The start of seismic change?

[hooverboy]

China will use its ability to supply vast amounts of PPE and medical support to leverage political compliance and looking the other way whilst it strongarms its neighbours etc.
We really need to scale PPE production, ventilators, field hospitals so we can have spare capacity at home and protect our friends

yes to both.
China is here to stay as one of the global power brokers,whether we like it or not.The best solution would be a more "mellow" chinese regime that obides by the rules and is open and transparent with the rest of the world in their doings and dealings, but ultimately that is up to the chinese people to sort out.
The new silk road initiaitve is not actually a bad thing,done correctly it could be a massive benefit to world welfare.It's just the present people doing it have got a few aces up their sleeves that the rest of the folks at the poker table sort of know about,but aren't quite yet willing to call them out as cheats(aham..rare earth minerals and declared gold reserves!)

in the case of the latter we really do need to get all supply chains in order,not just healthcare.
The next shoe to drop could well be oil/energy.if you remember back to 2008 the oil price dipped to about $20 a barrel, three years later it shot up to $150.
the central banks (again) have thrown money at the problem,so while we have short term deflation due to covid,once things go back online we'll get inflation in spades.

I am still of the belief that this present glut due to the trade situation is very temporary,and a supply shock is still a significant risk.
while the eco-mob have been trying to cull our energy demands,the real fly in the ointment is still OPEC/middle eastern supply.

Anti fracking etc,while well intentioned has reduced potential indigenous supply,which from a security point of view needs to be taken just as seriously as food and medical supplies.
I do hope government are looking at this too, although the answers they come up with will not please our environmentalists.
The whole lot taken together means increased onshore manufacturing,processing etc which will increase our need for energy,until we come up with some new solutions.
Not to say we can't do it,but we need a much more cost effective approach then building a thousand windmills in the middle of the north sea.

If the government wanted a huge willy-waving project,then I would suggest building a bloody great hydro-electric barrage along the east coast.It will give us power AND protect that stretch of coastline from erosion,which is a huge problem in that region,plus secure east anglia as agricultural production.

 

[squizzler]

I am not so sure. China lacks democratic freedom and the virus problem has been used as an excuse to increase surveillance. These people would not need more powers if they were in a strong position, and it is far from inconceivable that the protests already occuring in Hong Kong will spread.

I think the European Union is in the strongest position. It is full of former colonial powers who have accumulated experience of how to let go of their territories when they are no longer a net benefit. The American and Chinese empires have not got that experience, and their breakup is likely to prove more catastrophic. The Russian empire has already broken up, and because the birth rathe plummeted after the Soviet Union, it is a continental sized old person's home, which is not a great place to be when there is a virus about that is fatal to the elderly...

 

[hooverboy]

I am not so sure. China lacks democratic freedom and the virus problem has been used as an excuse to increase surveillance. These people would not need more powers if they were in a strong position, and it is far from inconceivable that the protests already occuring in Hong Kong will spread.

I disagree.
the powers that be,irrespective of which country they are in, like power..and control.end of story.
This is why government needs to be limited.

A government big enough to give you everything you want,is big enough to take away everything you need.
It might seem benevolent now, but a lot of people will get hooked on the state support and become dependent on it.

it doesn't take a genius to work out that a clique of government(of whatever persuasion) would seek to exploit this market,in much the same way a drug dealer would exploit their market by giving out free samples of their narcotic to begin with,to get people addicted.

 

[Clayton]

A drop in real terms is probably the way to go. Reducing the actual number causes negative equity which can cause massive people. So what they really want to achieve is to keep a £250,000 house now costing £250,000 through a period of inflation - i.e. no increase in numeric terms for a long period so a reduction in real terms. That harms nobody and benefits almost everybody (except investors, but they'll just flog up and get out with the intended effect).

I suppose the issue for the Government would be no Capital Gains Tax as there would be no capital gains (unless from refurbishment or extension).

I don’t think there will be a house price crash. With interest rates so low there aren’t many places to invest money and richer people will snap up houses to rent out. All leads to more wealth ending up in fewer hands, sadly.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I’m very much an optimist and, whilst I don’t see any “seismic” changes, I think when all this is over, there will be a lot of positives within the UK.

• People have discovered over the past few weeks a new spirit of community and selflessness; a far cry from the “me first” attitude so many people seemed to have before the lockdown
• We will be a lot more appreciative of the NHS and show far more gratitude for the efforts of NHS workers to keep us safe should we fall ill.
• People will hopefully become far less materialistic and realise that success in life isn’t measured by material wealth but by the quality of life and the people we share it with.
• We will value far more the things we used to take for granted; the freedom to go for a walk anywhere we like, to travel to nice places and to go out with friends for food and drink.
• We will hopefully adjust our work life balance for the better. It’s always struck me as strange that so many people work themselves into the ground 5 days a week so they can spend the other two days spending the money they’ve earned to forget how miserable the other 5 days have been! Perhaps in the long-term flexible working and home working will enable us to drop down to 4 or even 3-day weeks?

Yes, there will be some who may struggle financially post the lockdown but when we look back on this period, I think many of us will feel it’s been a great chance to take a step back at our lives and question what we do and why we do it.

 

[takno]

I’m very much an optimist and, whilst I don’t see any “seismic” changes, I think when all this is over, there will be a lot of positives within the UK.

• People have discovered over the past few weeks a new spirit of community and selflessness; a far cry from the “me first” attitude so many people seemed to have before the lockdown
• We will be a lot more appreciative of the NHS and show far more gratitude for the efforts of NHS workers to keep us safe should we fall ill.
• People will hopefully become far less materialistic and realise that success in life isn’t measured by material wealth but by the quality of life and the people we share it with.
• We will value far more the things we used to take for granted; the freedom to go for a walk anywhere we like, to travel to nice places and to go out with friends for food and drink.
• We will hopefully adjust our work life balance for the better. It’s always struck me as strange that so many people work themselves into the ground 5 days a week so they can spend the other two days spending the money they’ve earned to forget how miserable the other 5 days have been! Perhaps in the long-term flexible working and home working will enable us to drop down to 4 or even 3-day weeks?

Yes, there will be some who may struggle financially post the lockdown but when we look back on this period, I think many of us will feel it’s been a great chance to take a step back at our lives and question what we do and why we do it.

I haven't been able to get near the community, and as far as I'm aware the charity sector and any real organisation is collapsing, while the hapless government is collapsing respect for any authority figures. I already cared about the NHS. If anything I'm more materialistic now because literally all the routes I have to spending money and making myself happier are through online shopping, or buying anonymous online services. Personally I've also been working 6 or 7 day weeks trying to keep out fledgling business from cratering, but thanks for the dull homily on how much free time everybody's got.

It seems your lockdown has been rather different

 

[RichT54]

I’m very much an optimist and, whilst I don’t see any “seismic” changes, I think when all this is over, there will be a lot of positives within the UK.

• People have discovered over the past few weeks a new spirit of community and selflessness; a far cry from the “me first” attitude so many people seemed to have before the lockdown
• We will be a lot more appreciative of the NHS and show far more gratitude for the efforts of NHS workers to keep us safe should we fall ill.
• People will hopefully become far less materialistic and realise that success in life isn’t measured by material wealth but by the quality of life and the people we share it with.
• We will value far more the things we used to take for granted; the freedom to go for a walk anywhere we like, to travel to nice places and to go out with friends for food and drink.
• We will hopefully adjust our work life balance for the better. It’s always struck me as strange that so many people work themselves into the ground 5 days a week so they can spend the other two days spending the money they’ve earned to forget how miserable the other 5 days have been! Perhaps in the long-term flexible working and home working will enable us to drop down to 4 or even 3-day weeks?

Yes, there will be some who may struggle financially post the lockdown but when we look back on this period, I think many of us will feel it’s been a great chance to take a step back at our lives and question what we do and why we do it.

Well, there's optimism and then there is pure fantasy. Where is all the money going to come from to pay back the huge amounts the government is borrowing in order to fund the many consequences of the virus? I believe there will be tax increases, many companies failing, massive loss of jobs, and pension funds hit. This will lead to a large increase in the number of people in poverty. The country's finances will be wrecked for years if not decades to come, even without the additional impact of a no deal brexit.

 

[greyman42]

I believe there will be tax increases, many companies failing, massive loss of jobs, and pension funds hit.

The effect of the lockdown on pension funds seems to of gone largely over peoples heads. Companies not paying dividends was welcomed by most but these dividends drive the pension funds.

 

[RichT54]

Efforts by oil producers to increase the price of oil have failed spectacularly.

The price of US oil has turned negative for the first time in history.

That means oil producers are paying buyers to take the commodity off their hands over fears that storage capacity could run out in May.

Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52350082

 

[yorksrob]

I see that Beijing is again trying to deflect attention from it's handling of the virus crisis, this time accusing an Australian minister of being a "lackey" for calling for an investigation in to the virus's emergence and spread in China. I wonder what Beijing's diplomatic service expects to achieve from these sorts of pronouncements, because I can't see them dampening down any interest in the origins of the virus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52377357/page/2

In another war of words between China and the West, Beijing’s embassy in Australia has accused a senior government minister of being a lackey in the “propaganda war against China” by the US.

Washington has led calls in recent weeks for an investigation into the virus’ emergence and spread in China.

Australia’s Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton echoed such calls for Beijing to show transparency. He fell sick with the virus in March, and last week emerged to say Beijing owed answers to the families of the dead.

“It would certainly be demanded of us, if Australia was at the epicentre of this virus making its way into society,” he told the Nine Network.

In response, a Chinese embassy official told a state newspaper that "obviously he [Dutton] must have also received some instructions from Washington”.

Beijing has also criticised foreign minister, Marise Payne, who has also called for an investigation. Canberra has stood by the calls, saying they're in Australia's national interest.

 

[squizzler]

Good stuff: should Australia stop supplying them with coal, the climate will thank them.

 

[Meerkat]

Australia have a bit more leeway to annoy the Chinese.
Bet your backside the Chinese are telling most others....
”very disappointed with your people blaming us......anyway....about the PPE you want?”

 

[underbank]

The effect of the lockdown on pension funds seems to of gone largely over peoples heads. Companies not paying dividends was welcomed by most but these dividends drive the pension funds.

It's not just pension funds. Loads of big companies hold investments in other companies. Their value will drop as the value of underlying investments drop PLUS their profits will fall due to lower income from dividends etc. It could be a vicious downward spiral. Approx a quarter has already been knocked off share prices, and it wouldn't surprise me if that falls further when the consequences manifest themselves (i.e. more collapses etc). Added in tax rises, property price crash, etc., we're in for a hard few years. Got to hope the govt can put all kinds of measures in place to stimulate our own economy, particularly beefing up the long neglected manufacturing industry.

 

[yorksrob]

Thinking about the situation of the airlines, I do wonder whether as a country we need to guard against some capital rich countries attempting to swoop in and take control of large sectors of the economy. We perhaps need to consider whether laissez-faire will be the best way to manage the economy in the event of the inevitable economic shock.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thinking about the situation of the airlines, I do wonder whether as a country we need to guard against some capital rich countries attempting to swoop in and take control of large sectors of the economy. We perhaps need to consider whether laissez-faire will be the best way to manage the economy in the event of the inevitable economic shock.

I think there may be a case for some good old fashioned protectionism in some areas.

 

[Meerkat]

I think there may be a case for some good old fashioned protectionism in some areas.

It’s the only reason I can see to nationalise BA.

 

[squizzler]

The good news for enthusiasts in sustainable transport is that city planning seems to be crystallising around the redesignation of streets away from motoring and towards 'humane' uses such as foot and cycle traffic. Urban air quality was a big factor in mortality rates, with or without novel viruses, and its pursuit is starting to look like being to urbanism this century what the battle for clean water and covered sewers was to the 1800's:

City leaders aim to shape green recovery from coronavirus crisis

Cities around the world are already planning for life after Covid-19, with a series of environmental initiatives being rolled out from Bogotá to Barcelona to ensure public safety and bolster the fight against climate breakdown.

(Continues)