Models for the cost of car ownership

[Starmill]

The issue will be that bloody aunt / uncle who always rocks up ‘needing’ a full charge for their half hour trip home, but then doesn’t offer the same when you visit them. A bit like when you lay on the full works for dinner for them, but they don’t bring a bottle of wine and proceed to drink all of yours, and then when you go to theirs you get a cup of tea and a biscuit if you’re lucky.

Not that you'd have personal experience of course?

 

[Bald Rick]

Not that you'd have personal experience of course?

Definitely not. Purely hypothetical !

Deep breaths @Bald Rick, deep breaths don't get yourself too worked up

It’s been over a decade now. But as many of you know, I do bear a grudge....

 

[plugwash]

Functioning usefully, yes. Plenty of data out there that shows Teslas lose between 5-10% of battery capacity by 100,000 miles. You can expect other manufacturers’ vehicles to be similar.

I would expect other long-range EVs to be similar, but I can see the battery packs in shorter-range EVs taking far more of a pounding because a typical trip will use a much large proportion of the battery capacity.

I suspect this is especially likely to be an issue with PHEVs

 

[PeterC]

I would expect other long-range EVs to be similar, but I can see the battery packs in shorter-range EVs taking far more of a pounding because a typical trip will use a much large proportion of the battery capacity.

I suspect this is especially likely to be an issue with PHEVs

With batteries built into the car will changing one be like needing a new phone battery was about a decade ago. "Sorry, that model is out of production"

 

[DelW]

With batteries built into the car will changing one be like needing a new phone battery was about a decade ago. "Sorry, that model is out of production"

While it might be the case that like-for-like replacements are not available for older cars, I'd think there will be specialist companies that will be able to adapt the car to take an available battery type.

There are small companies now whose business is converting classic petrol cars to full electric use, which is a much more complex task. One such regularly features on one of the more obscure Freeview channels.

 

[PeterC]

While it might be the case that like-for-like replacements are not available for older cars, I'd think there will be specialist companies that will be able to adapt the car to take an available battery type.

There are small companies now whose business is converting classic petrol cars to full electric use, which is a much more complex task. One such regularly features on one of the more obscure Freeview channels.

At a price.

 

[The Ham]

85% compared to 79% isn't a huge difference especially when you bear in mind:

1 - 1-2% of that difference would be people learning to drive later in life, I agree with you that most learn under 30 but it's not that rare to learn later, I know a few people who have

2 - London, the city with by far the best public transport and cycling infrastructure in the UK, also has an age demographic heavily skewed towards the younger end

3 - On the other side of the coin, rural population, where car ownership is pretty much essential, tends to be older than urban areas generally (not just London).

In 2000 the number with a full license aged 20-30 was 75%, 10 years later those aged 30-40 were about 83% and then has gone up to 86% for 40-50 10 years later.

Conversely in 2008 20-30's was 64% and then 10 years later 30-40 was 76%, carry that forwards another 10 years and the 40-50 would either need 9% to pass their test to match that 85% with a full driving license or the numbers would likely fall to about 79% (+3%).

Rural populations are aging very fast (mostly due to fewer young people and those who do exist going to urban areas), with high house prices forcing the issue for many (even if they wished to stay).

There's also the (typically) bigger concern for the environment amongst the young, and so other things which have historically been desirable are starting to be less attractive. For instance living in a listed house, for many who are younger they aren't that bothered and would probably be put off such a property if it had a very poor energy rating.

Compare that to the mindset of some (not that long ago) where it was status symbol to have an outdoor heated pool and keep it warm all year round as it showed that they could afford to do so.

I'm not saying that car use will disappear overnight, rather that there's starting to be a trend away from having multiple cars in a household in younger people (in part as housing costs are so high, so an extra £500/year saved on travel costs can make a big difference when you're thinking that you'll likely need a larger home at some point).

Likewise there's less desire to go and live somewhere rural and if they do they go to a town or large village with the facilities they need so that a car isn't so much a necessity.

They are also more likely to get their DIY materials delivered, rather than driving to get them. Likewise they'll do their online supermarket order in a spare 30 minutes and get it delivered - as they'll have their favourites and they know that 50% of what they get is the same most weeks. If they miss something then it's a small top up shop which is easy enough to do walking/cycling or as part of their other driving (i.e. on the way to/from work).

WFH is likely to change the number of multiple cars again, why own two cars when the second car is mostly so the kids can do swimming/dance/drama/football on 2 days in the week. When you can open one car and someone WFH those days to allow the car to be used for those activities.

Yes there'll be times when a second car would be useful, however you'd need a lot of them to justify that extra car. Even if you used taxis for those trips.

My guess is that for most people visiting friends / family it will become generally accepted to recharge if needed. Taking the cost of a few quids worth of electricity off them is no different conceptually to taking the cost of the food / drink etc often provided at such visits.

The issue will be that bloody aunt / uncle who always rocks up ‘needing’ a full charge for their half hour trip home, but then doesn’t offer the same when you visit them. A bit like when you lay on the full works for dinner for them, but they don’t bring a bottle of wine and proceed to drink all of yours, and then when you go to theirs you get a cup of tea and a biscuit if you’re lucky.

What was someone saying about niche examples and extrapolating?!?!

In seriousness, in that situation it's likely that my main wall charger would almost always be in use when they came around and they could charge off a wall plug (giving them just enough to get to a public charger/home).

Doing so would keep your costs down.

As to the issue of not having driveway parking (raised by others), most new build flats (even in places like Buckinghamshire) have to have provision for at least 10% of spaces to have chargers with a further 10% needing passive provision (ducts between the spaces and a suitable power supply).

Generally, to avoid issues about flat 12 having a charger and 11 not, these are typically being provided on the visitor spaces. However in time is likely that more will start to be provided to individual properties (especially once the requirements for provision increase, which is likely in the next few years).

I wouldn't be surprised if developers started to offer them as a costed add on (like doorbells are for some of the developers! - although to be fair to some that's to have a Ring doorbell rather thana basic one, but for others it's to have a doorbell at all). Even without an electric car there would be those who would think that having a charger would make it easier to sell and so the extra cost was worth it.

 

[Bald Rick]

I wouldn't be surprised if developers started to offer them as a costed add on

It was certainly Government policy to change planning guidance such that all new residential developments with parking must have car charging. Government consulted on it in 2019.

 

[telstarbox]

At a suburban Tesco tonight. 4 cars can charge while people do their shopping.

It was certainly Government policy to change planning guidance such that all new residential developments with parking must have car charging. Government consulted on it in 2019.

As I've said before, 90% of developments (and redevelopments of existing sites) will now have passive provision as a minimum. Many will have chargers from day 1.

 

[cactustwirly]

At a suburban Tesco tonight. 4 cars can charge while people do their shopping.


As I've said before, 90% of developments (and redevelopments of existing sites) will now have passive provision as a minimum. Many will have chargers from day 1.

How many other spaces are there on the car park?
I suspect it's a lot more than 4...

 

[Bletchleyite]

With batteries built into the car will changing one be like needing a new phone battery was about a decade ago. "Sorry, that model is out of production"

There won't be much case to replace them. Typically an ICE car is on the road for 10-15 years or so at most, give or take classics which are kept going out of love for far longer than economically sensible. EV batteries look like they will last about the same, with some deterioration of capacity. That fits with the way ICE cars age - most older cars are purchased as (or if with the same owner, downgraded to) second-car "runarounds" where a large capacity won't be as important. If 200 miles is going to be typical for a new EV, even if it degrades by 50% over that life (so down to 100 miles) that is still loads for a runaround that does the shops once a week and maybe the odd longer leisure trip where stopping for a coffee while it fast-charges won't be a problem.

Like most things involving EVs, it's either a non-issue or will increasingly be so.

How many other spaces are there on the car park?
I suspect it's a lot more than 4...

What is the proportion of EVs at present where the owners don't have a driveway so will be charging at home? 4/200 (say, I'm guessing at 200 spaces in a suburban non-Extra Tesco?) sounds about right to me. EVs are presently a premium thing, and people with lots of money tend to have houses with driveways.

The number of chargers will increase with demand.

 

[telstarbox]

One thing with the pandemic / WFH is that people now shop at different times so supermarket car parks built in the 90s are no longer full. So that creates space to play with for EV and other stuff.

 

[Factotum]

Some further considerations...

I completely agree different people have different requirements depending on life circumstances and we shouldn't generalise about what ought to be appropriate for everyone

A further consideration, which I don't think has been mentioned, is that some of us can work on a rail journey. My work was charged at £50 per hour. So on a journey to London I could earn £100 which goes a very long way, even more than the whole way, to cover the fare