Impact of Rail Strikes on Bus and Coach Services

[northwichcat]

If the RMT strike results in no real rail service and very few replacement buses operate, it could mean buses, coaches and light rail are the only ways of getting around. Which routes might get so many passengers that they struggle?

I'm thinking the 130 Wilmslow to Wythenshawe service might. It normally only carries a few people and is operated by 28 seater buses. However, if people in Wilmslow can't get to Manchester by train then getting a bus to Wythenshawe, where there's a Metrolink line to Manchester, might be a popular option.

Likewise with long distance coach services serving Manchester Airport, it could be some of the normally lightly loaded services get rammed if people are changing to coaches at Manchester Airport, instead of changing to trains at Stockport. That's in addition to the airport now being a Metrolink interchange.

The 88 Altrincham-Knutsford via Wilmslow service might struggle if the scholars who normally use the train, try to use the slower bus instead.

 

[lxfe_mxtterz]

I suspect if there isn't a rail service from Guildford/Cobham into London, some passengers may use the Stagecoach service 715 into Kingston, and then London bus it the rest of the way in. I've often done this anyway as it works out a heck of a lot cheaper than a train into Waterloo.

Can't really think of too many other options for these journeys - there's obviously the National Express service 030 between Guildford and London but that departs from a stop pretty far out of the town and I've often seen that service booked out anyhow.

Another route I've used when there's been rail disruption is the RailAir coach from Guildford to Heathrow, and then a London bus the rest of the way - an absolute last resort, however, as the fares are rather steep in comparison.

 

[markymark2000]

If the RMT strike results in no real rail service and very few replacement buses operate, it could mean buses, coaches and light rail are the only ways of getting around. Which routes might get so many passengers that they struggle?

I'm thinking the 130 Wilmslow to Wythenshawe service might. It normally only carries a few people and is operated by 28 seater buses. However, if people in Wilmslow can't get to Manchester by train then getting a bus to Wythenshawe, where there's a Metrolink line to Manchester, might be a popular option.

Likewise with long distance coach services serving Manchester Airport, it could be some of the normally lightly loaded services get rammed if people are changing to coaches at Manchester Airport, instead of changing to trains at Stockport. That's in addition to the airport now being a Metrolink interchange.

The 88 Altrincham-Knutsford via Wilmslow service might struggle if the scholars who normally use the train, try to use the slower bus instead.

199 will be one of the biggest ones. Completely duplicates the railway from Buxton to Manchester.

Bolton - Manchester 8 will be busy as will Walkden - Manchester 36/37/38.

Northwich - Chester 82 perhaps.



Intercity Coaches will be booming. National Express always says that their numbers sky rocket when there is a strike on. Now we have Flixbus and Megabus too, I expect some decent loadings between them.



It all depends on whether bus companies take advantage of the opportunity and push advertising as an 'alternative mode of travel', or, as per with the industry, let the opportunity pass by and then whinge for more support because they money isn't there.

 

[AY1975]

199 will be one of the biggest ones. Completely duplicates the railway from Buxton to Manchester.

Bolton - Manchester 8 will be busy as will Walkden - Manchester 36/37/38.

Northwich - Chester 82 perhaps.

Sheffield-Doncaster X78.
Sheffield-Castleton 272 (especially when there's a strike on a Saturday or Sunday when it's a fine day).
Sheffield-Chesterfield X17, 43, 44 and 50.
Matlock-Derby 6.1 and TransPeak.

 

[Ken H]

With the bus industry struggling to attract and keep drivers, I think few will be able to take advantage of any bonanza.

'Keighley Bus' - Kly - Skipton, Kly - Bradford and Kly - Leeds may be quite busy. As will the 'First Leeds' Ilkley - Leeds route.

 

[markymark2000]

With the bus industry struggling to attract and keep drivers, I think few will be able to take advantage of any bonanza.

Perhaps not cope with every single train passenger moving over to the buses during the overcrowded peak but the reality is probably 50% of rail passengers will probably find alternative routes or not travel, especially when it comes to leisure. On routes with spare capacity though, why not try to get people on and make a bit of money out of it.

 

[northwichcat]

199 will be one of the biggest ones. Completely duplicates the railway from Buxton to Manchester.

Actually Buxton to Manchester Airport but it does duplicate the railway south of Stockport. Buxton train services always seem lightly loaded at off-peak times but very busy at peak times.

 

[markymark2000]

Actually Buxton to Manchester Airport but it does duplicate the railway south of Stockport. Buxton train services always seem lightly loaded at off-peak times but very busy at peak times.

That's what I meant sorry. Didn't mean Manchester.

 

[Starmill]

Actually Buxton to Manchester Airport but it does duplicate the railway south of Stockport. Buxton train services always seem lightly loaded at off-peak times but very busy at peak times.

The large majority of the traffic on peak Buxtons is Hazel Grove - Manchester. So although I'm not saying that the 199 won't be busier, I think that the main increase will be people using the 192 between Hazel Grove and Manchester.

That's what I meant sorry. Didn't mean Manchester.

I think it's more likely that people will drive to Hazel Grove, where there's a large amount of free parking.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The X39 between Bristol and Bath can get interesting on days without rail transport (and without rail replacement buses)

 

[Doctor Fegg]

The Oxford Tube will be rammed.

 

[Statto]

10 & 10A Liverpool to St Helens, if Northern is badly affected
61 & 68 Blackpool to Preston buses
125 Bolton-Chorley-Preston
8 Manchester-Bolton
320 & 352 St Helens-Wigan
40 & 41 Preston-Lancaster
Many many more

 

[A S Leib]

500 Watford - Hemel Hempstead - Berkhamsted ( - Aylesbury)

301 (Hemel - St. Albans) - Hatfield - Welwyn Garden City - Stevenage

The 321 might pick up more passengers between St. Albans and Luton but I'd imagine that the section from St. Albans to Watford has as many passengers as the train in normal circumstances anyway.

 

[route101]

900 between Glasgow and Edinburgh. I have seen long lines when there is disruption.

 

[SSmith2009]

From Leicester the only ones I can think of being busier are:

X3 X7 Leicester to Market Harborough
Skylink Derby
X6 to Coventry

 

[Flange Squeal]

Loadings on the Stagecoach South 34/35 between Woking and Guildford could potentially struggle. It's already reduced from three to two buses per hour and train usage between the two places is quite high throughout the day, but particularly with work and school/college/Uni flows. Some peak/school time journeys are already quite snug as it is as regular passengers and students vie for space. I believe it is exam season(?) so the school/college students who currently use the train service will still need to travel.

 

[PTR 444]

Dorset

• 10 between Weymouth and Dorchester
• X54 between Weymouth and Poole
• 40 between Wareham and Poole
• 8/9 between Hamworthy and Poole
• m1 between Poole and Bournemouth station
• m2 between Poole and Pokesdown
• 1/1a between Bournemouth and Christchurch/New Milton
• X1/X2 between Bournemouth and Lymington

Hampshire

• 6 between Lymington and Southampton
• 8/11/12 between Totton and Southampton
• X7/X7R between Southampton and Salisbury
• 4 between Southampton and Romsey
• 5 between Romsey and Eastleigh
• 1 between Southampton and Winchester
• 2 between Southampton and Eastleigh
• U1 between Southampton and Southampton Airport
• E1/E2 between Eastleigh and Winchester
• X4 between Southampton and Portsmouth

The above are all routes which generally run parallel to the railway in the area and usually have a better frequency than the equivalent rail service, or are already well loaded to the point that any additional passengers would overwhelm the bus service.

 

[duncanp]

Just as well the West Midland Metro is (allegedly) coming back from tomorrow, as it provides an alternative from Wolverhampton to Birmingham

But it a masterstroke of planning, there will be engineering work on the first strike day, with no service between Wednesbury Parkway and Wolverhampton after 10pm.

 

[lxfe_mxtterz]

Loadings on the Stagecoach South 34/35 between Woking and Guildford could potentially struggle. It's already reduced from three to two buses per hour and train usage between the two places is quite high throughout the day, but particularly with work and school/college/Uni flows. Some peak/school time journeys are already quite snug as it is as regular passengers and students vie for space. I believe it is exam season(?) so the school/college students who currently use the train service will still need to travel.

Oh definitely! The 34 I was on just yesterday coming out of Woking towards Guildford during the afternoon/evening peak was absolutely rammed.

 

[WY Bus Spotter]

As mentioned in post #5: Keighley - Leeds (7)60 is usually a very busy route when trains have been cancelled for whatever reason. I expect the Bradford - Leeds X6 to be rammed; though it usually is anyway, especially with the current outlandish frequency reductions.

 

[MotCO]

What chances are there that double deckers will replace single deckers where possible, or duplicates operated?

I remember years ago during national rail strikes catching Metrobus 705 from Westerham to London Victoria. Olympian buses often replaced the coaches, and on at least one occasion, their long wheelbase Olympian coach was used.

 

[DanNCL]

Go North East 21, 56, X10 and X21. The fomer two of those are packed out even without any rail passengers on them.

Arriva Durham 7 and X12. Both would need to be exclusively allocated deckers if they're to manage all of the rail passengers.

Arriva Northumberland X15 is the only bus link from Berwick to anywhere outside of Northumberland in England so will likely be packed.

Stagecoach North East X24 will be busy but I think it may just about manage with the rail passengers.

 

[Geordie driver]

What chances are there that double deckers will replace single deckers where possible, or duplicates operated?

Slim to zero. Bus companies don't have loads of drivers and spare double deckers sitting around in the event of a rail strike, they struggle to cover their services as it is.

From the title, there is no such thing as "too many passengers" as far as the bus companies are concerned, a full bus is full and likely to be profitable.

 

[43055]

What chances are there that double deckers will replace single deckers where possible, or duplicates operated?

I remember years ago during national rail strikes catching Metrobus 705 from Westerham to London Victoria. Olympian buses often replaced the coaches, and on at least one occasion, their long wheelbase Olympian coach was used.

Ultimately will depend on the company and fleet availability/use ect.

 

[northwichcat]

Slim to zero. Bus companies don't have loads of drivers and spare double deckers sitting around in the event of a rail strike, they struggle to cover their services as it is.

From the title, there is no such thing as "too many passengers" as far as the bus companies are concerned, a full bus is full and likely to be profitable.

A number of operators do have old ex-London deckers that don't see much use other than school and college runs. Warrington's Own Buses are a good example of this.

I would say if people are left behind and the next bus isn't for an hour then there's too many passengers. In such instances passengers could be demanding refunds on day and weekly tickets.

 

[WM Bus]

I guess the X1 and X2 would be busy as well if there are no trains from Birmingham to International Airport/NEC or Solihull.

 

[Simon75]

Would rail replacement buses be used too ?

 

[markymark2000]

10 & 10A Liverpool to St Helens, if Northern is badly affected
61 & 68 Blackpool to Preston buses
125 Bolton-Chorley-Preston
8 Manchester-Bolton
320 & 352 St Helens-Wigan
40 & 41 Preston-Lancaster
Many many more

What you have done there is just list some random routes which happen to have the same destinations as the train, not put any logic into it.

10/10A, won't be that busy. It wasn't last time Northern were off.
68 I don't think will get too busy. I think on the South line but the 61 could generate some passengers.
125 avoids most of the train line. While it runs parallel, it is quite far from the train line and so people would be travelling some distance to connect to the train. I think there could be a few gained from the train but I don't think it would be in any serious numbers.
320, maybe some but again, don't think it would be any sizable numbers. 352 would be unlikely to get anything except on Ormskirk Road but that would be a trickle anyway. Plus the amount of other routes, 352 will probably be unaffected.
40/41, won on earth is going to see these as a viable option 1 hour 20 bus versus 20 minute train journey. Plus how many people are actually travelling Lancaster to Preston? Most passengers on this section are through passengers and those boarding/alighting do so for Scotland or London, not for the local journey.

Slim to zero. Bus companies don't have loads of drivers and spare double deckers sitting around in the event of a rail strike, they struggle to cover their services as it is.

From the title, there is no such thing as "too many passengers" as far as the bus companies are concerned, a full bus is full and likely to be profitable.

Some have more deckers sitting around than others. Depends how servere their cuts are/have been. Stagecoach Merseyside division has a good few spares because their cuts have been quite big to services. I'd say in the region of 20 spare deckers which, if absolutely needed, could replace single deckers. I don't think Merseyside will be too badly affected but the point being that depending on their driver shortage situation, they may have plenty of deckers spare. Some may already be boosting single decker routes with double deckers just because they can and they have the availability to do so.

Would rail replacement buses be used too ?

I don't think they will really. TOCs don't normally like doing that sort of thing because it can lead to the bus drivers getting caught up in it. With all of the news, people will be replanning their journeys already and even if TOCs can get buses in place, the amount of people using them would probably be quite low with the vastly increased journey time. To find enough buses as well to cover, bearing in mind how widespread this is, you just simply wouldn't be able to.

The only place where buses could be useful I think would be with TFW on some lines like Chester - Manchester or Shrewsbury - Birmingham for example as they will be carrying many more people (depending on the signallers and station staff striking) and so they will end up with full train after full train and there are only so many full trains with people left on the platform before it kicks off. Therefore I think there could be some potential here for buses just to try and save arguements and every single train being full to bursting (after all, anyone who is able to travel, will make full use of the surviving trains).

 

[Geordie driver]

A number of operators do have old ex-London deckers that don't see much use other than school and college runs. Warrington's Own Buses are a good example of this.

I would say if people are left behind and the next bus isn't for an hour then there's too many passengers. In such instances passengers could be demanding refunds on day and weekly tickets.

Spare buses doesn't equate to spare drivers. Drivers are either clocked off for long periods or have other routes to cover. When I worked for a company that used to clock me off for long periods they would get very short shrift if they asked me to help out as they needed drivers.

There seems to be an assumption that helping out to get people where they want to go is what bus companies exist for, often an enthusiasts view.

It's not.

 

[northwichcat]

Spare buses doesn't equate to spare drivers. Drivers are either clocked off for long periods or have other routes to cover. When I worked for a company that used to clock me off for long periods they would get very short shrift if they asked me to help out as they needed drivers.

I wasn't implying the deckers could run extra services. I was implying that most of that operator's services are single deckers and there might be the possibly of using a double decker on some of the services at times when they aren't needed on school/college services (leaving the single deckers parked up out-of-use instead). In the case of Warrington's Own Buses they often have spare buses sat at Warrington Bus Station and their depot is only just around the corner.