West Coast Franchise speculation

[Huntergreed]

I just remembered that the WCML was open for bidding last year, and I have not heard any news regarding who has won the franchise, has there been any news regarding this??

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I just remembered that the WCML was open for bidding last year, and I have not heard any news regarding who has won the franchise, has there been any news regarding this??

Do keep up!
Before the ICWC ITT went out last year, the DfT decided to merge it with the first few years of HS2 operation.
So they are being let together as the "West Coast Partnership".
Bidding starts next year, ops to start 2019 (HS2 in 2026).
VT got another year's extension on current terms until then.
Bidders have to have high-speed credentials to bid, and we already have First/Trenitalia and Virgin/Stagecoach/SNCF consortia declared.
HS2 Ltd (not the WCP operator) will specify and buy the rolling stock for HS2, which will all be classic compatible.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ith-the-introduction-of-high-speed-2-services

 

[Huntergreed]

Ah I see - apologies. Another quick Q, following the introduction of HS2 will there be any fully direct (no changes required) trains between London and Glasgow via the WCML, or will a change at the northern end of HS2 be required?

 

[edwin_m]

Ah I see - apologies. Another quick Q, following the introduction of HS2 will there be any fully direct (no changes required) trains between London and Glasgow via the WCML, or will a change at the northern end of HS2 be required?

On current plans, HS2 phase 1 will leave Birmingham-Scotland trains on existing infrastructure throughout. If the existing arrangement is perpetuated these will be London-Birmingham-Scotland, but it's probably more likely that the London-Birmingham leg will be taken off and replaced by a HS2 service. After opening of Phase 2 all London-Scotland WCML trains will use HS2 south of Golborne, though they will of course still use the northern half of the WCML.

The new operator may have the scope to make changes to these proposals.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

When HS2 opens, London-Glasgow direct will use it and then the WCML as now north of Lichfield (north of Crewe when HS2a comes in).
When HS2b opens (HS2 extended to Golborne), London-Edinburgh direct trains will also use the route.
However there is time to rethink all this. The point of integrating the ICWC and HS2 franchises is to plan the optimum solution.
To date we've only really heard the HS2 Ltd view.
Scotland will also have a view linked to their own high speed plans (if there are any).
There is talk of upgrading some sections of the WCML, but they are not thought through yet.

 

[Gadget88]

Is it true Labour want to extend it to Scotland but Torys don't?

 

[WatcherZero]

There was an independent feasability study commissioned jointly by UK and Scotland governments into where and how to continue HS2 to Scotland which found it wasnt economicallly worthwhile to build a whole new dedicated line to Scotland in one go but it was beneficial to spend a few billion raising line speeds on the WCML and adressing pinch points between Wigan and the border and then keep progressivley replacing sections at a time and building passing loops as route budgets allow so that after two or three decades you would have about 80% new line.

There was also a bit of an impasse in that the report favoured the west coast for the route because thats the side Glasgow is on which is responsible for about 2/3rds of demand and going along the east coast would be slower as you would have to pass through Edinburgh to reach Glasgow, while the Scottish government favours an east coast route because they want a high speed service to Newcastle.

 

[Simon11]

You may be getting confused with the London Midlands franchise? They were bidding last year and we should find out the results in June, although it may slip with July with the elections.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You may be getting confused with the London Midlands franchise? They were bidding last year and we should find out the results in June, although it may slip with July with the elections.

Is there a possibility that, if there is a Labour victory, it might never be awarded?

 

[NotATrainspott]

There was an independent feasability study commissioned jointly by UK and Scotland governments into where and how to continue HS2 to Scotland which found it wasnt economicallly worthwhile to build a whole new dedicated line to Scotland in one go but it was beneficial to spend a few billion raising line speeds on the WCML and adressing pinch points between Wigan and the border and then keep progressivley replacing sections at a time and building passing loops as route budgets allow so that after two or three decades you would have about 80% new line.

There was also a bit of an impasse in that the report favoured the west coast for the route because thats the side Glasgow is on which is responsible for about 2/3rds of demand and going along the east coast would be slower as you would have to pass through Edinburgh to reach Glasgow, while the Scottish government favours an east coast route because they want a high speed service to Newcastle.

I don't believe there is an impasse. Alex Salmond talked about Newcastle as a place which could be further integrated into Scotland with HSR but he never really called the shots for long-term route planning. Apart from that I don't recall there being any stated preference.

Also, the degree of WCML upgrade that was deemed worthwhile was extremely limited. Incremental upgrades can be expected as slower junction sections become life-expired and are replaced with higher-speed units, but these would happen regardless of HS2. The only noticeable upgrade it suggested would happen was four-tracking between Wigan and Preston and grade-separating Euxton Junction. That work would also be justified without HS2, as it will make it easier to path post-HS2 fast passenger services alongside extra freight.

 

[The Planner]

Euxton won't be getting grade separated any time soon.

 

[AndrewE]

When HS2 opens, London-Glasgow direct will use it and then the WCML as now north of Lichfield (north of Crewe when HS2a comes in).
When HS2b opens (HS2 extended to Golborne), London-Edinburgh direct trains will also use the route...

That sounds suspiciously like the alternate-hour Birmingham-Crewe-Edinburgh services will disappear. Bad news for people for Edinburgh feeding in to the WCML from the Stoke and Shrewsbury lines - and vv. No stops for them to change at Carstairs (or portions detached either) I suppose. Boo!

 

[All Line Rover]

My understanding is that they will transfer to HS2. Not calling at Wolverhampton obviously, and probably not at Stafford (definitely not post phase 2b). The hub station at Crewe is in the pipeline but details not confirmed. Crewe is an ideal interchange for passengers from Shrewsbury, Stafford and Trent Valley and Milton Keynes, Stoke, Wilmslow, Runcorn, and Chester and North Wales. Wigan only works as an interchange for passengers from Warrington, Liverpool and Manchester.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

That sounds suspiciously like the alternate-hour Birmingham-Crewe-Edinburgh services will disappear. Bad news for people for Edinburgh feeding in to the WCML from the Stoke and Shrewsbury lines - and vv. No stops for them to change at Carstairs (or portions detached either) I suppose. Boo!

I don't think it means that.
It means the ECML services to Edinburgh will reduce or be cut back to Newcastle.
There will be a big east v west debate first, mind.
One of the big points of the HS2 extensions is to speed up Birmingham-North West services.
So I doubt if current services will stay the same.
Birmingham-Manchester via HS2 will be a fraction of the time via Wolverhampton and Stoke.

 

[Class 170101]

I cannot see East Coast services being cut back to Newcastle. There will still be demand for direct services between Peterborough and intermediate stations to Edinburgh which won't be served via HS2 either phase 1 or 2(a/b).

 

[edwin_m]

I cannot see East Coast services being cut back to Newcastle. There will still be demand for direct services between Peterborough and intermediate stations to Edinburgh which won't be served via HS2 either phase 1 or 2(a/b).

On current plans HS2 services won't go north of Newcastle so much of the existing service will indeed have to continue, not just for Peterborough but for journeys such as Edinburgh-Leeds. There's also the question of through trains north of Edinburgh, which would probably only go onto HS2 (as extensions of trains that would otherwise terminate at Edinburgh) if Scotland pays for the extra trains.

 

[Class 170101]

There's also the question of through trains north of Edinburgh, which would probably only go onto HS2 (as extensions of trains that would otherwise terminate at Edinburgh) if Scotland pays for the extra trains.

I didn't think HS Trains were being ordered as bi-modes though? So unless there is provision to attach a Diesel locomotive to the front

 

[takno]

On current plans HS2 services won't go north of Newcastle so much of the existing service will indeed have to continue, not just for Peterborough but for journeys such as Edinburgh-Leeds. There's also the question of through trains north of Edinburgh, which would probably only go onto HS2 (as extensions of trains that would otherwise terminate at Edinburgh) if Scotland pays for the extra trains.

Peterborough basically has no direct services at the moment anyway, so the ability to stop there without slowing down the headline times to London would be pretty handy. Not sure where Edinburgh-Leeds comes into it since that isn't served by Scotland-London trains at all, but is served by XC flows and will be getting Transpennine services in the near future.

 

[PR1Berske]

That sounds suspiciously like the alternate-hour Birmingham-Crewe-Edinburgh services will disappear. Bad news for people for Edinburgh feeding in to the WCML from the Stoke and Shrewsbury lines - and vv. No stops for them to change at Carstairs (or portions detached either) I suppose. Boo!

Supporters of HS2 try to hide the uncomfortable truths about how the scheme actually means services will be lost on the WCML, invalidating their claim that that line is supposedly over capacity.

Only by scrapping HS2 will the passengers you state not suffer the bad news of losing perfectly good services.

 

[The Planner]

What services will be lost? Short of moving this into the HS2 forum, no one knows what the timetable will be yet.

 

[edwin_m]

I didn't think HS Trains were being ordered as bi-modes though? So unless there is provision to attach a Diesel locomotive to the front

The Scots would probably expect to have electrification to Aberdeen and Inverness by 2032.

 

[edwin_m]

Peterborough basically has no direct services at the moment anyway, so the ability to stop there without slowing down the headline times to London would be pretty handy. Not sure where Edinburgh-Leeds comes into it since that isn't served by Scotland-London trains at all, but is served by XC flows and will be getting Transpennine services in the near future.

Edinburgh-Leeds is still part of the existing service on the northern ECML which is what I was referring to.

 

[edwin_m]

Supporters of HS2 try to hide the uncomfortable truths about how the scheme actually means services will be lost on the WCML, invalidating their claim that that line is supposedly over capacity.

Only by scrapping HS2 will the passengers you state not suffer the bad news of losing perfectly good services.

#13 has already pointed out that it is probable the Birmingham-Edinburgh trains will continue to run via HS2 and call at Crewe for Stoke and Shrewsbury connections.

The idea is exactly that some services that cater for through flows between the main centres will come off the WCML, to be replaced by others that are slower end to end but provide more stops at places in between. I don't know why some people can't or won't grasp this. You'r entitled to be opposed to HS2 but you have more credibility if your opinion is backed by facts.

 

[Class 170101]

The Scots would probably expect to have electrification to Aberdeen and Inverness by 2032.

More so than the electrification of the core cross country network that I think we should be aiming at by then.

 

[WatcherZero]

Governments today announced West Coast Partnership bidders.

First Trenitalia West Coast Ltd, a joint venture between First Rail Holdings Limited and Trenitalia SpA
MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between MTR Corporation (UK) Ltd and Guangshen Railway Company), with the following Key Sub-Contractors: Deloitte MCS Ltd, Panasonic Systems Europe, Snowfall AB, Trainline.com Ltd and WSP Parsons Brinkerhoff
West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between Stagecoach Group plc, Virgin Holdings Ltd and SNCF C3

The All Chinese bid with some local subcontractors is a surprise, Guangshen presumably there for the high speed experience (though the line is in general not high speed, slower than UK mainlines) as its just across the border from MTR (Hong Kong subway) but its a minnow, the companies worth around £500m a tenth of MTR though about 60% of MTR profit comes from property development rather than transport operations.

Also announced today South Eastern bidders.

South Eastern Holdings Limited, a joint venture company that on franchise award will be wholly owned by Abellio Transport Group Limited and East Japan Railway Company and Mitsui & Co Limited
London and South East Passenger Rail Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Govia Limited
Stagecoach South Eastern Trains Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Stagecoach Group plc
Trenitalia UK Limited, wholly owned by Trenitalia SpA

Bit more classic bidders here.

Two new companies received PQQ passports as well, Amey Rail Limited and SNCF C3

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Governments today announced West Coast Partnership bidders.

First Trenitalia West Coast Ltd, a joint venture between First Rail Holdings Limited and Trenitalia SpA
MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between MTR Corporation (UK) Ltd and Guangshen Railway Company), with the following Key Sub-Contractors: Deloitte MCS Ltd, Panasonic Systems Europe, Snowfall AB, Trainline.com Ltd and WSP Parsons Brinkerhoff
West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between Stagecoach Group plc, Virgin Holdings Ltd and SNCF C3

The All Chinese bid with some local subcontractors is a surprise, Guangshen presumably there for the high speed experience (though the line is in general not high speed, slower than UK mainlines) as its just across the border from MTR (Hong Kong subway) but its a minnow, the companies worth around £500m a tenth of MTR though about 60% of MTR profit comes from property development rather than transport operations.

Also announced today South Eastern bidders.

South Eastern Holdings Limited, a joint venture company that on franchise award will be wholly owned by Abellio Transport Group Limited and East Japan Railway Company and Mitsui & Co Limited
London and South East Passenger Rail Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Govia Limited
Stagecoach South Eastern Trains Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Stagecoach Group plc
Trenitalia UK Limited, wholly owned by Trenitalia SpA

Bit more classic bidders here.

Two new companies received PQQ passports as well, Amey Rail Limited and SNCF C3

At least we are out of the two-bids-only setups.
I'm surprised at the absence of DB/Arriva from both of these.
You'd have thought they could bid for West Coast without JV-ing with anybody else.
MTR is surprising as you'd have thought their hands would be full with Crossrail and South Western. Bidding against partners First too. But no doubt well backed financially.

Govia has evidently not given up bidding despite its travails on GTR/Southern.
We will soon find out if they stay or go on West Midlands.
If they go then Abellio will have a very significant portfolio, although they (ie NS) mustn't be interested in West Coast.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, I'll have to "vote" for the Chinese, as I don't want FirstGroup and I definitely don't want Trenitalia or SNCF.

I agree the absence of DB is strange and a real shame.

 

[HH]

At least we are out of the two-bids-only setups.
I'm surprised at the absence of DB/Arriva from both of these.
You'd have thought they could bid for West Coast without JV-ing with anybody else.
MTR is surprising as you'd have thought their hands would be full with Crossrail and South Western. Bidding against partners First too. But no doubt well backed financially.

Govia has evidently not given up bidding despite its travails on GTR/Southern.
We will soon find out if they stay or go on West Midlands.
If they go then Abellio will have a very significant portfolio, although they (ie NS) mustn't be interested in West Coast.

Arriva are concentrating on Wales & Borders and don't have the resources to go for South Eastern at the same time. No idea why they haven't gone for West Coast though.

Abellio have lost interest in high speed since NS got their head, hands and feet burned on their high speed plans.

I'd put money on Govia failing to retain SE. They're going to have a hard job persuading evaluators that they're a robust operator.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Safe to say that these Anglo companies are probably the way forward in terms of Rail Franchise bids.

I hope Virgin will win again but it's a VERY strong challenge from MTR/Guangshen - who have support of Deloitte, Panasonic, Snowball, Trainline & Brinkerhoff.

Surely that pulling power of 5 major firms will play into their hands, although who the heck are Snowball?! A quick search gives me not an ounce of an indication what they are...

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Snowfall, not Snowball. http://www.snowfall.se/