HS2 Scrapped Legs - Referendum

[Legolash2o]

It's no surprise that HS2 later phases have been scrapped to just be London to Birmingham - which everyone said it would be anyway...

Do you think if the government put a referendum out there to continue the northern sections of HS2, would people vote for it?

 

[Chester1]

It's no surprise that HS2 later phases have been scrapped to just be London to Birmingham - which everyone said it would be anyway...

Do you think if the government put a referendum out there to continue the northern sections of HS2, would people vote for it?

No.

There is a cultural problem in the UK with building stuff and the bigger it is the more opposition there is. There is also the bias of people who will believe that their local transport projects will be more likely to happen if they vote no.

 

[Sorcerer]

If there was a referendum, I would vote yes. But unfortunately I think that I'll be in the minority of voters. Outside the forums I don't think HS2 was very popular to begin with and would be sold just as poorly as it was before with both main parties unwilling to bring Phase 2 back and with a lot of other smaller parties being against it. Cost is a valid reason to be unsure about endorsing it, and I can understand why, but there is more to it than just being expensive as a rail project (ie. bad management). I think what's done is done now really and we just need to move on and get Phase 1 finished.

 

[Mikey C]

Once HS2 is in service and demonstrating that it's a clear step up in speed and quality, it'll be easier to argue for extensions. Therefore the crucial thing now isn't to do anything that prevents this from happening in the future.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Most people I know would vote to stop building the first part of HS2....

 

[LMS 4F]

I think that a National referendum on any subject is extremely unlikely after the country not voting the way the establishment expected and wanted in 2016. Once bitten, twice shy will be their motto.
I would vote in favour.

 

[mrcheek]

the biggest argument would be over who gets to vote.
Those in the area affected? or those who would be paying for it? (ie everyone)

 

[Legolash2o]

If there was a referendum, I would vote yes. But unfortunately I think that I'll be in the minority of voters. Outside the forums I don't think HS2 was very popular to begin with and would be sold just as poorly as it was before with both main parties unwilling to bring Phase 2 back and with a lot of other smaller parties being against it. Cost is a valid reason to be unsure about endorsing it, and I can understand why, but there is more to it than just being expensive as a rail project (ie. bad management). I think what's done is done now really and we just need to move on and get Phase 1 finished.

Why do things cost so much these days in the UK? Why have we become so bad at big infrastructure projects?

the biggest argument would be over who gets to vote.
Those in the area affected? or those who would be paying for it? (ie everyone)

Probably everyone.

 

[AndrewE]

Most people I know would vote to stop building the first part of HS2....

Are they all in London too, with no interest in travelling north - or any concern for freight capacity on the WCML?
It seems to me that the opposition comes from the London bubble and people elsewhere who have no knowledge of or interest in transport realities!
A classic example of why a referendum is a bad idea as most people are swayed by the (partisan) press or another ignoramus in the pub.

 

[Ken H]

people wont vote for HS2. Most want their taxes spent on schools and hospitals. And the railway has had a bad press because of strikes, and stories of train drivers pay.
Not saying any of this is right, its probably how people will see it.

 

[Grimsby town]

HS2 is particularly unpopular with over 65s and they are far more likely to vote so I don't see a way for HS2. I suppose people that age start to travel less in general, probably won't see much benefit in their lifetime, and are more conservative/nostalgic. Its more popular in younger generations.

Its also an awful way of running an infrastructure and guarantees price rises. I'm convinced one of the reasons HS2 continues to see price rises is that nobody new it would go ahead until 2020. Why would you in invest in productive capacity in your business if a project might not even go ahead? We need more certainty in our infrastructure projects, not more uncertainty caused by a referendum.

 

[AlbertBeale]

HS2 is particularly unpopular with over 65s and they are far more likely to vote so I don't see a way for HS2. I suppose people that age start to travel less in general, probably won't see much benefit in their lifetime, and are more conservative/nostalgic. Its more popular in younger generations.

Its also an awful way of running an infrastructure and guarantees price rises. I'm convinced one of the reasons HS2 continues to see price rises is that nobody new it would go ahead until 2020. Why would you in invest in productive capacity in your business if a project might not even go ahead? We need more certainty in our infrastructure projects, not more uncertainty caused by a referendum.

I'd be interested in the source for that bit about age-related opposition to HS2.

Most people I know would vote to stop building the first part of HS2....

Are they all in London too, with no interest in travelling north - or any concern for freight capacity on the WCML?
It seems to me that the opposition comes from the London bubble and people elsewhere who have no knowledge of or interest in transport realities!
A classic example of why a referendum is a bad idea as most people are swayed by the (partisan) press or another ignoramus in the pub.

No - some are people in the Euston area who've lost their homes and jobs and green spaces, spent years living in the middle of a filth-ridden building site, and have ended up with acres of desolation all around them which is destined to sit there for many more years. I don't know many of opponents of HS2 who aren't both rail travellers (when they can afford it) and supportive of environmental improvements.

If by "the London bubble" you mean affluent people, the ones I'm thinking of are the opposite of that. In fact lots of people I know consider that the proponents of HS2 were the rich elite - people who are more interested in fancy, environmentally destructive, large-scale infrastructure (and profits for Tory-donor construction companies) than in lots of smaller-scale improvements which would (more quickly) benefit more "ordinary" people.

I agree that binary referendums are a bad idea - the world is more complicated than that.

 

[HSTEd]

Not a chance.

The project has acquired such a toxic reputation with the public that it would probably be as crushing a result as the AV referendum.

Are they all in London too, with no interest in travelling north - or any concern for freight capacity on the WCML?
It seems to me that the opposition comes from the London bubble and people elsewhere who have no knowledge of or interest in transport realities!
A classic example of why a referendum is a bad idea as most people are swayed by the (partisan) press or another ignoramus in the pub.

There are also people who believe the scheme is a black hole that will swallow up ever increasing supplies of money, and just want the bleeding to stop.

The evident management problems and the accusations that have surfaced, including persecution of whistleblowers, renders the entire scheme radioactive.
It will be years, if ever, before anyone finds out the truth of what went on (and is going on) with any degree of certainty.

At some point, the argument goes, you just have to pull the plug and put the scheme out of its misery.

 

[mike57]

If you held a referendum I am fairly certain the result would be a resounding no to any restoration of scrapped legs. Depending on how the question(s) were put there might even be majority in favour of killing it off completely however stupid that would be given the current state of progress.

Until we can find a way of delivering infrastructure projects with in or close to original budgets no one is going to back another large project or extensions to the current one.

I also think that the ineffectiveness of the management of HS2 brings into question the original decision making process to select the route etc. That process was probably as badly flawed as the rest of the project.

Its a shame as I think it has killed off any hope of a proper modern rail system with the capacity to meet future needs. I think history will look back on HS2 in the same way we currently look back on the Beeching report and the damage that did.

 

[Grimsby town]

I'd be interested in the source for that bit about age-related opposition to HS2

Data is from YouGov Polls covering the following question:

Do you support or oppose plans to build a new High Speed rail line linking London, Birmingham and Manchester?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-high-speed-rail-hs2

The last polls shows that 28% of over 65s are strongly opposed to HS2, with only 5% strongly in favour.

In comparison only 11% of 25-49 are strongly opposed, with 16% strongly in favour.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No.

There is a cultural problem in the UK with building stuff and the bigger it is the more opposition there is. There is also the bias of people who will believe that their local transport projects will be more likely to happen if they vote no.

Agreed. A referendum isn't the right way to decide this, partly because more of the population don't benefit than do, and partly because a lot of people who will benefit (e.g. those at local stations along the WCML who would receive an upgraded service) don't understand and sometimes stubbornly won't understand why it's good for them!

 

[AlbertBeale]

Data is from YouGov Polls covering the following question:



https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/support-for-high-speed-rail-hs2

The last polls shows that 28% of over 65s are strongly opposed to HS2, with only 5% strongly in favour.

In comparison only 11% of 25-49 are strongly opposed, with 16% strongly in favour.

Hmmm - interesting. Thanks.

 

[HullRailMan]

Not a chance. A referendum is a very blunt tool to deal with often very nuanced issues. You’d have two main issues in this case. Firstly, I’d expect a very low turnout as most people (especially those in unaffected parts of the country) simply won’t care, they will have no reason to go out and vote for it. Secondly, the ‘no’ camp can easily mount a campaign around the theme of ‘spend the money on [insert cause] instead’ which will hit voters on an emotional level and will be virtually impossible to counter.

Major infrastructure project are incredibly expensive and often have a whole heap of vested interests. Decisions need to be made by politicians with a long term vision and the courage to see it through - sadly, these no longer seem to exist on any side. As a result, we will just keep muddling through and messing up while the rest of the world moves forward. HS2 Will join Heathrow expansion as a project that’s a no brainier in terms of the benefits, but politicians don’t have the guts to see it through.

 

[HSTEd]

Agreed. A referendum isn't the right way to decide this, partly because more of the population don't benefit than do, and partly because a lot of people who will benefit (e.g. those at local stations along the WCML who would receive an upgraded service) don't understand and sometimes stubbornly won't understand why it's good for them!

Well it doesn't help that HS2 has nothing to offer but vague promises that they will benefit.

And the public has learned, through long and bitter experience, that vague promises from politicians are essentially meaningless.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Not a chance. A referendum is a very blunt tool to deal with often very nuanced issues. You’d have two main issues in this case. Firstly, I’d expect a very low turnout as most people (especially those in unaffected parts of the country) simply won’t care, they will have no reason to go out and vote for it. Secondly, the ‘no’ camp can easily mount a campaign around the theme of ‘spend the money on [insert cause] instead’ which will hit voters on an emotional level and will be virtually impossible to counter.

Major infrastructure project are incredibly expensive and often have a whole heap of vested interests. Decisions need to be made by politicians with a long term vision and the courage to see it through - sadly, these no longer seem to exist on any side. As a result, we will just keep muddling through and messing up while the rest of the world moves forward. HS2 Will join Heathrow expansion as a project that’s a no brainier in terms of the benefits, but politicians don’t have the guts to see it through.

I guess there's another thread somewhere to deal with that amazingly contentious suggestion...