Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[Bletchleyite]

The death figures should be revised so that they only show people who die within 28 days of testing positive, and where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death, or where it is a contributing factor. This would need to be decided by a doctor in each case.

I wonder what difference this would make.

It would mean a considerable lag on the figures, which is probably why it isn't done. If you were going to count COVID as the primary cause you wouldn't need the 28 day thing.

I believe there is a weekly PHE figure based on that.

 

[Domh245]

The death figures should be revised so that they only show people who die within 28 days of testing positive, and where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death, or where it is a contributing factor. This would need to be decided by a doctor in each case.

I wonder what difference this would make.

You mean, like the ONS death statistics?

It means that during April PHE were massively underreporting deaths, but now are more or less consistent

 

[Tomp94]

The death figures should be revised so that they only show people who die within 28 days of testing positive, and where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death, or where it is a contributing factor. This would need to be decided by a doctor in each case.

I wonder what difference this would make.

Agreed. If they did this, the death tolls would look much, much different.
I had a look on the NHS spreadsheet the other day for hospital deaths in England, only around 30 died from or of Covid aged 50 or under since the first week of June. Is this worth breaking the economy and putting untold misery on the entire country, I think not.

 

[al78]

When it comes to the deaths, we need to look at:

How many are dying in hospitals
how many are dying in hospitals having come from a care home
how many are dying in care homes
And their ages, and pre existing medical conditions.
At the moment, all deaths are lumped together and we're given one total.

And as we now know, if you test positive for covid then die witin 28 days, you'll be included in the covid death stats, even if you end up dying of something totally unrelated from covid, eg a car crash or cancer.


Healthy people don't live in care homes either, so with all due respect to the people who live in care homes, they can't cope in society without being there.

We need honesty and transparency from the government on this.

This is a very good point. The media appear to be very deceitful with the figures. They throw out COVID cases over the year showing the recent rise up to not far below what it was at peak, to make you think OMG we're going back into another wave, but what they don't show is how the hospitalisations and deaths compare to the Spring peak. From the little I've seen, the hospitalisations and deaths are way way down on Spring, so if the NHS wasn't overwhelmed back then, is it really in danger of being overwhelmed over the winter, even if hospitalisations increase many times? The whole idea of severe restrictions is to stop the health service being overwhelmed, but with improved knowledge of the virus and treatments, that risk seems to have crashed. I can kind of see the point that some younger people have caught it and had long term serious complications, but again, what percentage of COVID cases does that represent? As you say, we need ALL the facts and evidence, not the cherry picked variety to give the illusion that the worst case scenario is upon us.

In addition, I find the demonisation of young people very poor. Young people are getting hit hardest by these restrictions and they are also being blamed for spreading the virus. If you want to start generational conflict you couldn't devise a better strategy. Unfortunately you have some of the I lived through the war brigade who claim that because they had to make sacrifices during the post war years and they lived through it and managed just fine, young people should be able to manage perfectly well with the current restrictions.

 

[MikeWM]

I didn't watch last night as I bought a new TV recently and don't really want to end up smashing it.

But I see he said tripe like this

We have to acknowledge this this is a great and freedom-loving country; and while the vast majority have complied with the rules there have been too many breaches – too many opportunities for our invisible enemy to slip through undetected.

In other words : it is your fault, and time to stop being so free.

I know I've made this analogy before, but the connection between the way the government is treating us, and the way in an abusive relationship the abuser treats their victim, is becoming ever more clear.

- Isolation. You're cut off from family and friends and work colleagues.
- Punishment. You can't do the things you like, or they are subject to so many rules that they're not enjoyable anymore.
- Blame. You are constantly told that it is your fault you're not allowed to do this any more. And if only you followed the rules, you'd be able to do so again.
- Confusion. The rules to follow are arbitrary, frequently change, make little sense.
- Humiliation. You're forced to do degrading things just because you're told you must.
- Self-worth. You're told you're a bad person, nasty, dangerous, unclean.
- Tracking. Everything you do is tracked and logged.

It is obvious, disturbing, and we need to stop accepting it.

 

[Scrotnig]

I didn't watch last night as I bought a new TV recently and don't really want to end up smashing it.

But I see he said tripe like this



In other words : it is your fault, and time to stop being so free.

I know I've made this analogy before, but the connection between the way the government is treating us, and the way in an abusive relationship the abuser treats their victim, is becoming ever more clear.

- Isolation. You're cut off from family and friends and work colleagues.
- Punishment. You can't do the things you like, or they are subject to so many rules that they're not enjoyable anymore.
- Blame. You are constantly told that it is your fault you're not allowed to do this any more. And if only you followed the rules, you'd be able to do so again.
- Confusion. The rules to follow are arbitrary, frequently change, make little sense.
- Humiliation. You're forced to do degrading things just because you're told you must.
- Self-worth. You're told you're a bad person, nasty, dangerous, unclean.
- Tracking. Everything you do is tracked and logged.

It is obvious, disturbing, and we need to stop accepting it.

I totally agree. However it's clear the government still have overwhelming public support for whatever measures they fancy taking.

I reckon within 7 to 10 days they will be announcing a return to what we had on March 23rd - "stay at home" etc, businesses closed and all that nonsense.

I refuse to be imprisoned in my own house. My duty of care to family usurps any duty to arbitrary state house arrest.

 

[ainsworth74]

Have to say I've pretty much given up on specific death figures and have been looking at the excess death charts. It might not be best for isolating what are Covid deaths but at least it will show whether deaths are rising above the average level over the last five years which itself can therefore indicate whether things are getting worse or not.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The death figures should be revised so that they only show people who die within 28 days of testing positive, and where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death, or where it is a contributing factor. This would need to be decided by a doctor in each case.

I wonder what difference this would make.

I also wonder why the regulations brought in after the Shipman case, requiring two doctors to sign off cause of death, which were suspended under emergency powers, have not been reinstated?
The reason for suspension was to expedite matters if the body count threatened to overwhelm the NHS. This didn’t happen and now there is nothing reported about this safeguard being restored???

 

[Scrotnig]

I also wonder why the regulations brought in after the Shipman case, requiring two doctors to sign off cause of death, which were suspended under emergency powers, have not been reinstated?
The reason for suspension was to expedite matters if the body count threatened to overwhelm the NHS. This didn’t happen and now there is nothing reported about this safeguard being restored???

And also the suspension of the requirement for two doctors to sign off on sectioning people. It now only needs one.

This was all due to expire by the end of the month. As predicted it appears to be being quietly made indefinite.

 

[duncanp]

I have seen the reports where Sir Patrick Vallance says that cases in the UK are doubling every 7 - 8 days.

Well there were 4926 cases reported yesterday (22nd Sept) and half of this figure is 2463.

This almost exactly matches the 2460 cases reported on September 8th which was 14 days ago.

So from what I can see cases are currently doubling every 14 days, or am I missing something?

Does anyone think we are being lied to in order to scare us into compliance with the measures announced, when the government and the scientists know full well that the increase in cases is not as bad as they make out.

 

[trebor79]

Does anyone think we are being lied to in order to scare us into compliance with the measures announced, when the government and the scientists know full well that the increase in cases is not as bad as they make out.

Yes.
And my response to rising infections remains as it was several weeks ago - "so what?".
Any measures will have a temporary effect at best. The lockdown was a very expensive way of buying time to put on place things to help and protect the vulnerable. Government completely failed to do that, so all that cost has been squandered.
Sorry, but I'm out and will not be complying with any further lockdown. If government isn't going to don its bit and do something constructive, I'm not going to do my bit, as it's all pointless.

 

[Yew]

Yes.
And my response to rising infections remains as it was several weeks ago - "so what?".
Any measures will have a temporary effect at best. The lockdown was a very expensive way of buying time to put on place things to help and protect the vulnerable. Government completely failed to do that, so all that cost has been squandered.
Sorry, but I'm out and will not be complying with any further lockdown. If government isn't going to don its bit and do something constructive, I'm not going to do my bit, as it's all pointless.

I think @Bletchleyite had some good responses to this on another thread, some of this is due to tests not being available, and we should probably start taking more consideration of Surveillence testing reports.

 

[Ianigsy]

The figure I'd like to see is how many of the people who were originally considered vulnerable because of other medical conditions have now succumbed to those conditions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does anyone think we are being lied to in order to scare us into compliance with the measures announced, when the government and the scientists know full well that the increase in cases is not as bad as they make out.

No. As I've already mentioned, the doubling is coming from the surveillance testing, and the normal figures are "capped out" by unavailability of tests.

 

[DB]

The figure I'd like to see is how many of the people who were originally considered vulnerable because of other medical conditions have now succumbed to those conditions.

Indeed. It's also worth pointing out that with the average spell in a care home being something like 14 months, somewhere around half of care home residents (probably a bit less in reality) would have died since March anyway. Not sure what the average time in a hospice is, but I would assume it's going to be a single-figure number of months.

 

[trebor79]

The figure I'd like to see is how many of the people who were originally considered vulnerable because of other medical conditions have now succumbed to those conditions.

Indeed. It's also worth pointing out that with the average spell in a care home being something like 14 months, somewhere around half of care home residents (probably a bit less in reality) would have died since March anyway. Not sure what the average time in a hospice is, but I would assume it's going to be a single-figure number of months.

It's not just care homes and sick people though. 2.5m were advised to shield. My mother was one of them. She is healthy and lives a normal life. She has had 2 treatments for lymphoma, the last being a stem cell treatment which has resulted in remission but left her with a weakened immune system.
There's no particular reason she couldn't live for another 10 or 15 years, but she will always be more vulnerable than most people to infections.

That said, she doesn't want to live like a hermit and would far rather we lived normal lives and took our chances. Her and my father do not fear death, and we are all reconciled to each others and our own mortality.

 

[DB]

It's not just care homes and sick people though. 2.5m were advised to shield. My mother was one of them. She is healthy and lives a normal life. She has had 2 treatments for lymphoma, the last being a stem cell treatment which has resulted in remission but left her with a weakened immune system.
There's no particular reason she couldn't live for another 10 or 15 years, but she will always be more vulnerable than most people to infections.

Now that more is known about this virus those particularly at risk can be idenfitied more specifically - and it would be sensible to put procedures in place so that such people can stay at home (if they wish) without loss of income, and with suitable support processes in place where needed (for deliveries, etc). This is what the government should have been doing over the summer, but didn't.

 

[thejuggler]

I have seen the reports where Sir Patrick Vallance says that cases in the UK are doubling every 7 - 8 days.

Well there were 4926 cases reported yesterday (22nd Sept) and half of this figure is 2463.

This almost exactly matches the 2460 cases reported on September 8th which was 14 days ago.

So from what I can see cases are currently doubling every 14 days, or am I missing something?

Does anyone think we are being lied to in order to scare us into compliance with the measures announced, when the government and the scientists know full well that the increase in cases is not as bad as they make out.

Taking individual dates doesn't give a good picture as you can find almost 50% of 4926 more recent than 8 September. On 14 September it was 2,600.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Yes.
And my response to rising infections remains as it was several weeks ago - "so what?".
Any measures will have a temporary effect at best. The lockdown was a very expensive way of buying time to put on place things to help and protect the vulnerable. Government completely failed to do that, so all that cost has been squandered.
Sorry, but I'm out and will not be complying with any further lockdown. If government isn't going to don its bit and do something constructive, I'm not going to do my bit, as it's all pointless.

You have my 100% support. This madness has gone way too far.
I will be attending the demo in Trafalgar Square on Saturday. Not because I support the anti-vaxxers, but it’s now imperative that all that oppose this lunacy SHOW their disquiet, in huge numbers.
Poll tax was not defeated by quiet acquiescence

 

[Darandio]

This is what the government should have been doing over the summer, but didn't.

They've done squat.

Let's assume hospital admissions do rise again to levels something like back in March through April, i'm willing to bet money the same PPE issues exist as before because no provision has been made for it.

Poll tax was not defeated by quiet acquiescence

Defeated? It lives on as far as i'm concerned in the equally unfair Council Tax.

 

[johntea]

Casinos, Pubs/Bars, Restaurants, Cinemas, Bowling Alleys, tourism attractions and gaming arcades.

A lot more than just pubs and restaurants closing at 10pm there!

 

[Mag_seven]

Now that more is known about this virus those particularly at risk can be idenfitied more specifically - and it would be sensible to put procedures in place so that such people can stay at home (if they wish) without loss of income, and with suitable support processes in place where needed (for deliveries, etc). This is what the government should have been doing over the summer, but didn't.

Agreed 100% but they can't pursue such a strategy now as they have been backed into a corner by overcautious advisors and the terrified brigade on social media.

 

[Journeyman]

COVID-19 is clearly causing lots of problems. It's high time COVID-20 was released. I hope it has lots of bug fixes.

I'll get me coat.

 

[MikeWM]

Casinos, Pubs/Bars, Restaurants, Cinemas, Bowling Alleys, tourism attractions and gaming arcades.

A lot more than just pubs and restaurants closing at 10pm there!

As I pointed out yesterday when this was being mooted, including cinemas makes even less sense than the others.

The fact they will no longer be able to schedule two evening shows for an average-length film may well be the death knell for many

Also, only being able to fit in one evening show rather than two will presumably make the one showing busier, which rather defeats the point.

 

[DB]

As I pointed out yesterday when this was being mooted, including cinemas makes even less sense than the others.

The fact they will no longer be able to schedule two evening shows for an average-length film may well be the death knell for many

Also, only being able to fit in one evening show rather than two will presumably make the one showing busier, which rather defeats the point.

As with all government knee-jerk reactions, it's clearly not been thought through.

 

[BJames]

As I pointed out yesterday when this was being mooted, including cinemas makes even less sense than the others.

The fact they will no longer be able to schedule two evening shows for an average-length film may well be the death knell for many

Also, only being able to fit in one evening show rather than two will presumably make the one showing busier, which rather defeats the point.

According to Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden here, cinemas and theatres are exempt from the 10pm closing time..?

Yet more contradictions if it's being reported elsewhere that this isn't the case.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I pointed out yesterday when this was being mooted, including cinemas makes even less sense than the others.

The fact they will no longer be able to schedule two evening shows for an average-length film may well be the death knell for many

Also, only being able to fit in one evening show rather than two will presumably make the one showing busier, which rather defeats the point.

Hardly anyone is going to the cinema at the moment anyway, and so cinemas are generally choosing earlier closing times so their staff can be on shorter shifts and so paid less. So the effect there will be negligible.

 

[MikeWM]

According to Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden here, cinemas and theatres are exempt from the 10pm closing time..?

Yet more contradictions if it's being reported elsewhere that this isn't the case.

Guess we'll have to wait and see what the law says then, which no doubt will appear around 11pm tonight.

Cinemas *were* included in the 'local lockdowns' that had 10pm curfews. Hopefully they've had a rare outbreak of common sense, but I'm not holding my breath.

Hardly anyone is going to the cinema at the moment anyway, and so cinemas are generally choosing earlier closing times so their staff can be on shorter shifts and so paid less. So the effect there will be negligible.

Agreed that not many people are going (though Tenet did better than I think most people expected, and not much else of consequence has actually been released yet). My local cinemas started with 'last shows' rather earlier than usual, but they've reverted as time has gone on to showings at similar times as before. On a quick look, there's quite a few showings tonight that won't finish until about 11.

 

[ainsworth74]

It lives on as far as i'm concerned in the equally unfair Council Tax.

The band into which you property will be placed is based on the value of your property in April 1991. Oh your house didn't exist in 1991? Well we shall just guess what it would have been worth and then proceed accordingly.

The foundation of a completely sane policy for sure...

 

[Bletchleyite]

The band into which you property will be placed is based on the value of your property in April 1991. Oh your house didn't exist in 1991? Well we shall just guess what it would have been worth and then proceed accordingly.

The foundation of a completely sane policy for sure...

It's a slightly quirky way of doing it, but in reality is just a simpler way of doing percentiles of property values.