New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

[Snow1964]

There have been threads in the past (now locked)

Today DfT released some numbers and it included this (national rail excluding Elizabeth line) latest period 3rd Feb to 2nd March

Passenger journeys in the week ending Sunday 2 March 2025 were 91% of those observed in the equivalent week in 2019. In the current publishing period, weekly average usage figures have been between 81% to 98%, compared to 71% to 90% in the last publishing period. These figures exclude Elizabeth Line services usage.

If some days are at 98% of 5 years ago (pre covid) then surely there must be pressure to restore some of the cut services, or is there a deliberate policy of making rail overcrowded and unattractive option these days if capacity is struggling.

Wondered what others think, especially when some operators eg SWR are running half hourly 8car trains (which 5 years ago were every 15 minutes and 10cars). Yesterday my local line had some 2car Cardiff-Portsmouth trains at evening peak hour (which 5 years ago were 5car), all seems inconsistent with average usage of upto 98% of pre covid.

The cynic in me also wonders why these have been slipped out quietly, along with other releases on a Wednesday lunchtime (when everyone is focused on Primeministers Questions).

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

 

[Jan Mayen]

I assume shorter/fewer trains is more to keep costs down, as (presumably) the Government (of any colour) regards the subsidy as too high.

 

[Class 317]

There have been threads in the past (now locked)

Today DfT released some numbers and it included this (national rail excluding Elizabeth line) latest period 3rd Feb to 2nd March



If some days are at 98% of 5 years ago (pre covid) then surely there must be pressure to restore some of the cut services, or is there a deliberate policy of making rail overcrowded and unattractive option these days if capacity is struggling.

Wondered what others think, especially when some operators eg SWR are running half hourly 8car trains (which 5 years ago were every 15 minutes and 10cars). Yesterday my local line had some 2car Cardiff-Portsmouth trains at evening peak hour (which 5 years ago were 5car), all seems inconsistent with average usage of upto 98% of pre covid.

The cynic in me also wonders why these have been slipped out quietly, along with other releases on a Wednesday lunchtime (when everyone is focused on Primeministers Questions).

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

Don't forget that travel patterns will have changed and headline figures hide the details of this. Just because a train was x long before doesn't mean it needs to be now.

Obviously if passenger numbers are getting that high but averaging around 10% or more lower peak trains might not need to be so long.

 

[Snow1964]

Don't forget that travel patterns will have changed and headline figures hide the details of this. Just because a train was x long before doesn't mean it needs to be now.

Obviously if passenger numbers are getting that high but averaging around 10% or more lower peak trains might not need to be so long.

I was thinking if it averaging 91%, and we know some commuter lines are believed to be about 25-30% down, then there must be a number of lines well over 100% to get that average, maybe 115%+

Just because one line can survive with shorter formations, doesn't explain the apparent lack of action on those that have bounced back, and grown.

 

[devon_belle]

If some days are at 98% of 5 years ago (pre covid) then surely there must be pressure to restore some of the cut services

Agreed. Definitely needed in my experience as a commuter. Given how much stock has been scrapped, it is worrying to think how high numbers may be by the time any future new stock orders are delivered and in service...

 

[12LDA28C]

I was thinking if it averaging 91%, and we know some commuter lines are believed to be about 25-30% down, then there must be a number of lines well over 100% to get that average, maybe 115%+

Just because one line can survive with shorter formations, doesn't explain the apparent lack of action on those that have bounced back, and grown.

It's been reported for some time that a few TOCs are already experiencing passenger numbers well in excess of pre-Covid levels such as LNER and EMR.

 

[Oxfordblues]

I suspect the proliferation of split-ticketing might have slightly inflated the statistics.

 

[Bald Rick]

Don’t forget that across the network as a whole, and excluding the Elizabeth Line, the reduction in service provision is partly offset by longer trains / higher capacity trains on some routes. Without going into detail, the numbers I see regular show that the vehicle miles provided as a % compared to 2019 is several percent higher than the % of services run compared to 2019.

 

[dk1]

I suspect the proliferation of split-ticketing might have slightly inflated the statistics.

That’s was happening long before the pandemic though.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Back in the day - the DfT would contractually moniter PIXC reports for peak workings (Passengers in Excess of capacity) and there were "reasonable endeavours" regarding off peak services. Having been both sides of the table , I used to take a key interest in both - for example making sure there were 8 cars south of Northampton on Silverlink County trains off peak (coupling and uncoupling) , plus 8 cars to Brum throughout when needed. Ditto "Peak busters to Watford Junction on the main line and between Stratford - Camden Road on the North London.

Presume the 130% rule still applies for peak loadings.(an ex NSE standard)

 

[Class 170101]

Presume the 130% rule still applies for peak loadings.(an ex NSE standard)

Do you mean 30% standing?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Yes ......for 15 mins I recall..........

 

[Kite159]

That’s was happening long before the pandemic though.

Probably not as much as it is these days, especially with Trainline offering splits on the app without informing some passengers they are getting sold split tickets.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I will study these figures tonight, but on balance after a quick glance I am encouraged.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you mean 30% standing?

Yes ......for 15 mins I recall..........

20 minutes guv. Hence why St Albans - London trains never make the stats of busiest trains even when there’s 1500 people on with 666 seats!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

20 minutes guv. Hence why St Albans - London trains never make the stats of busiest trains even when there’s 1500 people on with 666 seats!

That seems sneaky to me!

 

[JonathanH]

Do you mean 30% standing?

Presumably that 30% guideline is long gone now that trains have fewer seats and more standing area than they did in that era?

 

[Bald Rick]

Presumably that 30% guideline is long gone now that trains have fewer seats and more standing area than they did in that era?

It’s still there, albeit varies depending on the rolling stock.

Full details via the link below, lots of info there but the key passage is:

The allowance for standing varies with the type of rolling stock. For most train operators the standing allowance is based on an allowance of 0.45 metres squared of floor space per passenger. However, a figure of 0.4 metres squared is used for Great Western Railway’s stock, 0.35 metres squared is used for Southeastern’s class 376 ‘metro’ style stock, London Overground’s ‘metro’ style stock and South Western Railway commuter stock (0.25 metres squared prior to autumn 2017).

In some cases train operators do not have standing capacities calculated for their rolling stock based on the available floor area. In these cases the standing capacities have been estimated as 20% of the number of standard class seats for long distance rolling stock, and 35% of the number of standard class seats for commuter rolling stock (rounded down to the nearest integer if this calculation gives a decimal figure). These estimates have been used for Transport for Wales Rail, CrossCountry, East Midlands Railway, London North Eastern Railway and Avanti West Coast.

Rail passenger numbers and crowding statistics: notes and definitions

www.gov.uk

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It’s still there.

Is there the drive to comply with it now like there was pre covid? On my route people regularly stand for more than 20mins but for many thats a choice rather than squash in between two people so of course it would never be classified as PIXC.

 

[Bald Rick]

Is there the drive to comply with it now like there was pre covid? On my route people regularly stand for more than 20mins but for many thats a choice rather than squash in between two people so of course it would never be classified as PIXC.

It’s one of those indicators that a TOC can’t do much about, given who controls the spend.

 

[A S Leib]

I suspect the proliferation of split-ticketing might have slightly inflated the statistics.

What are the equivalent passenger rail mileage statistics / when should that for the equivalent period be published, as split ticketing wouldn't affect that?

 

[OneOfThe48]

It’s one of those indicators that a TOC can’t do much about, given who controls the spend.

Exactly, can see how the conversation would go

DfT: You have too many people standing on your peak trains. You need to do something about this.

TOC: Here’s a proposal to buy extra trains and introduce extra services to reduce standing levels, can we have the money to fund it?

DfT: No, it would be too expensive. We need to decrease your costs, not massively increase them.

 

[The exile]

Yesterday my local line had some 2car Cardiff-Portsmouth trains at evening peak hour (which 5 years ago were 5car),

I remember the joys of 2 and 3 car peak hour Cardiff - Pompeys in 2019 as well - it’s not a new thing (IIRC the strengthening to 5 cars - which often didn’t happen - was new in the short-lived 2019-20 timetable.)

 

[A S Leib]

I remember the joys of 2 and 3 car peak hour Cardiff - Pompeys in 2019 as well - it’s not a new thing (IIRC the strengthening to 5 cars - which often didn’t happen - was new in the short-lived 2019-20 timetable.)

I don't think that will be changing quickly, at least not to the point that there won't be any 2-car Portsmouth – Cardiff services (from the thread on GWR 175s

Will be 68 class 175 vehicles with GWR

Although there are few spares, these days only 3 Castle HSTs in use same time, so just 3 x 4car = 12 (ignoring power cars) replaced.

Depending on how you count it there are about seven 5car IETs (Cardiff - Exeter, and Bristol - Worcester) is 35 vehicles released

The expanded Cornwall metro needs extra 2 vehicles (winter), but ideally nearer 6 extra (summer) when trains are busier.

I am hearing a number of services in Bristol area and South West are running well above 2019 (pre-covid) levels, some lines are 120%+ (but don't have definitive numbers). So probably close to needing extra carriage added to handful of diagrams

There are about 8-10 class 158, 165, 166 vehicles semi-permanently out of use due to lack of spares. As they never seem to be able to sort the spares, might as well assume one of each class is withdrawn and needs replacing (in practice, even if refused on paper), so lets say 8 vehicles to replace these dead units.

At the moment majority of Cardiff-Portsmouth services are 3car turbos, converting all 8 diagrams to 4car 158s would require upto 8 more vehicles, or 16 if adding 2 vehicles each. But as handful run as 4 or 5car already, its nearer 12 extra vehicles to make them all 5car. (Actually GWR doesn't have enough 158s for 8 x 5car + spares, so likely to still be some turbos).

The under construction Oakhampton Interchange, is likely to mean 2 or 3 diagrams need extra coach due to busyness.

Unless my maths is dismal, 68 vehicles cannot cover all this, so clearly something is not going to get lengthened services, or some of the IETs will have to continue covering even after all the 175s are in service.

Unless anyone knows differently, after the 175s, nothing is due for GWR until 2029 or 2030 when replacement of the 15x and 16x DMUs starts, so could continue to be a stock shortfall. Even more so if services to Henbury and Portishead do well and need longer trains. No idea which services get displaced 16x DMUs

 

[Stephen42]

If some days are at 98% of 5 years ago (pre covid) then surely there must be pressure to restore some of the cut services, or is there a deliberate policy of making rail overcrowded and unattractive option these days if capacity is struggling.

Wondered what others think, especially when some operators eg SWR are running half hourly 8car trains (which 5 years ago were every 15 minutes and 10cars). Yesterday my local line had some 2car Cardiff-Portsmouth trains at evening peak hour (which 5 years ago were 5car), all seems inconsistent with average usage of upto 98% of pre covid.

The cynic in me also wonders why these have been slipped out quietly, along with other releases on a Wednesday lunchtime (when everyone is focused on Primeministers Questions).

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

It doesn't say some days are at 98% instead referring to "In the current publishing period, weekly average usage figures have been between 81% to 98%". These are figures for a rolling weekly average, the 98% is a single value the next highest value is 95%. That 98% figure is surrounded by 89% and 93% on either side.

These are huge swings for a rolling average. Putting a simplified example where in pre-pandemic each day sold 100 tickets and that 98% figure was from selling 98 tickets each day. To get 89% for the rolling figure the day before the 98 tickets would be replaced by just 35 tickets. For the 93% after the 98 tickets would be replaced by 61 tickets. These are massive day on day variations so it's far more likely to be timing differences in measurement than behaviour, the methodology note says there are some lump sum adjustments which may explain it.

Averaging the rolling average to avoid timing differences that gives 91%. The first week of the most recent period may be that chunk lower due to the storms/flooding at the end of January so I've ignored that. For context excluding Elizabeth line in July - August 2024 passenger vehicle km was 93% of five years ago - maybe we need to shorten/remove some trains!

More seriously, these are high level statistics and crowding will only be on a proportion of services. The average train vehicle across all points in its journey has fewer than 20 people onboard (July - August 2024), some will be lower and others will be much higher. Targeting where services and vehicles are deployed can make a difference to crowding without changing the overall capacity provision. Removing duplicative lightly loaded services can reduce overall capacity but keep crowding the same. Reducing services or vehicles on a busy route at its most crowded point will increase crowding and lower overall capacity provision. These numbers alone don't give any sense of the situation and particularly for the DfT published series the volatility makes interpretations more challenging too.

 

[infobleep]

Don’t forget that across the network as a whole, and excluding the Elizabeth Line, the reduction in service provision is partly offset by longer trains / higher capacity trains on some routes. Without going into detail, the numbers I see regular show that the vehicle miles provided as a % compared to 2019 is several percent higher than the % of services run compared to 2019.

Whilst I'm aure this is true in some areas, I'm not aware of longer trains on the Portsmouth Direct or New Line Guildford.

 

[josh-j]

At the end of the day, if capacity was increased and spending improved* I'm sure we'd get higher than the old 100%. I can only imagine that any failure to do so is about penny pinching resulting from inability to understand that investment in public services is good and pays for itself economically.

* Public transport spending is way too low considering what should be a transport policy aimed at encouraging modal shift, especially for environmental reasons.

 

[davetheguard]

Exactly, can see how the conversation would go

DfT: You have too many people standing on your peak trains. You need to do something about this.

TOC: Here’s a proposal to buy extra trains and introduce extra services to reduce standing levels, can we have the money to fund it?

DfT: No, it would be too expensive. We need to decrease your costs, not massively increase them.

Spot on, but you forgot the next line:

DfT: So we'll jack the prices up to price people off & reduce demand.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

The 20 min rule plus PIXC measurement is probably best considered to be a 'guideline for action' but, given options tend to be difficult/expensive, often very little can be done other than altering stopping patterns a bit to shuffle demand around. It's not a rule, even though it is often written up as such.

The actual policy that DfT seems to have followed the past 15 years or so is to encourage new rolling stock to have more standing space/less seats, ie. the c700s, the c319s refurbs and the C376s on SE. Or to palm the problem of to others (TfL takeover of the 'E-lines' and all the former DC lines inners that Chief Planner clearly remembers in the golden age of Silverlink who, indeed, worked wonders on what had been a really poor bit of railway under BR).

Recall that the '20 min rule' dates from the late 80s when the NSE norm was that outersuburban pax, at least, should have a seat and 3+2 seating (with all its problems of slow boarding/alighting as people struggle to get into the seats) was in vogue. When new fleets are ordered (C465/6s, next, presumably, it would be sensible to continue with this approach. The inner suburban system has become much more like the tube than it was in Sir Herbert Walker's day!

That said, the growth in peak demand still has quite a geographic component -- not all lines are back to 91% of pre-Covid levels. SWR, Chiltern and GW don't seem to be too full at all, overall!

 

[John R]

What are the equivalent passenger rail mileage statistics / when should that for the equivalent period be published, as split ticketing wouldn't affect that?

The next quarterly stats, which are much more detailed than the simple snapshot referred to in this thread is out on the 20th March, and will be for the period to December.