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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

35B

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I'd be absolutely shocked if they do, at least least in terms of the 1st dose figure. It's theoretically possible they might eventually reach 66% of the population with two doses but it'll take a while to get there. A lot of people in the US are clearly going to have to get immunity exclusively through natural infection, as that is the path they have chosen.
In which case I suspect a good number of lucky folk stateside are going to acquire repeated doses of immunity as they find that the quack anti-vaxxers' belief in "natural" immunity isn't actually comparable to the efficacy of vaccination.
 
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MPs have approved compulsory vaccinations for care home staff in England, but a number of Conservatives rebels voiced anger at the plans.
From October, anyone working in a Care Quality Commission-registered care home in England must have two vaccine doses unless they have a medical exemption.
The House of Commons approved the regulations by 319 votes to 246.

What are your thoughts on this?
 

The Ham

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What are your thoughts on this?

Anything like this is always going to be controversial whatever the government did or said.

Say they don't have to have the vaccine and families will get upset that reasonable steps aren't being taken to protect their loved ones.

Say that they do have to have our and staff will get upset that they are being forced to do something against their will.
 

brad465

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It seems all adults have now been offered the vaccine, which has so far seen 88% of adults receive one dose/take up the offer, with 68% double-dosed. Assuming that all those go for second ones, or maybe just a few % points less, this is a very high uptake that exceeded expectations of around 75% initially IIRC.


Every adult in the UK has been offered a Covid vaccine ahead of restrictions easing in England on Monday, the government says.
Around 88% of adults have had a first dose and around 68% have had both, according to the latest figures.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the vaccination target had been met and it was an "extraordinary achievement".
It comes as more than 50,000 daily cases were recorded on both Friday and Saturday - levels last seen in January.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced on Saturday he had tested positive for Covid-19 and was suffering "very mild" symptoms.
Mr Javid, who has had both doses of a vaccine, said a positive lateral flow test was later confirmed by a PCR test and he will isolate and work from home.
It is understood Mr Javid met Mr Johnson on Friday but it is not clear yet whether the prime minister will have to isolate.
 

Cdd89

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It’s great news, but the high average level conceals pockets of low take-up. In the local authority I live in, only 61% have taken a first dose; or 77% of the vulnerable age groups (50+). I am not in favour of making vaccines mandatory, directly or otherwise, but equally restrictions to protect the unvaccinated are not acceptable; that means accepting the ongoing spread and deaths that many areas of London will sadly be looking at.
 

nlogax

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It looks to me as if we're reaching the point where mass vaccination is going to slow to a crawl. 12% of the adult population has yet to take up the offer of their first vaccination. We were always aware of the likely slowing of uptake when descending through the age groups, but the rolling weekly average has halved since late spring / early summer. This final push is pretty frustrating.
 

DelayRepay

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It looks to me as if we're reaching the point where mass vaccination is going to slow to a crawl. 12% of the adult population has yet to take up the offer of their first vaccination. We were always aware of the likely slowing of uptake when descending through the age groups, but the rolling weekly average has halved since late spring / early summer. This final push is pretty frustrating.

Indeed, and the government 'bribes' involving not needing to isolate if you return from an Amber country (except France) or if you're a close contact (from 16 August) don't really seem to have prompted any increase. I thought the travel related 'bribe' would have led to more demand for vaccines. The release from isolation less so as perhaps people who don't want to be vaccinated are correlated with people who would ignore isolation instructions (or see it as a good thing to get two weeks paid time off work, depending on their job)
 

Domh245

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It looks to me as if we're reaching the point where mass vaccination is going to slow to a crawl. 12% of the adult population has yet to take up the offer of their first vaccination. We were always aware of the likely slowing of uptake when descending through the age groups, but the rolling weekly average has halved since late spring / early summer. This final push is pretty frustrating.

I think it's worth remembering that there's a pretty severe strain on capacity now. There's around 1.25m doses a week of mRNA (1.15m pfizer & 100k moderna), or just shy of 180,000 a day on average, which we're still just about beating, presumably with some 'mopping up' of older people with Astrazeneca and burning through stockpiles. If we go back 8 weeks to see how many first doses we were doing, it was round about 200,000 a day. Even with all the nudging, we can't magic doses up out of thin air.
 

WelshBluebird

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It looks to me as if we're reaching the point where mass vaccination is going to slow to a crawl. 12% of the adult population has yet to take up the offer of their first vaccination. We were always aware of the likely slowing of uptake when descending through the age groups, but the rolling weekly average has halved since late spring / early summer. This final push is pretty frustrating.
I wonder if a more localised / group specific message is needed now?

For the higher updake areas, I think we are probably pretty much done. Everyone who will get the vaccine has at least had the first one, and in some of those areas we are talking about just under 90% (interestingly it looks like there are no English council areas with more than 90% of adults having the first jab but there are multiple Scottish council areas achieving that).
But for the lower uptake areas, we are still hovering in the 60%'s so it feels like quite a bit of work could still be done in those areas.
 

nlogax

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I think it's worth remembering that there's a pretty severe strain on capacity now.

Tbh I wasn't aware we were hitting supply constraints. In which case that's actually good news. It's preferable that the demand for vaccines stays high and that the arms are there to be presented when stocks are available. @WelshBluebird's point is a good one though. Are we having to transport unused vaccines hundreds of miles to meet demands elsewhere in the country? Some of the local variations really are quite stark.
 

island

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I’m aware of someone who was notified to self-isolate by the app and the self-isolation time covered her vaccine appointment; when she looked to rebook (two days before the appointment) the next available appointment in the same venue was 9 days hence, or 5 days in a different location.
 

hwl

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I think it's worth remembering that there's a pretty severe strain on capacity now. There's around 1.25m doses a week of mRNA (1.15m pfizer & 100k moderna), or just shy of 180,000 a day on average, which we're still just about beating, presumably with some 'mopping up' of older people with Astrazeneca and burning through stockpiles. If we go back 8 weeks to see how many first doses we were doing, it was round about 200,000 a day. Even with all the nudging, we can't magic doses up out of thin air.
The first order of Pfizer was 40.0m doses and over 20m first doses of Pfizer have been given hence a lot of the people who have recently received Pfizer will be getting their second doses from the second order which is due in September. Hence Moderna (7m doses or 3.5m people) is doing a lot of the vaccinations at the moment.
Hence lack of mRNA vaccine supply means the JCVI can't recommend vaccinating ALL 12-18s with out massive highlighting that there is no supply for under 18s till probably October (you can't say the emperor has no clothes!).

We could soon be exporting a lot of AZ....
 

Domh245

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The first order of Pfizer was 40.0m doses and over 20m first doses of Pfizer have been given hence a lot of the people who have recently received Pfizer will be getting their second doses from the second order which is due in September. Hence Moderna (7m doses or 3.5m people) is doing a lot of the vaccinations at the moment.

Yes, the second batch of Pfizer and it's timeliness is a significant factor too. I saw a post on reddit where someone had crunched the numbers (which is where I'd then also gone and done some checks myself) and they're expecting that if we stick to an 8 week interval (as recommended) we'll run out of Pfizer before September when the second batch starts to come through. The fact that people will be isolating as a result of positive test (/contacts) and thus unable to go to appointments at 8 weeks (or for first doses) should help tide things over, but it is far from ideal!

Moderna should be doing a lot of the vaccinations, but the MHRA data shows it's chugging along at the same rate as ever, which means we're also now getting to the point where it's ability to do first doses dries up as it starts going through second doses (unless we'd been receiving twice as much moderna as had been going into arms so that we can keep a steady 100k/week first doses regardless)
 

Silver Cobra

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Speaking of the 8-week interval, yesterday I received both an email and a text message from the NHS vaccination service offering me the chance to move my second dose appointment forward (I'm currently booked for 12th August, which is 11 weeks after my first dose). However, as things stand, I'm going to pass up on moving my second appointment forward. The main reason for this is, as my eldest brother works as a marshal at the Priory House vaccination centre in Chicksands (my nearest vaccination centre and where I'm booked to go for my second appointment), he informed me that the centre isn't reopening until at least 1st August, and I'm away on holiday as of the day before (31st July). By the time I get back, it'll be 12th August anyways, as I planned my holiday around the booked second appointment. Checking the link provided in the email actually informs me that there are currently no earlier appointments available at Priory House anyways. As such, I would have to cancel my existing appointment to try getting an earlier one from a different vaccination centre, which I'm very reluctant to do.
 

DelayRepay

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As such, I would have to cancel my existing appointment to try getting an earlier one from a different vaccination centre, which I'm very reluctant to do.

If it's Pfizer you need, and you are keen to have it earlier, you could try one of the walk in centres. No need to cancel your appointment until you've been jabbed.

 

The Ham

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If it's Pfizer you need, and you are keen to have it earlier, you could try one of the walk in centres. No need to cancel your appointment until you've been jabbed.


When I went to a walk in session and received my second dose my second appointment was automatically cancelled (I went to cancel it myself within 24 hours and it wasn't there and then I also got a follow-up text confirming that it had been cancelled within 36 hours).
 

yorkie

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I would recommend waiting 8 (or more) weeks in line with the latest advice, however if anyone is desperate to go abroad I can see why they'd want to bring it forward (many countries will accept you 2 weeks post the 2nd jab)
 

brad465

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I think it's worth remembering that there's a pretty severe strain on capacity now. There's around 1.25m doses a week of mRNA (1.15m pfizer & 100k moderna), or just shy of 180,000 a day on average, which we're still just about beating, presumably with some 'mopping up' of older people with Astrazeneca and burning through stockpiles. If we go back 8 weeks to see how many first doses we were doing, it was round about 200,000 a day. Even with all the nudging, we can't magic doses up out of thin air.
The first order of Pfizer was 40.0m doses and over 20m first doses of Pfizer have been given hence a lot of the people who have recently received Pfizer will be getting their second doses from the second order which is due in September. Hence Moderna (7m doses or 3.5m people) is doing a lot of the vaccinations at the moment.
Hence lack of mRNA vaccine supply means the JCVI can't recommend vaccinating ALL 12-18s with out massive highlighting that there is no supply for under 18s till probably October (you can't say the emperor has no clothes!).

We could soon be exporting a lot of AZ....
Yes it does sound like the threat/introduction of vaccine passports is in part perhaps trying to cover up the lack of supply as if it's actually down to lack of taking up offers. I wonder what the probability of AZ being approved for those yet to take up, but being given the choice of that one or another, is to try and speed up rollout? If we do export a lot more AZ very soon I'm also trying to work out if the Government will want this being reported widely or not: reporting it favours narratives about generosity, but a drawback is some question why we're exporting when our rollout isn't finished (regardless of how right or wrong that is).
 

island

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I would recommend waiting 8 (or more) weeks in line with the latest advice, however if anyone is desperate to go abroad I can see why they'd want to bring it forward (many countries will accept you 2 weeks post the 2nd jab)
And some even sooner – France 7 days post any 2nd jab, Ireland 7 days post 2nd Pfizer or 1st AZ.
 

ainsworth74

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Moderna should be doing a lot of the vaccinations, but the MHRA data shows it's chugging along at the same rate as ever, which means we're also now getting to the point where it's ability to do first doses dries up as it starts going through second doses (unless we'd been receiving twice as much moderna as had been going into arms so that we can keep a steady 100k/week first doses regardless)

I think that probably makes sense as I would have thought we'd be starting to get heavily into second doses of Moderna? Certainly my second jab (which will be Moderna) is only a week and a half away so I'm sure that the numbers of people needing a second jab of Moderna will begin to increase. Though at 88% of adults having gotten a first jab in some respects we probably need to worry less about the headline first jab figure and more about where the pockets of people who haven't gotten one (and are open for getting one rather than just not wanting one) are and getting jabs into their arms.

I do wonder if it's time to move to a more targeted phase? Rather than just throwing open the doors and asking people to rock up at centres for walk-ins or book via 119 or online (or for those whose GPs aren't abdicating all responsibility like mine via their GP) starting to get local public health teams pounding pavements and engaging with people face to face to address concerns, provide information and help them book jabs?
 

Domh245

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I do wonder if it's time to move to a more targeted phase? Rather than just throwing open the doors and asking people to rock up at centres for walk-ins or book via 119 or online (or for those whose GPs aren't abdicating all responsibility like mine via their GP) starting to get local public health teams pounding pavements and engaging with people face to face to address concerns, provide information and help them book jabs?

In fairness, I think they're starting to do that. I had someone with a bright NHS vaccination tabard come to the door recently asking me if I'd had my vaccine. My borough is about 68% first dosed, so it's an area where that sort of thing would help (though I think that I counted as Nottingham for my first jab as I was still registered with my university GP!)

this page has a bit of info - it's the same commissioning group
 

ainsworth74

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In fairness, I think they're starting to do that. I had someone with a bright NHS vaccination tabard come to the door recently asking me if I'd had my vaccine. My borough is about 68% first dosed, so it's an area where that sort of thing would help (though I think that I counted as Nottingham for my first jab as I was still registered with my university GP!)

this page has a bit of info - it's the same commissioning group
Excellent news!
 

Bantamzen

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In fairness, I think they're starting to do that. I had someone with a bright NHS vaccination tabard come to the door recently asking me if I'd had my vaccine. My borough is about 68% first dosed, so it's an area where that sort of thing would help (though I think that I counted as Nottingham for my first jab as I was still registered with my university GP!)

this page has a bit of info - it's the same commissioning group
I'm not convinced this is a very efficient way of mopping up quite frankly. Randomly going door to door in the hope of convincing some to go ahead is not going to yield much use. This is where NHS should be purposed, actually finding those people they know haven't vaccinated yet & having a professional health discussion with them, not some punter with a clipboard having a chat on the doorstep.
 

Domh245

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I'm not convinced this is a very efficient way of mopping up quite frankly. Randomly going door to door in the hope of convincing some to go ahead is not going to yield much use. This is where NHS should be purposed, actually finding those people they know haven't vaccinated yet & having a professional health discussion with them, not some punter with a clipboard having a chat on the doorstep.

I think that sort of thing has largely already happened. There's been reports on the forum about people being rung multiple times by GPs to try and get them to book, so the NHS can and probably is already going through the list of people they know who haven't been jabbed and is trying to bring them in.

Sending people round the doorsteps is the sensible next step, which will help find people who aren't on the NHS's records (or have the wrong record/refuse to answer the phone, etc), and starts the conversation - if needs be then putting them in touch with a more suited healthcare professional. When doing this sort of thing, you just go for the "knock every door" than giving them a hitlist of addresses which don't have a a vaccine record associated with them. and accept that you'll get a fair few "already had its".
 

Bantamzen

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I think that sort of thing has largely already happened. There's been reports on the forum about people being rung multiple times by GPs to try and get them to book, so the NHS can and probably is already going through the list of people they know who haven't been jabbed and is trying to bring them in.

Sending people round the doorsteps is the sensible next step, which will help find people who aren't on the NHS's records (or have the wrong record/refuse to answer the phone, etc), and starts the conversation - if needs be then putting them in touch with a more suited healthcare professional. When doing this sort of thing, you just go for the "knock every door" than giving them a hitlist of addresses which don't have a a vaccine record associated with them. and accept that you'll get a fair few "already had its".
Very much a needle in a haystack operation though. Pretty much every adult in country will know they could step up for a vaccine, so trying to find let alone convince the last 10% or so by banging on doors & hoping they'll say "oh go on then" really doesn't sound like a good use of resources. I mean what's to stop someone just lying, which frankly if they are determined to not have a vaccine is what they might do. Whilst there might be pockets of areas with lower take-up, a lot of the remaining 10% will be in higher areas, perhaps even in households with others vaccinated. And of course none of that takes into account those who can't have a vaccine in the first place.

Like a lot of measures taken by this government, its more for show than do.
 

yorksrob

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Very much a needle in a haystack operation though. Pretty much every adult in country will know they could step up for a vaccine, so trying to find let alone convince the last 10% or so by banging on doors & hoping they'll say "oh go on then" really doesn't sound like a good use of resources. I mean what's to stop someone just lying, which frankly if they are determined to not have a vaccine is what they might do. Whilst there might be pockets of areas with lower take-up, a lot of the remaining 10% will be in higher areas, perhaps even in households with others vaccinated. And of course none of that takes into account those who can't have a vaccine in the first place.

Like a lot of measures taken by this government, its more for show than do.

Probably worth it in areas of low take up, high transient population, large numbers where English isn't a first language etc.
 

Bantamzen

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Probably worth it in areas of low take up, high transient population, large numbers where English isn't a first language etc.
I suspect even in those areas most people are aware of the vaccines, and the value vs risk of them. And frankly at this stage a doorstep stranger isn't going to be that effective in changing people's minds. At this point those as yet unvaccinated, and perhaps still in a high risk group need to have the NHS & their professionals talk to them about it.
 

yorksrob

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I suspect even in those areas most people are aware of the vaccines, and the value vs risk of them. And frankly at this stage a doorstep stranger isn't going to be that effective in changing people's minds. At this point those as yet unvaccinated, and perhaps still in a high risk group need to have the NHS & their professionals talk to them about it.

That would help as well.
 

Bantamzen

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That would help as well.
I think for some people reluctant to have a vaccine, talking to their doctor about it would be more effective than some stranger knocking on the door. But the honest reality is that some people for various reasons won't want it one way or another, and we just have to accept that instead of chasing percentage targets. 88% of all adults with at least one dose is very good and many countries would love to have number that high.
 

The Ham

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I think for some people reluctant to have a vaccine, talking to their doctor about it would be more effective than some stranger knocking on the door. But the honest reality is that some people for various reasons won't want it one way or another, and we just have to accept that instead of chasing percentage targets. 88% of all adults with at least one dose is very good and many countries would love to have number that high.

Yes and no.

Yes, where we've got >85% 1st dose take-up there's little point getting a few percentage points more with the vaccine.

However there's areas (not many) where first dose uptake is low. Where you've got 1:2 or even 1:1 ratios (and there's at least an area in Reading where there's fewer than 50% first doses) going for to door makes sense.

Not that it'll make much difference at a national level. However for those areas or could make a large difference in the local hospitals if they can get it up above 75%.
 

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