Re-openening Colne to Skipton, 'Financially Viable'

[61653 HTAFC]

For those with good memories, the rise and fall of Colne Dynamos, aided at first by much financial input from a certain personage, was indeed a wonder to behold.

They were the opposition at my first ever football match, the 1988 FA Vase final which they won 1-0 (AET) against Emley- a team from a settlement considerably smaller than Colne.

 

[AndyHudds]

Whilst a lot of people think its a waste of money and there are more deserving projects for the money being bandied about for the reinstatement. Surely, there are compelling arguments for the re-opening despite the cost.

The reinvigoration of East Lancashire's economy and more mobility with more employment opportunities elsewhere. As pointed out in the thread earlier on there are large Asian populations in East Lancs and Keighley plus the aforementioned Burnley fan base in the Craven area.

Its not just the the 14 mile stretch of reopened line is it, its what lies beyond, access to destinations beyond. Rose Grove could be utilised to strengthen the lines opportunities, if the proposed new service on the Tod Curve from Blackburn to Manchester calls at Rose Grove and there is good connection times people form the Aire Valley could access Manchester this way instead of going via Leeds. They could also get the Blackpool North service to call at Rose Grove as it once used to, to enable connections into Hebden Bridge.

I don't think the plan is such a lame duck as everyone thinks it is. Sure, the money could be utilised better and there are more deserving projects but it does have its merits.

Colne has a population of just over 18k with the station usage over 90k, which is quite good so obviously there are people using the stations along the route, so there is nothing to say the route wouldn't be well used in the opposite direction.

 

[JohnB57]

What strikes me from reading this thread is the focus on getting people out of East Lancashire to either earn or spend their money elsewhere rather than providing some attraction for them in the area. I'm sure the struggling traders of Burnley and Colne are thrilled at the prospect of their clientele moving their retail therapy over the Pennines.

However, even Andy, a general supporter of the scheme, sums it all up when he says...

Sure, the money could be utilised better and there are more deserving projects...

So that's where the money should be spent, surely?

 

[Deerfold]

Its not just the the 14 mile stretch of reopened line is it, its what lies beyond, access to destinations beyond. Rose Grove could be utilised to strengthen the lines opportunities, if the proposed new service on the Tod Curve from Blackburn to Manchester calls at Rose Grove and there is good connection times people form the Aire Valley could access Manchester this way instead of going via Leeds. They could also get the Blackpool North service to call at Rose Grove as it once used to, to enable connections into Hebden Bridge.

How would the times to Manchester compare with bussing it via Hebden Bridge?

The 500 bus from Keighley to Hebden Bridge has been improved from 3-4 services a day two days a week (daily in summer) to an hourly service for much of the day - it takes about 87 minutes from Keighley to Manchester now.

 

[Darren R]

Don't Burnley have a lot of season ticket holders/fans....

I would think that most unlikely!

 

[Welshman]

How would the times to Manchester compare with bussing it via Hebden Bridge?

The 500 bus from Keighley to Hebden Bridge has been improved from 3-4 services a day two days a week (daily in summer) to an hourly service for much of the day - it takes about 87 minutes from Keighley to Manchester now.

I also wonder about the demand for travel from the Aire Valley and Keighley to Manchester?

For, although as Deerfold says, there now is an excellent service afforded by the service 500, I have yet to find more than a handful of passengers out of Keighley remaining on the bus past Oxenhope, and most of those alight in Hebden Bridge centre, rather than continuing to the station.

But I've only used that service in the off-peak hours, Perhaps there are more in peak-time.

 

[AndyHudds]

I also wonder about the demand for travel from the Aire Valley and Keighley to Manchester?

For, although as Deerfold says, there now is an excellent service afforded by the service 500, I have yet to find more than a handful of passengers out of Keighley remaining on the bus past Oxenhope, and most of those alight in Hebden Bridge centre, rather than continuing to the station.

But I've only used that service in the off-peak hours, Perhaps there are more in peak-time.

To be fair 87 minutes each way isn't really a good journey time is it? I'd like to think a train would be quicker even with a change.

Just cos no one catches the bus for the full journey doesn't mean there wouldn't be a market for the train. In fact there probably is people just won't catch the current bus. I know I wouldn't. This is the whole point of the line, to open up new journey opportunities that weren't achievable or practical by public transport previously.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

As pointed out in the thread earlier on there are large Asian populations in East Lancs and Keighley plus the aforementioned Burnley fan base in the Craven area.

There are far more Asian families in the Nelson-Burnley-Blackburn region who use public transport from what I have seen in family groups and they tend to use the excellent bus services provided in these areas and the close positioning of bus stops saves them making a journey to a railway station.

 

[tbtc]

Another day passes with no news of whether this 6:1 ratio comes from a Parry People Mover or by electrifying/ double tracking everything in East Lancashire. It seems that the fewer actual details mentioned, the more attractive the SELRAP cause is to some (?)

How would the times to Manchester compare with bussing it via Hebden Bridge?

I also wonder about the demand for travel from the Aire Valley and Keighley to Manchester?

I don't know about the Hebden Bridge buses, but taking the train from Keighley and changing at Leeds would take just under 1h40 (which includes at least ten minutes connection at Leeds). With electrification speeding up the Transpennine journeys and talk of the frequency being increased from four/hour to six/hour through Huddersfield, that journey time ought to come down in future (say 1h30?).

Assuming that the current Colne - Blackpool South is diverted through to Manchester Victoria in the path of the current Clitheroe service (or if the two services connected perfectly at Blackburn) the best you could hope for would be around 1h30, so I don't think you'd have a chance of getting from Keighley to Colne via Skipton fast enough to make a through journey remotely competitive with changing at Leeds.

Whilst a lot of people think its a waste of money and there are more deserving projects for the money being bandied about for the reinstatement. Surely, there are compelling arguments for the re-opening despite the cost.

The reinvigoration of East Lancashire's economy and more mobility with more employment opportunities elsewhere. As pointed out in the thread earlier on there are large Asian populations in East Lancs and Keighley plus the aforementioned Burnley fan base in the Craven area.

Its not just the the 14 mile stretch of reopened line is it, its what lies beyond, access to destinations beyond. Rose Grove could be utilised to strengthen the lines opportunities, if the proposed new service on the Tod Curve from Blackburn to Manchester calls at Rose Grove and there is good connection times people form the Aire Valley could access Manchester this way instead of going via Leeds. They could also get the Blackpool North service to call at Rose Grove as it once used to, to enable connections into Hebden Bridge.

I don't think the plan is such a lame duck as everyone thinks it is. Sure, the money could be utilised better and there are more deserving projects but it does have its merits

So are you saying that there are better things to spend the money on, but we should still spend it on the SELRAP project?

Ok I'll bite �� i honestly can't see this succeeding anytime soon, my impression is that SELRAP is more style than substance, its ok to have political support but its only effective if that support is consistently vocal and is of course in todays political world beneficial to both parties.

I don't hear much from the MP's connected with this project, i wonder if that's because they feel the case for reopening isn't that strong but its good political capital to be seen to be associated.

I'm all for reopening rail links but as we all know they have to be based on sound economic & business reasons not nostalgia and emotion. Even if this line opened what level of subsidy would it need ? Rolling stock ? Paths etc etc. I still stand by my initial impression that it's a" talking shop" with good PR

Agreed

I have every admiration for SELRAP. They have garnered support. They have got the cause noticed

To be honest, they've done very well to promote such a "slim" scheme so prominently - their PR skills are a lot better than the cause that they are trying to promote.

Bolton-Bury-Rochdale should never have closed but that now upto TFGM to deal with

If we were only going to (re)open one twelve-ish mile long line in north western England then Bolton to Rochdale would be a much busier line (and we could bandy about the same "regeneration" / "strategic importance" / "green credentials" arguments that SELRAP have promoted so well).

But an urban line through Greater Manchester isn't going to be as quaint/ romantic/ attractive to get Floella Benjamin and John Kettley to support.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I don't know about the Hebden Bridge buses, but taking the train from Keighley and changing at Leeds would take just under 1h40 (which includes at least ten minutes connection at Leeds). With electrification speeding up the Transpennine journeys and talk of the frequency being increased from four/hour to six/hour through Huddersfield, that journey time ought to come down in future (say 1h30?).

May I enquire as to the pricing availabilities of such a rail journey via Leeds with some cost examples ?

 

[Deerfold]

To be fair 87 minutes each way isn't really a good journey time is it? I'd like to think a train would be quicker even with a change.

I don't know if it's reasonable - I was trying to find out what the proposed impovements might provide - hopefully better than this, but if not, there's not much point.

Just cos no one catches the bus for the full journey doesn't mean there wouldn't be a market for the train. In fact there probably is people just won't catch the current bus. I know I wouldn't. This is the whole point of the line, to open up new journey opportunities that weren't achievable or practical by public transport previously.

Why would you not catch the bus?

It's reliable and reasonably priced.

I think there's a fair few catch it to/from work, but at the moment that's basically only a couple of buses in each direction and no freedom to stay on after work for socialising if you want to get your bus home.

 

[Welshman]

Just cos no one catches the bus for the full journey doesn't mean there wouldn't be a market for the train.

I agree that when a rail link is re-opened it offers more journey possibilities, and some of these extra journeys may be generated from amongst those who would not otherwise have travelled.

But those who have to make the journey will do so as they have no choice, and the number using any alternative means, such as a bus/train link [which is what I remember the service 500 being intended to be when it was made hourly for most of the day], is surely a pointer as to whether the rail line should be re-opened? Otherwise, let's just start re-opening lines all over the country on the grounds that someone, sometime, may want to use them!

I don't understand your not wishing to use such a good bus link, as the current 87 minutes journey-time still seems to have the edge on any projected train times via Leeds, or a re-opened Skipton-Colne line.

Personally, if it were a choice between a pleasant journey on a comfortable bus through splendid Pennine countryside and then being delivered to the door of the station for my onward train journey, or crossing from platforms 1-4 to 16 at Leeds and hoping for a seat in a crowded 3-car 185, I know which I would chose.

 

[Lankyline]

if you want to take a cynical view of SELRAP's case then the reports undertaken in 2003 & 07 didn't really give the answers that i think they were looking for, eg low BCR figure, no realistic and/or quantifiable wider economic / financial benefits to the project.

So they are now advancing to the next stage hoping to have a better set of quantified economic / financial benefits that may come with any proposed reopening. On the other hand changes in the sociol, economic & industrial landscapes that have occurred since the last report may well work in their favour, who knows ??

The question is how wide do you spread the net looking for relevant "favouirable" benefits to help the case, for example, i can't see how bringing Leeds / Bradford into the case has relevance at this time. Plus Tod Curve, Potential A56 road upgrading, Blackburn / Bolton line upgrade etc potentially do not help their cause.

One thing is for sure a BCR figure of 6 is a complete myth

 

[Joseph_Locke]

One thing is for sure a BCR figure of 6 is a complete myth

Another thing is that a BCR of 6 is a very rare animal on any scheme. 4 is normally held to be "astonishingly good".

Based on SELRAP's own consultant's figures of £40m CAPEX plus £2m OPEX (lifetime cost therefore about £120m) a BCR of 6 suggests annual revenue at roughly £18m. That is very very very impressive for this line ....

 

[Deerfold]

May I enquire as to the pricing availabilities of such a rail journey via Leeds with some cost examples ?

For a peak day return (travelling from Keighley before 0745):

Via Hebden Bridge - if bought in advance (even just before travel from Keighley station) with PlusBus £11.40 Day Rtn + £3 PlusBus = £14.40

Via Hebden Bridge - if not bought in advance £11.40 Day Rtn + £4.80 Bus Day Ticket = £16.20

Advance Singles are available to/from Hebden Bridge on some trains for £3.50 and £4.00 - these may not be the trains that connect well with the buses.

Via Leeds - £31.10 Anytime Rtn (No Day Rtn)

Advance fares are available from Leeds if you split.

If I go to Manchester from home I always do it via Hebden Bridge.

 

[AndyHudds]

I don't know if it's reasonable - I was trying to find out what the proposed impovements might provide - hopefully better than this, but if not, there's not much point.



Why would you not catch the bus?

It's reliable and reasonably priced.

I think there's a fair few catch it to/from work, but at the moment that's basically only a couple of buses in each direction and no freedom to stay on after work for socialising if you want to get your bus home.

I haven't anything against buses I use them everyday, just that such a long journey of bus invariably ends up being uncomfortable. Train travel is far superior unless you're on a 142. I would always use a train over a bus, even with a change.

People have a dim view of bus travel, something which I do find strange myself, and stigmatise it as slow, uncomfortable and for the lower classes!! Modern bus travel is good but over long journeys it can be a pain, the train doesn't feel like that and people will always catch a train over a bus, unless price is an issue for you.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I haven't anything against buses I use them everyday, just that such a long journey of bus invariably ends up being uncomfortable. Train travel is far superior unless you're on a 142. I would always use a train over a bus, even with a change.

Common belief (of certain cynical beings) suggests that a Class 142 is exactly what will be used.

 

[RichmondCommu]

I would think that most unlikely!

Well at least they're going to back to the Top Flight, which is more than can be said for their neighbors!

 

[Harpers Tate]

People have a dim view of bus travel.....

It's true that many operators have good and modern fleets. However there appears (in my admittedly fairly limited experience) to be a tendency (and by that I don't mean anything like 100%) to provide routes that circle and double back on themselves in order to serve more places at the expense of schedule time.

The last time I made the trip from Skipton to Colne, the "Pennine" service I used did exactly this. In my local area, whereas at one time we had true express routes (that ran well loaded) at peak times - now we have only stoppers that take twice as long. And more than twice as long as the train.

And whilst schemes like PlusBus are to be applauded, there is no real integration in throught ticketing OR in scheduling. Especially when the interchange might occur at a rural location where PlusBus doesn't apply.

And then there are fares. Privately and off the record, it was suggested to me that bus operators intentionally have disproportionately high single fares (compared to day passes, seasons etc.) because it is upon these that the NTCS revenue level is based.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It's true that many operators have good and modern fleets. However there appears (in my admittedly fairly limited experience) to be a tendency (and by that I don't mean anything like 100%) to provide routes that circle and double back on themselves in order to serve more places at the expense of schedule time.

It is good to see that many of the new fleets are now of the more "green" variety with a noted reduction in exhaust emissions.

 

[Lankyline]

On BBC Breakfast this morning there was a 30sec piece with a spokesman for SELRAP (as part of the announcement of Network rail's £38m investment programme) who said that part of the plan includes freight traffic and the establish a new corridor for Liverpool to Hull ???!!!

The BBC reporter then went on to say the plan had been rejected to reinstate the line ! Two items stood out, What freight ? where from and going to where ? and whose rejected this, as the studies are apparantly still ongoing. Either the BBC have got it wrong (nothing would suprise me) or SELRAP actually have no case

 

[YorkshireBear]

I love it how he suggested it was crazy to not reopen the route. I am afraid it would be crazy to reopen the route.

 

[Lankyline]

I love it how he suggested it was crazy to not reopen the route. I am afraid it would be crazy to reopen the route.

I am more and more convinced SELRAP is simply just a good PR machine, style over substance !

 

[northwichcat]

The BBC reporter then went on to say the plan had been rejected to reinstate the line ! Two items stood out, What freight ? where from and going to where ? and whose rejected this, as the studies are apparantly still ongoing. Either the BBC have got it wrong (nothing would suprise me) or SELRAP actually have no case

There's a cost:benefit ratio that a new line has to meet before Network Rail will consider it. Meeting that cost:benefit ratio makes it 'financially viable' but doesn't mean Network Rail will include it in their plans.

 

[tbtc]

Has anyone looked at a map, and seen the "kink" you'd have to undertake to go from Liverpool to Hull via Skipton?

Still no news on this magical 6:1 benefit/cost ratio (when comparing all costs), not even confirmation on whether this is a humble "Stourbridge" solution or a fully fledged double track electrified line (that includes the cost of double tracking/electrifying all other tracks necessary to get from Burnley to Liverpool - whatever route that may take). You'd think that with this amazing business case, they'd be quick to trumpet it?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

There's a cost:benefit ratio that a new line has to meet before Network Rail will consider it. Meeting that cost:benefit ratio makes it 'financially viable' but doesn't mean Network Rail will include it in their plans.

We know that some schemes have been approved with weaker cases than some rejected schemes - I don't think there's any hard/fast rule when it comes to these things - political pressure may see some flimsier cases prioritiesed.

If the 6:1 ratio is correct then it'd be nuts not to build SELRAP...

...but if the 6:1 ratio is hogwash then it gets a little embarassing for the PR machine.

 

[Lankyline]

Has anyone looked at a map, and seen the "kink" you'd have to undertake to go from Liverpool to Hull via Skipton?

Still no news on this magical 6:1 benefit/cost ratio (when comparing all costs), not even confirmation on whether this is a humble "Stourbridge" solution or a fully fledged double track electrified line (that includes the cost of double tracking/electrifying all other tracks necessary to get from Burnley to Liverpool - whatever route that may take). You'd think that with this amazing business case, they'd be quick to trumpet it?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


We know that some schemes have been approved with weaker cases than some rejected schemes - I don't think there's any hard/fast rule when it comes to these things - political pressure may see some flimsier cases prioritiesed.

If the 6:1 ratio is correct then it'd be nuts not to build SELRAP...

...but if the 6:1 ratio is hogwash then it gets a little embarassing for the PR machine.

6:1 ratio was only mentioned in a newspaper article and never on SELRAP's website nor in their original studies, at the moment its hogwash !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

6:1 ratio was only mentioned in a newspaper article and never on SELRAP's website nor in their original studies, at the moment its hogwash !

Is it not time to ask SELRAP to issue a new statement that refutes what they feel are incorrect, but at the same time to fully issue any irrefutable evidence that can be given the backing of respected professional bodies, should they have all this information to hand, so their position can be fully evaluated and debated.

 

[northwichcat]

6:1 ratio was only mentioned in a newspaper article and never on SELRAP's website nor in their original studies, at the moment its hogwash !

So is there an independent consultant's report like this one for the Middlewich line: http://www.mcrua.org.uk/pdf-fix.php...gers---final-report--july-2009_1248946031.pdf anywhere?

 

[Lankyline]

So is there an independent consultant's report like this one for the Middlewich line: http://www.mcrua.org.uk/pdf-fix.php...gers---final-report--july-2009_1248946031.pdf anywhere?

In a word no, i appreciate that this report is based on an existing line but the level of detail currently published by SELRAP doesn't come close to this, there is another GRIP study to be made, but i get the impression that they are waiting for a more "favourable" set of factors to emerge to bolster their case. Maybe they should look at this.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Is it not time to ask SELRAP to issue a new statement that refutes what they feel are incorrect, but at the same time to fully issue any irrefutable evidence that can be given the backing of respected professional bodies, should they have all this information to hand, so their position can be fully evaluated and debated.

I don't believe Paul that they the necessary facts yet, despite the length of time spent on this project. The newspaper article, though incorrect about the 6:1 CBR does them no harm PR wise, but i can't see them issuing a correction anytime soon.

I wonder if the new GRIP report will finally answer your question and then we can all see if this is actually viable or just a complete waste of time !

 

[IanD]

6:1 ratio was only mentioned in a newspaper article and never on SELRAP's website nor in their original studies, at the moment its hogwash !

It's on their website now. Increased to 6.56:1.

Report on SELRAP AGM

Liaison officer Andy Shackleton spoke about the 1B study undertaken by ARUP and completed this February. That study has provided an updated analysis considering the social need for the link, the potential service, engineering options and has conducted a current economic appraisal of the scheme. The costs/benefits ratio (BCR) was found to be very promising and if the number of passengers is greater than calculated for every £1 spent there could be benefits worth £6. 56- i.e If the number of passengers increased by 30%. (passenger footfall has always been far greater than numbers estimated when recent railways have re-opened.) therefore benefits could be even higher than this.