Trump and his administration screw up. Bear in mind the UK does need to have a general election till 2029, by which point Trump's term will be over. If by then the US has caused a large recession, and/or inequality has deepened even more and this allows the Democrats to regain control, then Trump will be seen to have failed and Farage and co. may struggle to distance themselves from association with him.

Alternatively, if Trump has somehow managed to abolish the term limit, engineer a state of emergency to postpone elections, and/or some other means of retaining power, this will look very bad from at least an outsider's perspective, and again if Farage et al. cannot distance themselves from him or his ideology, they will suffer.

Right now this is probably right-wing populism's peak: Trump, their poster boy, has only just returned to power and hasn't had a chance to completely wreck things yet (although Musk, the de facto President, seems to be going to great lengths to try). Other movements in other countries can ride this wave for now, but if it all goes wrong in the US, they'll be scrambling to dissociate from him, but without much success.

This is also why several European right-wing parties, that previously supported leaving the EU themselves, stopped supporting the idea of leaving the EU, when they saw how shambolic it went for the UK.
 

Cowley

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Regarding Farage though and bearing in mind that he’s a long term smoker, I do wonder how is health is going to hold up as he gets older.

I think he’ll be 65 at the next election and as far as I can see there’s no obvious person with his kind of charisma that would be able to step into his shoes if he were to leave politics. I think the next election may be his one and only shot at getting anywhere near power personally.
 

JGurney

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Even if Farrage did become PM, a "Trump-style takeover" would be a different matter. Trump has been elected as an individual. The PM here has to keep the confidence of the Commons, and the loyalties of the Cabinet.

As I suggested in another thread earlier, I think one of Farage's main problems would be assembling a team of somewhere over 400 supporters who would have all three of being able to appeal to the broad electorate, being willing to loyally support Farage (not turn on him like Johnson's and May's supporters did when things get challenging, or be angling to take over from him) and being capable of performing parliamentary and cabinet functions effectively.
 

GusB

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I think the UK needs a more authoritarian stronghand approach, liberal multiculteralism has failed and unlike the older population I don't carry this post WWII idea that liberalism is the only way forward and the right way.

A one party system like Singapore would be brilliant for the UK, and being able to be tough on crime, aggressive on growth, manufacturing and heavy industry and deregulating will bring the stimulus and confidence in Britain we need. Woke ideology that stems from thinkers like Foucault has spurred on division and hatred and everyone being easily offended which needs to be eliminated in all institutions, the BBC, Ofcom and all aspects of society. As a side note, having more toll roads to raise more road revenue like in Europe would help and shift burdens from govt spending, and more gated commmunities will be needed to prevent Balkans organised crime casing, invading and gassing homes and robbing vehicles at unprecedented rates. Building new prisons and offshore detention centres will serve as a deterrant. Deterrance and zero tolerance is the only way forward.

The civil service neds to be purged to do this and I invite the processes outlined by the OP's linked article.
You want to live in a hell-hole like that? Good grief!

Sorry, you can count me out.
 

AlterEgo

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No, it doesn't have a bearing on productivity, which is at the crux of our growth issue, but it forms a part of an entire change of thought that needs to take place.
It’s always curious to find people who think society needs some radical shakeup; whenever you ask what exactly it is that bothers them, it’s very often stuff like “gay adoption” and “trans”. In this benevolent dictatorship, what are trans people supposed to do, exactly? Just, like, revert to their previous gender?

Which other groups should suffer harm to deliver the utopian society your putative dictatorship would offer?

What harms are you willing to endure to deliver this society for the benefit, one presumes, charitably, to other people and not yourself?

In this example you even admit there are no direct benefits to doing any of this.
 

RailWonderer

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It’s always curious to find people who think society needs some radical shakeup; whenever you ask what exactly it is that bothers them, it’s very often stuff like “gay adoption” and “trans”. In this benevolent dictatorship, what are trans people supposed to do, exactly? Just, like, revert to their previous gender?

Which other groups should suffer harm to deliver the utopian society your putative dictatorship would offer?

What harms are you willing to endure to deliver this society for the benefit, one presumes, charitably, to other people and not yourself?

In this example you even admit there are no direct benefits to doing any of this.
To be fair, cultural issues should be driven by consensus of society and not forced by politics. The biological scientific fact of two genders only should be in law, because it's also about women's safety in loos, prisons and such. Beyond that, it's down to voters and values of society. I think that's fair and not causing harm. What bothers me isn't gay adoption mostly it's the high crime in my area, poor potholed roads, high house prices, the high street shutting down, heavy traffic all the time and mass migration.

Politicians are the members of Parliament and of the Cabinet. They pander to themselves?
Prime ministers*
 

kirk781

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I found a link to Prospect Magazine for that news article. Is that a subsidiary of the Independent? In case someone is on Firefox, Bypass Paywalls Clean extension works for the Independent and shows most articles.

All this reminds me is the still from Yes Minister about who reads what newspapers and their political ideology. It ends on a high with remarks about the Sun readers.
 
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AlterEgo

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mostly it's the high crime in my area, poor potholed roads, high house prices, the high street shutting down, heavy traffic all the time and mass migration.
It’s possible to have a society which tolerates and values trans and gender nonconforming people, supports gay adoption and also have a vibrant economy, good infrastructure, and respect for law and order. You could even argue for one, if you like - but it’s telling that you won’t.

I’ll ask again - what suffering will you endure to deliver the things you want, and why is it down to vulnerable minorities to make way for whatever society you’d like to see?
 

RailWonderer

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It’s possible to have a society which tolerates and values trans and gender nonconforming people, supports gay adoption and also have a vibrant economy, good infrastructure, and respect for law and order. You could even argue for one, if you like - but it’s telling that you won’t.

I’ll ask again - what suffering will you endure to deliver the things you want, and why is it down to vulnerable minorities to make way for whatever society you’d like to see?
No one has to suffer. If this is mainly about minority rights you are referring to, sometimes you can't give rights to one group without taking away from another. You let men who call themselves women use women's loos and prisons, you get predatory crime and it sets a precedent. In sports, it's totally unfair as well for obvious biological reasons, and it runs counter to basic science. If people are offended by that, it's a problem with the ideology they've been fed. Any other laws around minorities and it's down to voters and society as a whole as I've said.
 

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because it's also about women's safety in loos
Just picking up on this, I do always find it a really really odd area for people to get in a tizzy over, for the simple reason that the perceived problem will still exist, just the other way around.

Presumably the alternative would be for trans people to use the toilets associated with their birth gender, but surely it can be reasonably foreseen that it could make women *more* uncomfortable having to share the womens' facilities with a trans man, maybe with beard, muscles, whatever, who despite clearly presenting as male now under this new system has to use the ladies because that's the gender they were born?
 

SteveP29

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You want to live in a hell-hole like that? Good grief!

Sorry, you can count me out.
You can count me out of that too.

I guess it would only be a hell hole to him, if something were to directly affect him, and lets face it, something will directly affect him if this were the state of play in this country, being as just about everything is interconnected in some way.
Make a small change to something here, it has massive, unintended effects there.
This is the hope that I'm clinging to that Reform get no more popular, being as they are a one issue party, sorry, limited company, they offer one line solutions to things like education, health, and housing, one line doesn't make a policy and it'd be bloody hard to make policy out of one line that aligns with everything else without affecting other policies.
 

jon0844

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The biological scientific fact of two genders only should be in law, because it's also about women's safety in loos, prisons and such.

Can you point me to all the incidents of women being attacked/harassed/assaulted in toilets by trans people?
 

AlterEgo

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No one has to suffer. If this is mainly about minority rights you are referring to, sometimes you can't give rights to one group without taking away from another. You let men who call themselves women use women's loos and prisons, you get predatory crime
What do you think would happen to trans women in the gentlemen’s toilet? Do you think that the wholesale removal of trans people’s rights and recognition would cause them harm, or do you reckon they’re all kind of just “doing a bit” and they’ll snap out of it if the law merely declares that’s not cool any more?

. If people are offended by that, it's a problem with the ideology they've been fed
Fed by whom? Do you think people are able to make up their own minds about these matters? If people are offended, by, say, the perceived dignity of cis women sharing spaces with trans women, is that not down to the “ideology they’ve been fed?”. Many countries don’t have very strict concepts of a gender binary, and our culture which does is as much a product of ideology as anything else, if you use the same logic.

. Any other laws around minorities and it's down to voters and society as a whole as I've said.
“I’m happy with laws against minorities being decided by other people and not me, but I have really strong opinions on trans people, a tiny minority, which I’d like to see personally imposed, so much so that when I fantasise about a dictatorship, these people are one of the top issues”.

Are you part of a minority group? What suffering or loss of social standing would you endure to deliver the society you desire, or is this down to others to make way, as usual?
 

yorkie

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... You let men who call themselves women use women's loos and prisons, you get predatory crime and it sets a precedent...
A more sensible approach is to provide a gender-neutral toilet, open to all. Many places are adopting this approach; do you object to that?

Your argument sounds overly simplistic to me; for example, how would you treat someone who was born male but transitioned at such a young age that you would not consider for a moment any possibility that they weren't born a girl?

Where would you draw the line?
 

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I don't believe that the UK could have experience a true Trump-style takeover based on how our system works. The electoral calculus (at the time of posting) currently predicts a stalemate with Labour and Lib Demn combined seats of 271 and the Conservative and Reform seats of 307, so even a well organised right-wing coalition lead by Badenoch and Farage would fall short of a majority.

As stated upthread, the cause of this would be a poor performance of the current government combined with bad campaigning on behalf of the mainstream left and centre. So far Starmer hasn't given me much to look forward to, but he's still got time to turn things around, and for the good of the country he really ought to do so. The centre-left needs their own strongman, because playing nice clearly doesn't work against people like Donald Trump.

I do disagree with some people's notion of Singapore being a hellhole though. It might not be a perfect country, and it's very much lacking some of the freedoms we take for granted here, but you cannot deny that it's leadership has been an overall net positive for it's people. It went from a small trading crossroad to an economic powerhouse where violent crime and theft are rare. It has it's problems, but it's definitely not what I could call a hellhole.

Compare and contrast the current state of the UK where the government doesn't inspire any hope for legitimate change, the populace is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the political system, and it feels like every week or two I'm hearing about people getting stabbed. As a young man with aspirations, I have never considered leaving the UK more than I have nowadays, and I consider myself quite patriotic.
 

Leyland Bus

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I think RailWonderer is going to have a melt down when he finds out about unisex toilets...

All this "women's safety" peddled by Farage and Trump supporters usually includes the desire for men to control women's bodies too. Preventing Abortions at all costs being a popular avenue...
 

RailWonderer

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A more sensible approach is to provide a gender-neutral toilet, open to all. Many places are adopting this approach; do you object to that?

Your argument sounds overly simplistic to me; for example, how would you treat someone who was born male but transitioned at such a young age that you would not consider for a moment any possibility that they weren't born a girl?

Where would you draw the line?
We’re down a bit of a tangent here but unisex are different because as long as there is an alternative nearby of safe space availability that’s fine, but when you allow all men into women’s toilets just because they identify with being a woman it’s inviting all sorts of trouble.

Transition at a young age shouldn’t even be happening and the law isn’t even consistent on it. Many teens do and have done things they regret, and the human brain isn’t fully developed as a teenager. They should be protected from harmful ideas that make them doubt and question their identity and let them decide when they’re eighteen. There is a lot of manipulation of kids going on by ideological campaigners and it’s sickening. It fuels depression, body dysmorphia and mental problems in teens.
 
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JGurney

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The biological scientific fact of two genders only should be in law,
Are you referring to genotypical gender or phenotypical gender? Biologists use both concepts. Do you want politicians to override biologists and dictate that only one be applied for legal purposes, and if so which?

For example in the cases of people with CAIS (complete androgen insensitivity syndrome) who are naturally phenotypically female and genotypically male, which do you argue they should be told they are in law?
 

yorkie

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Transition at a young age shouldn’t even be happening and the law isn’t even consistent on it. Many teens do and have done things they regret, and the human brain isn’t fully developed as a teenager. They should be protected from harmful ideas that make them doubt and question their identity and let them decide when they’re eighteen. There is a lot of manipulation of kids going on by ideological campaigners and it’s sickening. It fuels depression, body dysmorphia and mental problems in teens.
Do you know someone who went through this? How many kids/teens do you know/work with?

I can assure you the young person I know would completely reject your assessment, and having worked with many young people over the years, your claims aren't consistent with the reality that I've encountered.
 

alex397

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There are signs moderates are already turning to Reform. Not racists or lunatics, but people who are sick of mainstream politics failing them no matter who they pick, red, blue, yellow or green.
Do you have any evidence that so-called ‘moderates’ are turning to a far-right anti-woke party?
If any moderates are voting for Reform, then they certainly can’t be called moderates anymore. Unless they really are ignorant to Reform’s views and ideals.
Do these ‘moderates’ approve of Farage’s fawning over Trump? And his support of the AfD?
 

brad465

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I don't believe that the UK could have experience a true Trump-style takeover based on how our system works. The electoral calculus (at the time of posting) currently predicts a stalemate with Labour and Lib Dem combined seats of 271 and the Conservative and Reform seats of 307, so even a well organised right-wing coalition lead by Badenoch and Farage would fall short of a majority.
We are very early on in the parliament and anyone prolific jumping on this is doing so for their own benefit/clickbait. If we were in the final year of the parliament, and/or the government had a slim majority or was in a hung parliament, then yes current polling would matter much more.

I do disagree with some people's notion of Singapore being a hellhole though. It might not be a perfect country, and it's very much lacking some of the freedoms we take for granted here, but you cannot deny that it's leadership has been an overall net positive for it's people. It went from a small trading crossroad to an economic powerhouse where violent crime and theft are rare. It has it's problems, but it's definitely not what I could call a hellhole.
Whether or not Singapore is a well-run country, it is also a microstate. What they do there, whether good or bad, is not necessarily deliverable in a larger country, especially one that is a union of multiple states/countries like the UK or US.

Compare and contrast the current state of the UK where the government doesn't inspire any hope for legitimate change, the populace is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the political system, and it feels like every week or two I'm hearing about people getting stabbed. As a young man with aspirations, I have never considered leaving the UK more than I have nowadays, and I consider myself quite patriotic.
The problem is the same populace who are dissatisfied are also very apathetic. They just allow the status quo to continue and hope something better turns up. The reality is the whole system is the problem and nothing good will turn up under a broken system. If you want to change, you have to fight for it long and hard independent of any political party.

The single biggest systemic reform I'd argue for is Proportional Representation: this whole "they're all the same" argument stems for two large parties chasing a handful of swing voters to the detriment of everyone else. With PR the pool of target voters widens significantly, which coupled with more parties standing a chance of representation, allows more variety of offerings and new ideas to come forward. Then the need to collaborate to govern reduces the effectiveness of divide and rule politics, which improves both politics and society. For this reason, I'm part of a grassroots campaign for electoral reform and have done campaign speeches to clubs promoting it as a result, so practise what I preach about the need to fight for something. There are a bunch of other reforms to the system needed, but these are far more likely to succeed under a PR system.
 
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