Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[Crossover]

What did everyone think of the speech?

I was kind of only semi-listening to the drone, but it didn't really seem to say anything at all, other than stepping up enforcement and getting the army to backfill. Nice bit of gentle persuasion...

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Boris's hero, Winston Churchill, controversially sent troops into south Wales following the Tonypandy riots in 1910. Let's hope Boris doesn't feel tempted to follow his example

Ask Karen on Facebook if she’d like a Boris to behave like Churchill and she’d doubtless say ‘Oh Yes Yes Yes’

 

[trebor79]

I wonder if pub hours will ever be unrestricted again? The Police and local authorities notably don't like late opening. Could we end up with it back at 11pm permanently I wonder?

Possibly. Didn't the 11pm thing come in during the first world war, to prevent munitions workers getting too drunk and hungover?

 

[HSTEd]

On the plus side the relative weakeness of the restrictions will allow the wave to grow for another couple of weeks, which means we will at least obtain measurable progress towards getting out of this mess.

 

[Andyh82]

To me, these past 6 months of all this constant Coronavirus/COVID-19, the lockdown and all these horrible ongoing seemingly never-ending restrictions have lasted what FEELS like a LOT longer than 6 months. It's been incredibly draining for me, and I expect for millions of others. And the fact that we may well have to put up with this for yet another 6 LONG months is very depressing. Not sure I'll be able to take all this for too much longer.

Why does Boris envisage this could last another 6 months? What if we can get these cases and deaths back down to very low levels again way before 6 months time. Can these restrictions be finally lifted then?

I suppose anything less than 6 months would be the likes of January, which would be quite a foolhardy month to release measures

Last Saturday there was a protest meeting in Trafalgar Sq which turned quite ugly at the end, there is another one this Saturday I suspect more will be there - "Interesting Times"

People keep saying this, but no it won’t. The media will barely cover it, it’ll be latched onto by extreme nutters and any footage will be of old blokes with red faces for everyone to ridicule

On the ITV News Special immediately after Boris's speech, correspondent Emily Morgan mentioned that she had been talking to a GP who had said that over 40% of her patients in recent months had been making appointments about mental health issues as a result of all this - "people are worried about losing their job, the furlough scheme ending, they can't find a job, they can't pay their rent, they're lonely.". Just imagine what further effect this will have on the nation's mental health if all this drags on for another 6 months and with the possibility of even FAR tougher restrictions being brought in. Doesn't bear thinking about.

But then also in the studio was Robert Peston who was pretty much praising the tighter measures in Scotland and suggesting Boris hasn’t gone far enough.

Interesting they keep making the point that Wales never encouraged people back to work. I’m guessing Wales doesn’t have a lunchtime sandwich economy then, as we heard no end of how it was effected and how they need to encourage people back to work in England

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Absolutely amazed that masks were not required in taxis and private hire as soon as that applied to other public transport - the closed environment means near guaranteed spread if driver or passenger has it, unless there is a full height screen with no "money hole". Indeed I thought they were!

The regulations around face coverings have been full of anomalies, as I and many others have pointed out.
If the virus can spread easily indoors, when people are in close proximity, even for very short periods of time, then logically, shop workers should also have been required to wear them (unless exempt). The fact that to do so for an entire shift would be uncomfortable is irrelevant if ‘the growing body of evidence’ (where is that?) shows they reduce the risk of spread. It was absolutely nonsensical to not require everyone in that indoor space to wear one (unless exempt for the reasons given).

 

[Andyh82]

I would like to think everyone on this forum has been doing everything necessary to follow the rules. Tonight's 'threat' from the PM is directed at the minority of idiots who have no intentions of adhering to the restrictions.

If you’ve read many threads in this section over the last few weeks particularly the face masks one, I’m increasingly doubtful that that is actually entirely the case. Many here have boasted about how they would flat refuse to wear ‘muzzles’ and saying they would follow no recommendations or advice unless it was prescribed word for word in law

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’d rather not wear a mask in a taxi. Wearing a mask makes me dizzy

Sounds like "extreme distress" to me. Certainly I would be in extreme distress if I vomited in a mask.

So the answer is that you are exempt, don't wear one.

Possibly. Didn't the 11pm thing come in during the first world war, to prevent munitions workers getting too drunk and hungover?

Yes, correct.

 

[farleigh]

If you’ve read many threads in this section over the last few weeks particularly the face masks one, I’m increasingly doubtful that that is actually entirely the case. Many here have boasted about how they would flat refuse to wear ‘muzzles’ and saying they would follow no recommendations or advice unless it was prescribed word for word in law

Why would you object to people who are following the law to the letter?

Seems a very strange attitude.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

They've swapped. Alexander 'Boris' Johnson will be presenting Bakeoff on Channel 4, and Matt Lucas is satirising the latest Covid restrictions on BBC1.

The BBC in fact went one better and did something that surely cannot have been an accident.

At 20.00 we had the address to the nation, followed by a news analysis of it.

At 20.30 they broadcast "Would I lie to you?"





The picture is a screenshot of part of the BBC1 schedule for tonight showing, as proof, the details described above.

 

[hwl]

Possibly. Didn't the 11pm thing come in during the first world war, to prevent munitions workers getting too drunk and hungover?

Defence of Realm Acts (aka DORA) 1914 & 1915 especially the shorter Sunday hours till 1988.

 

[Jonny]

I was kind of only semi-listening to the drone, but it didn't really seem to say anything at all, other than stepping up enforcement and getting the army to backfill. Nice bit of gentle persuasion...

How much Army do we actually have? We have lost a lot of active troops over recent years and are down to just under 80,000 regulars with about 25,000 reserves (others may be subject to recall, but that is going to be very iffy based on lapsed skills, especially at short notice) and we are down to 100,000 frontline officers (120,000 total Constables including command/support) in the Police. There is something of a deficiency in the headcount department. Also, if things go ^down^, and troops are involved, the Army's hard-earned reputation would be at risk.

 

[Smidster]

I am trying to avoid the news as much as possible but see this and really not sure how to get through the next 6 months.

The whole point of the first set of restrictions in March was to give you time to work out what you were going to do and put in place your plan to allow you to live with this in a sustained way - so things like your track and trace system etc.

This shows that we have completely failed on that so it is yet more rules and restrictions, with likely more to come, and instead of finding ways to live with this our only solution seems to be to stay at home and hope it goes away without much regard for the wider damage that will do.

It has been fine to be working remotely during the summer - when you can go on long walks or enjoy lunch in the garden - but doing the same in winter is a horrible thought.

Another 6 months with nothing to look forward to, no opportunity to do the things that make life worth living or even just that little bit of social contact. What precisely are we existing for right now when all the joy of life is being sucked away?

 

[DelayRepay]

It has been fine to be working remotely during the summer - when you can go on long walks or enjoy lunch in the garden - but doing the same in winter is a horrible thought.

Another 6 months with nothing to look forward to, no opportunity to do the things that make life worth living or even just that little bit of social contact. What precisely are we existing for right now when all the joy of life is being sucked away?

Yes. Despite what I have said elsewhere, I am not sure how I will cope with another six months of this, minus the opportunity to at least go for a long walk in the evening or meet a few friends in a beer garden. I am at the point where I am seriously considering a change of job/career to do something that can't be done from home. I don't know what, and it would probably mean a pay cut, but that's how fed up I am of this.

Sadly, I honestly think there will be worse to come over the next month or so, as these new measures don't have the desired effect.

How much Army do we actually have? We have lost a lot of active troops over recent years and are down to just under 80,000 regulars with about 25,000 reserves (others may be subject to recall, but that is going to be very iffy based on lapsed skills, especially at short notice) and we are down to 100,000 frontline officers (120,000 total Constables including command/support) in the Police. There is something of a deficiency in the headcount department. Also, if things go ^down^, and troops are involved, the Army's hard-earned reputation would be at risk.

But also, during the initial response, the Army were supporting the NHS and wider efforts by helping to staff the Nightingale hospitals, organising logistics, running Covid test centres and lots of other things. In my area, soldiers were helping to staff ambulances for a while. If we do have a bad second wave, the Army might be needed to do all these things again. So can they do all of this, and assist the police, and do their day job of staying ready to defend the nation? And deal with anything else (e.g. winter floods) where their manpower and expertise might be called upon?

I'm not sure what roles the army could backfill either apart from replacing police officers guarding buildings. I think they would be incredibly reluctant to actually act as police officers, and the backfilling probably wouldn't free up that many officers.

So I am sure the Army will, once again, support the national effort, but I'm not sure there's a lot they'll be able to do to support the police directly.

I suppose we should just be glad they're not proposing to arm the covid marshals and give them the power to arrest on sight...

 

[yorksrob]

I'm hoping that the current restrictions are a forerunner to a more realistic Sweden type approach.

I fear that they are part of a softening up process for a more stingent lockdown when the winter weather inevitably causes cases to rise.

I genuinely don't know which of the above is true.

 

[C J Snarzell]

How much Army do we actually have? We have lost a lot of active troops over recent years and are down to just under 80,000 regulars with about 25,000 reserves (others may be subject to recall, but that is going to be very iffy based on lapsed skills, especially at short notice) and we are down to 100,000 frontline officers (120,000 total Constables including command/support) in the Police. There is something of a deficiency in the headcount department. Also, if things go ^down^, and troops are involved, the Army's hard-earned reputation would be at risk.

You can blame Theresa May & that other w****r Tom Winsor for the lack of police numbers. They butchered the police service back in 2012, and the numbers dropped to their lowest in 40 years. I believe the overall reduction was around 20,000 less police officers nationally.

Greater Manchester went from over 8,000 to around 6,200 between 2012 & 2016 when there was hardly any new recruits coming in.

As an ex-cop myself, the problem is that the police spend most of their time wiping the backsides of Social Services, Mental Health Services, Ambulance Service, to name but a few instead of focusing on real crime in our communities.

The lockdown flouters are yet another issue being thrown at an already 'over-stretched' and 'under-staffed' service, so maybe we do need the Army to step in and assist now. I'm sure the Army wouldn't pander around the social degenerates who give them a mouthful of abuse.

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

The lockdown flouters are yet another issue being thrown at an already 'over-stretched' and 'under-staffed' service, so maybe we do need the Army to step in and assist now. I'm sure the Army wouldn't pander around the social degenerates who give them a mouthful of abuse.

There would be civil unrest if the Army was put on the street to enforce COVID matters. This being the case, it won't be used in that way; it will backfill for other things so more Police are available for frontline policing. Bozza said that specifically in the evening talk.

 

[duncanp]

Thought I would share this article from the Telegraph which suggests that Coronavirus may not be growing quite so fast as Whitty, Vallance and Boris Johnson would have you believe.

It seems to me that the quoted figure of 50,000 cases per day is a worst case scenario, but Whitty and Vallance are trying to pretend that that is what is most likely to happen. In other words, they are trying to scare the population into complying with all their petty restrictions.

Given that there is on average a time lag of about 14 days in between infection and hospitalisation, it is interesting to compare the number of hospitalisations against those who tested positive 14 days ago.

There were 1878 people admitted to hospital on 15th April this year, which is 41.1% of the 4567 people who tested positive on 1st April. The average percentage figure for the second half of April was just of 34%.

There were 134 people admitted to hospital on 7th September this year, which is 15.7% of the 853 people who tested positive on 24th August. The average percentage figure for the last week in August and the first week in September is just under 12%.

Perhaps this is a slightly unscientific methodology and I am open to criticism, but it suggests to me that the severity of the disease (the "viral load" if you like) is less than it was in the spring. So we would need three times the number of cases now to get the same number of hospitalisations as we saw in the spring.

The government should be using the data to predict the number of expected hospitalisations, and then working out whether the NHS can cope.

Covid-19 cases 'could only be doubling every 20 days'

Lower estimate means Britain would see around 8,400 cases by October 13 – some 80 per cent fewer than 'doomsday scenario'

www.telegraph.co.uk

Coronavirus infections may only be doubling every 20 days, Boris Johnson has suggested, which would lead to 41,600 fewer cases than the Government's "doomsday" projection of 50,000 a day by October.
On Monday, Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, released a chart (see the graphic below) illustrating how cases could reach 50,000 by October 13 if they continued to double every seven days.

The graph was criticised by scientists who said it was wrong to show only the worst case scenario, particularly as steps had already been taken to mitigate such an eventuality.
Announcing new restrictions in Parliament on Tuesday, the Prime Minister appeared to agree that a lower estimate should be included and said cases were actually doubling "between seven and 20 days with the possibility of tens of thousands of new infections a month".
The lower estimate (illustrated in the graphic below) means Britain would see around 8,400 cases by October 13 – some 80 per cent fewer than shown in the graph.

The Government Office for Science said the graph was based on figures from Imperial College suggesting that the virus was doubling every seven to eight days between August 22 and September 7 and recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, the University of Oxford released research showing that, when the epidemic curve was measured by symptom onset date rather than test date, numbers were not rising as steeply.
The experts claimed data shown by the Government (watch Sir Patrick and Professor Chris Whitty's briefing about it in the video below) "hinders meaningful interpretation".

The Tory MP Simon Clarke, a former local government minister, said: "This goes to show the vital importance of continuing to interrogate the forecasts and emphasises the need for complete transparency when it comes to the basis on which predictions are being made.
"We all appreciate the difficulty involved in making projections of this nature. The stakes are so high that Parliament and the country must be given the fullest possible information about the state of play."
Writing for The Telegraph, Professor John Ashton, a former president of the Faculty of Public Health, said it was time to form an independent public health body that was free of political influence to produce the data.
"While it might well come to pass, the graph created confusion rather than scientific clarity," he said. "Public health policy should be removed from the Government and handed it to a professional body, with a non-ministerial Government department reporting to Parliament – like the ONS and Office for Budget Responsibility."
Bim Afolami, another Conservative MP, added: "They [the scientists] are doing a really tough job, and nobody envies them – but, going forward, a fuller range of possibilities and potential outcomes should be presented to the public and MPs."

 

[Bletchleyite]

If it's doubling on any timescale it's a problem given that there is no exit strategy, though.

 

[birchesgreen]

Interesting they keep making the point that Wales never encouraged people back to work. I’m guessing Wales doesn’t have a lunchtime sandwich economy then, as we heard no end of how it was effected and how they need to encourage people back to work in England

I did hear an amazing statistic (though like many "stats" its truthfulness may be questionable) once that there were more Prets on Borough High Street in London than the whole of Wales.

 

[thejuggler]

Just listened briefly to Radio 4 and I wonder how these scientists get to such a high position as SAGE.

One of his opening statements. "Closing restaurants at 10pm won't affect them as no one goes for a meal at 10pm."

Does he not know that 10pm is when everyone has to be out and the doors locked? Thousands of people go for a booking at 8.30 or 9pm. If you run a restaurant which has already had to reduce numbers you will now be finding it very difficult to turn the table during an evening.

Who expects to have a relaxing three/four course meal in an hour?! Ask a restauranteur if they can cover their operating costs with 50% (max) of their usual capacity.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Who expects to have a relaxing three/four course meal in an hour?! Ask a restauranteur if they can cover their operating costs with 50% (max) of their usual capacity.

The answer to this is actually the total opposite of "eat out to help out" - they need to put their prices up, and we need to accept that they need to do that and pay those prices. With reduced capacity we won't go out for a meal as often anyway, so our spending on going out for a meal would remain at a similar level.

 

[DelayRepay]

Perhaps this is a slightly unscientific methodology and I am open to criticism

Ok, here are my thoughts. Again not scientific and open to criticism too

There were 1878 people admitted to hospital on 15th April this year, which is 41.1% of the 4567 people who tested positive on 1st April. The average percentage figure for the second half of April was just of 34%.

In April there was very limited testing of the general public. Testing was concentrated on hospital admissions and NHS workers. So it is likely that in April, someone showing Covid symptoms would not be tested until the point that those symptoms were serious enough to need hospital admission. This causes two issues:
1) The 14 day lag isn't valid in April, as it is unlikely the people being admitted to hospital had been tested during the 14 days previously
2) Calculating hospital admissions as a percentage of all positive tests is invalid, since the positive tests were heavily influenced by those being admitted to hospital (directly through testing of admissions and indirectly through testing of hospital staff).

I'm not saying the conclusion (a smaller percentage of people who contract Covid today will end up in hospital, compared to April) is wrong but I don't think the methodology supports this argument. I also don't think that it's because the severity of the virus its self has changed, but because we know more about how to protect ourselves and in particular those who are vulnerable will be taking even more precautions. So a lower percentage of people contracting the virus end up in hospital because a lower number of people who are vulnerable and therefore more likely to need hospital care are contracting the virus in the first place.

 

[brick60000]

That is almost certainly the plan. The Oxford vaccine is having problems but it looks like at worst it will be sufficiently safe for emergency use only. US law requires an absolute minimum of 30,000 trial vaccinations before an emergency license can be granted. The trial is approaching that number which is why Trump is talking about October (pressumably very late October). Once the US government grant an emergency licence then our government will follow. An emergency license would likely only cover health and social care workers and the extremely clinically vulnerable e.g. care home residents, people with very severe conditions and probably the very elderly (e.g. 85+). That would leave healthy pensioners and those with less severe heart and lung problems to protect with a fully licenced vaccine (which may or may not be Oxford vaccine). Our most at risk citizens should be vaccinated by the end of the 6 months which combined with higher immunity from infection should be enough to return to this summers restrictions in March or April next year.

The thought of going back to how things were in summer next March, rather than far more normal, is absolutely mind numbing.

I am trying to avoid the news as much as possible but see this and really not sure how to get through the next 6 months.

The whole point of the first set of restrictions in March was to give you time to work out what you were going to do and put in place your plan to allow you to live with this in a sustained way - so things like your track and trace system etc.

This shows that we have completely failed on that so it is yet more rules and restrictions, with likely more to come, and instead of finding ways to live with this our only solution seems to be to stay at home and hope it goes away without much regard for the wider damage that will do.

It has been fine to be working remotely during the summer - when you can go on long walks or enjoy lunch in the garden - but doing the same in winter is a horrible thought.

Another 6 months with nothing to look forward to, no opportunity to do the things that make life worth living or even just that little bit of social contact. What precisely are we existing for right now when all the joy of life is being sucked away?

Absolutely. I’ve spent the last six months working from home as a placement student, working as a key worker from my student bedroom. The only thing that kept me sane was being able to go for a walk in the sun and get some fresh air.

the thought of not leaving the building on days when I am still working, waking up in the dark and going to bed in the dark, with any daylight having passed whilst working is not a pleasant one.

 

[island]

Many 'provincial' taxis are just ordinary cars though. I expect it is considered too complicated a message to start having exceptions regarding the design of taxis.

“Passengers must wear a face covering in a taxi unless they are exempt or a fixed partition is in place separating passengers from the driver”. Simple enough?

[for the avoidance of doubt this is a theoretical form of words that could have been used and not a reflection of the law]

 

[Bantamzen]

“Passengers must wear a face covering in a taxi unless they are exempt or a fixed partition is in place separating passengers from the driver”. Simple enough?

[for the avoidance of doubt this is a theoretical form of words that could have been used and not a reflection of the law]

All the private hire taxis in our area have clear plastic divers installed for a while.

Car Partition Screen | Driver Bubble™ Flex | Driver Bubble™

Our first and most flexible car partition screen, manufactured from PVC for maximum compatibility and coverage. Shop easy and quick via our online store

driverbubble.com

 

[Howardh]

To me, the issue is if cases fall, they will say the restrictions are working and they will continue indefinitely, and if cases don't fall the restrictions will continue indefinitely.

If death figures don't rise within a month, and we're still locked down, I shall be going on my first ever protest march.

 

[trebor79]

I'm hoping that the current restrictions are a forerunner to a more realistic Sweden type approach.

I fear that they are part of a softening up process for a more stingent lockdown when the winter weather inevitably causes cases to rise.

I genuinely don't know which of the above is true.

I suspect that nobody within government does either.
I know I bang on about Sweden, but Germany is also far more back to normal and not seeing this "surge" in cases? What are they doing differently and how can we learn from them?
We seem locked into a cycle of zero leadership until Boris feels pressured to make up some new rules which he picks out of the policy tombola.

 

[Tomp94]

To me, the issue is if cases fall, they will say the restrictions are working and they will continue indefinitely, and if cases don't fall the restrictions will continue indefinitely.

If death figures don't rise within a month, and we're still locked down, I shall be going on my first ever protest march.

When it comes to the deaths, we need to look at:

How many are dying in hospitals
how many are dying in hospitals having come from a care home
how many are dying in care homes
And their ages, and pre existing medical conditions.
At the moment, all deaths are lumped together and we're given one total.

And as we now know, if you test positive for covid then die witin 28 days, you'll be included in the covid death stats, even if you end up dying of something totally unrelated from covid, eg a car crash or cancer.


Healthy people don't live in care homes either, so with all due respect to the people who live in care homes, they can't cope in society without being there.

We need honesty and transparency from the government on this.

 

[duncanp]

When it comes to the deaths, we need to look at:

How many are dying in hospitals
how many are dying in hospitals having come from a care home
how many are dying in care homes
And their ages, and pre existing medical conditions.
At the moment, all deaths are lumped together and we're given one total.

And as we now know, if you test positive for covid then die witin 28 days, you'll be included in the covid death stats, even if you end up dying of something totally unrelated from covid, eg a car crash or cancer.


Healthy people don't live in care homes either, so with all due respect to the people who live in care homes, they can't cope in society without being there.

We need honesty and transparency from the government on this.

The death figures should be revised so that they only show people who die within 28 days of testing positive, and where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death, or where it is a contributing factor. This would need to be decided by a doctor in each case.

I wonder what difference this would make.