More evidence seroprevelance of Sars-CoV-2 has been underestimated

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yorkie

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57409973?amp/

About 8 in 10 adults in the UK had antibodies to coronavirus by 17 May, according to the Office for National Statistics

However it wasn't until 2 around weeks later that we achieved a 75% vaccination rate:

Over three quarters of UK adults have been vaccinated with a first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine

Furthermore, it generally takes at least 14 days for body to produce detectable levels of antibodies; by 3 May we had achieved 34.7 million adults, out of over 52 million, vaccinated (Ok there may be a slight delay with report dates but that would be more than offset by those who took longer to build up detectable antibody levels):

People who have recieved 1st dose vaccinations by report date
03 May United Kingdom total: 34,667,904

So that's around 67%, leaving a difference of around 13%, which is around 7 million adults alone (i.e. we are not including children in these calculations) who had detectable antibody levels through prior infection (not vaccination) at the time this latest study was produced.

And yet detectable antibody levels are often short-lived, so many of those who were infected in the "first wave" will be excluded from those figures (which will add many more millions to those who have immunity).

Furthermore, higher antibody levels are associated with more severe symptoms, while those who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms may not even register detectable antibody levels, so even more people will have immunity than can be detected by an antibody test alone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873
Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers.
The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.


This provides yet more evidence that many millions of people had the virus without a positive test; the vast majority of these will have been mild cases of course, as people with more severe symptoms are far more likely to have taken a test.

It's important to note that we cannot prevent infections of Sars-CoV-2, but we don't need to! What matters is that the body produces memory B and C cells; the B cells are capable of producing antibodies as and when required.

Our bodies do not produce antibodies for viruses to which we have adaptive immunity against unless we encounter the pathogen but some people think that we have loads of antibodies for every pathogen we have ever encountered constantly circulating in our bodies which is completely and utterly false.

This is all good news as it means many more cases must be asymptomatic or extremely mild and we have a higher proportion of the population with immunity, than the official figures suggest and some people erroneously thought.
 
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kristiang85

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This provides yet more evidence that many millions of people had the virus without a positive test; the vast majority of these will have been mild cases of course, as people with more severe symptoms are far more likely to have taken a test.

This is especially evident in the 'have you had COVID' thread - 31.6% said that they had symptoms but never had them tested. Now this is a tiny sample just using this forum, and we might be more test-adverse than most, but even if the national number is a third of that, it is still huge.
 

P Binnersley

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According to the the latest Flu & COVID Surveillance Report, 15.6% or people have antibodies from having had COVID (not the vaccine). This is based on over 17's. If this is representative of the whole population then 10 million people have had COVID. Just over twice the 4.5 million who have tested positive.
 

yorkie

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According to the the latest Flu & COVID Surveillance Report, 15.6% or people have antibodies from having had COVID (not the vaccine). This is based on over 17's. If this is representative of the whole population then 10 million people have had COVID. Just over twice the 4.5 million who have tested positive.
I'd word it differently; I'd say 10 million people have been infected with Sars-CoV-2 recently.

It will be much more overall, given how rapidly detectable antibody levels can wane.

I believe that many people who are infected with Sars-CoV-2 do not get any disease, to the extent I believe it is probably the case that most people infected are asymptomatic, and not the one third that the Government likes to claim.
 

Bayum

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This is especially evident in the 'have you had COVID' thread - 31.6% said that they had symptoms but never had them tested. Now this is a tiny sample just using this forum, and we might be more test-adverse than most, but even if the national number is a third of that, it is still huge.
Was just about to make that point. There will be large numbers of people who just haven’t bothered to get a confirmatory PCR test. I’ve got a temperature, I’ve got a horrid dry barking cough, I don’t need a test to tell me what it is type thing.
 

DelayRepay

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Was just about to make that point. There will be large numbers of people who just haven’t bothered to get a confirmatory PCR test. I’ve got a temperature, I’ve got a horrid dry barking cough, I don’t need a test to tell me what it is type thing.
And also the fact that for much of Spring/Summer last year, we didn't have capacity to test all the symptomatic people. Compared to now where we are actively encouraging asymptomatic people to do regular Lateral Flow tests, and in areas with high case numbers they are encouraging all adults to get a PCR test regardless of symptoms as part of the surge testing.

Am I right to think that someone who had previously been infected, then got infected again would test positive, even though their immune system was able to deal with it so they didn't show any symptoms as a result of the second infection?

What would be interesting to see is how many of the people who tested positive recently actually had symptoms (or other good reason to believe they had Covid, e.g. a household member had it), vs being picked up through regular LFD testing/surge testing without any signs of illness.
 

Trackman

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What would be interesting to see is how many of the people who tested positive recently actually had symptoms (or other good reason to believe they had Covid, e.g. a household member had it), vs being picked up through regular LFD testing/surge testing without any signs of illness.
The data must be out there, I was recently surge tested and filled out an online form asking questions like above.
 

kristiang85

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Susan Michie says we need masks and distancing ‘forever’ though.

She is a complete deluisionist with hyper-socialist fantasies undelying her 'scientific' bleatings who cannot be taken seriously.
 

Yew

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She is a complete deluisionist with hyper-socialist fantasies undelying her 'scientific' bleatings who cannot be taken seriously.
I can get onboard with some hyper-socialism, it's the health-fascisim I'm less fond of.

Perhaps we should follow the lead of the largest Nordic democratic-socialist country, Sweden...
 

kristiang85

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I can get onboard with some hyper-socialism, it's the health-fascisim I'm less fond of.

Perhaps we should follow the lead of the largest Nordic democratic-socialist country, Sweden...

What I meant was that she lets her desire for political change cloud her health policy reasoning, and even Sweden would baulk at the Communist Party.

Did you hear her comparing wearing masks to picking up dog poo today? She's mad.
 

Mojo

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Was just about to make that point. There will be large numbers of people who just haven’t bothered to get a confirmatory PCR test. I’ve got a temperature, I’ve got a horrid dry barking cough, I don’t need a test to tell me what it is type thing.
I find the suggestion that people “can’t be bothered” to get a test quite insulting. I was one of the many people in March last year that was ill but wasn’t able to have a test because the NHS was not providing them back then.

A cynic would suggest this was a deliberate government policy to ensure maximum compliance with the rules they decided to implement given the high number of people presumed to have caught the virus last spring.
 

TheBeard

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Yes they are quoting 15% admission rate for Covid before vaccines. But they've "forgotten" about all those who had Covid back in MArch 2020 or so. The rate was still overwhelming, but if 10+million or so had it then, the sums simply don't add up. There is the large number of sleeper patients, who didn't get more than a cold. I am not underestimating the huge impact and devastation this has and will cause, but simply wish to pull up Official government scientists if they can't do simple sums and be fully honest.
 

Bayum

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I find the suggestion that people “can’t be bothered” to get a test quite insulting. I was one of the many people in March last year that was ill but wasn’t able to have a test because the NHS was not providing them back then.

A cynic would suggest this was a deliberate government policy to ensure maximum compliance with the rules they decided to implement given the high number of people presumed to have caught the virus last spring.
Why? You couldn’t get a test at the very start of the pandemic when there were very few available. That’s changed considerably now.
 
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