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Heading into autumn - what next?

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RPI

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Some of the ivermectin trials at the site I linked to above showed good results from prophylactic use, though whether they qualify as 'proper' or not is probably up for debate. That said, I'm not sure you'd want to be taking it for any length of time 'just in case', but perhaps it may be useful if you know you've recently been in contact with the virus, or someone in your home has it.

I think the evidence for the best 'prophylactic' at this point points to ensuring you have adequate vitamin D levels. Again there are a lot of studies at https://c19vitamind.com/ that appear to show a significant link between low vitamin D levels and poor outcome from Covid. Certainly since seeing fairly convincing evidence in spring last year that this was probably a good plan, I've been taking vitamin D supplements daily.
Likewise I do the same with Vitamin D this time of year, but don't forget, just being out in the sun for around 30 minutes if it is sunny is generally about enough for your required daily amount of Vitamin D.
 
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takno

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Likewise I do the same with Vitamin D this time of year, but don't forget, just being out in the sun for around 30 minutes if it is sunny is generally about enough for your required daily amount of Vitamin D.
That's true in summer in England. It's a lot patchier in the winter or in Scotland generally. It's also pretty unlikely that most people get anything like that at this time of year, when most days don't have any sunshine at all and it's only light for about 9 hours.

Even then it generates the generally accepted minimum amount you need - there's plenty of reason to believe that a little more would probably be beneficial. They've been considering adding it to food or water in Scotland for years.
 

DustyBin

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That's true in summer in England. It's a lot patchier in the winter or in Scotland generally. It's also pretty unlikely that most people get anything like that at this time of year, when most days don't have any sunshine at all and it's only light for about 9 hours.

Even then it generates the generally accepted minimum amount you need - there's plenty of reason to believe that a little more would probably be beneficial. They've been considering adding it to food or water in Scotland for years.

Vitamin D deficiency is an increasing problem. I can remember around ten years ago there were concerns regarding the resurgence of Rickets disease. It seems sensible to take a supplement especially over winter, along with vitamin C as they compliment each other. Vitamin C can be taken and absorbed in huge quantities, I often ramp it up if I begin to feel ill. I’m not sure about vitamin D though, some vitamins can actually be toxic if taken in large doses.
 

brad465

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There is a human exceptionalism mentality about trying to beat infections that I've long believed during our covid response, but it has existed before this. I remember years ago Mark Zuckerberg planning to give vast sums of wealth into trying to eliminate every human illness around; I think covid has debunked any realistic possibility of that, both in itself and how cold and flu are resurging after a very quiet year.
 

MikeWM

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I agree. I take vitamins C and D daily and have done for many years. A lot of people see this kind of thing as quackery unfortunately. (I’d best not mention my cold remedy!) ;)

I've taken a multivitamin daily for years, but mainly because my diet probably isn't as balanced as it ought to be, and I went for the 'easy fix' rather than fixing my diet :-/

However, I must admit that before Covid, I wasn't remotely convinced about vitamin C supplements, or knew much at all about vitamin D. But I'd not read enough on the subject - now that I have, I'm very much the convert.

Vitamin C can be taken and absorbed in huge quantities, I often ramp it up if I begin to feel ill. I’m not sure about vitamin D though, some vitamins can actually be toxic if taken in large doses.

You can overdose on D, but you have to take insanely large amounts over an extended period of time. You're not at any risk with supplements you get off the supermarket shelf, unless you're taking dozens of them a day!
 

brad465

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In light of this report from Germany, I don't think the argument we're somehow our more lax around covid spreading has merit anymore (if it did before):


One of Germany's top virologists has warned that a further 100,000 people will die from Covid if nothing's done to halt an aggressive fourth wave. Case numbers have soared and Germany on Wednesday registered its highest rate of infection since the pandemic began, with almost 40,000 cases in a day.

"We have to act right now," said Christian Drosten, who described a real emergency situation.
Doctors in the intensive care Covid ward at Leipzig University Hospital warn this fourth wave could be the worst yet.
One patient here, a woman in her 20s, has just given birth. Her baby is fine, but staff say they don't know whether she'll survive.
This state of Saxony has the highest seven-day infection rate in Germany at 459 cases per 100,000 people. The national rate is 232.
It also has the lowest take-up of vaccine: 57% of the population here have been immunised.
There are 18 patients on the Covid ward. Just four were vaccinated.
"It's very difficult to get staff motivated to treat patients now in this fourth wave," says Prof Sebastian Stehr, who heads the department. "A large part of the population still underestimates the problem."
By now, Prof Sehr says, most people will know someone who's had Covid and should, therefore, be aware of the risk of infection. "Nevertheless," he adds, "we are still seeing so many patients who are not vaccinated."
Germany's health minister has publicly blamed those people for the soaring cases, describing the current situation as a "pandemic of the unvaccinated".

As I've highlighted before, the fault is not that covid is running rampant, and certainly not the fault of the wider population, the fault is us somehow thinking we can do something about its spread beyond vaccinations and treatments.
 

DustyBin

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In light of this report from Germany, I don't think the argument we're somehow our more lax around covid spreading has merit anymore (if it did before):




As I've highlighted before, the fault is not that covid is running rampant, and certainly not the fault of the wider population, the fault is us somehow thinking we can do something about its spread beyond vaccinations and treatments.

I totally agree. A few weeks ago Germany (among others) were looking at us thinking we were crazy. Thankfully we held our nerve and now Look at the reversal in fortunes. Surely the penny will drop at some point (although I've been saying that for so long now I'm not sure it actually ever will!).
 

greyman42

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I totally agree. A few weeks ago Germany (among others) were looking at us thinking we were crazy. Thankfully we held our nerve and now Look at the reversal in fortunes. Surely the penny will drop at some point (although I've been saying that for so long now I'm not sure it actually ever will!).
The government held their nerve and should be credited for doing so in the light of some hysterics from the likes of the BBC and independent SAGE.
Regarding the penny dropping; i am sure it has with most people but some will not admit that as it does not suit their call for lockdowns and restrictions to enable them to carry on working from home.
 

MikeWM

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In light of this report from Germany, I don't think the argument we're somehow our more lax around covid spreading has merit anymore (if it did before):

Drosten is more-or-less the German equivalent of Fauci (or Ferguson, just without the bad modelling); to be blunt I wouldn't believe a word he says.

That said, the case rates in Germany do appear to be rather exploding. Shows yet again just how useless vaccine passports - and masks (proper ones, at that) - are in stopping this virus from spreading. No doubt their attempted solution will be to extend vaccine passports and add more masks.
 

Scotrail314209

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I second the posts about the flu being on the rise over winter, I've had an absolutely horrific cold since Sunday which shows no signs of going away soon.

Haven't missed it.
 

kristiang85

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I totally agree. A few weeks ago Germany (among others) were looking at us thinking we were crazy. Thankfully we held our nerve and now Look at the reversal in fortunes. Surely the penny will drop at some point (although I've been saying that for so long now I'm not sure it actually ever will!).

There has to be a point soon where a European country realises that the financial and social cost of restrictions l, mitigations and testing are not proportionate to the risk of COVID, and healthcare energy and resources will be much better used on other conditions.

In the UK especially we are entering the endemic stage, and if we keep up this level of testing we will have the same up and down figures for years and years. Are we really going to keep pouring money into that endless pit?

Once one country realises this, others should follow pretty quickly. However, it's now nearly a year since the vaccination programme started and we still suffer all this nonsense. So I'm not too hopeful yet.
 

scarby

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There has to be a point soon where a European country realises that the financial and social cost of restrictions l, mitigations and testing are not proportionate to the risk of COVID, and healthcare energy and resources will be much better used on other conditions.

In the UK especially we are entering the endemic stage, and if we keep up this level of testing we will have the same up and down figures for years and years. Are we really going to keep pouring money into that endless pit?

Once one country realises this, others should follow pretty quickly. However, it's now nearly a year since the vaccination programme started and we still suffer all this nonsense. So I'm not too hopeful yet.
I think we are at the point in Sweden, where people who are fully vaccinated are not even expected to get tested if they have symptoms - just to stay at home.

But mask use here in Sweden has always been low and has now dropped to near, though not quite, non-existent, and I haven't seen this following quickly into many other European countries, where there are still plenty of loopy face mask requirements.
 

MikeWM

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Meanwhile the ever-helpful Guardian tells us - yet again - that the NHS is at 'breaking point':

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-and-putting-patients-at-risk-say-nhs-leaders
The health service has hit “breaking point”, the leaders say, with record numbers of patients seeking care.

Nine in 10 NHS chief executives, chairs and directors have reported this week that the pressures on their organisation have become unsustainable. The same proportion is sounding “alarm bells” over staffing, with the lack of doctors, nurses and other health workers putting lives of patients at risk.

I'm sure the announcement that NHS workers will be required to be vaccinated by April - or be sacked - is going to help that situation immensely.

The NHS beds crisis is now so serious that as many as one in five beds in some hospitals are occupied by patients who are medically fit to be discharged, the Guardian was told. In most cases that is because there is no care package available to enable them to leave hospital.

I'm sure the sacking of around 40,000 workers in the care sector - this week! - for being unvaccinated will help that situation immensely too.

Interestingly the article doesn't mention 'Covid' once, or demand we move to 'plan B'.
 

kristiang85

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Meanwhile the ever-helpful Guardian tells us - yet again - that the NHS is at 'breaking point':

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-and-putting-patients-at-risk-say-nhs-leaders


I'm sure the announcement that NHS workers will be required to be vaccinated by April - or be sacked - is going to help that situation immensely.



I'm sure the sacking of around 40,000 workers in the care sector - this week! - for being unvaccinated will help that situation immensely too.

Interestingly the article doesn't mention 'Covid' once, or demand we move to 'plan B'.

Maybe the Guardian have realised they've written this same story every winter for the last 20 years?
 

MikeWM

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Maybe the Guardian have realised they've written this same story every winter for the last 20 years?

Perhaps so (though self-awareness doesn't exactly seem to be one of their strengths).

Problem is that this year, the ingredients are all there for a rather nasty crisis:

- Fewer beds due to 'covid restrictions'
- Many beds blocked due to the crisis in care homes, which is about to get significantly worse
- Many people presenting with advanced diseases which should have been discovered/treated earlier but weren't due to lockdowns
- Many people presenting at A&E with minor ailments that they think are more serious because they've been spooked by 20 months of fear
- Staff busy implementing the vaccine program
- People requiring treatment due to vaccine injury (we can debate how rare or otherwise these are, but they certainly exist)
- A&E acting as a GP in too many cases because too many GPs are still impossible to see

and now to add to all that

- Staff who may already be looking for other jobs, or not giving 100% to their job, because they are going to be fired in April.
 

adc82140

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There most definitely is an NHS crisis. Circa 8000 "Covid patients" can't helping, but it's certainly not the primary cause. That's no more than normal winter pressures. But of course flu is worse this year because we artificially held it back last year. Also, many more complex advanced diseases such as some cancers are appearing, which are taking a lot of resources to treat. Normally they'd have been caught earlier. This is the cancer timebomb I was going on about last year.

Edit @MikeWM posted the same time as I did. Great minds think alike!
 

initiation

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Meanwhile in no-vaccine passport and mask mandate England, cases have now been declining for 18 days....The longest period of decline since February.

It seems that largely whatever we do in terms of ongoing restrictions is mostly just fiddling around the edges.
Even if you do believe the estrictions work, it seems all they have done is pushed Germany's peak further into the depths of winter.
 

The Ham

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- People requiring treatment due to vaccine injury (we can debate how rare or otherwise these are, but they certainly exist)

In the week to the 27th October there was less than 3,000 yellow card reports.

However I would imagine that fairly few of those would actually need to use NHS services beyond maybe taking to a GP.

More data can be found here:

 

MikeWM

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In the week to the 27th October there was less than 3,000 yellow card reports.

Given that prior to this there were about 20,000 yellow card reports submitted each year *for all medicines and vaccines combined* - ie. about 400 a week - that seems rather high.
 

Bikeman78

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I'm sure the announcement that NHS workers will be required to be vaccinated by April - or be sacked - is going to help that situation immensely.
If we can wait until April, why bother at all? Some senior people within the NHS have cautioned against mandatory vaccines because they fear a mass exodus which will do more harm than letting unvaccinated people carry on working. Holding off until April achieves very little unless they can all be replaced by September in time for the next autumn/winter crisis.
 

greyman42

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I'm sure the announcement that NHS workers will be required to be vaccinated by April - or be sacked - is going to help that situation immensely.
If they just get vaccinated then the problem will be solved.

- Staff who may already be looking for other jobs, or not giving 100% to their job, because they are going to be fired in April.
Not if they get vaccinated, I do not understand the logic behind their reluctance.
 

abn444

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Not if they get vaccinated, I do not understand the logic behind their reluctance.
Why should they be forced to have an experimental medical procedure (and yes it is experimental, it's only "approved" on an emergency approval)? Especially as it doesn't stop people spreading or catching it, plus those or the front line are more likely to see the side effects
 

87electric

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If they just get vaccinated then the problem will be solved.


Not if they get vaccinated, I do not understand the logic behind their reluctance.
If you yourself, in the future, are admitted to hospital with a serious condition and need treatment, will you deny yourself treatment from unvaccinated expert medical staff?
 

Watershed

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Not sure if it's best posted here or on another thread, but Upper Austria is imposing a lockdown on the unvaccinated, with threats there will be "spot checks" to make sure anyone who is out and about is vaccinated or is on "essential" business.

I don't think anyone can credibly claim that vaccines are "optional" under those circumstances.

It makes for chilling reading, if only because it's a policy other European countries will inevitably copy. And that may potentially include parts of the UK...
 

Yew

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Given that prior to this there were about 20,000 yellow card reports submitted each year *for all medicines and vaccines combined* - ie. about 400 a week - that seems rather high.
Equally, not many of those vaccines will have been given 107 million doses.
 

MikeWM

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Equally, not many of those vaccines will have been given 107 million doses.

Indeed, and there may be all manner of explanations for these stats (closer than usual attention paid, increased knowledge of the system, etc.)

Nevertheless, in the 50 years of the yellow card system to the end of 2020, there had been 1 million reports in total, covering every medicine prescribed and vaccine administered in those 50 years.

In 2021 so far, there have been over 300,000 reports relating just to Covid vaccines.

That should raise an eyebrow, at least.
 

Red Onion

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Not sure if it's best posted here or on another thread, but Upper Austria is imposing a lockdown on the unvaccinated, with threats there will be "spot checks" to make sure anyone who is out and about is vaccinated or is on "essential" business.

I don't think anyone can credibly claim that vaccines are "optional" under those circumstances.

It makes for chilling reading, if only because it's a policy other European countries will inevitably copy. And that may potentially include parts of the UK...

I can’t see that beyond the paywall but it sounds absolutely frightening that is where we are going. A year ago this was all a “conspiracy theory” and now it is very much real. There is something very very sinister going on now and I wonder what it is. And will we ever return to a normal society…
 

greyman42

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I can’t see that beyond the paywall but it sounds absolutely frightening that is where we are going. A year ago this was all a “conspiracy theory” and now it is very much real. There is something very very sinister going on now and I wonder what it is. And will we ever return to a normal society…
As far as my lifestyle is concerned, i am already back to normal. What makes you think we are not back to normal?
 

Bayum

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If you yourself, in the future, are admitted to hospital with a serious condition and need treatment, will you deny yourself treatment from unvaccinated expert medical staff?
Depends where you are. If you’re in a care home you may take that point seriously. If you’re on a chemo care or transplant ward you may care, particularly if you then get COVID.
 
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