Some people on here are positively orgasmic about the prospect of ScotRail sacking RMT members en masse. Some have tried and failed to find jobs with ScotRail and Network Rail as they have stated. Some want to hire staff on inferior contracts and on far less money. I think we should ignore these fantasies and the people behind them, as I have noticed that some railway staff contributors already seem to be doing.
Interestingly though, Southern hired a bunch of new starters fresh from the railway to become OBSs and moved other staff from other grades to fill the role as many guards left refusing to accept the new contracts.
It was a very disruptive 18 months but each strike became progressively less dramatic. With ASLEF on the side with the DOO dispute, it soon became ineffective and the battle was lost. Southern now is rather reliable and it hasn’t had a significant long-term impact on passenger usage (Covid notwithstanding).
There are differences here of course (dispatch operation not changing) but similarities are that only the RMT Conductor grade are in dispute (other unions accepting a deal), it’s related to Conductor working practices, the TOC is training up contingency staff, and a prolonged strike is on the cards.
So the RMT needs to make sure they don’t overplay their hand or in the medium-term even more drastic arrangements are a very real possibility. And ultimately, passengers bear the brunt.