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Russia invades Ukraine

brad465

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This Wikipedia edit is gold:


Who did this?

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(Image of Su-34 Wikipedia page with the Conservation status box added to it and a "Critically endangered" label added)
 
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35B

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According to some random bloke on YouTube the radar can be separate from the launcher, which apparently (not sure how) makes it more difficult for Russian pilots to determine that the missile is aimed at them. This probably doesn't mean they can leave the radar in Kyiv.

With the caveat that I'm certainly not an expert here, I believe the static nature of the Western Front was because defensive measures and weapons (such as trenches and machine guns) could mostly nullify the offensive ones available at the time. This changed somewhat with the advent of the tank, but I believe what was more important was America entering the war. This triggered the Germans to launch an offensive trying to strike a decisive blow before the extra resources arrived on the Allied side, which they could not follow through. Meanwhile in the east, Russia suffered a resolution and accepted German terms to end the conflict.

There are some parallels with Ukraine. Defensive measures also have the upper hand, partly because of drones and other technological advances and partly because neither side has enough of the right equipment that the USA (for example) would bring to the same sort of conflict. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will receive such equipment in sufficient quantity to be decisive, but unlikely that Russia will find a game-changing capability that they haven't tried already (the only such being nuclear, and I can't see even Putin doing that). Meanwhile there is some risk that Russia will collapse but a greater one that the West will continue to provide less support than needed.

I believe the attrition will continue until at least November, when if Biden is re-elected and Western resolve continues Russia may start looking for a way out. If we end up with Trump then Ukraine might be wise to cut its losses and look for a settlement that freezes the front lines - conceding any extra territory creates a Czechoslovakia 1938 situation where the new frontier is not defended and the invader can just grab more. Either way, an enlarged and combat-tested Russian army has the potential to cause trouble elsewhere.
Just briefly on the policy of attrition, I agree with your interpretation of how the stalemate was broken and the role of new forces.

My observation is more about the choice, faced with stalemate, to continue repeatedly to mount massed offences against the evidence that they didn't work at anything like acceptable cost. What is interesting is how the Germans managed to start a successful offensive in 1918, making significant progress before their resources ran out and they couldn't sustain the front line any longer.
 

edwin_m

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My observation is more about the choice, faced with stalemate, to continue repeatedly to mount massed offences against the evidence that they didn't work at anything like acceptable cost. What is interesting is how the Germans managed to start a successful offensive in 1918, making significant progress before their resources ran out and they couldn't sustain the front line any longer.
Indeed. I believe it was mostly the Allies that mounted mass offensives in WW1, but I don't know why Germany succeeded initially in 1918 when none of the previous attempts had made much difference beyond causing mass casualties. The Ukrainians have attempted it once or twice but the Russians much more often.
 

brad465

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Indeed. I believe it was mostly the Allies that mounted mass offensives in WW1, but I don't know why Germany succeeded initially in 1918 when none of the previous attempts had made much difference beyond causing mass casualties. The Ukrainians have attempted it once or twice but the Russians much more often.
That 1918 offensive was known as the Ludendorff offensive, where the Germans saw the US were about to enter the war, so their last hope was throw everything they had (including some divisions freed up by Russia leaving the war) at once to try and get a big victory before the US turned the tide.
 

ainsworth74

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My observation is more about the choice, faced with stalemate, to continue repeatedly to mount massed offences against the evidence that they didn't work at anything like acceptable cost. What is interesting is how the Germans managed to start a successful offensive in 1918, making significant progress before their resources ran out and they couldn't sustain the front line any longer.

Indeed. I believe it was mostly the Allies that mounted mass offensives in WW1, but I don't know why Germany succeeded initially in 1918 when none of the previous attempts had made much difference beyond causing mass casualties.

Though of course one of the reasons the offensives, on both sides, were effective at restoring real movement to the frontline in 1918 was four years of learning that had been accrued by that point in the war. A lot of lessons and new technology all coming together in the same place at the same time was a very important factor in overcoming the primacy of the defence that had been so difficult to counter up until that point.

As for the German successes in early 1918 that's in large part due to not only adapting their tactics on assaulting trenches but perhaps most importantly the arrival of large numbers of troops from the Eastern front following the armistice with Russia in December 1917 which released somewhere in the region of one million soldiers for service on the Western front. This gave them more troops to commit to offensive actions again but also allowed the rotation of troops off the frontline to retrain with new tactics for to then use in the offensive itself (which was absolutely a last throw of the dice for Germany).

On the part of the Allies and their continued attempted offensives in the West during the war I would note firstly that the Allies in some respects didn't have the choice. The Germans had, after all, swept through most of Belgium and large tracts of northern France. I'm not entirely convinced it would have been a sustainable position to simply sit back on their heels and wait for something to happen for an unknown period of time. We know that the Americans will join the war in 1917 with large number of troops arriving in 1918 whilst the German domestic position will become intolerable by mid/late 1918. I'm not sure that in 1915 or 1916 it was at all obvious that either of those situation would pertain nor in 1917 that the German home front would collapse twelve months later. Especially for the French whose territory was occupied I'm not sure just sitting on their hands would really have been a practical strategy.

Equally it's perhaps unfair to accuse only the Allies of repeated massed offensives as that rather ignores the biggest battle of attrition of them all which was specifically designed and intended to cause massive casualties that being the Battle of Verdun which was planned by the Germans to "bleed France white". It perhaps doesn't get the play that it should in the UK because it involved only the French and Germans but at somewhere north of 700,000 casualties (killed, wounded and missing) in nine months of fighting in 1916* it was an incredibly costly battle entirely designed to inflict casualties by hitting the French somewhere that they would have no choice but to defend and defend hard. Indeed the Battle of the Somme in 1916 started when it did precisely to try and relieve pressure on the French by drawing off German troops into another sector of the frontline. Something which, despite the utterly horrific opening day losses suffered by the British Army, it did very effectively. Whilst one could argue that Passchendaele was launched and continued longer than it should have in 1917 in part to help cover for the French Army becoming almost combat ineffective for a decent chunk of 1917 due to widespread mutinies within the Army during the first half the year and then the rebuilding that was required during the rest of 1917. The British Army had to do something to engage the Germans and prevent them going on the offensive against a shattered French Army during that time.

Were the offensives of the early and middle parts of the war too costly and, often times, poorly managed? For sure. But equally they weren't just blundering around Blackadder style with Haig using a dustpan and brush to sweep up troops and Melchett observing a 1:1 scale chunk of soil that had been recaptured at great cost.

But in any event it is unarguable that by 1918 the Allies had learned how to fight and win battles on the Western front to the point that they defeated the German Army in the field in 1918 and would have advanced on to Germany proper in 1919 had the war not come to an end in November 1918. That isn't a war that was just a stalemate...

Certainly the Allies and their leadership are not blameless for the losses suffered. There is some utterly unforgivable mismanagement (day one of the Somme is probably the best example of this on the British side) of the combat on the Western Front but again, I would strongly suggest it is extremely simplistic to the point of being inaccurate to simply reduce that war to "it was unmitigated slaughter caused by inept Generalship and nobody achieved anything of note until one day they stopped fighting because everyone had had enough" or similar.

*I can recommend The Price of Glory by Alistair Horne for a fairly short but gripping history of the battle if anyone would like to learn more.
 
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Killingworth

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The end of WW1 was hastened by our successful naval blockade leading to starvation in Germany. That wasn't lifted until March 1919.

During 1918 desertions from the German army increased and there were civilian strikes reducing production of many supplies. On 3rd November 1918 sailors in the Imperial German Navy at Kiel mutinied. The German Revolution of 1918-19 is little known in this country.

(A turn around from earlier in the war when the German U boat campaign was close to starving us leading to the rapid growth of the allotment movement.)

The collapse of the Russian eastern front had given temporary help to German forces but it was similar revolutionary action that did for the Kaiser as did for the Czar. Lack of food was ultimately as much responsible as deaths at the front.

The current conflict will probably be decided indirectly off the battlefield itself.
 
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edwin_m

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Trying to tie this WW1 stuff back to Ukraine, the comments above suggest some similarities and differences.

According to Wikipedia many sectors of the Western Front had implemented defence in depth, with most of the troops held back out of artillery range. Russia has done something similar, though obviously complicated by longer range weaponry. It also notes that the Germans used their best troops to spearhead the advance, and lost many of them. Ukraine tried that less successfully in the counteroffensive and Russia may have done at Avdiivka, but generally Russia does the opposite and sends the disposables forward so they can locate Ukrainian positions for better-trained troops to target.
 

43096

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The Telegraph’s Matt cartoon for the Russian election today rather sums up the situation.
1710491605260.png
(Cartoon of Russian Election result as a pie chart with “Voted for Putin”, “Voted for Putin twice” and “Fell out of window” as the three categories)
 

DustyBin

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The Telegraph’s Matt cartoon for the Russian election today rather sums up the situation.
View attachment 154259
(Cartoon of Russian Election result as a pie chart with “Voted for Putin”, “Voted for Putin twice” and “Fell out of window” as the three categories)

That’s about right.

(Although he missed out the “too busy liberating Belgorod to vote” segment!).
 

Mogster

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Russia is able to form a large number of infantry units, and those units are going into combat. They’re doing assaults, they’re not just turning away. One of the big questions I had … was, “How are they doing this? How are they motivating units to go into assaults?” Obviously many of them fail completely, and they take heavy losses, but one notable thing that we were told on this trip is that the Russian military is increasingly using execution as a means of maintain morale and discipline … the threat of execution and also execution itself. It is well known that Wagner was using executing prisoners last year as a key way of forcing prisoners to conduct assaults, it looks like the Russian military is doing that too. And this wasn’t just from one source, we were told this from different brigade commanders on several parts of the front, it was a pretty consistent theme. … What we were told was, at least in some cases, was that squad leaders were empowered to conduct executions.

Motivating the troops, Russian style… I can’t imagine how a leader who had lived and trained with a group of guys would then choose to execute some to motivate the others. Iirc the British Army hasn’t executed any of its own men since WW1. How is this acceptable to the Russian people in 2024? Having their teenage sons sent off to war knowing that they could be executed by their own side if they are too scared to fight or develop PTSD.

I find thinking about our troops facing this sort of army in a possible future war disturbing tbh.
 

dgl

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Of course these motivations won't exactly bring out the best in their men, they'll just do the bare minimum, at the end of the day if your potentially going to die whatever where's the motivation to put any effort in.
 

DustyBin

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How is this acceptable to the Russian people in 2024? Having their teenage sons sent off to war knowing that they could be executed by their own side if they are too scared to fight or develop PTSD.

I suspect that most Russians who matter are either simply unaware of what’s really happening, or don’t care as it’s a poor sod from Dagestan getting blown up (or executed by their own side).
 

YorkRailFan

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But when election officials said results gave him more than 87% of the vote, he said Russia's democracy was more transparent than many in the West.
In truth no credible opposition candidate was allowed to stand.
Supporters of dead Putin critic Alexei Navalny did stage symbolic protests.
Their "Noon against Putin" initiative meant that long queues of voters formed at midday in Russian cities including Moscow and St Petersburg and in even greater numbers outside many embassies abroad, but it was never going to have any impact on the result.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Putin won with a landslide.

Germany called it a "pseudo-election" under an authoritarian ruler reliant on censorship, repression and violence.
I agree with that, seems like a fair comment.

UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron condemned "the illegal holding of elections on Ukrainian territory".
Still can't believe he's Lord Cameron, it sounds so ridiculous.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said "the Russian dictator is simulating another election".
He sort of his to be fair.

In the words of Navalny ally Leonid Volkov, savagely beaten with a meat hammer in exile in Lithuania last week: "The percentages drawn for Putin have, of course, not the slightest relation to reality."
I wonder how many meetings they have to decide what percentage to use.

One election commission official was reported killed in the occupied town of Berdyansk on Sunday and residents spoke of pro-Russian collaborators going from home to home with ballot boxes accompanied by armed soldiers.
Not a good look for Russia, although at this point, this is a minor thing compared to other things Russia has been/is doing.

But on Russia's carefully controlled state TV channels the result was hailed as a triumph.
"This is an incredible level of support and unity around the figure of Vladimir Putin," said one correspondent excitedly, "and a signal to Western countries".
President Putin was more subdued as he took questions from reporters, but he did hail Russia's presidential campaign as far more advanced than the US, citing Russia's use of online voting, which officials said brought in eight million voters.
Mr Putin had earlier been filmed performing a single keystroke to exercise his democratic right.
"It's transparent and absolutely objective," he suggested, "not like in the US with mail-in voting... you can buy a vote for $10".
Of course Russian State TV hailed it, they don't have the choice to do anything else.
He is now set to stay in power until at least 2030, and has ruled Russia since 2000 - the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
Unless he dies unexpectedly.
Independent watchdog Golos was barred from observing the vote but reports of irregularities have emerged, as well as pressure on public sector employees to vote either in polling stations or online.
That doesn't come as a surprise.
President Putin praised opposition campaigners for encouraging voters to turn out in greater numbers, although he condemned those who spoilt their ballots and said action would be taken against them.
For the first time he referred to Alexei Navalny by name, a month after his most vocal critic died in a penal colony inside the Arctic Circle.
In a remark possibly aimed at rebutting widespread allegations that he had Navalny killed, Mr Putin confirmed reports that he had explored exchanging him for prisoners held in the West, but on the condition that his rival never returned.
"I said I'm for it but, unfortunately, what happened happened. What can you do? That's life."
Yulia Navalnaya described queuing for six hours outside the Russian embassy in Berlin as part of the protest vote campaign. She said she had written her late husband's name on her ballot paper, and praised everyone who turned up, for giving her "hope that everything is not in vain".
A very difficult time for Yulia Navalnaya
One protest voter in London said she had queued for more than seven hours before casting her ballot.
Activist and lawyer Lyubov Sobol said in Washington DC that the protest votes would not be reflected in the Kremlin's results, "but this solidarity, this symbol, is nonetheless important".
Russia's presidential election was never going to be a level playing field. The Kremlin tightly controls the political system, the media and elections.
Communist Party candidate Nikolai Kharitonov managed little more than 4% of the vote and his fellow candidates even less.
None of the three were serious candidates and Mr Kharitonov even praised the president ahead of the election for "trying to consolidate the nation for victory in all areas".
Millions of Russians will have voted for a fifth Putin presidential term partly because they see no credible alternative.
But that is purely because the Kremlin has removed any possible challenger from the political landscape. Opponents have either been jailed, or they have fled into exile, or they have lost their lives.
For a few short weeks there was a suggestion that an anti-war politician called Boris Nadezhdin might be allowed to stand. But last month he was ruled out by the election commission as increasing numbers of Russians warmed to his message and queued to register their support.
Tis a dark day for Russia in many ways.
 

brad465

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2 days ago there was of course the terror attack in Moscow claimed by ISIS. While it in itself has nothing to do with the Ukraine conflict, Putin has resorted to doing whatever he can to blame it on Ukraine, and he dismissed US intelligence that correctly predicted the attack. I think this highlights how weak he is, and he may even have opened a Pandora's box that leads to his downfall at some point in future.

What he's essentially said, is ISIS and other like-minded terror groups can carry out attacks on Russian soil, and Putin will not only ignore intelligence identifying the threats, he'll try and cover up the true nature once they happen. This could allow further attacks which in turn undermine his authority/strongman image and endanger his premiership.
 

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2 more Russian warships damaged off Crimea it seeems.


Ukraine says it has hit two landing ships, a communications centre and other infrastructure used by Russia's Black Sea fleet off annexed Crimea.
An announcement by the Ukrainian general staff said the Yamal and Azov ships had been destroyed.
The Russian-installed governor of the port of Sevastopol said 10 Ukrainian missiles had been shot down.
Russia also launched a missile and drone attack on the capital, Kyiv, and the region of Lviv early on Sunday.
In an announcement, Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-appointed mayor of Sevastopol, said damage had been caused to residential buildings and transport infrastructure as a result of the "massive" attack.
 

brad465

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Looks like Ukraine is finally getting the much needed US aid:


The House of Representatives has voted in favour of billions of dollars in US military aid for Ukraine, after months of delay.
The measure had vocal opponents in Congress, and it took a fragile bipartisan deal to finally get it through the House.
There were cheers and applause in the House as it passed, with some Representatives waving Ukrainian flags.
The $61bn (£49bn) package passed by 311 votes to 112.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to push the measures through, even if it jeopardised his position.
Reacting to Saturday's vote, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: "I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.
"Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to protect it.
"The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.
The bill will now go to the Senate, which is expected to pass it in the next few days before President Joe Biden signs it into law.
In a statement released after Saturday's vote, Mr Biden urged the Senate to approve it quickly "so that I can sign it into law and we can quickly send weapons and equipment to Ukraine to meet their urgent battlefield needs".
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described America's military aid to Ukraine as a "direct support for terrorist activities".
 

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najaB

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Meanwhile Ukraine has shot down a TU-22M, something they’d never managed previously.
That's massive! Both because that's a major strategic asset that will cost hundreds of millions(?) to replace, but also because it reinforces the fact that Russian aircraft aren't 100% safe when operating well inside Russian airspace.
 

DustyBin

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That's massive! Both because that's a major strategic asset that will cost hundreds of millions(?) to replace, but also because it reinforces the fact that Russian aircraft aren't 100% safe when operating well inside Russian airspace.

I agree, in fact it’s probably irreplaceable at this point.
 

najaB

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Yep, production of the type ended in 1993.
Though, I understand that there are mothballed examples in the Russian equivalent of Davis-Monthan and they have an ongoing program to modernise the current fleet.

They already restored one to flight, so it's possible there are still some others that could be made flyable.
 

DustyBin

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Evidence? I read it would be several weeks before the Congress vote led to any extra equipment getting to the front line.

Putting two and two together (and possibly making five!), the cargo and military flights into Poland from the US and elsewhere have continued over the last few months, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a load of kit sat ready to go. It will still need transporting to the front line obviously, but I would have thought it could be there within days as opposed to weeks.
 

edwin_m

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Apparently some supplies are already staged in Poland.
Putting two and two together (and possibly making five!), the cargo and military flights into Poland from the US and elsewhere have continued over the last few months, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a load of kit sat ready to go. It will still need transporting to the front line obviously, but I would have thought it could be there within days as opposed to weeks.
If so that's good news. It would make sense for the US to do that, but I was concerned that they would be unable to ship anything anywhere without agreement from Congress.
 

najaB

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Fortunately Congress has no say in where the DoD decides to store their equipment, only in if they can give it to another country.
 

AM9

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Fortunately Congress has no say in where the DoD decides to store their equipment, ....
Yes, that would render them liable for military logistics decisions, - and blame if their interference causes any unintended consequences. Presumably the equipment is categorised as deployed in a NATO location in Poland.
 

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I've just watched 'Ukraine - enemy in the woods' tonight, had it recorded but forgot about it, it may be distressing to some people, but BBC2 didn't hold back. Basically, they were protecting a railway line from Russians and there are woods on either sides. It's all footage of what happened in HD,. As I say it's just a warning, dead bodies, swearing on subtitles etc... It was a real eye-opener to me to see how the Ukrainians are fighting so hard. Shows how drones are so important too. It's still on BBC iPlayer.
 

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