(wait, nobody has suggested an Open Access service up the Settle & Carlisle? maybe reports of Bank Holiday drinking are exaggerated?)
it's awkward. Essentially you've got 54 driving cars (which would be hard/expensive if you wanted to make them into intermediates, so that can probably be ruled out) and 89 intermediates to work with.
Agreed.
I can see why the 222s are an appealing problem to "Crayonistas" - they are potentially going to be freed up (by electrification), they could potentially be formed into various different lengths,
on paper there are a lot of routes that these diesels could be used on.
Problem is that most of the suggestions you tend to get either involve scrapping lots of end carriages (people get upset about Virgin wasting a couple of cabs, but I've seen enthusiast suggestions that would waste significantly more 222 cabs!)...
...or a capacity reduction (given that a five coach 222 will probably have fewer seats than a four coach 158)...
...or trains that are far too long for intermediate platforms...
...or trains that are never going to get anywhere near 125mph (I think that longer distance Welsh services still see 75mph 150s from time to time, so presumably aren't seeing much running at 100mph?). Given the subsidies required for the Wales & Borders franchise, I really can't see them finding the money for "flagship" units like the 222s anyway.
I think we can forget the "eVoyager" / "Project Thor" ideas now - the units are already over ten years old (knocking on half way through their life before any "panto coach" is inserted - if it wasn't feasible to do it on 78(?) Voyagers a few years ago then I can't see the economics adding up for the sake of twentysomething 222s.
Five years ago I could have seen a future for 222s, but the options are narrowing - Scotland going for old HSTs, Cornwall getting new AT300s, Cardiff - Portsmouth getting high capacity five coach 165/166s mash ups, Transpennine getting electrified...
...so that the only three options I can see are:
1. Boring idea: Leave them where they are on the MML - it's not getting electrified any time soon, it's so far behind that it may even be an easy one for a new Government to cancel (compared to the "shovels on the ground" on other schemes).
2. Sensible idea: Give them to XC (for additional capacity and/or HST replacement). They aren't operational compatible with Voyagers, but then neither are HSTs/ Turbostars and XC seem to cope with three different classes. You could even try to restrict them to one corridor if you are that worried about units that can't work with each other, but I think that this is something that gets blown out of proportion as an argument against them.
3. Dafter idea: Give them to the next West Coast franchise as 110mph units for the remaining unelectrified services (Holyhead, Shrewbury, Wrexham?) to free up twenty (?) Voyagers for XC. Obvious drawbacks - West Coast won't need as many DMUs once they have more tilting EMUs to operate the remaining London - Birmingham - Scotland services, West Coast won't want non-tilting trains, West Coast will be able to run EMUs to Bolton/ Blackpool etc in a few years time...
I'm not saying that West Coast would be a great idea, but I really don't know what alternative there is (beyond the initial two suggestions above), and am partly suggesting it just to show how few other alternatives there really are.
A four coach 222 wouldn't be a capacity increase against a three coach 170 on routes like Birmingham - Stansted/ Nottingham - Cardiff, a five coach 222 wouldn't be a capacity increase against a four coach 158 on a route like Nottingham - Liverpool, a ten coach 222 wouldn't be a capacity increase against a nine coach 158/159 on Waterloo - Salisbury (plus the obvious drawbacks that these services see splitting at Nottingham and Salisbury).
We'll have a few space 170s from Scotland (plus a handful from the West Midlands) and 185s from Transpennine in the next five years... we'll be drowning in spare old HSTs (from East Coast, Great Western, East Midlands, Grand Central), the need for additional 125mph DMUs isn't a going to be a major problem.
I think that there's a good chance that there will still be 156s in daily service on the day that we start cutting up the first of the 222s - "bog standard go anywhere" units like 156s will always be in demand, but a small fleet of low capacity 125mph DMUs are harder to find a long term "home" for.
Forgetting the maintenance base, the options seem to be:
W&B (ATW) might be able to use 4/5-car trains but nothing more.
Most of its services run by 175s are too slow and local to merit 125mph-capable stock (and what would you do with the 175s?)
Agreed - the idea of replacing twenty seven oddball trains with twenty seven (longer faster) oddball trains makes sense on some levels, but it just pushes a problem further down the line.
The only possible way the numbers would "add up" would be if the twenty seven 175s moved to Greater Anglia to replace a similar number of DMUs there (since the GA 153/156/170s are "standard" at other TOCs, so could be easier absorbed into their fleets, unlike non-standard 175s), but that'd mean two coach 100mph DMUs on Sudbury - Marks Tey, so has a few drawbacks!
I can't pass up the opportunity to bang the drum for my idea here - CrossCountry seemingly are incredibly keen to have a second service per hour via Leeds across the whole day. I'd propose the Scotland and Newcastle serve Leeds, and the third service is to Hull via Doncaster. This wouldn't break any linakeges so long as the East Coast franchise holder operated an hourly service between Doncaster and York.
Replacing the current hourly Sheffield - Hull service with a Cross Country one has a lot of merit. Sure, Sheffield would lose it's direct service to the coast (the extensions to Bridlington/ Scarborough, but it'd give Hull a direct service to the East Midlands/ West Midlands which seems to be lacking (for all that I read on another thread about how much Hull "wants"/ "deserves" a direct service to Manchester Airport, I think that a link to places like Birmingham would be a bigger deal).
I don't think there's really a ''logical'' place for them to go because they're a heavy, fuel hungry 125mph DMU which offer poor space economy and a relatively low seating capacity for what they are
Agreed
I can't see why: The current twice hourly Intercity service over the Birmingham to Derby, Sheffield and York route seems to manage fine
I'd disagree - Cross Country are struggling on Birmingham to Yorkshire, with no light at the end of the tunnel until HS2 is built - we really need some capacity increase (whether that's a third path per hour or just longer trains on existing services).
I know most people on here beat the drum about how "overcrowded" their local route is, and I try not to fall into that trap on Sheffield services, but I think I need to make an exception for the XC trips!