Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Bantamzen]

In my opinion, if it was down to SAGE, we would never come out of complete lockdown

Well as they have been part of the decision making process, they have as much reason to worry if they have been promoting something that is not accurate as politicians do.

 

[furlong]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics!

PHE Briefing Claims Indian Variant is 64% More Infectious – But Dig Down and the Finding Falls Apart

Public Health England (PHE) released its latest technical briefing (number 15) yesterday on “variants of concern” which claimed the Delta (Indian) variant is 64% more infectious than the Alpha (British) variant. But look closer and you find this headline finding is not all it seems.

In the underlying study the researchers admit they did not control for the crucial factor of household size – bigger households will tend to have more secondary infections because there are more people in the household being exposed. The authors acknowledge that many of the Delta variant households may have been larger than Alpha variant households (say, because of different proportions of different ethnic groups), and also that many of the matched controls may have lived alone – they have no way of knowing.
...
The latest figures for secondary attack rates are 11.3% for the Delta variant versus 8% for the Alpha variant. In relative terms that’s 41% more infectious, but in absolute terms it’s only 3.3% more contacts becoming infected, which is tiny. The fact that 88.7% of contacts of people infected with the Delta variant (and 92% with the Alpha variant) do not become infected is once again an indication of the high levels of immunity that exist in the community to this disease, whatever the variant.
...
in just two weeks the Delta variant secondary attack rate has reduced by 16.3%, from 13.5% to 11.3%.
...
the Alpha variant itself has reduced in infectiousness from a 12.9% secondary attack rate in January to 8% in May, four months later. While the vaccines will have helped with this to some extent, the sharp drop in the Delta variant attack rate in the last two weeks indicates that it is not just vaccine related. It appears to be related to the phase of the epidemic, with burnt-out variants having lower attack rates and newer variants that are currently causing spikes and surges having higher attack rates.

This means that comparing the infectiousness of a new variant to a burnt-out variant will always come to the conclusion that the new variant is “50% more infectious” or whatever, though this is not an innate property of the variant.
...
the Indian variant already has a lower secondary attack rate than the British variant did in January (11.3% versus 12.9%). So much for 64% more transmissible.
...
Nonetheless, it does seem to be the case that new variants can evade our immunity (whether from infection or vaccine) slightly more than the old variants and so cause a slightly greater number of infections (most of them mild) and that this may cause spikes of varying sizes (partly depending on the season) as they circulate before burning out.

 

[Eyersey468]

In my opinion, if it was down to SAGE, we would never come out of complete lockdown

Agreed

 

[NorthKent1989]

Sounds sensible to me. Vaccine refusers shouldn’t be able to delay the release of restrictions because they’re ’not protected’.

It’s not “vaccine refuses” who are delaying restrictions it’s the government themselves, there are plenty good reasons to not want the vaccine, it should be a choice.

 

[Whistler40145]

It’s not “vaccine refuses” who are delaying restrictions it’s the government themselves, there are plenty good reasons to not want the vaccine, it should be a choice.

I think it should be mandatory, have the vaccine or be refused future medical treatment

 

[Bantamzen]

I think it should be mandatory, have the vaccine or be refused future medical treatment.

Oh dear...

 

[Whistler40145]

Oh dear...

Obviously you don't care about getting the virus

 

[Bantamzen]

Obviously you don't care about getting the virus

You should really try reading the thread.

 

[Darandio]

I think it should be mandatory, have the vaccine or be refused future medical treatment

Oh wow. Here is a great thread for you. If I told you what I thought of you i'd get banned.

Should the NHS refuse treatment for people that haven’t had the vaccination?

Perhaps not. But then I regard vaccination as primarily a matter of public health, not personal, so that doesn't cause me to lose much sleep. Does that make you a sociopath?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[VauxhallandI]

Oh wow. Here is a great thread for you. If I told you what I thought of you i'd get banned.

Should the NHS refuse treatment for people that haven’t had the vaccination?

Perhaps not. But then I regard vaccination as primarily a matter of public health, not personal, so that doesn't cause me to lose much sleep. Does that make you a sociopath?

www.railforums.co.uk

Snap, it’s pathetic binary knee jerk rubbish.

 

[LAX54]

Oh wow. Here is a great thread for you. If I told you what I thought of you i'd get banned.

Should the NHS refuse treatment for people that haven’t had the vaccination?

Perhaps not. But then I regard vaccination as primarily a matter of public health, not personal, so that doesn't cause me to lose much sleep. Does that make you a sociopath?

www.railforums.co.uk

It is, however a thought that is gathering momentum around the Country it seems, well, on various forums and websites ! Is this because of the continual goal post moving, and scaremongering by the papers, news channels, FB/Twitter etc ?

 

[Darandio]

It is, however a thought that is gathering momentum around the Country it seems, well, on various forums and websites ! Is this because of the continual goal post moving, and scaremongering by the papers, news channels, FB/Twitter etc ?

Probably. They have been breaking down the figures for those admitted to hospital and telling people that the vast majority are unvaccinated or pumping out percentages of how much more transmissible this variant is and how this will rip through the unvaccinated. People won't read this as a still significant proportion of the population who simply haven't had a chance to be vaccinated yet, they will pin it on those who refuse.

 

[VauxhallandI]

It is, however a thought that is gathering momentum around the Country it seems, well, on various forums and websites ! Is this because of the continual goal post moving, and scaremongering by the papers, news channels, FB/Twitter etc ?

No is suspect it’s because people are horrible and unable to think things through beyond what’s in front of their nose.

 

[LAX54]

No is suspect it’s because people are horrible and unable to think things through beyond what’s in front of their nose.

or are they getting fed up with all the ant-vax people, saying that they will not be used as guinea pigs, or have their DNA changed etc and will take their chances, and has just wound them up ? (probably just fed up and sounding off, with being locked down, and having suggestions that 'freedom day' will be moved, due to the rise in infections..mainly unvaccinated people etc)

 

[Eyersey468]

I think it should be mandatory, have the vaccine or be refused future medical treatment

That's a dangerous road to go down, once you start where does it end?

 

[VauxhallandI]

or are they getting fed up with all the ant-vax people, saying that they will not be used as guinea pigs, or have their DNA changed etc and will take their chances, and has just wound them up ? (probably just fed up and sounding off, with being locked down, and having suggestions that 'freedom day' will be moved, due to the rise in infections..mainly unvaccinated people etc)

And being ignorant of the fact of who is getting infected and they’re respective vulnerabilities to said infection? Or the complete ignorance of the cut between infections and deaths or the fact that an infection could be a false positive and if it’a not it could even be without symptoms

yes once you ignore all the facts yes I’m with you..

 

[NorthKent1989]

I think it should be mandatory, have the vaccine or be refused future medical treatment

I see you’re one of those authoritarian types who have enjoyed telling others what to do.

No it should be a choice, making this mandatory will be a slippery slope into something we won’t be able to reverse from, for most people Covid has a high survival rate and will become seasonal much like the flu, why don’t we make vaccines mandatory for more serious diseases then.

 

[LAX54]

I see you’re one of those authoritarian types who have enjoyed telling others what to do.

No it should be a choice, making this mandatory will be a slippery slope into someone won’t be able to reverse from, for most people Covid has a high survival rate and will become seasonal much like the flu, why don’t we make vaccines mandatory for more serious diseases then.

So have we, for all intents, lost the plot ? deaths at 127K are overall quite a small number out of 66 million or more, albeit very sad if you are one of those families affected, as you would be with a death from Cancer, Flu, RTA etc, with all the doom and gloom posted in the press and on tv, from 'experts' the Government etc etc
Do other Countries use the '28 day any reason' in the death rate count ?

 

[NorthKent1989]

So have we, for all intents, lost the plot ? deaths at 127K are overall quite a small number out of 66 million or more, albeit very sad if you are one of those families affected, as you would be with a death from Cancer, Flu, RTA etc, with all the doom and gloom posted in the press and on tv, from 'experts' the Government etc etc
Do other Countries use the '28 day any reason' in the death rate count ?

I fear some have lost the plot and are begging for authoritarianism without understanding that it effects them too.

Of course a death from Covid is sad as you say, but with certain people no death is as important as a Covid death anymore

As for the 28 day count in other countries, I don’t know I wonder if an international user would be able to enlighten us on this.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Yep and it sets up the question….
You’ve forced everyone to have the vaccine, then what? What’s your next move?
The vaccine isn’t 100% effective against death?

 

[Bishopstone]

It’s not “vaccine refuses” who are delaying restrictions it’s the government themselves, there are plenty good reasons to not want the vaccine, it should be a choice.

I agree that vaccination should be a choice.

However, once all over-18s have been offered two jabs (early autumn), then reasons will need to be found to justify ongoing restrictions, which will include:

i) Children haven't been jabbed yet, so aren't safe
ii) Winter pressure on the NHS
iii) New variants: real or hypothetical
iv) Several million eligible adults haven't come forward for the jab, or have refused it, and they aren't protected but are owed a duty of care by wider society

So actually, I'm afraid refusers are helping to build a narrative for the ongoing restrictions that many of them claim to despise.

 

[applepie2100]

The vaccine isn’t 100% effective against death?

If they manage to get us all vaccinated against death they're going to have a far bigger issue than Covid in a few years time

 

[VauxhallandI]

I agree that vaccination should be a choice.

However, once all over-18s have been offered two jabs (early autumn), then reasons will need to be found to justify ongoing restrictions, which will include:

i) Children haven't been jabbed yet, so aren't safe
ii) Winter pressure on the NHS
iii) New variants: real or hypothetical
iv) Several million eligible adults haven't come forward for the jab, or have refused it, and they aren't protected but are owed a duty of care by wider society

So actually, I'm afraid refusers are helping to build a narrative for the ongoing restrictions that many of them claim to despise.

Exactly a narrative not a reality.

So if we end the narrative and go back to reality all your bullets are irrelevant

 

[NorthKent1989]

I agree that vaccination should be a choice.

However, once all over-18s have been offered two jabs (early autumn), then reasons will need to be found to justify ongoing restrictions, which will include:

i) Children haven't been jabbed yet, so aren't safe
ii) Winter pressure on the NHS
iii) New variants: real or hypothetical
iv) Several million eligible adults haven't come forward for the jab, or have refused it, and they aren't protected but are owed a duty of care by wider society

So actually, I'm afraid refusers are helping to build a narrative for the ongoing restrictions that many of them claim to despise.

A convenient narrative to the government, locktavists and their merry band of BoJo supporters but not conclusive fact, especially when the majority of people have a 99% chance surviving covid.

The pure truth and fact of the matter is that the goal posts keep changing, get the vaccine so we can go back to normal, more than half the population went out and got the vaccine and now it’s looking likely that “Freedom Day” will be pushed to July, that has nothing to do with unvaccinated people but everything to do with a government that wants to be seen to be doing something rather than accepting that Covid is here to stay and we need to live with it.

I could twist It around and say that locktavists are directly responsible for the upcoming recession, job losses and a unprecedented mental health crisis, for their continued obsession with locking the nation down every time there’s a new variant.

 

[greyman42]

The problem is that Hancock can quickly write a new statutory instrument under the public health act and have it take effect instantly,

If we stick two fingers up at any mask wearing requirements after the 21st then it will be quietly dropped, as was the not meeting on park benches fiasco.

Yep, the ones I know are all doing very well. My local pub tonight was as busy as it’s ever been.

Pubs consider doing well as having people stood shoulder to shoulder, not sat at anti socially distanced tables. I can only presume your local does not get very busy.

 

[NorthKent1989]

If we stick two fingers up at any mask wearing requirements after the 21st then it will be quietly dropped, as was the not meeting on park benches fiasco.


Pubs consider doing well as having people stood shoulder to shoulder, not sat at anti socially distanced tables. I can only presume your local does not get very busy.

I’m certainly seeing fewer mask wearers on transportation and on the streets, at one point I saw everyone wearing masks in the street last year.

There does seem to be a feeling that the majority will simply ditch the rules on the 21st regardless of what Boris says

 

[LAX54]

A convenient narrative to the government, locktavists and their merry band of BoJo supporters but not conclusive fact, especially when the majority of people have a 99% chance surviving covid.

The pure truth and fact of the matter is that the goal posts keep changing, get the vaccine so we can go back to normal, more than half the population went out and got the vaccine and now it’s looking likely that “Freedom Day” will be pushed to July, that has nothing to do with unvaccinated people but everything to do with a government that wants to be seen to be doing something rather than accepting that Covid is here to stay and we need to live with it.

I could twist It around and say that locktavists are directly responsible for the upcoming recession, job losses and a unprecedented mental health crisis, for their continued obsession with locking the nation down every time there’s a new variant.

Getting the impression it will now be JULY 19th instead of June 21st, BUT if things do not change that much, or we see an 'E' variant, will that then go to August.............. ?

 

[Failed Unit]

Obviously you don't care about getting the virus

Nope. As I am highly likely to survive it. If I was scared of the worse case scenario I would never leave the house as I could get hit by a car crossing the road. If the new restrictions are how we are expected to live our life is death such a bad thing?

 

[seagull]

One could argue now that there seems precious little point in getting the vaccine anyway, if the powers-that-be seem determined on keeping us locked down forever, despite the risk of death just by venturing across the nearest main road being higher than that of dying from Covid. It's certainly making me think long and hard about whether to bother with the booster (2nd jab).

 

[NorthKent1989]

Getting the impression it will now be JULY 19th instead of June 21st, BUT if things do not change that much, or we see an 'E' variant, will that then go to August.............. ?

It’s looking that way, however I do feel that the government have overplayed their hand this time.

There is a feeling that a large portion of the population is simply done with these restrictions now, it’s a totally different feeling to where we were this time last year, or even six months ago.

The government and other powers that be cannot deny that they promoted the vaccine as a key to ending ALL restrictions, this line of thinking has been touted all over the place since before the first vaccine roll out and now over half the population has been vaccinated more importantly all vulnerable people have been vaccinated, the government has moved the goal posts!

It’s really no wonder a large amount of the people are reluctant to get the vaccine and are becoming increasingly more and more sceptical (me being one of them, though I decided long ago that I didn’t need the Covid vaccine because even if I did get it, it would barely affect me)

I do know of some businesses that will drop restrictions simply because they cannot afford any further restrictions.

One could argue now that there seems precious little point in getting the vaccine anyway, if the powers-that-be seem determined on keeping us locked down forever, despite the risk of death just by venturing across the nearest main road being higher than that of dying from Covid. It's certainly making me think long and hard about whether to bother with the booster (2nd jab).

I’ve heard a fair many people say they won’t bother getting the 2nd for this reason alone, although I’m sure there are other reasons too