2022 Conservative Leadership Election - Liz Truss chosen as party leader (and subsequent reshuffle)

[brad465]

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1554927976680198144

Interesting, Braverman would be an even worse Home Secretary than Patel.


We shouldn't completely underestimate Truss and I'm certain the Tories will be narrowly ahead in a few weeks as the Labour lead has already collapsed.

Things could still unravel for Truss by December though.

A large part of the poll collapse in Tory support was due to Johnson's liability. He's now gone, and a new leader almost always gets a poll bounce. What happens with the polls in future will depend on the party conferences and how this winter pans out from an energy bills and other costs' point of view. I suspect the conferences will favour Tory polling, as Truss will be fresh in the job and giving a rousing speech, while a winter fuel cost crisis would favour Labour if Truss continues the insufficient support provided so far, and Labour suggest key proposals to help, even if they're not the best ones possible.

 

[nw1]

A large part of the poll collapse in Tory support was due to Johnson's liability. He's now gone, and a new leader almost always gets a poll bounce. What happens with the polls in future will depend on the party conferences and how this winter pans out from an energy bills and other costs' point of view. I suspect the conferences will favour Tory polling, as Truss will be fresh in the job and giving a rousing speech, while a winter fuel cost crisis would favour Labour if Truss continues the insufficient support provided so far, and Labour suggest key proposals to help, even if they're not the best ones possible.

Truss to my mind is like a boring version of Johnson without the "character", and perhaps rather more ideological than him. IMO, not someone you'd really expect to be leading in the polls, and if they do, once Johnson has gone, it says, to me, worrying things about the current state of UK politics and an indication we're stuck in a right-wing rut.

Have said this already, but I really hope there isn't yet another Tory majority in 2024. To me it seems Truss has no intention whatsoever to change the direction of the Tories, and theories of Braverman as home secretary (while still theories at this stage) do not inspire me with confidence.

 

[Lost property]

Truss to my mind is like a boring version of Johnson without the "character", and perhaps rather more ideological than him. IMO, not someone you'd really expect to be leading in the polls, and if they do, once Johnson has gone, it says, to me, worrying things about the current state of UK politics and an indication we're stuck in a right-wing rut.

Have said this already, but I really hope there isn't yet another Tory majority in 2024. To me it seems Truss has no intention whatsoever to change the direction of the Tories, and theories of Braverman as home secretary (while still theories at this stage) do not inspire me with confidence.

Allow me to amend that please.." we're stuck with a right wing nut "

Braverman is actually the A.G, formerly obscure to the point of nobody really knew who she was until she decided to promote herself in the leadership "contest " and subsequently, clearly flushed with success, has decided she's of some importance and relevance.

The Home Sec is Patel....for now, and, for her, uncharacteristically silent about either of the two incompetents in the contest....thankfully, Nadine is only to happy to confirm that old adage about idiots and their uses .

 

[Acfb]

Allow me to amend that please.." we're stuck with a right wing nut "

Braverman is actually the A.G, formerly obscure to the point of nobody really knew who she was until she decided to promote herself in the leadership "contest " and subsequently, clearly flushed with success, has decided she's of some importance and relevance.

The Home Sec is Patel....for now, and, for her, uncharacteristically silent about either of the two incompetents in the contest....thankfully, Nadine is only to happy to confirm that old adage about idiots and their uses .

I first became aware of her in early 2019 when she was talking about 'cultural marxism'. Really quite a nasty piece of work.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I first became aware of her in early 2019 when she was talking about 'cultural marxism'. Really quite a nasty piece of work.

So I guess you know her personally, do you?

(Because obviously you wouldn't just be dismissing someone as 'a nasty piece of work' purely because you disagree with their opinions, would you...?)

 

[brad465]

Oh dear:

Tory leadership: I took money out of deprived urban areas, says Sunak

Allies of the former chancellor say he changed outdated rules to reflect need in rural areas.

www.bbc.co.uk

A clip has emerged of ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak saying he diverted public money out of "deprived urban areas".
In a video leaked to the New Statesman, the Tory leadership candidate tells an audience in Tunbridge Wells, Kent, that he wanted to ensure "areas like this" got the funding they deserved.
Team Sunak argue he was referring to changing "outdated" formulas to better reflect need in rural areas and towns.
Labour said the leadership race was revealing the Tories' "true colours".
The party's shadow levelling up secretary Lisa Nandy said: "It's scandalous that Rishi Sunak is openly boasting that he fixed the rules to funnel taxpayers' money to prosperous Tory shires.
"This is public money. It should be distributed fairly and spent where it's most needed - not used as a bribe to Tory members."

In the clip - filmed on 29 July - Mr Sunak says: "I managed to start changing the funding formulas, to make sure areas like this are getting the funding they deserve.
"We inherited a bunch of formulas from Labour that shoved all the funding into deprived urban areas and that needed to be undone.
"I started the work of undoing that."
A spokesperson for Mr Sunak said: "Levelling up isn't just about city centres, it's also about towns and rural areas all over the country that need help too."
"Travelling around the country, he's seen non-metropolitan areas that need better bus services, faster broadband in towns, or high quality schools. That's what he'll deliver as prime minister."
And Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen - a Sunak supporter - argued that the former chancellor had been talking about "the local council funding formula and how it discriminated against non-metropolitan areas in favour of cities - by giving them less money for things like adult and children services, highways and fire".
But Environment Minister and Truss ally Lord Goldsmith described Mr Sunak's comment as "one of the weirdest - and dumbest - things I've ever heard from a politician".
A Truss campaign source said: "Levelling up isn't about pitting one area of the country against another, or laying dividing lines between urban v rural, towns v cities.
"It is about unleashing growth and making sure every individual has the chance to thrive. Liz has a plan to create an aspiration nation based on equality of opportunity, and will deliver it in a conservative way."
The comments were made as part of Mr Sunak's campaign bid to replace Boris Johnson as Conservative leader and prime minister.
He is competing against Ms Truss, who polls suggest is more popular among Conservative members.

His chances look next to nil anyway but if the members want to elect someone who could win an election, this leak would on its own demonstrate why Sunak is unlikely to win, especially when it comes to holding onto red wall seats, which tend to be deprived urban areas.

 

[Acfb]

Oh dear:

Tory leadership: I took money out of deprived urban areas, says Sunak

Allies of the former chancellor say he changed outdated rules to reflect need in rural areas.

www.bbc.co.uk

His chances look next to nil anyway but if the members want to elect someone who could win an election, this leak would on its own demonstrate why Sunak is unlikely to win, especially when it comes to holding onto red wall seats, which tend to be deprived urban areas.

I think it's hard to predict how Truss will do in the 'red wall' TBH (even though I believe she will probably do as badly as Johnson in the 'blue wall'). Interestingly she does better against Starmer in 'best PM' ratings than Sunak does, actually 2% ahead of Starmer in yesterday's Redfield Wilton poll compared to Sunak who was 7% behind.

 

[nw1]

Interestingly she does better against Starmer in 'best PM' ratings than Sunak does, actually 2% ahead of Starmer in yesterday's Redfield Wilton poll compared to Sunak who was 7% behind.

Jeez, if British people think Truss is a better PM than Starmer, it shows how far to the right the UK has shifted.

Beginning to wonder seriously whether we won't be out of this hard-right phase until 2030 now.

 

[brad465]

Jeez, if British people think Truss is a better PM than Starmer, it shows how far to the right the UK has shifted.

Beginning to wonder seriously whether we won't be out of this hard-right phase until 2030 now.

I'd be patient and wait for her to actually become PM and then see how she handles things, which will be tough enough for anyone dealing with the upcoming winter, but Truss' track record so far isn't promising.

 

[nw1]

I'd be patient and wait for her to actually become PM and then see how she handles things, which will be tough enough for anyone dealing with the upcoming winter, but Truss' track record so far isn't promising.

Hopefully any "honeymoon period" will be short lived, but you never know.

Just for a bit of light-hearted relief, here is a "fantasy future from hell" for the rest of the decade (not entirely serious but not completely implausible either...)

2022/23 Tory leader "deals" with the cost of living crisis by implementing tax cuts that the country cannot afford, rather than other solutions which might not follow Tory ideology quite so much.

2023 Tory leader keeps recent Tory converts on board by stirring up anger against the EU and migrants, and "dealing with" the "problems" by scrapping all remaining EU laws and extending the Rwanda scheme.

2023/24 Tory leader implements yet more unaffordable tax cuts to attempt to get votes

2024 Tories win a smaller majority, comparable with say 1992, holding on to most Red Wall seats but losing a few places like Winchester to the Lib Dems and losing a few North Wales seats to Labour.

2024-2026 Tories, safe in power for 5 years, implement swingeing spending cuts (the worst of any western nation), partly due to the cost of lockdown and the effects of Brexit but mostly to pay for the tax cuts in 2023/24.

2025-2026 Tories suffer catastrophic drop in support, but the electorate can do little as they're in power until 2029. New Labour leader, Jane Brown, from an unpretentious background and winner of a late 2022 red wall by-election, enjoys a surge in support. As a result, Tories give the PM the "Boris treatment". Leadership election occurs in the summer of 2026.

2026 The 2022 winner is replaced by new Tory leader, Oxford PPE graduate and former Bullingdon club member Charles Cavendish-Smith, winner of the late 2022 Tamworth byelection.
Cavendish-Smith promises to keep the same old populist nonsense going, laced with a healthy dose of good old-fashioned Thatcherism. It works for the Tory membership but the public are not impressed, as he is seen is elite and privileged compared to Jane Brown of Labour, from a more humble background.

2027 Change of leader doesn't cause Tory fortunes to recover. Brown remains popular. Right-wing press start to panic. The dirt is dug up on Brown who is accused (correctly, but it was a long time ago of course) of being a communist while at university in 1987. People start worrying about Brown. Cavendish-Smith gains.

2028 Cavendish-Smith implements tax cuts the country cannot afford.

2029 Tories win a majority once again, albeit a smaller one than 2024, losing quite a few more Red Wall seats but gaining back one or two in the South.

2030 Tories implement swingeing public spending cuts.

And so it continues....

OK a bit of a cynical and light-hearted outlook but I do sometimes wonder whether the country is stuck in a rut.

 

[Gloster]

Hopefully.

Just for a bit of light-hearted relief, here is a "fantasy future from hell" for the rest of the decade (not entirely serious but not completely implausible either...)

2022/23 Tory leader "deals" with the cost of living crisis by implementing tax cuts that the country cannot afford, rather than other solutions which might not follow Tory ideology quite so much.

2023 Tory leader keeps recent Tory converts on board by stirring up anger against the EU and migrants, and "dealing with" the "problems" by scrapping all remaining EU laws and extending the Rwanda scheme.

2023/24 Tory leader implements yet more unaffordable tax cuts to attempt to get votes

2024 Tories win a smaller majority, comparable with say 1992, holding on to most Red Wall seats but losing a few places like Winchester to the Lib Dems and losing a few North Wales seats to Labour.

2024-2026 Tories, safe in power for 5 years, implement swingeing spending cuts (the worst of any western nation), partly due to the cost of lockdown and the effects of Brexit but mostly to pay for the tax cuts in 2023/24.

2025-2026 Tories suffer catastrophic drop in support, but the electorate can do little as they're in power until 2029. New Labour leader, Jane Brown, from an unpretentious background and winner of a late 2022 red wall by-election, enjoys a surge in support. As a result, Tories give the PM the "Boris treatment". Leadership election occurs in the summer of 2026.

2026 The 2022 winner is replaced by new Tory leader, Oxford PPE graduate and former Bullingdon club member Charles Cavendish-Smith, winner of the late 2022 Tamworth byelection.
Cavendish-Smith promises to keep the same old populist nonsense going, laced with a healthy dose of good old-fashioned Thatcherism. It works for the Tory membership but the public are not impressed, as he is seen is elite and privileged compared to Jane Brown of Labour, from a more humble background.

2027 Change of leader doesn't cause Tory fortunes to recover. Brown remains popular. Right-wing press start to panic. The dirt is dug up on Brown who is accused (correctly, but it was a long time ago of course) of being a communist while at university in 1987. People start worrying about Brown. Cavendish-Smith gains.

2028 Cavendish-Smith implements tax cuts the country cannot afford.

2029 Tories win a majority once again, losing quite a few more Red Wall seats but gaining back one or two in the South.

2030 Tories implement swingeing public spending cuts.

And so it continues....

OK a bit of a cynical and light-hearted outlook but I do sometimes wonder whether the country is stuck in a rut.

You have missed the bit out where the Conservatives create a large number of new peers, who then vote through a bill allowing the Home Secretary to disenfranchise any voter he or she wishes. Alternatively, only an approved slate of candidates will be allowed to stand for parliament and parliamentary candidates’ names can be removed from the ballot paper after nominations have closed if the Home Secretary sees fit. So much simpler than your suggestions.

 

[MikeWM]

I'd be patient and wait for her to actually become PM and then see how she handles things, which will be tough enough for anyone dealing with the upcoming winter, but Truss' track record so far isn't promising.

Also I've no idea how anyone can meaningfully evaluate Starmer until he actually manages to come up with some policies. So far all he has managed to tell us are the things he won't do (most of which were things he promised he *would* do when standing for the party leadership...)

Truss, and Sunak for that matter, at least have put forward various policies, that we can debate, and agree or disagree with.

 

[brad465]

Also I've no idea how anyone can meaningfully evaluate Starmer until he actually manages to come up with some policies. So far all he has managed to tell us are the things he won't do (most of which were things he promised he *would* do when standing for the party leadership...)

Truss, and Sunak for that matter, at least have put forward various policies, that we can debate, and agree or disagree with.

We'll have to see what the party conference offers if anything. Labour have come up with some policies, but their means of communicating them need vast improvements. However, there's no point coming up with a full manifesto until an election is nigh, as circumstances can change in the 2 years or so before the next one is due.

 

[MikeWM]

We'll have to see what the party conference offers if anything. Labour have come up with some policies, but their means of communicating them need vast improvements. However, there's no point coming up with a full manifesto until an election is nigh, as circumstances can change in the 2 years or so before the next one is due.

Oh indeed, but some vague ideas would be of use.

All I know from the last year or so is they don't want to do most of what was in the 2017 or 2019 manifestos, they 'support' workers but aren't quite sure either way about strikes, they wanted quicker, harder and longer lockdowns, they're keen on making people wear masks, and they think the online 'safety' bill should go even further with state censorship than it already does.

None of that remotely appeals to me, I have to say. Perhaps their economic or social policies may be more appealing than the unfortunate list of things I've just mentioned, but so far I've no idea what they are.

 

[birchesgreen]

Oh indeed, but some vague ideas would be of use.

Maybe but the Tories have shown they are happy to nick any good ideas.

 

[Gloster]

Oh dear:

Tory leadership: I took money out of deprived urban areas, says Sunak

Allies of the former chancellor say he changed outdated rules to reflect need in rural areas.

www.bbc.co.uk

His chances look next to nil anyway but if the members want to elect someone who could win an election, this leak would on its own demonstrate why Sunak is unlikely to win, especially when it comes to holding onto red wall seats, which tend to be deprived urban areas.

Or might it even help him become PM. Although I have no idea how large it is, there is almost certainly a section of the Conservative party who would consider it a good idea. Either because they are selfish and want money spent on their area or because they are, well, selfish and don’t want to see money ‘wasted’ on deprived areas. I doubt that this group is large enough to tip the balance in his favour on its own, but every little helps. This won’t play well with the general public at a general election, but that is sometime in the future. (Cynical? Me?)

 

[nw1]

Or might it even help him become PM. Although I have no idea how large it is, there is almost a section of the Conservative party who would consider it a good idea. Either because they are selfish and want money spent on their area or because they are, well, selfish and don’t want to see money ‘wasted’ on deprived areas. I doubt that this group is large enough to tip the balance in his favour on its own, but every little helps. This won’t play well with the general public at a general election, but that is sometime in the future. (Cynical? Me?)

To be honest I hope Sunak wins. Partly because (despite the above) I do actually think he is less bad than Truss, but also it's more likely to lead to a Labour victory in 2024.

 

[TwoYellas]

So I guess you know her personally, do you?

(Because obviously you wouldn't just be dismissing someone as 'a nasty piece of work' purely because you disagree with their opinions, would you...?)

These right wing Tories should present how they're going to make a fairer society no matter your postcode/background etc. And leave the 'culture wars' obfuscation till last. As unlike what that neo-liberal nightmare Thatcher said, there very much is such a thing as society and it should flourish.

 

[Lost property]

So I guess you know her personally, do you?

(Because obviously you wouldn't just be dismissing someone as 'a nasty piece of work' purely because you disagree with their opinions, would you...?)

May I say you don't have to know somebody personally, and certainly those in the public arena, to accurately judge their character. Patel was a contributor to a certain now infamous publication then when serving with Treeza, decided on spot of freelancing as it were. Whilst she was booted out, it was only for a short time until her saviour Boris appeared ....remember all his cabinet were selected for one simple reason, their zealous ideological convictions...and off she went.

NO humanitarian instincts, allegedly bullied staff at all levels, broke the Ministerial code, more than happy to repress protests, likes to project her "hard uncompromising image" at each and every opportunity but, not unlike Baldric at times, her "cunning plans " don't often go to plan...came to spectacular grief with her inhumane and legally dubious plan to export human beings to Rwanda...probably expected a Queens Award to Industry for Exports knowing her.

 

[Busaholic]

To be honest I hope Sunak wins. Partly because (despite the above) I do actually think he is less bad than Truss, but also it's more likely to lead to a Labour victory in 2024.

I think you could well be right, but it seems unlikely to fall that way.

 

[Gloster]

It will be interesting to see how Truss, should she become PM, performs at the Despatch Box. She might rise to the occasion, but I suspect that she is too used to making bland statements and will find PMQs difficult. This is where Starmer’s more forensic style may serve him well and he will be able to harry her into making very public mistakes. She might try the Johnson method of diverting attention by making wild accusations, but he has had a lifetime’s experience of fine-tuning the practice. PMQs remains a very public display of ability and if she makes a mess of things, the public may move away from an obviously incompetent PM.

 

[The Ham]

Locally to me (remembering that I have a Tory MP) further spending cuts are not going to go down well, even if there's tax cuts.

Whilst it's likely that lots of people have private healthcare, so that's not going to be that big an issue if there's cuts to the NHS to then, there's still lots who work for the NHS and plenty more who already find out hard enough to get appointment. (Even though we've left the EU and so there's none of "them" taking "our" appointments*), there's plenty of other services which almost may as well not exist given how much has already been cut from them.

The problem is, is that services are needed by some and if they were to actually to be cut there's enough who know people who use such services that it'll cause upset within enough people.

10 years ago the perception was that spending cuts would remove a bit of waste in the system and result in limited changes in wealthy areas, so people supported them.

Now people have less access to library services, have to pay to get rid of stuff at their household waste centres, have seen services that they used only be available to the very poor, and even seen councils appear to put that children's lives at risk through the cutting of school bus services by appearing to be less sympathetic to road safety concerns.

* For the record that's not my thinking, as such a mindset is an over simplification, as most appointments are needed by those with health issues, who are more likely to be elderly, now even if a EU citizen came here in 1997 aged 40 they'd still only be 65, so whilst starting to get to the point where they may need a few more appointments still likely to be some way off actually needing lots. However chances are many EU citizens would a) be younger when they come here b) have come here after 1997. As such, whilst the increase in population would have some impact, the larger impact is likely to be from the aging native population. However, conversely, those working age people coming here are likely to fill the rules within the NHS and Care sectors which would likely offset the capacity that they use up.

 

[nw1]

Locally to me (remembering that I have a Tory MP) further spending cuts are not going to go down well, even if there's tax cuts.

Whilst it's likely that lots of people have private healthcare, so that's not going to be that big an issue if there's cuts to the NHS to then, there's still lots who work for the NHS and plenty more who already find out hard enough to get appointment.

While not the main point of your post: is it the case that "lots of people" have private healthcare? I'd say it was the exception rather than the rule, and private healthcare is expensive in the UK (compared to some EU countries for instance - this is based on personal experience), though not as bad as the USA.

I'd hope they do not go down the "let's not fix the NHS because we can all afford private healthcare in the UK" line, though knowing the current Conservative Party, nothing would surprise me.

(Even though we've left the EU and so there's none of "them" taking "our" appointments*), there's plenty of other services which almost may as well not exist given how much has already been cut from them.

The problem is, is that services are needed by some and if they were to actually to be cut there's enough who know people who use such services that it'll cause upset within enough people.

I'd hope so yes. Lots of people do use public services, so people should appreciate them.

The issue to me is: when will people realise that the base Conservative philosophy is (to my mind) one of low-tax, and low-public-spending? Will people make the link between poor public services and base Conservative philosophy? Will people realise that the B-word is not the solution to their problems?

Perhaps not yet, but perhaps they will when the cuts bite. At the moment the Tories can blame our ills (partly accurately) on the costs of lockdown and the Ukraine situation. The question to me is: will people vent their anger at the Tories as the incumbents, in time for the 2024 election? Looking more optimistically (from a non-Tory POV) Truss, who comes across to me as bland, robotic and unappealing on all levels, is less likely to woo people than cuddly Boris so there is some hope yet.

 

[Falcon1200]

don’t want to see money ‘wasted’ on deprived areas.

That is the third time I have seen Sunak's (possibly ill-phrased) words misquoted, the previous times were by his leadership rival and by a Labour opponent ! He actually said 'deprived urban areas'. What he seemed to mean was that rural areas and small towns can suffer deprivation just as much as big cities and should not be ignored.

 

[Gloster]

That is the third time I have seen Sunak's (possibly ill-phrased) words misquoted, the previous times were by his leadership rival and by a Labour opponent ! He actually said 'deprived urban areas'. What he seemed to mean was that rural areas and small towns can suffer deprivation just as much as big cities and should not be ignored.

This was not (mis)quoting Sunak’s words. It was a more general comment on the usual opinions of the specific group of Conservative members towards ‘levelling up’.

 

[Falcon1200]

This was not (mis)quoting Sunak’s words. It was a more general comment on the usual opinions of the specific group of Conservative members towards ‘levelling up’.

Fair enough, but the word urban (deliberately ?) missed out by the other politicians does alter the meaning of Sunak's words somewhat !

 

[TwoYellas]

Noticed the outgoing PM doesn't seem to be doing a fat lot as his tenure comes to a close. I get the feeling he's not particularly bothered, oh well, at least he 'got Brexit done!'

 

[birchesgreen]

According to Sunak, the way to combat inflation is to crack down on benefits.

Must be all those MASSIVE plasma TVs the scum on the dole buy, sure i read that in the Daily Hate once

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Noticed the outgoing PM doesn't seem to be doing a fat lot as his tenure comes to a close. I get the feeling he's not particularly bothered, oh well, at least he 'got Brexit done!'

There's not a lot he can do now. Convention dictates that since he now has the effective status of a caretaker prime minister, he shouldn't make any decisions that might bind his successor to any new policies. All he's really allowed to do is keep the Government ticking over.

 

[nlogax]

All he's really allowed to do is keep the Government ticking over.

Evidently he can't even be bothered to do that.