Reform UK discussion

[cb a1]

Also note that quite a lot of 16-21 year olds are in full time education (especially given that up to 18 year old need to be in education - the 16 year old banding is historic from when that was the school leaving age).

As we're talking UK population, I believe that the school leaving age in Scotland is still 16 (at least it was 5 years ago when my son left education).

 

[takno]

As we're talking UK population, I believe that the school leaving age in Scotland is still 16 (at least it was 5 years ago when my son left education).

I don't think you have to stay in school past 16 in England or Scotland. There's just no support for you if you leave school at 16 and don't go into a job, and the overwhelming majority of kids stay on to 18 in some form.

 

[JamesT]

I don't think you have to stay in school past 16 in England or Scotland. There's just no support for you if you leave school at 16 and don't go into a job, and the overwhelming majority of kids stay on to 18 in some form.

The Education and Skills Act 2008 places an obligation on someone to be in education or training until the age of 18. It applies only to England.

 

[The Ham]

As we're talking UK population, I believe that the school leaving age in Scotland is still 16 (at least it was 5 years ago when my son left education).

Fair enough, it's not something I was aware of.

However I would guess that there's still a significant number in reduction or training in Scotland even though there's not the requirement to do so.

 

[weeklycommuter]

The impact of this is sometimes overestimated. The impact on the public finances through state pension payments is reduced, but the impact on workforce participation is only partial. People in low wage low productivity work may feel financially compelled to work for another year, but, for people in high wage high productivity work, it only has a marginal impact on when they choose to stop working. Many people in high wage high productivity work are already stopping work before they get to state pension age.

Working from home encourages people to continue to work and pay taxes for longer especially in high wage high productivity work.

 

[takno]

The Education and Skills Act 2008 places an obligation on someone to be in education or training until the age of 18. It applies only to England.

Ahh okay. I knew it was more or less universal but I had apparently forgotten it was compulsory, in spite of talking to English teachers on an almost daily basis.

The Scottish schools system by contrast seems to spit kids out into university before they're ready to be adults, and waste money on 4 year degrees to finish their secondary education. There also seems to be a chunk of bored kids in their late teens who don't do anything and survive off their parents and Saturday jobs, which can't be healthy and certainly isn't increasing the productivity.

 

[cb a1]

The Scottish schools system by contrast seems to spit kids out into university before they're ready to be adults, and waste money on 4 year degrees to finish their secondary education. There also seems to be a chunk of bored kids in their late teens who don't do anything and survive off their parents and Saturday jobs, which can't be healthy and certainly isn't increasing the productivity.

I don't pay much attention to what is happening with 16 to 18 year olds, but I believe kids in Scotland still normally go to University at the same age as kids in England.
Unless things have changed substantively from when my peers went to university (I appreciate that was over 30 years ago), the Scottish highers and degrees specialise later than the English system (which I did) so they get more breadth of knowledge with that extra year.
Which is better? Difficult to say - confirmation bias means that anyone successful from either system can lead to an assumption that the system they went through is best.
As an employer, the graduates I manage and mentor come from across the globe covering a myriad of education systems and I couldn't say if one system is better than an other.

 

[Magdalia]

Working from home encourages people to continue to work and pay taxes for longer especially in high wage high productivity work.

Working from home is a separate issue from raising the state pension age.

 

[SteveP29]

The impact of this is sometimes overestimated. The impact on the public finances through state pension payments is reduced, but the impact on workforce participation is only partial. People in low wage low productivity work may feel financially compelled to work for another year, but, for people in high wage high productivity work, it only has a marginal impact on when they choose to stop working. Many people in high wage high productivity work are already stopping work before they get to state pension age.

There's also the fact that people working longer is not creating the 'natural wastage' where people retire allowing graduates and school leavers to enter the workforce.

People will be entering the workforce later and later, meaning they have to work longer and longer to afford their first mortgages AND work long enough to qualify for the state pension, although I think the state pension will be gone by the time my step children reach pension age

 

[102 fan]

Instead of doubting the intelligence of Reform, and their voters, perhaps it would be better to ask why the two established parties fared so badly?

Until they find out why they did so badly, and convince the electorate that they have changed, Reform will win.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Instead of doubting the intelligence of Reform, and their voters, perhaps it would be better to ask why the two established parties fared so badly?
Until they find out why they did so badly, and convince the electorate that they have changed, Reform will win.

The Labour Government has had to make some unpopular spending cuts immediately after winning the general election and many people are currently voting against the Labour Government as a result. Reform is picking up votes in some areas but in other areas the votes are switching to the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. To change this by the next general election fours years from now the Labour Government clearly has to grow the economy, improve public finances and fix other causes of people being unhappy including easing the shortage of housing, reducing housing costs, reducing energy costs, reducing crime and reducing immigration. The Labour Party is in Government for the next four years until the next general election and so has the opportunity to do this.

The more interesting question is what the Conservative Party does. When the Labour Party was previously in Government and unpopular such as in the mid 1970s voters switched to the Conservatives who then as now were the main opposition party. The difference this time is that while many voters have switched away from the Labour Party they have switched to the Reform Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, not the Conservative Party.

 

[AlterEgo]

Instead of doubting the intelligence of Reform, and their voters, perhaps it would be better to ask why the two established parties fared so badly?

Until they find out why they did so badly, and convince the electorate that they have changed, Reform will win.

Only because Reform are appealing to the lowest common denominator with low-information voters. They aren't the only alternative party out there.

The real answer to why we are seeing a rise in the hard right is because standards of living are declining - most people are working longer, for less, with a lower stake in capitalism, having seen prosperous times evaporate with the previous generation. Labour have had to cut the nation's cloth to suit and this has contributed to a sense that they must be dealt a bloody nose.

Declining standards of living naturally lead people in all democracies to seek an alternative. In Britain particularly, scapegoating is an effective tactic, because the culture here is one of zero-sum "if someone is getting rich it means someone else is getting poorer" "if a minority earns this right, another group must have lost one" and so on. It's the country of the moat and drawbridge, and the crab bucket.

The main parties are struggling which minority is the one most to blame for why Your Life Sucks (Not YOUR Fault, Median Adult): asylum seekers, immigrants, the disabled, trans people, and Muslims are taking turns at being the Nominated Scapegoat.

 

[SuspectUsual]

But it’ll be fine under Reform, because they’re banning flags other than the Union Flag and cross of St George

Lowest common denominator populist nonsense, but unfortunately it wins votes at the moment

 

[takno]

But it’ll be fine under Reform, because they’re banning flags other than the Union Flag and cross of St George

Lowest common denominator populist nonsense, but unfortunately it wins votes at the moment

That will deal with all the wicked people flying saltires and flags with dragons on them.

 

[Harpo]

Popcorn time:

A newly elected councillor has resigned her Reform UK membership after she was suspended over a social media post.

Donna Edmunds, who represents Hodnet in Shropshire, was suspended last week after she posted on X about her plans to defect from the party.

Shropshire councillor resigns from Reform UK after suspension

Donna Edmunds was suspended from the party over a post on X declaring she had planned to defect.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[sor]

But it’ll be fine under Reform, because they’re banning flags other than the Union Flag and cross of St George

Lowest common denominator populist nonsense, but unfortunately it wins votes at the moment

I know they've since backtracked and included county flags (a sign that they perhaps spent all of 30 seconds writing their "policies"), but I'd have dearly loved to see Cornwall's new Reform contingent attempt to explain why the St Piran's flag should be banned, or that the English flag should fly in its place!

 

[takno]

I know they've since backtracked and included county flags (a sign that they perhaps spent all of 30 seconds writing their "policies"), but I'd have dearly loved to see Cornwall's new Reform contingent attempt to explain why the St Piran's flag should be banned, or that the English flag should fly in its place!

They might as well just say they want to ban pride flags. Not much use in a dog whistle if everybody can hear it anyway.

 

[SwindonBert]

Popcorn time:

Shropshire councillor resigns from Reform UK after suspension

Donna Edmunds was suspended from the party over a post on X declaring she had planned to defect.

www.bbc.co.uk

It takes something to be suspended as a councillor for the party you're elected for before you formally take up being a councillor (that's tomorrow)

 

[weeklycommuter]

It takes something to be suspended as a councillor for the party you're elected for before you formally take up being a councillor (that's tomorrow)

She will still be a councillor as all councillors are elected as individuals and they can change which party they support or become independents. They are not required to continue with the party which nominated them as a candidate. All the councillors elected as Reform Party candidates on 1 May could leave the Reform Party and join another party or become independent and serve their full term with their new status and there is nothing that the Reform Party can do about it.

 

[philosopher]

The Labour Government has had to make some unpopular spending cuts immediately after winning the general election and many people are currently voting against the Labour Government as a result. Reform is picking up votes in some areas but in other areas the votes are switching to the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. To change this by the next general election fours years from now the Labour Government clearly has to grow the economy, improve public finances and fix other causes of people being unhappy including easing the shortage of housing, reducing housing costs, reducing energy costs, reducing crime and reducing immigration. The Labour Party is in Government for the next four years until the next general election and so has the opportunity to do this.

The more interesting question is what the Conservative Party does. When the Labour Party was previously in Government and unpopular such as in the mid 1970s voters switched to the Conservatives who then as now were the main opposition party. The difference this time is that while many voters have switched away from the Labour Party they have switched to the Reform Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, not the Conservative Party.

I think there are many voters who absolutely despise Reform and will vote for almost any party except Reform. During the local elections these voters may have voted for the party they most liked, whether that was the Liberal Democrats, Greens, etc. Come the general election I would expect these voters to vote tactically for the party that is most likely prevent Reform winning theif seat, which for most seats would be Labour or the Conservatives.

 

[weeklycommuter]

I think there are many voters who absolutely despise Reform and will vote for almost any party except Reform. During the local elections these voters may have voted for the party they most liked, whether that was the Liberal Democrats, Greens, etc. Come the general election I would expect these voters to vote tactically for the party that is most likely prevent Reform winning theif seat, which for most seats would be Labour or the Conservatives.

I agree. The Labour Party won the 2024 General Election because voters who were not Labour supporters felt they could live with a Labour Government with Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister so they did not vote to block this from happening. The problem the Reform Party will have is many voters will vote to block the Reform Party from winning because they above all will want to stop the Reform Party from winning the election and forming the Government.

 

[yorkie]

I think there are many voters who absolutely despise Reform and will vote for almost any party except Reform. During the local elections these voters may have voted for the party they most liked, whether that was the Liberal Democrats, Greens, etc. Come the general election I would expect these voters to vote tactically for the party that is most likely prevent Reform winning theif seat, which for most seats would be Labour or the Conservatives.

Absolutely. Keeping the far-right out would be a priority for me, and many others, I'm sure.

 

[ChrisC]

I think there are many voters who absolutely despise Reform and will vote for almost any party except Reform. During the local elections these voters may have voted for the party they most liked, whether that was the Liberal Democrats, Greens, etc. Come the general election I would expect these voters to vote tactically for the party that is most likely prevent Reform winning theif seat, which for most seats would be Labour or the Conservatives.

I voted Conservative last week. My local council ward has always been won by the Conservatives with a large majority. This time a well respected local farmer was standing as the Reform candidate and could have possibly won. Labour never do very well and the Lib Dems even worse, so the Conservative candidate needed all the votes he could get to keep out Reform. My vote really did count this time as the Conservative beat Refiorm by just one vote! Actually the Conservative councillor has been a good councillor, he is local and is on the parish council of one of the villages in the area. Unfortunately it hasn’t stopped Reform getting a large majority to run Nottinghamshire County Council.

 

[Magdalia]

I voted Conservative last week.

My vote really did count this time as the Conservative beat Refiorm by just one vote!

Democracy in action. You can spend the rest of your life telling that story to people who say they can't be bothered to vote.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The problem the Reform Party will have is many voters will vote to block the Reform Party from winning because they above all will want to stop the Reform Party from winning the election and forming the Government.

Indeed, this is also what happens quite regularly in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. In Scotland, a good example is in Aberdeenshire West, where the SNP lost in 2021 through Lib Dem voters switching 3:1 to the Tories to keep the SNP out. In Northern Ireland, we've also seen plenty of examples of middle class unionist voters voting for the DUP in areas where you wouldn't expect it, and also plenty of moderate Sinn Fein and SDLP voters going over to Alliance where it's clear that the unionist parties can be beaten.

The problem is that this tactic doesn't always work because it relies on local alliances, and relations between parties can be quite sour. The SNP has done a pretty good job of getting on with everyone (see the latest budget, which was passed with the support of everyone except the Tories), but for instance, the Unionist parties often struggle to collaborate in the elections where they would be better off having a single Unionist candidate rather than splitting the vote. They managed it in Na h-Eileanan an Iar last year by simply not bothering to run a campaign against the Labour candidate, but there was little hope of anyone but the Labour candidate in that seat anyway.

 

[Magdalia]

The problem is that this tactic doesn't always work because it relies on local alliances

In a General Election there is no longer any need to rely on local alliances.

In July 2024 there were at least a dozen polling companies publishing granular voting intentions data on a seat by seat basis. It was this that informed individual voters on how to vote tactically, and it also informed parties on where to concentrate their campaign resources.

Last week that information was almost entirely absent. For example, here in the Fens I didn't find any polls of voter intentions for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election. The only information available was previous elections.

I expect seat by seat voter intentions data to play an even more significant part in the next General Election.