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Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

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peters

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Which report and what scientific evidence does it give for these statements? After 8 months of all of this I'm somewhat sceptical of scientific reports.

SAGE said (pre-Christmas announcement) for every day of relaxed restrictions there would need to be tightened for 2 days and other scientific bodies were saying up to 4 days for one day of relaxed restrictions. The PM didn't present the evidence they used for deciding on Christmas.

I don't think the reports are the issue, it's when the media try to make headlines from them which means we often hear about the best or worst case scenario mentioned, not all the scenarios mentioned.

It also doesn't help that the BBC keep getting that mad American professor from Edinburgh University - Devi Sridhar - on to talk about COVID. Yes we know what's worked in Singapore and New Zealand but that doesn't mean it's the right approach for the UK. If she was PM we'd probably have all imports and exports stopped because she's convinced our COVID rate is so bad because we still allow people in and out of the country.
 
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duncanp

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This all gets more and more crazy by the day.

Will pubs in Tier 2 be expected to police how long people take to finish their meal, or will there be a limit of 1 alcoholic drink per course?

Or will there be a legally defined limit on how long you can spend eating your meal and how much you can have to drink, depending on what you are having, such as:-
  • a burger - 15 minutes - half a pint of beer
  • small plate of fish and chips - 20 minutes - bottle of beer no larger than 330ml
  • large mixed grill - 30 minutes - 1 pint of beer

I can see lots of pubs being creative and pretending that there are delays in the kitchen, so that people can have another round of drinks whilst "..waiting for their next course..."
 

DB

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It also doesn't help that the BBC keep getting that mad American professor from Edinburgh University - Devi Sridhar - on to talk about COVID. Yes we know what's worked in Singapore and New Zealand but that doesn't mean it's the right approach for the UK. If she was PM we'd probably have all imports and exports stopped because she's convinced our COVID rate is so bad because we still allow people in and out of the country.

But it hasn't really worked in SIngaport and New Zealand - they've just backed themselves into a corner in a different way, and unless a vaccine appears which stops it spreding are going to have the problems when they get rid of their current quarantine rules (and they can't keep them indefinitely as it's economically ruinous).
 

greyman42

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Exactly, couldn't agree more.

And the fun police are making it quite clear that, in Tier 2 (England) there will be no hanging round after finishing your meal for a sneaky extra pint or two.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-oxford-vaccine-testing/#update-20201127-1413
I suspect lots of people will try and get round this by ordering an extra pint whilst there is still one chip left on their plate, because then they haven't "finished their meal".
What if people take 6 hours to finish their food? Is there a time limit?
 

trebor79

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But it hasn't really worked in SIngaport and New Zealand - they've just backed themselves into a corner in a different way, and unless a vaccine appears which stops it spreding are going to have the problems when they get rid of their current quarantine rules (and they can't keep them indefinitely as it's economically ruinous).
Some friends of mine are escaping the current madness by going to New Zealand tomorrow (he's a Kiwi, and his wife had to apply for the New Zealand government for permission to apply for a special visitor permit - yes you read that right, apply for permission to apply!). They then spend 2 weeks in quarantine - locked in a hotel room with 30 minutes a day of "organised fun". But their reward is a few months without all of the BS we have here.
Nobody has shown the slightest bit of interest, but if asked at the airport it's a "work trip", though to be fair pre-COVID he went 4 times a year for work purposes anyway and does have a team out there.

I'm immensely jealous of them, but he also made the point that "Cindy is rapidly running out of other people's money to spend and it's not a sustainable position".
 

kez19

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I thought we'd established that the best conditions for the virus to survive were cold temperature and low humidity. Which, if you open your windows in the winter, is exactly the condition your house will end up in.

But there we go again - we're trying to apply logic to things that don't make any sense.

Either that or its just basic bull crap! It be better if they just stuck to a script and ran with it? I thought reality shows as Big Brother were at least better staged managed than this! (Channel 4 era than 5 era I mean) lol

What if people take 6 hours to finish their food? Is there a time limit?


Probably they are looking the American way.... Dine and Dash?


When you leave a restaurant without paying; The most asshole thing you can do to a waiter/waitress
Waitress/Waiter: "Excuse me manager Bob, I just had a dine and dash on table 16. I walked away for a second to refill their drink and when I came back they were gone."

Manager Bob: "Well Suzie, I'm going to have to fire you, unless you can pay for their tab."

Waitress/Waiter: "Well ****, that sucks."

(excuse the swearing)...
 

317 forever

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A subsequent report claimed we need tighter restrictions before and after Christmas if we want restrictions to be dropped for a few days.
I therefore reckon that there will be no change to current restrictions before Christmas. Maybe a set of looser restrictions from December 28th will be announced just before Christmas.
 

duncanp

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And just when you wondered what had happened to it, here is today's SAGE scare story.

Honestly they are like Private Fraser from Dad's Army - "...we're all doomed..."


The relaxation of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas will increase infections "potentially by a large amount", the government's scientific advisers have warned.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the prevalence of COVID-19 "could easily double" over the festive period with "substantial mixing" of people.

The warning comes in a document called "notes on festive period", which was written more than a week ago but published for the first time on Friday.

Live COVID-19 updates from the UK and around the world

"Any relaxation over (the) festive period will result in increased transmission and increased prevalence, potentially by a large amount," the paper says.

"A parallel can be drawn, albeit on a different scale, between the return of students in autumn and people from different households mixing intensively over Christmas."


SAGE says that "substantial mixing of people over a short period of time, especially those who do not make contact regularly during a month represents a significant risk for wide-spread transmission".

"The prevalence could easily double during a few days of festive season," it adds.

The experts say there could be further increases as newly-infected people "go back to their 'routine' networks".

Coronavirus rules will be relaxed over the festive season across the UK with people allowed to celebrate in three-household "Christmas bubbles" with their families.

Between 23 and 27 December, people will be able to meet with two other households to form one Christmas bubble - but only in a private home, a place of worship or public outdoor spaces.

In its document, SAGE says that "bubbles of households may be better than limiting contacts to a specific number", but adds that "faithfulness to bubbles is paramount".

The scientists advise that "families should be encouraged to gather in places where the smallest number of people have to share bedrooms, and there is a larger number of bathrooms".

They also say that the "division of labour for cleaning bathrooms" is "potentially important", and more vulnerable people should not be left with a house to clean.

In an interview with Sky News earlier, cabinet minister Robert Jenrick acknowledged a relaxation of restrictions over Christmas will likely "drive some higher rate of infection".
 

bramling

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And just when you wondered what had happened to it, here is today's SAGE scare story.

Honestly they are like Private Fraser from Dad's Army - "...we're all doomed..."


The politicians need to get a hold of this and decide what's supposed to happen over Christmas. This fudge is completely unacceptable, as is any notion that we're subject to being threatened with a January lockdown if there's any loosening over Christmas.

I still don't get why we're even having this current lockdown when my area is going to a worse tier after it.
 

duncanp

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The politicians need to get a hold of this and decide what's supposed to happen over Christmas. This fudge is completely unacceptable, as is any notion that we're subject to being threatened with a January lockdown if there's any loosening over Christmas.

I still don't get why we're even having this current lockdown when my area is going to a worse tier after it.

The sensible thing would be for people who do mix households over Christmas to voluntarily self isolate for a week or two before and/or afterwards, as much as possible.

This would entail leaving your home as little as possible, and having contact with as few people as possible, taking account of your work, family and other committments.

This would mitigate against any increased risk posed by separate households mixing.

But since when did common sense come into the equation with regard to COVID-19?
 

ChrisC

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Over the last few weeks, since Nottingham had the highest Covid infection levels in the country, I have been looking at a daily updated map on a website called Covidlive. It’s actually covidlive.co.uk but I don’t know how to include a link in my post. Since that time levels in Nottinghamshire and the City of Nottingham have been falling quite significantly. The map has all areas colour coded in shades of blue with the darker blue being the worst infected areas. The areas shaded in the darker blue are as expected mainly those areas that are now in Tier 3 including large parts of Yorkshire, Manchester and Lancashire, South Wales, the North East etc. However, I notice that today Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have moved to a lighter blue as infection levels are now more in line with areas of the country that are in Tier 2. Sadly I have my doubts whether this will have any influence when levels are reviewed on 16th December. Incidentally areas of East London around Redbridge and Havering are shaded dark blue with levels rising but have been put in Tier 2.
 

bramling

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The sensible thing would be for people who do mix households over Christmas to voluntarily self isolate for a week or two before and/or afterwards, as much as possible.

This would entail leaving your home as little as possible, and having contact with as few people as possible, taking account of your work, family and other committments.

This would mitigate against any increased risk posed by separate households mixing.

But since when did common sense come into the equation with regard to COVID-19?

Must admit I'd have been tempted to look just cancelling the whole thing and making it two normal working weeks, perhaps with some compensatory bank holidays in the future. This whole thing looks to be causing too much trouble, and it's obvious they're going to be cowed into another "lockdown" during January.

Christmas is appearing to be simply incompatible with the restrictions they've attempted to impose over the winter.
 

Richard Scott

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SAGE said (pre-Christmas announcement) for every day of relaxed restrictions there would need to be tightened for 2 days and other scientific bodies were saying up to 4 days for one day of relaxed restrictions. The PM didn't present the evidence they used for deciding on Christmas.

I don't think the reports are the issue, it's when the media try to make headlines from them which means we often hear about the best or worst case scenario mentioned, not all the scenarios mentioned.

It also doesn't help that the BBC keep getting that mad American professor from Edinburgh University - Devi Sridhar - on to talk about COVID. Yes we know what's worked in Singapore and New Zealand but that doesn't mean it's the right approach for the UK. If she was PM we'd probably have all imports and exports stopped because she's convinced our COVID rate is so bad because we still allow people in and out of the country.
So SAGE said, sorry but not taking that as any evidence so yet again same nonsense trotted out from same organisations with no evidence given.
 

MikeWM

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The politicians need to get a hold of this and decide what's supposed to happen over Christmas. This fudge is completely unacceptable, as is any notion that we're subject to being threatened with a January lockdown if there's any loosening over Christmas.

The whole thing is a continual chain of absurdities. There's really no point anymore in trying to follow it or make sense of it.

I still don't get why we're even having this current lockdown when my area is going to a worse tier after it.

About 40% of people in England went into this lockdown in a Tier 1 area. When it ends next week about 1% will be in Tier 1. That was clearly worth it then :rolleyes:
 

bramling

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The whole thing is a continual chain of absurdities. There's really no point anymore in trying to follow it or make sense of it.

That just about sums it up. It would be funny if one were an alien in outer space watching this performance, the only bit we're waiting for now is Noel Edmunds to jump out with the gotcha trophy. Unfortunately it's rather more serious than all that.
 

duncanp

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It's getting even more ridiculous now.

SAGE are now recommending we don't play board games, just in case we all die from playing scrabble or snakes & ladders.


Quizzes rather than board games are one of the recommendations from scientists for a Covid-safe Christmas.
Earlier this week, the government announced up to three households will be allowed to form a "Christmas bubble" from 23 to 27 December.
But the government's scientific advisory committee, Sage, warns coronavirus could easily spread during the festive relaxation of the rules.
They say people should still weigh up if an event could be postponed.
If not, meeting online or outdoors where the risks of transmission are lower, could be a better option.
But if you do go ahead, they say, it's important to include everyone taking part in drawing up a plan for how to manage the event.
They highlight the particular importance of involving women in the decision-making.
The document says "messaging should be supportive of women adapting traditions and encouraging those around them to share the burden and to be supportive of any alterations to adapt for Covid-19 restrictions".

The advisers recognise that negotiating these arrangements may "create tensions".
But they suggest a series of measures, ranging from minimising the numbers getting together to keeping events brief to avoiding physical contact.
Maintaining social distancing, keeping surfaces clean and opening windows to allow in fresh air are all highlighted.
There are also practical suggestions:
  • Children should meet their grandparents outside where possible
  • If staying overnight, children should share bedrooms with their parents, not the children of another household
  • Be aware of the risk of spreading the virus by board games which involve lots of shared pieces - maybe try quiz games instead
But there's a warning that no single measure will guarantee that Christmas is risk-free.
Scientists warn that, within households, one infected person can pass the virus to as many as 50% of the rest.
And they say that the spread of the disease could multiply as the newly-infected people return to their usual lives after the break.
In one paper, the advisers spell out that "this is not a theoretical risk".
They point to earlier research into how other respiratory diseases such as pneumonia increase as older family members are exposed during the school holidays.
That's why they conclude that cases are set to rise.
"The prevalence could easily double during a few days of the festive season, with further multiplicative increases as new infections go back to their "routine" networks."
Another document published by Sage makes clear that most coronavirus infections happen during prolonged indoor gatherings of people who are familiar with each other.
That creates what's called an "intimacy paradox" in which we let our guard down because we don't see our loved ones as a potential dangers.
 

brad465

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It's getting even more ridiculous now.

SAGE are now recommending we don't play board games, just in case we all die from playing scrabble or snakes & ladders.

"All hail the Supreme leader [enter name of SAGE Scientist]".

Elsewhere I believe infections could easily go up in January, but I think it's much more likely to be a consequence of schools and physical workplaces that closed over Christmas returning from a 2-3 week holiday, rather than because of mixing at Christmas, in the same way infections rose again from September. However, without bringing this too much into the debate, the way "you know what" is going, if there's border disruption I wouldn't be surprised if a rise in infections in January gets overshadowed by troubles getting vaccines, drugs and other essential goods generally into the country in the first place.
 

bramling

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It's getting even more ridiculous now.

SAGE are now recommending we don't play board games, just in case we all die from playing scrabble or snakes & ladders.


If "most" Covid infections are happening as a result of indoor gatherings of people who know each other, why on earth were shops closed this month?

I am seriously starting to wonder if this performance is being deliberately run as a distraction from Brexit.
 

MikeWM

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It's getting even more ridiculous now.

SAGE are now recommending we don't play board games, just in case we all die from playing scrabble or snakes & ladders.


Have they really not got better things to do with their time? I can suggest a few things if they like...

The simple fact is that if someone in a house has a virus, everyone else in the house is very likely to be exposed to it. That's just the way it is. They pretty much admit that - after first wittering through paragraphs of utter nonsense.
 

yorksrob

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Have they really not got better things to do with their time? I can suggest a few things if they like...

The simple fact is that if someone in a house has a virus, everyone else in the house is very likely to be exposed to it. That's just the way it is. They pretty much admit that - after first wittering through paragraphs of utter nonsense.

This is true, given that we know most transmission occurs in domestic settings.

It exposes the folly of them endorsing this, while preventing people from going about their business in properly regulated covid secure environments for months on end.
 

kez19

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It's getting even more ridiculous now.

SAGE are now recommending we don't play board games, just in case we all die from playing scrabble or snakes & ladders.



Who’s up for a game of Tag or Rounders...outside?


They mentioned as well it not being risk free either, well colour me blind really? Just like when people have colds or flus but never mind, it’s a virus (if we to still believe this)....


I wonder if those at SAGE will also do the opposite of what the public are instructed to do? Politicians are getting their fair share I wonder if we will see one of them slip up..
 
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duncanp

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I wonder if those at SAGE will also do the opposite of what the public are instructed to do?

Well Professor Pantsdown certainly did the opposite of what he should have done, so there is precedent here.
 

Pete_uk

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Ever fallen off a ladder? It hurts.
Ever been bitten by a snake? It hurts.

If you bring Covid into a household it's almost inevitable (but not 100% certain) you will pass it onto the others
 

brad465

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If "most" Covid infections are happening as a result of indoor gatherings of people who know each other, why on earth were shops closed this month?

I am seriously starting to wonder if this performance is being deliberately run as a distraction from Brexit.
I do believe one has acted as the dead cat for the other at least once this year. Covid is a good dead cat for Brexit with regards to economic hit (pass the latter off as because of the former) and in negotiation handling generally, while the internal market bill debacle has helped as one of many different dead cats to distract from disastrous Covid handling.

Right now with the end of the TP looming it makes a lot of sense for Covid to cover up Brexit issues, so the revised tier structure and Christmas rules certainly help that distraction.
 

Bantamzen

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The sensible thing would be for people who do mix households over Christmas to voluntarily self isolate for a week or two before and/or afterwards, as much as possible.

This would entail leaving your home as little as possible, and having contact with as few people as possible, taking account of your work, family and other committments.

This would mitigate against any increased risk posed by separate households mixing.

But since when did common sense come into the equation with regard to COVID-19?
So let's say people did that, would you be happy turning up at your local supermarket only to be told that there's a 3 hour wait due to most staff self-isolating? Or perhaps ringing your bank only to be told that you are in a 5 hour queue because of the same?

Because that is potentially what would happen with your proposals. Unless of course you have any idea how you could manage who would be allowed to meet with family, and those who could not.
 

Richard Scott

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Ever fallen off a ladder? It hurts.
Ever been bitten by a snake? It hurts.

If you bring Covid into a household it's almost inevitable (but not 100% certain) you will pass it onto the others
Not sure I follow the logic here. What's falling off a ladder or a snake bite got to do with transmission of a virus? By the way you cannot transmit Covid, that's what you develop from the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
 

duncanp

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Ever fallen off a ladder? It hurts.
Ever been bitten by a snake? It hurts.

If you bring Covid into a household it's almost inevitable (but not 100% certain) you will pass it onto the others

The Snakes & Ladders I was referring to in my earlier post is a board game.


Snakes and Ladders, known originally as Moksha Patam, is an ancient Indian board game for two or more players regarded today as a worldwide classic.[1] It is played on a game board with numbered, gridded squares. A number of "ladders" and "snakes" are pictured on the board, each connecting two specific board squares. The object of the game is to navigate one's game piece, according to die rolls, from the start (bottom square) to the finish (top square), helped by climbing ladders but hindered by falling down snakes.
What about a bit of common sense, such as sanitising the board and all the pieces of any board game that you play, and getting everyone who plays the game to sanitise their hands?

Oh, we can't have that, as it would distract from our agenda of scaring everyone witless. (or something that rhymes with witless)
 

Darandio

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Ever fallen off a ladder? It hurts.
Ever been bitten by a snake? It hurts.

If you bring Covid into a household it's almost inevitable (but not 100% certain) you will pass it onto the others

Have you leaked the new Boris tagline for over Christmas?
 

duncanp

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So let's say people did that, would you be happy turning up at your local supermarket only to be told that there's a 3 hour wait due to most staff self-isolating? Or perhaps ringing your bank only to be told that you are in a 5 hour queue because of the same?

Because that is potentially what would happen with your proposals. Unless of course you have any idea how you could manage who would be allowed to meet with family, and those who could not.

What I said was that people should self isolate as much as possible, taking into account their work and other commitments.

So if you are able to work from home, you should do so for up to two weeks after meeting up with family over Christmas.

But if you do work in a supermarket or bank, you can't self isolate and you will need to go to work. However you can self isolate for the time when you are not at work.

My suggestion was simply a strategy to reduce, not eliminate, the possibility of virus transmission following families meeting up at Christmas.
 

kez19

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Well Professor Pantsdown certainly did the opposite of what he should have done, so there is precedent here.

True

Ever fallen off a ladder? It hurts.
Ever been bitten by a snake? It hurts.

If you bring Covid into a household it's almost inevitable (but not 100% certain) you will pass it onto the others


If you get any of above it’s possibly COVID...
 
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