Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

[Typhoon]

So, how's Boris doing these days? Despite executing enough U-turns to make anyone dizzy, there doesn't seem to be quite as much of a furore over his (lack of) performance in recent weeks. Is he actually a bit more secure in his post; or are people just biding their time waiting for a few more major problems to occur?

Incompetence seems to be the new norm. Unfortunately, at least as far as people I speak to or hear from, it is leading to all politicians being painted with the same brush. (There are, after all, degrees of incompetence.)

He seems to be living in a different world, you can only get away with calling 'night' 'day' for so long before people realise it is pitch dark. What has really irritated me is

But now Mr Johnson wants people to be "civil and kind" in political discussions to stop life being made "unpleasant" for Tory MPs

(from https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-demands-politics-civil-23339737). How long before his own kindness and civility comes home to roost

The part-Kenyan President [has an] ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender.

Someone needs to replay some of his PMQ answers/ speeches back to him.

I think that some of them are just beginning to start distancing themselves from him, so that when they stab him in the back they can pretend that all the mistakes were his and his alone. But then, he chose to fill his cabinet with power-hungry non-entities.

I notice that Priti Patel is distancing herself from the decision not to close borders in March

 

[Journeyman]

Patel’s recent comments where she’s claiming she wanted the borders closing last March suggest this is happening

She only wants that because she's an immigrant-hating racist. Ironic, given her background.

 

[najaB]

She only wants that because she's an immigrant-hating racist. Ironic, given her background.

Methinks there's a bit of self-loathing going on there...

 

[Journeyman]

Methinks there's a bit of self-loathing going on there...

Who knows? It seems quite bizarre that many ethnic minority Tories will proudly brag of how they pulled themselves up from their dirt-poor child-of-immigrants backgrounds, but will happily deny the opportunity to anyone else who fancies a go.

 

[Typhoon]

She only wants that because she's an immigrant-hating racist. Ironic, given her background.

The last one through the door is often the one that wants it bolted behind them.

 

[Busaholic]

Methinks there's a bit of self-loathing going on there...

Pritti Patel's family was amongst those 'encouraged' to leave Uganda or actively expelled by President Idi Amin in the early 1970s, continuing a policy started by Milton Obote in the late 1960s. These 'Ugandan Asians' (as they were described by UK media) were almost all of Indian Hindi extraction, in possession of British passports and a majority of them never applied for Ugandan citizenship, which led to tensions with ethnic Ugandans and an 'Africanisation' policy implemented by the psychopathic Amin depriving them of jobs and seizing their businesses. They were considered by Amin and even more sane and tolerant black Ugandans as worse than the expat, white Europeans who remained. It would therefore be of no surprise to many that Patel would not consider herself 'black' in any way or show empathy to, for instance, the Windrush generation, so I wouldn't come to the same conclusion as you. Also, if you're a Hindu from an Indian background,to have endured the term 'Paki' thrown at you would be more than just annoyingly inaccurate!

 

[alex397]

I really don't want to see any of the current cabinet replacing Johnson, especially Patel or Hancock (although I can't see Hancock getting much support in becoming a PM). We need a new cabinet, regardless of political colour. I've never supported the Tories, but they have gone too far to the right. It is my view that a country needs a more centrist cabinet/leader.

 

[DorkingMain]

I don't expect Boris to depart while we're currently on such a low note. His ego wouldn't allow it.

That being said I don't expect him to stand at the next election (especially not in his Uxbridge seat, which edges ever closer to becoming a marginal). When the COVID / Brexit situations will simmer down enough to allow him to bow out gracefully I don't know.

I really don't want to see any of the current cabinet replacing Johnson, especially Patel or Hancock (although I can't see Hancock getting much support in becoming a PM). We need a new cabinet, regardless of political colour. I've never supported the Tories, but they have gone too far to the right. It is my view that a country needs a more centrist cabinet/leader.

I really get the feeling Sunak is positioning himself for a try at being the next leader, but so far he's acted like a spectacularly blank canvas and never really committed to dealing with anything, only appearing when there's money to be given out. Under more pressure and scrutiny I'm very sceptical about how well he'd hold up.

I'm pretty much in the middle politically, and I have to agree I wouldn't trust any of the current cabinet for a second. Unfortunately a lot of the sensible / moderate Tories were pushed off the front benches or out of politics entirely (e.g. Rory Stewart) as a result of the May government.

 

[DB]

I really don't want to see any of the current cabinet replacing Johnson, especially Patel or Hancock (although I can't see Hancock getting much support in becoming a PM). We need a new cabinet, regardless of political colour. I've never supported the Tories, but they have gone too far to the right. It is my view that a country needs a more centrist cabinet/leader.

There are woefully few prominent Tories (and the same applies to Labour) who show much potential as leadership material though. The only Tory who immediately springs to mind is Javid. I don't necessarily agree with his politics, but he at least gives an impression of competence and has shown integrity in the recent past - that alone is a rare trait among leading politicians!

 

[Revilo]

That being said I don't expect him to stand at the next election (especially not in his Uxbridge seat, which edges ever closer to becoming a marginal). When the COVID / Brexit situations will simmer down enough to allow him to bow out gracefully I don't know.

He may not stand there again, but worth noting that Boris increased his majority in Uxbridge at the last general election. Uxbridge was a leave-voting part of London.

 

[DorkingMain]

He may not stand there again, but worth noting that Boris increased his majority in Uxbridge at the last general election. Uxbridge was a leave-voting part of London.

I think the last election produced some unusual results as a result of Brexit. If current polls that have Labour and the Tories practically even are to be believed, the next election will look more like the 2017 election than the 2019 one.

 

[Mojo]

He may not stand there again, but worth noting that Boris increased his majority in Uxbridge at the last general election. Uxbridge was a leave-voting part of London.

It’s worth pointing out that the seat (it’s in the area where I live) is not just Uxbridge, but also South Ruislip, Ruislip Manor, a small part of Ruislip, Cowley, Hillingdon, and Yiewsley [the latter two moving toward the poorer southern part of the Borough of Hillingdon which has John McDonnell as its MP]. I’m not going to pretend it’s a diverse seat because it isn’t (compared to places like Tower Hamlets), but it is definitely changing demographically and I could certainly see it swing in the not too distant future; especially if an election is in university term time! Also worth mentioning the border review recommended adding part of Ealing (two Northolt wards) which are also very Labour, whilst taking away some more Conservative areas.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm pretty much in the middle politically, and I have to agree I wouldn't trust any of the current cabinet for a second. Unfortunately a lot of the sensible / moderate Tories were pushed off the front benches or out of politics entirely (e.g. Rory Stewart) as a result of the May government.

Most of them, including May, were in fact pushed off or out by the BoZo government.

 

[najaB]

It would therefore be of no surprise to many that Patel would not consider herself 'black' in any way or show empathy to, for instance, the Windrush generation, so I wouldn't come to the same conclusion as you.

I don't find her reprehensible because of her racism, but because of her attitude towards immigrants and refugees. The policies she's enacting would likely have stopped her parents from escaping persecution in Uganda.

Home Secretary Priti Patel admits own parents might not have been allowed into UK under her new immigration laws

Minister insisted that changes were 'not about my background or my parents'

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Busaholic]

I don't find her reprehensible because of her racism, but because of her attitude towards immigrants and refugees. The policies she's enacting would likely have stopped her parents from escaping persecution in Uganda.

Home Secretary Priti Patel admits own parents might not have been allowed into UK under her new immigration laws

Minister insisted that changes were 'not about my background or my parents'

www.independent.co.uk

I agree with you there, but I really don't think self-loathing is in her make-up. A lack of self-awareness, perhaps, but then the current crop of politicians have that in spades!

 

[brad465]

Does anyone know where apparent rumours came from that an early general election will be called by Johnson if the vaccination programme rollout goes well? Apparently they would do it to secure more time in power knowing the fallout from Brexit isn't going to help them in the build-up to 2024, while taking up a popularity boost if the vaccine programme succeeds. However there are several reasons I think this would seriously backfire even if the rollout is really successful:

-The electorate had enough of elections between 2016 and 2019 and would be thinking an 80 seat majority would provide a break from another. Calling one like this will therefore be annoying and won't treat the Tory party kindly for calling it. They may also see it as opportunistic, something that probably stopped Brown calling an early election after becoming PM, despite all the rumours.
-Not all the Tory party is on the same wavelength over the Covid handling, as the Tory backbenches, parts of social media and some of their traditional media supporters (e.g. The Telegraph and TalkRadio) prove. Much of the damage all these restrictions will have done has already happened and will become more apparent as the months roll on, and I don't think all the backbenchers will agree to an election being called as a result, unless the return to old election legislation passes early this year, but the damage that's been done will split their base if a 2021 election happens regardless of how an election is called.
-While the Tories might want to fight the election on the back of "beating Covid", there is no doubt many will be questioning how each party plans to pay off the £2 trillion+ debt mountain this has now caused, and Tory austerity and how they've spent the borrowed money in Covid handling will be used against them very heavily by other parties. The cronyism/corruption will not pass by quietly either; Kier Starmer is aware of it, and even if he doesn't talk about it many of the smaller parties will not keep quiet about it in the slightest.

 

[The Ham]

Does anyone know where apparent rumours came from that an early general election will be called by Johnson if the vaccination programme rollout goes well? Apparently they would do it to secure more time in power knowing the fallout from Brexit isn't going to help them in the build-up to 2024, while taking up a popularity boost if the vaccine programme succeeds. However there are several reasons I think this would seriously backfire even if the rollout is really successful:

-The electorate had enough of elections between 2016 and 2019 and would be thinking an 80 seat majority would provide a break from another. Calling one like this will therefore be annoying and won't treat the Tory party kindly for calling it. They may also see it as opportunistic, something that probably stopped Brown calling an early election after becoming PM, despite all the rumours.
-Not all the Tory party is on the same wavelength over the Covid handling, as the Tory backbenches, parts of social media and some of their traditional media supporters (e.g. The Telegraph and TalkRadio) prove. Much of the damage all these restrictions will have done has already happened and will become more apparent as the months roll on, and I don't think all the backbenchers will agree to an election being called as a result, unless the return to old election legislation passes early this year, but the damage that's been done will split their base if a 2021 election happens regardless of how an election is called.
-While the Tories might want to fight the election on the back of "beating Covid", there is no doubt many will be questioning how each party plans to pay off the £2 trillion+ debt mountain this has now caused, and Tory austerity and how they've spent the borrowed money in Covid handling will be used against them very heavily by other parties. The cronyism/corruption will not pass by quietly either; Kier Starmer is aware of it, and even if he doesn't talk about it many of the smaller parties will not keep quiet about it in the slightest.

On the last point, there's not actually a need to pay back that money.

If we had zero debt then there would be no NS&I, which would mean no safe place for people to keep their money beyond the government back level within banks.

Likewise quite a lot of debt is held by pension funds so that there's safe investments for your money to be held in as you get closer to retirement.

Therefore having zero debt would directly harm quite a lot of us.

However it would also indirectly harm us, as there's a fair chunk of money which is held overseas by those who would wish to travel here or but goods and services from UK companies.

Whilst larger debts are likely to increase the risk of non payment when people ask for their money, the UK isn't the only country racking up debts and so is probably still a fairly safe bet when looking for a safe investment.

You only need to look at what's happening with the likes of Bitcoin to see how currencies work. In that as long as there's money to pay to those who want their money back there's nothing stopping others wanting to hold that cash.

The main reason that they are seeing large increases in value is that they have a limited amount of currency and so there'll never be more of it (so in that regard is seen as more secure than gold). Therefore it would be an interesting experiment if a country were to try that with their own currency, it would certainly make it popular with its population as they would find themselves getting richer as time went by. However it could mean that it was very hard for individuals and governments to borrow money as there could be very big limits on the supply of currency. Having said that it could make the buying of products and services from overseas very cheap as it would likely be that the value of the currency increased significantly over time.

However that would still lead to a large debt, as others would want to keep the currency.

 

[Ianno87]

I think the last election produced some unusual results as a result of Brexit.

And the quality of the Labour offering...

 

[DB]

If there was an early election, I can't see how it could possibly benefit the Tories - even if they did win (by no means a given) it would likely be with a much reduced majority.

 

[Swanny200]

None of the current cabinet should be allowed anywhere near no10, Sunak's wife and her family are part of one of the biggest tax swindles in India, she is a multi millionaire and to make things worse failed to declare some of his interests to parliament and got away with it.

The only reason why the whole levelling up of the north is being banded around by him is because his constituency is there, had it not, then it would not even be mentioned, North Yorkshire is quite rich compared to the majority of the North, so let's see which areas the "levelling up" cash will end up going.

Patel is only out for one person and that is herself, will happily keep you onside until it suits her and then will destroy you, if that woman becomes PM then it will be game over for the UK.

Gove won't win over the party for leader, if that was the case, it would have been Johnson vs Gove last time and not Hunt.

Williamson, Hancock, Jenrick, Eustace have all proved themselves to be nothing more than smarmy, self centred people who show no sense of empathy, (unless you fake cry like Hancock) that like Patel, would sell every part of industry and infrastructure they could to their mates for a nice back hander, then either deny or just be cocky about it.

 

[Typhoon]

I don't expect Boris to depart while we're currently on such a low note. His ego wouldn't allow it.

A lot might depend on what Ms Symonds thinks. I read somewhere that people phoning our PM have heard her dulcet tones in the background telling him what to say. It might also depend on what book deal he can negotiate, my suspicion is that his stock has sunk rather since December '19.

Unfortunately a lot of the sensible / moderate Tories were pushed off the front benches or out of politics entirely (e.g. Rory Stewart) as a result of the May government.

Most of them, including May, were in fact pushed off or out by the BoZo government.

Dead right. Rory Stewart resigned the day Boris became PM and had the whip removed in October '19 along with 20 others (almost all ex-ministers - like Liddington, Clark, Gauke, Greening, Hammond). May tended to hang on to ministers, no matter what, only kicking them out when they were shown to be absolutely useless or untrustworthy. (Evidence: She kept Grayling and Johnson, and only kicked Patel out when it was shown that she had not told the whole truth). The ex-ministers I have listed may not have been wonderful but they were in a different class to the current shower.

If there was an early election, I can't see how it could possibly benefit the Tories - even if they did win (by no means a given) it would likely be with a much reduced majority.

The advantage of a reduced majority is that it tends to keep disgruntled backbenchers in line. If you have a majority of 87 (I hadn't realised that Julian Lewis had had the whip restored) and a fair chance that the DUP will not oppose most of your policies then 40 to 50 can vote against or abstain without risking bringing the government down. If that happens too often it makes the headlines and looks bad. Small majority, rebels are more likely to stay in line. That, of course, has to be weighed against losing seats. It has its dangers - John Major can attest to that.

 

[brad465]

The advantage of a reduced majority is that it tends to keep disgruntled backbenchers in line. If you have a majority of 87 (I hadn't realised that Julian Lewis had had the whip restored) and a fair chance that the DUP will not oppose most of your policies then 40 to 50 can vote against or abstain without risking bringing the government down. If that happens too often it makes the headlines and looks bad. Small majority, rebels are more likely to stay in line. That, of course, has to be weighed against losing seats. It has its dangers - John Major can attest to that.

Yes I see where you're coming from, given the many meetings Johnson has held with backbenchers to try and persuade them on the likes of the Internal Market Bill and Covid legislation. But as Theresa May proved, calling an early election can backfire dramatically. I think an early election would be more likely to be called by a new party leader on the back of a polling bounce than on Johnson succeeding with "beating Covid", however true that becomes.

 

[nlogax]

Still utterly unconvinced that Boris Johnson is going to resign anytime soon.

 

[najaB]

Still utterly unconvinced that Boris Johnson is going to resign anytime soon.

I agree. He may, however, be handed a resignation letter to sign.

 

[Typhoon]

Yes I see where you're coming from, given the many meetings Johnson has held with backbenchers to try and persuade them on the likes of the Internal Market Bill and Covid legislation. But as Theresa May proved, calling an early election can backfire dramatically. I think an early election would be more likely to be called by a new party leader on the back of a polling bounce than on Johnson succeeding with "beating Covid", however true that becomes.

Certainly it would make sense for any new leader to call an election with perhaps the hope of a smaller but respectable majority. There are two hurdles to be surmounted first. though, firstly we need to a least reach the foothills of the 'sunlit uplands', 'beating Covid' is one part but the electorate will want to see at least some benefits of Brexit and barely a week goes by without another problem being raised which (oddly) had not appeared on the bus. The second is an electable candidate, Johnson was the obvious candidate last time and May was a strong candidate the time before. There is no-one obvious at the moment and that may lead to a lot of bloodletting of the type which damaged candidates in the 2016 election. It is easy to find candidates who would be poor (incompetent, vacuous, characterless) but electable? Sunak is unproven when it comes to making difficult decisions (spending money is not difficult, spending money wisely is more difficult, and I think we are going to hear a lot about fraud and waste during the pandemic*, and we haven't seen a lot of cuts/ tax rises just yet).

Still utterly unconvinced that Boris Johnson is going to resign anytime soon.

I agree. He may, however, be handed a resignation letter to sign.

I suspect he is going to have an awkward few hours in front of backbenchers next month when he has to make a decision about relieving the lockdown. The CRG plus many of a similar mind will be pressing for a return to normality sooner rather than later but if he messes it up again and even part of the country has to return to stricter measures, there may well be widespread disobedience. He cannot win, he can, however, lose big time.


* - I've looked at the membership of the Public Accounts Committee. Not over-impressed, too many likely to give the government an easy ride but Meg Hillier is pretty forensic. How is a treasury minister (Kemi Badenoch) allowed to sit on a committee examining government spending?

 

[Beemax]

If you look at the Telegraph reader comments pages (so far to the Right they make the Telegraph itself look positively Woke) they all hate Johnson now for limiting their freedom (Enjoying your freedom now, Brexiteers?) and would be likely to vote for whatever Farage is calling himself now at any upcoming election. Farage hasn’t got a hope of winning any seats but he might split the right-wing vote enough to cause the Tories trouble, so they wouldn’t want to risk another election yet.

 

[SteveM70]

Patel ....... empathy

Now there’s a pair of words you don’t often see in the same sentence. The big difference between Patel and the likes of Hancock and Williamson is that those two are merely inept, she’s inept and evil

 

[alex397]

I agree. He may, however, be handed a resignation letter to sign.

Seeing as he can lie to the Head of State (the Queen) and not have any repercussions, and seeing how he has survived multiple controversies and lies, I wonder who would actually make him resign.

 

[najaB]

Seeing as he can lie to the Head of State (the Queen) and not have any repercussions, and seeing how he has survived multiple controversies and lies, I wonder who would actually make him resign.

The men in grey suits, as always.

 

[Bald Rick]

Seeing as he can lie to the Head of State (the Queen) and not have any repercussions, and seeing how he has survived multiple controversies and lies, I wonder who would actually make him resign.

Ms Symonds.