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Heading into autumn - what next?

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eastdyke

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Sounds like we have something approximating to a control group then, compared to the rest of the country. Are hospitalisations/deaths currently running much higher in London than the rest of England?
For hospital deaths, recent data and graphs for London, along with comparisons for England as a whole can be found here:
Because the figures are incomplete interpretation is not easy.

Deaths outside of hospitals

The data published by NHS England does not include deaths that occur outside of hospitals, i.e. those in homes, hospices, and care homes.

ONS have published data for deaths by place of occurrence. This shows that, up to 20 August, 78% of deaths in London recorded as involving COVID-19 occurred in hospitals (this compares with 42% for all causes of death). This would suggest that the NHS England data may underestimate overall deaths from COVID-19 by around 20%.
But what I can say is that the current Covid case rates are significantly lower for London when compared with England as a whole. The most recent 7 day figures seen are:
London all age 232.4 cases per 100,000 population.
England all age 362.9 cases per 100,000 population.
As ever multiple factors will be affecting this, not least perhaps that London generally front ran the numbers in the earliest phases of infection.

In other news:
The BBC are reporting (yes I know!): [and I am struggling with the rather jumbled reporting]


This has the potential to affect us all if not quickly resolved. Some decent rain (very little rain here in East Mids. for some time) might help with dilution of any poor quality sewage discharges but might in turn make it more difficult for the raw drinking water!
The Environment Agency has told water firms they can temporarily reduce the amount of chemicals used for the treatment of waste water.
The move comes in response to problems in the chemical supply chain caused by the lorry driver shortage.
Water UK said there was no shortage of the chemicals, just a distribution issue.
The government said it was a short-term measure and firms wishing to make use of it had to seek official approval.
The Environment Agency issued a regulatory statement authorising "a temporary reduction in the dosage used to treat waste water".
The Chemical Business Association (CBA), which represents chemical businesses within the supply chain, had expressed concern that its members were struggling to get chemicals into the logistics network and to water companies because of a shortage of HGV drivers.

"Our member companies have been reporting ever increasing difficulties in sourcing and maintaining deliveries into the chemical supply chain, all of which we have been highlighting to government, said Tim Doggett, chief executive of the CBA.
"Inevitably these issues are now beginning to impact the our water supply. As such we're now calling on government for urgent and increased action to help tackle these issues."

A spokesperson for Water UK said: "We are currently experiencing some disruption to the supply in England of ferric sulphate, a chemical used at some drinking and waste water treatment sites.
"This will not affect the supply of drinking water. As a precaution, however, we are monitoring the situation due to the use of ferric sulphate in some waste treatment works.
"We are working closely with government and our chemical suppliers to ensure disruption is minimised.
"This issue has arisen due to a shortage of HGV drivers in the UK. There is no shortage of ferric sulphate in factories; the issue is solely one of distribution."
A government spokesperson said: "This action is strictly time-limited and there are robust conditions in place to mitigate risks to the environment.
"The most sensitive and high-risk watercourses will not be affected and any company planning to make use of this short-term measure must first agree its use with the Environment Agency, which will be checking compliance."
 
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quantinghome

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Before we get too carried away with the idea, the media have been speculating more restrictions for months now. For most of the leadup to the summer holidays they were gleefully pronouncing that countries like Spain would go on the red list. This is happening because they can, they don't need to report what is happening any more, just what someone thinks might happen. They are crystal ball gazing. At this point I'd advise everyone to no longer follow the links, and those people who have copy & paste as much as the story to these forums as possible.

Less clicks = less scare stories.
The media will of course sensationalise things.

But I also wonder whether there's something else going on, namely nudge theory. The NHS will be under less pressure from a surge in infections if people take precautions to limit spread. The government may be looking to change behaviour by flying a story about a lockdown, but with little intention to actually do it. This assumes that they are actually thinking about it rather than just winging it.
 

greyman42

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It's purely the observation that if we reach the point where another lockdown is politically inevitable (people want it, media calling for it, opposition calling for it)
Why would the people want another lockdown?
 

Cdd89

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Why would the people want another lockdown?
The three items in parentheses (people want it, media calling for it, opposition calling for it) have a tendency to become a feedback loop. It starts out with a few vocal people/"scientists" and turns into overwhelming support.
 

bramling

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The three items in parentheses (people want it, media calling for it, opposition calling for it) have a tendency to become a feedback loop. It starts out with a few vocal people/"scientists" and turns into overwhelming support.

I wonder if support will be quite so overwhelming now everyone's found themselves on the receiving end of a tax rise, which Boris has fairly and squarely blamed on Covid spending. No doubt it's been decided now is the best time, get it in as far before the next general election as possible.
 

Bantamzen

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I wonder if support will be quite so overwhelming now everyone's found themselves on the receiving end of a tax rise, which Boris has fairly and squarely blamed on Covid spending. No doubt it's been decided now is the best time, get it in as far before the next general election as possible.
We shall see, I'm sure there will be some still going after more restrictions, but it is going to be a wake-up call for some. We were always going to face tax increases / service cuts as a result of restrictions, unfortunately those least able to afford them will be the ones that are hit the hardest. And all this after 18 months of being hit hard.
 

birchesgreen

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I wonder if support will be quite so overwhelming now everyone's found themselves on the receiving end of a tax rise, which Boris has fairly and squarely blamed on Covid spending. No doubt it's been decided now is the best time, get it in as far before the next general election as possible.

Yes those massive unused field hospitals, dodgy PPE contracts and the black hole that is track & trace doesn't come cheap.

The tax rise is to pay for the billions hoovered up by Boris' mates and backers.
 

Bantamzen

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Yes those massive unused field hospitals, dodgy PPE contracts and the black hole that is track & trace doesn't come cheap.

The tax rise is to pay for the billions hoovered up by Boris' mates and backers.
And not only that but those dodgy contracts go practically unnoticed. Right now pitchforks need to be sharpened, torches lit, but the great British public will just tut, take to social media and blame everyone else without so much as a "Who exactly are we paying for?"
 

bramling

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And not only that but those dodgy contracts go practically unnoticed. Right now pitchforks need to be sharpened, torches lit, but the great British public will just tut, take to social media and blame everyone else without so much as a "Who exactly are we paying for?"

I hope, but don’t expect, this causes a bit of a riot within the Conservative party, eventually leading to a position where they decide it’s time to move on from Boris. Much as I don’t rate the potential alternatives, I find it hard to visualise how *anyone* could do a worse job.
 

Bantamzen

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I hope, but don’t expect, this causes a bit of a riot within the Conservative party, eventually leading to a position where they decide it’s time to move on from Boris. Much as I don’t rate the potential alternatives, I find it hard to visualise how *anyone* could do a worse job.
Looks at the opposite side of the House.....

Oh I'm sure we'll (as a nation) find worse sadly.
 

bramling

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Looks at the opposite side of the House.....

Oh I'm sure we'll (as a nation) find worse sadly.

It’s surprising just how ineffective Starmer has been. One does wonder if he’s biding his time sitting back and allowing BJ to mess up, but if he is then the strategy isn’t really working as for some reason people seem to continue to love Boris, and in any case Labour are paid to be the official opposition.

Covid is now the premier means of burying bad news, and for using as a way of justifying unpopular stuff. We’re seeing it all over life now.
 

Bantamzen

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It’s surprising just how ineffective Starmer has been. One does wonder if he’s biding his time sitting back and allowing BJ to mess up, but if he is then the strategy isn’t really working as for some reason people seem to continue to love Boris, and in any case Labour are paid to be the official opposition.

Covid is now the premier means of burying bad news, and for using as a way of justifying unpopular stuff. We’re seeing it all over life now.
If Labour are really going to stand as a viable opposition against things like this they need to do a lot more, sitting back and waiting for a cock-up plays into the Tory hands. They are dab hands at cooking up and getting away with it.
 

greyman42

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The three items in parentheses (people want it, media calling for it, opposition calling for it) have a tendency to become a feedback loop. It starts out with a few vocal people/"scientists" and turns into overwhelming support.
What has that got to do with the question. Why would the people want it?
The only people i can see wanting it is those who want to dodge going to work.
 

ic31420

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Frankly I'm surprised Starmer is red. I followed him quite keenly as a DPP where he talked a lot of sense.

You could have blown me over with a Feather when I found he was red..

In terms of the "rising covid figures mean vaccine on has been a failure" argument. The vaccine isn't one of those that wipes out the virus like polio or measles. It's one that limits the effects, if you like it reddies the body for it and gives the body a head start. Because of that it's not about reducing infection, but about limiting hospitalisation, serious illness and death. Rising infection and low deaths and hospitalisation is a sign it's working.

It seems to be very successful in doing that.
And I'm far from a jabvicate and haven't got around to it myself.
 

brad465

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Looks at the opposite side of the House.....

Oh I'm sure we'll (as a nation) find worse sadly.
Whether or not Labour are worse we'll never know for sure while they're not in power. What I am confident of though is the media would have collectively done a much better job of trying to hold them to account, given large swathes are Tory bootlickers (or is it the Tories kicking the media's boots or both?). The same media would have been less likely to back restrictions if Labour were in charge, and maybe even have actively encouraged civil unrest against them.

I expect though they'll continue to back restrictions for as long as SAGE demand them, so in a way what we need (but almost certainly won't get), is a more balanced SAGE base to both prevent restrictions returning and get Labour on board with a more relaxed approach.
 

yorkie

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Some good news:


This week, Tim tells us about the surprising revelation that COVID cases haven't gone up as he predicted last week, and in fact, while case numbers are still high, they're showing modest signs of a decrease.
The exception is Scotland where case numbers are really high; I personally suspect it was because case rates were suppressed more in Scotland due to various factors including more stringent restrictions earlier in the pandemic. Now there is no material difference in restrictions between Scotland and England (except of course ineffective masks are worn but as I said that does not make a material difference), Scotland is inevitably going to see higher rates as there are fewer people who have been exposed to the virus. This was always inevitable in my opinion but others may take a different view.

However the situation could change of course as we head into the Autumn.

If people keep getting vaccinated and we reduce the proportion of people who are vaccine hesitant, case rates will become increasingly irrelevant.
 

DelW

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The exception is Scotland where case numbers are really high; I personally suspect it was because case rates were suppressed more in Scotland due to various factors including more stringent restrictions earlier in the pandemic. Now there is no material difference in restrictions between Scotland and England (except of course ineffective masks are worn but as I said that does not make a material difference), Scotland is inevitably going to see higher rates as there are fewer people who have been exposed to the virus. This was always inevitable in my opinion but others may take a different view.
One difference is that Scotland's schools returned several weeks ago, which might be having an effect on case numbers that won't yet be visible in England.

It'll be interesting to see the comparison in two or three weeks time. If England's numbers stay stable or decline, that will certainly be encouraging for the autumn.
 

yorkie

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One difference is that Scotland's schools returned several weeks ago, which might be having an effect on case numbers that won't yet be visible in England.
Maybe but we started to see a very significant increase in Scotland before students returned to school.
 

Jamiescott1

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I know a school that returned on 1st September. High case rates at PHE England has instructed masks, limiting of indoors gatherings to 25, no parents on site and if no decrease in cases in 2 weeks then year group bubbles will return
 

nedchester

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Report on Channel 4 from a London hospital that 90% of patients are not fully vaccinated.

People aren’t going to accept further restrictions for these idiots.
 

Dent

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Report on Channel 4 from a London hospital that 90% of patients are not fully vaccinated.

People aren’t going to accept further restrictions for these idiots.

Do you really thing labeling people as "idiots" is appropriate?
 

bramling

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Report on Channel 4 from a London hospital that 90% of patients are not fully vaccinated.

People aren’t going to accept further restrictions for these idiots.

Nobody should be forced to take a vaccine, and you would be changing your tune if some time down the line an issue starts to emerge with an effect arising from the vaccine which wasn’t envisaged. Given the novel and relatively unknown nature of Covid, this possibility shouldn’t be dismissed, and I wouldn’t have a go at anyone for deciding to hedge their bets.

For me being vaccinated represents a set of scales. We know that young healthy people are much less likely to have a bad outcome with Covid. So set against potential unknowns with the vaccine many younger people are, in my view, quite sensible in deciding the scales tip in favour of not being vaccinated. For those on the wrong side of middle-age I’d suggest the scales tip the other way, very much so as one gets into older age. The delta variant seemingly tips the scales a bit more in favour of vaccination. But it’s still very much a personal decision to weigh up, and the stats continue to suggest that the risk of a bad outcome for younger people remains very low.

I am a little rattled with the amount of people already jumping on the “October lockdown” bandwagon, it seems some people are already relishing the prospect. Goodness knows why. We certainly need to quash any calls for it simply because some people are attracted to the idea of a two-week holiday, which unfortunately for some will be an appealing proposition.
 

yorksrob

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Such selflessness. A beacon of enlightenment.

People have a choice not to take the vaccine. It's right that they have that choice.

However I can see that the wider population will not accept restrictions to support that choice and I agree with them.

If some think that that's selfish and unenlightened, that's a shame, but so be it.
 

bramling

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People have a choice not to take the vaccine. It's right that they have that choice.

However I can see that the wider population will not accept restrictions to support that choice and I agree with them.

If some think that that's selfish and unenlightened, that's a shame, but so be it.

What’s to think people won’t accept restrictions? Dangle a bit of WFH or furlough, or put Boris on a podium tugging at the “save the NHS” heartstrings, and enough people will support it.

I’m already amazed how easily manipulated people were second time round, though of course a lot of people cherry-picked.
 

MikeWM

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People have a choice not to take the vaccine. It's right that they have that choice.

However I can see that the wider population will not accept restrictions to support that choice and I agree with them.

But that's a false dichotomy, and anyone falling for it is doing the government's work ('divide and rule') for it.

Those who are not vaccinated are not calling for restrictions. Actually I'd say there is close to a direct correlation in the opposite direction - those not vaccinated are more likely than average to have been opposed to restrictions all along. Myself, for one obvious example.
 

yorksrob

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What’s to think people won’t accept restrictions? Dangle a bit of WFH or furlough, or put Boris on a podium tugging at the “save the NHS” heartstrings, and enough people will support it.

I’m already amazed how easily manipulated people were second time round, though of course a lot of people cherry-picked.

Personally, I think that too many people have had a taste of normality to go back. And they feel that the threat of the virus is more in line with what they're used to.

Those who are not vaccinated are not calling for restrictions. Actually I'd say there is close to a direct correlation in the opposite direction - those not vaccinated are more likely than average to have been opposed to restrictions all along. Myself, for one obvious example.

This is true to an extent, but the unvaccinated don't have to "call" for restrictions if what the medical establishment decides are too many of them are ending up in hospital.

I think it's better overall if the powers that be just understand that we're not going back.
 
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NorthKent1989

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Report on Channel 4 from a London hospital that 90% of patients are not fully vaccinated.

People aren’t going to accept further restrictions for these idiots.

Because the media tells it’s so it must be true, because the media haven’t pushed an agenda at all have they?

How about less of the divisive language, if you’re vaccinated you’re protected are you not?


Such selflessness. A beacon of enlightenment.

I think those who are calling for more lockdowns are the selfish ones
 

Eyersey468

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Even a 2 week firebreak in October will finish off a lot of businesses if they are forced to close yet again.
 
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